Competition in banking and the lending channel: Evidence from bank-level data in Asia and Latin America

This paper examines how banking competition affects the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel. We apply a two-step estimation procedure using bank-level panel data for commercial banks in 10 Asian and 10 Latin American countries during the period from 1996 to 2006. In the first step we measure the degree of banking competition by applying the methodology proposed by Panzar and Rosse (1987). In the second step we estimate a loan growth equation where the explanatory variables include the Panzar–Rosse measure of banking competition. The estimation results provide consistent evidence that increased competition in the banking sector weakens the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel. This is especially true for banks in Latin American countries and banks of small size, low liquidity, and low capitalization. We also discuss the policy implications of the main findings of this paper.     

Foreign bank penetration and the lending channel in emerging economies: Evidence from bank-level panel data

This paper examines the main implications of recently increasing foreign bank penetration on bank lending as a channel of monetary policy transmission in emerging economies. Using a dynamic panel model of loan growth, we investigate the loan granting behavior of 1273 banks in the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe during the period from 1996 to 2003. Applying the pooled OLS, system GMM, and panel VAR estimators, we find consistent evidence that foreign banks are less responsive to monetary shocks in host countries, as they adjust their outstanding loan portfolios and interest rates to a lesser extent than domestic private banks, independent of their liquidity, capitalization, size, efficiency, and credit risk, and although there exists a bank lending channel in the emerging economies, it is declining in strength due to the increased level of foreign bank penetration. We also explore possible driving factors for the different responses of foreign and domestic banks to monetary policy shocks by investigating foreign banks’ different behavior during banking crises and tranquil periods, the effects of mode of entry to host countries, the home-country effects, and the response of foreign banks from OECD countries vs. all foreign countries including non-OECD countries. We suggest the access of foreign banks to funding from parent banks through internal capital markets as the most convincing explanation.     

Bank mergers and acquisitions in emerging markets: evidence from Asia and Latin America

Following a global wave of consolidation in the banking industry, this study analyses 132 mergers and acquisitions (M&As) involving banks in emerging markets in Asia and Latin America between 1998 and 2009. An event study measures the change in shareholder value for acquirers and targets; and a multivariate regression identifies the drivers of the change in shareholder value for acquirers. On average M&As create shareholder value for target firms, while acquirer firms do not lose shareholder value. Geographical diversification creates shareholder value for acquirers. Acquirer shareholders benefit from the acquisition of underperforming targets; from transactions settled by cash rather than exchange of equity; and from government-instigated M&A transactions.     

Consolidation in banking and the lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from Asia and Latin America

This paper examines the relationship between increased consolidation in banking and monetary policy transmission in eighteen Asian and Latin American economies, using bank-level data from 1996 to 2006. Our results provide consistent evidence that as concentration in banking increases, the bank lending channel is weakened, leading the monetary policy transmission mechanism to be less effective. We also investigate how this relationship between concentration and the strength of the lending channel depends on bank-specific characteristics. Using bank-level balance sheet and income statement data allows us, first, to better identify the effects of banking consolidation on the supply-side bank lending channel from those of the demand-side interest rate channel, and second, to test for any systematic differences in the impact of consolidation on monetary policy transmission across banks of different size and financial strength. We also discuss potential explanations for and policy implications of the main findings of this paper.     

Financial liberalisation,crisis, and restructuring: A comparative study of bank performance and bank governance in South East Asia

This paper examines the impact of changes in bank governance on bank performance for a sample of commercial banks operating in SE Asia between 1990 and 2003. We identify bank governance in terms of bank ownership and measure bank performance as rank order alternative profit efficiency, technical change, and productivity. The period was characterised by financial deregulation, the Asian crisis and bank restructuring programmes. To resolve financial distress, SE Asian authorities implemented inter alia bank privatisation programmes and widened access for foreign ownership. Our results tend to support bank privatisation and the repeal of state ownership on economic grounds. We suggest the potential benefits of foreign ownership may take longer to be realised. For domestic private-owned banks, the challenge is improving bank efficiency.     

Systemically important banks and financial stability: The case of Latin America

This paper addresses the issue on how bank size and market concentration affect performance and risks in 17 Latin American countries between 2001 and 2008. The objective is to evaluate whether a too-big-to-fail behavior has been present in the region. Surprisingly, we do not find evidence to support a higher fragility of large Latin American banks. Our results show that systemically important financial institutions appear to outperform others in terms of both cost and profit without the need of taking more risks. This result holds even in concentrated markets, i.e., where there are few dominant banks and many others with small size in relation to the market. A highly unequal banking market in terms of assets, however, is detrimental for the performance of smaller banks and it also decreases stability of the whole system. We conclude that regulators should deal with market concentration by reducing the size gap between large and small banks, instead of dealing specifically with systemically important banks.     

Bank risk,competition and bank connectedness with firms: A literature review

The outbreak of the 2007–2009 financial crisis and of the European sovereign debt crisis again raised questions about the vulnerability and the behaviour of banking institutions. The unconventional monetary policies that followed have flattened the yield curve and created a low interest rates environment. This can give rise to risk-taking behaviour from banks and can therefore undermine the stability of the banking system with negative impact of the credit supply, corporate investment and real economy. This article proposes a literature review on the main determinants of bank lending and risk-taking decisions, going through the competition in the banking market, the bank connectedness with firms and the role of monetary and banking authorities. The systemic risk concept is also discussed as well as its drivers and potential measures that should be monitored by prudential authorities in order to preserve financial stability.     

The dampening effect of bank foreign liabilities on monetary policy: Revisiting monetary cooperation in East Asia

This paper addresses the cost of formal monetary cooperation from the perspective of monetary policy effectiveness. As banks tend to borrow from abroad in foreign currencies to fund domestic lending, monetary policy may have a reduced effect on the credit market and the economy. Results derived from bank level data in East Asia indicate that bank foreign liabilities significantly reduce the effectiveness of the credit channel of monetary policy, implying a relatively low cost of giving up monetary autonomy.     

Suspension of payments, bank failures, and the nonbank public's losses

We present evidence on the effects of suspensions of payments from an episode that is close to a controlled experiment for examining those effects. In 1861, about 44% of the banks in Wisconsin closed, 81% of the banks in Illinois closed, and noteholders suffered substantial losses. The historical record suggests that an effective suspension of payments in Wisconsin but not in Illinois may explain the difference. Our statistical evidence indicates that the suspension of payments increased the probability of a bank remaining open by about 21 percentage points and decreased noteholders’ losses by about 14 cents per dollar.     

The impact of macroprudential policies in Latin America: An empirical analysis using credit registry data

This paper summarises the results of a joint research project by five central banks in Latin America countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) to evaluate the effectiveness of macroprudential tools and their interaction with monetary policy. Using meta-analysis techniques, we summarise the results of a common empirical framework based on confidential bank-loan data. The main conclusions are that (i) macroprudential policies have been quite effective in stabilising credit cycles. The propagation of the effects to credit growth is more rapid for policies aimed at curbing the cycle than for policies aimed at fostering resilience; and (ii) macroprudential tools have a greater effect on credit growth when reinforced by the use of monetary policy.     

Bank incentives and suboptimal lending decisions: Evidence from the valuation effect of bank loan announcements in Japan

Using a sample of bank loan announcements in Japan, we examine whether or not banks have incentives to engage in suboptimal lending that results in wealth transfer from the banks to the borrowing firms. We find that abnormal returns for borrowing firms are significantly positive, but those for lending banks are sometimes significantly negative. Furthermore, the announcement returns for borrowing firms are negatively related to those for lending banks, especially when poorly performing firms borrow from financially healthy (low-risk) banks. Our results suggest that the positive valuation effect of bank loan announcements for borrowing firms is mainly due to a wealth transfer from lending banks.     

拉美和东亚国家(地区)在东亚金融危机后的经济恢复比较

1997～1998年的东亚金融危机给世界经济带来了巨大冲击,尤其是对东亚和拉美新兴市场国家和地区的经济造成了很大的破坏作用。本文试图对这两个区域危机后的经济恢复情况进行比较。首先,通过主成分分析法对16个国家和地区危机后6年的宏观经济指标进行了综合评估,实证结果表明,危机后的恢复程度存在着较大的差异和地域特征。接着本文对可能导致各国在危机后经济恢复差异的原因进行了实证研究,发现经济发展模式、储蓄率和外债负担等对原因的解释力较强。最后,本文对实证结果的政策含义进行了阐述。     

The use of bank lines of credit in corporate liquidity management: A review of empirical evidence

This paper reviews empirical evidence on the use of bank lines of credit as a source of corporate liquidity. Traditional explanation for lines of credit is that they provide insurance against liquidity shocks, in much the same as way hoarding cash does. However, recent empirical research suggests that access to lines of credit is contingent on the credit quality of the borrower as well as the financial condition of the lender. These findings suggest that lines of credit are an imperfect substitute for cash as a source of corporate liquidity.     

Ownership and technical efficiency of microfinance institutions: Empirical evidence from Latin America

By using stochastic frontier analysis, this article examines the technical efficiency of different types of microfinance institutions in Latin America. In particular, it tests whether differences in technical efficiency, both intra- and interfirm, can be explained by differences in ownership. With a focus on non-governmental organizations, cooperatives and credit unions, non-bank financial intermediaries, and banks, the data set contains 1681 observations from a panel of 315 institutions operating in 18 Latin American countries. The results show that non-governmental organizations and cooperatives have much lower interfirm and intrafirm technical efficiencies than non-bank financial intermediaries and banks, which indicates the importance of ownership type for technical efficiency.     

Understanding the rise and decline of the Japanese main bank system: The changing effects of bank rent extraction

This paper shows how main bank rent extraction affects corporate decisions about investment and financing during financial regulatory reform. Our model predicts that limited loanable funds can initially contain main bank controlled overinvestment, even when new equity is available to the firm. Abundant funds facilitate overinvestment to the detriment of firm profitability. A shift of control rights back to the firm due to financial deregulation produces an “equity for upside potential and bank debt for downside risk” bias against the banks. A stock market and real estate boom in Japan made it harder than ever for the banks to diversify risk. The insights from this analysis help explain why Japan’s main bank system was beneficial in the (capital constrained) postwar period but became harmful during the (capital abundant and even bubbly) 1980s, and why the adverse shocks of the post-deregulation 1990s had such severe effects on the banking system.     

Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America

The purpose of this study is firstly to test for the existence of periodically collapsing stock price bubbles in Asian and Latin American emerging stock markets for the period 1990–2009. We use the new non-cointegration test developed by Taylor and Peel (1998) with the Residuals-Augmented Least Squares (RALS) method of Im (1996) and Im and Schmidt (2008) for monthly data of price indexes and dividends. The results show that the hypothesis of formation of bubbles cannot be rejected for all of the studied emerging stock markets. This evidence implies that the co-integration relation between the prices and the dividends is not always supported, indicating that the stock prices do not reflect their fundamental values in the emerging stock markets. We then link speculative bubbles with macroeconomic and financial factors, which is an interesting contribution of this study. The degree of equity market openness is found to be the key factor, positively related to the formation of speculative bubbles in these markets.     

Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity markets of Latin America and Asia

This study examines the potential profit of ten Variable Length Moving Average (VMA) technical trading rules in ten emerging equity markets in Latin America and Asia from January 1982 through April 1995. The average difference in buy − sell returns after trading costs for each rule and country are compared to a buy and hold strategy. Taiwan, Thailand and Mexico emerge as markets where technical trading strategies may be profitable. We find no strong evidence of profitability for the other markets. However, we find that 82 out of the 100 country–trading rule combinations tested in ten emerging markets, disregarding their statistical significance, correctly predict the direction of changes in the return series. These findings may provide investors with important asset allocation information.     

Resolving the deposit dilemma: A new DEA bank efficiency model

One of the weaknesses of current bank efficiency models is a disagreement as to the role of deposits in the bank production process. Some models view deposits as an input, while others view them as an output. Such disparity of approaches results in inconsistent efficiency estimates. In this study we propose an alternative Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) bank efficiency model that treats deposits as an intermediate product, thus emphasizing the dual role of deposits in the bank production process. Consequently, the effect of the amount of deposits on bank efficiency depends on the efficiency at both stages of the bank production process. The main advantage of our model is that it does not require a researcher to make a judgment call as to whether having more (production approach) or less (intermediation approach) deposits is “better” for bank efficiency. Our unified framework has the potential to produce more consistent efficiency estimates.     

Malmquist-type indices in the presence of negative data: An application to bank branches

In this paper we develop an index and an indicator of productivity change that can be used with negative data. For that purpose the range directional model (RDM), a particular case of the directional distance function, is used for computing efficiency in the presence of negative data. We use RDM efficiency measures to arrive at a Malmquist-type index, which can reflect productivity change, and we use RDM inefficiency measures to arrive at a Luenberger productivity indicator, and relate the two. The productivity index and indicator are developed relative to a fixed meta-technology and so they are referred to as a meta-Malmquist index and meta-Luenberger indicator. We also address the fact that VRS technologies are used for computing the productivity index and indicator (a requirement under negative data), which raises issues relating to the interpretability of the index. We illustrate how the meta-Malmquist index can be used, not only for comparing the performance of a unit in two time periods, but also for comparing the performance of two different units at the same or different time periods. The proposed approach is then applied to a sample of bank branches where negative data were involved. The paper shows how the approach yields information from a variety of perspectives on performance which management can use.     

Towards a more accurate measure of foreign bank entry and its impact on domestic banking performance: The case of China

This paper examines the impact of foreign bank entry on China’s banking performance. An innovation in this study is that it constructs a spatially disaggregated measure of foreign bank presence, employing location data of foreign bank branches. Using this measure, the study examines the relationship between foreign bank presence and domestic banking performance in China. The results show that the spatially disaggregated measure not only improves the assessment of the impact of foreign bank presence but also resolves unexplained discrepancies found in existing empirical studies contingent on aggregate measures. Importantly, the study provides strong empirical evidence that foreign bank entry is supportive of a more competitive and efficient banking industry in China.