Central bank financial strength and inflation: Is there a robust link?

Central bank financial strength has not been a fundamental issue for a substantial period of time. However, recent theoretical and empirical studies argue that central banks need to maintain a sufficient level of financial strength to perform their functions effectively and to achieve monetary policy objectives. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between central bank financial strength and inflation using an unbalanced panel data set for a sample of selected advanced and emerging countries. We observe a statistically significant and robust negative relationship between central bank financial strength and inflation. This relationship is robust in the presence of other determinants of inflation and for alternative estimation methods. Our results have important implications for policy makers and central bankers. Particularly, our results suggest that avoiding persistent losses and maintaining the health of the central bank balance sheet remain vital pre-conditions for desirable policy outcomes of a central bank.     

The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?

The financial stability of the eurozone depends on its macroeconomic stability and vice versa. We construct a macro DSGE model of the eurozone and its two main regions, the North and the South, with the aim of matching the macro facts of these economies by indirect inference and using the resulting empirically-based model to assess possible new policy regimes that could maintain financial stability. The model we have found to fit the facts suggests that substantial gains in stability and consumer welfare are possible if the fiscal authority in each region is given the freedom to respond to its own economic situation. Further gains could come with the restoration of monetary independence to the two regions, in effect creating a second ‘southern euro’ bloc. Enhanced fiscal flexibility increases fluctuations in debt and deficit ratios to GDP while keeping average ratios stable, maintaining solvency. A reformed Stability and Growth Pact could be limited to monitoring solvency.     

Communication and financial supervision: How does disclosure affect market stability?

The impact of authorities’ information disclosure on social welfare and market stability has become a widely debated topic since the contribution of Morris and Shin (2002). Despite several theoretical works, this strand of literature remains void of empirical contributions. By assessing how disclosure of stress test results influences market risk perception, we provide factual evidence on how authorities’ enhanced communication affects financial markets’ stability. Our results provide empirical evidence to support Faria-e-Castro et al.’s (2017) theoretical findings, demonstrating that severe stress tests, if enacted in countries with credible fiscal capacity such as the U.S., can lead agents to revise their risk estimations downwards for all banks, notwithstanding their performance in the exercise.     

How important is the financial sector to price indices in an inflation targeting regime? An empirical analysis of the UK and the US

This paper investigates whether there are benefits in terms of higher economic stability from incorporating stock prices into the price index targeted by the central banks. It also looks into the question of whether central banks should use stock prices as a component of the output stability index and how the index can be constructed. An optimization technique is employed to estimate weights for the various sectoral prices. The obtained weights, which depend on sectoral parameters, differ from those used in the construction of the consumer price index, CPI. Using data from the UK and the US, our analysis demonstrates that in comparison to the CPI, our measure of inflation leads to a higher output stability. Thus, in an inflation-targeting monetary policy environment, it is important to adopt a broader inflation benchmark than the CPI for the general macroeconomic stability.     

Financial regulation and financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does financial stability play a moderating role?

This study examines the impact of financial regulation on financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa, considering the moderating role of financial stability. By analysing the relationship between financial inclusion and the most prominent macro-prudential regulation (capital adequacy), we find that tightening prudential regulations could negatively impact access to finance, thereby conflicting with Sub-Saharan African economies’ financial inclusion goals. More specifically, the capital adequacy requirement tremendously reduces banks’ capacity to provide financial services and this could lead to credit rationing thereby reducing financial inclusion. The results also indicate that, the interaction of financial regulation with financial stability positively impacts financial inclusion. Thus, financial stability augments financial regulation to have an affirmative impact on financial inclusion. The practical implications of this paper are that, one of the ways central governments and policy makers in Sub-Saharan African countries can increase and get the most out of financial inclusion is to formulate policies targeted at reducing capital adequacy requirements of financial institutions and other constraints that limit the operations and efficiency of financial institutions. Such policies should also aim at creating an enabling environment to promote financial stability.     

Is it costly to be both shariah compliant and socially responsible?

Positive ethics associated with socially responsible investments (SRI) is challenging the limits of Islamic investments' conservative approach to promote corporate social responsibility. In this study, we test the integration of social performance measures (companies the most virtuous or high-rated in terms of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues) in Islamic portfolios using KLD social ratings. We seek to determine the financial price of complying both to Islamic investment and SRI principles. To do so, we measure the financial performance of self-composed Islamic portfolios with varying ESG scores. The results indicate no adverse effects on returns due to the application of ESG screens on shariah-compliant stocks during the 2007–2011 periods while reporting substantially higher performance for the portfolios with good records in governance, products, diversity, and environment issues. On the opposite, a negative performance is associated with an SRI strategy of disengagement from shariah-compliant stocks with community and human rights controversies. Our performance measures are controlled for market sensitivity, investment style, momentum factor, and sector exposure.     

Is it Necessary to Ration Health Care?

Although there have been restrictions on access to health care since the inception of the National Health Service (NHS), there has been increasing debate on rationing and priority-setting following the changes introduced from 1991. Much of this debate has been fuelled by the fact that local Health Authorities (HAs), working with limited budgets to purchase health care services for their local population, must set priorities in order to remain within their budget. Some commentators go further and argue that health care rationing is both necessary and inevitable. Others suggest that acceptance of the necessity of rationing may be self-defeating, and question the underlying assumptions. This article reviews some of the arguments and asks whether health care rationing is really necessary.     

Price discovery on traded inflation expectations: does the financial crisis matter?

We analyze contributions of different markets, related by an approximate arbitrage relationship, to price discovery on traded inflation expectations and how it changed during the financial crisis. We use a new high-frequency data-set on inflation-indexed and nominal government bonds as well as inflation swaps to calculate information shares of break-even inflation rates in the euro area and the USA. In the euro area, for maturities up to 5 years new information comes from both the swap and the bond markets. For longer maturities, the swap market provides less and less information in the euro area. In the USA, the bond market dominates the price discovery process for all maturities. The severe financial crisis that spread out in Autumn 2008 drove a wedge between bond and swap break-even inflation rates in both currencies. Price discovery ceased to take place on the swap market. Disruptions coming from the short-end of the market even separated price formation on both segments for maturities of up to 6 years in the USA. Against the backdrop of the most severe financial crisis in decades, contributions to price formation concentrated a lot more on the presumably safest financial instrument: government bonds.     

Is it time to reboot welfare economics? Overview

The contributions of economists have long included both positive explanations of how economic systems work and normative recommendations for how they could and should work better. In recent decades, economics has taken a strong empirical turn as well as having a greater appreciation of the importance of the complexities of real-world human behaviour, institutions, the strengths and failures of markets, and interlinkages with other systems, including politics, technology, culture and the environment. This shift has also brought greater relevance and pragmatism to normative economics. While this shift towards evidence and pragmatism has been welcome, it does not in itself answer the core question of what exactly constitutes ‘better’, and for whom, and how to manage inevitable conflicts and trade-offs in society. These have long been the core concerns of welfare economics. Yet, in the 1980s and 1990s, debates on welfare economics seemed to have become marginalised. The articles in this Fiscal Studies symposium engage with the question of how to revive normative questions as a central issue in economic scholarship.     

Adapting financial rationality: Is a new paradigm emerging?

We discuss the implications of an alternative to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). The AMH advances a theoretical basis for a new financial paradigm which can better model such phenomena as the recent financial crisis. The AMH regards the financial market order as evolving, tentative and defined by creative destruction in which trading strategies are introduced, mutate to survive, or face abandonment. The concept of investor rationality is less helpful than the distinction between investment strategies which are more or less well adapted to the prevailing market environment. We outline how a more systematic and grounded basis for behavioural finance can be developed in line with the latter approach. Based on this we develop testable hypotheses allowing the AMH to be distinguished from the EMH. Finally, we discuss how the AMH can aid our understanding of important issues in finance. A central insight is that in the survival of richest, as opposed to fittest, implied by the AMH there is much room for misallocation of resources as price and value uncouple. In this shifting financial market order the regulatory State features as a further market in which the vote market verifies or disrupts market conditions.     

Is there a tradeoff between bank competition and financial fragility?

We use a model of mean-shifting investment technologies to study the relationship between market structure, risk taking and social welfare in lending markets. Introduction of loan market competition is shown to reduce lending rates and to generate higher investments without increasing the equilibrium bankruptcy risk of borrowers. Hence, there need not be a tradeoff between lending market competition and financial fragility. Such a tradeoff may not emerge either when banks compete by conditioning interest rates on investment volumes irrespectively of whether credit rationing takes place or not.     

Is knowledge powerful? Evidence from financial education and earnings quality

Previous studies emphasize the importance of investor legal protection on financial reporting quality. We argue that investors’ awareness of their legal rights and understanding of the financial products play complementary roles. Financially well-educated investors are more likely to be able to understand investment-related information and less likely to be tricked, hence can pressure managers to eschew misappropriate behavior. This paper explores the role of investor financial education as a corporate governance mechanism in the context of earnings quality. Using data from 43 countries during the sample period of 1994–2012, we find that earnings quality is higher in countries with better financial education after controlling for various institutional environments. Interestingly, the positive effect of financial education on earnings quality exists only in countries with stronger investor legal protection, indicating a complementary role of financial education. Our study provides evidence on the role of financial education in investor protection.     

Time series momentum: Is it there?

Time series momentum (TSM) refers to the predictability of the past 12-month return on the next one-month return and is the focus of several recent influential studies. This paper shows that asset-by-asset time series regressions reveal little evidence of TSM, both in- and out-of-sample. While the t-statistic in a pooled regression appears large, it is not statistically reliable as it is less than the critical values of parametric and nonparametric bootstraps. From an investment perspective, the TSM strategy is profitable, but its performance is virtually the same as that of a similar strategy that is based on historical sample mean and does not require predictability. Overall, the evidence on TSM is weak, particularly for the large cross section of assets.     

Information sharing,credit booms and financial stability: Do developing economies differ from advanced countries?

This paper analyses the impact of credit information sharing on financial stability, drawing special attention to its interactions with credit booms. A probit estimation of financial vulnerability episodes—identified by jumps in the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans—is run for a sample of 159 countries divided into two sub-samples according to their level of development: 80 advanced or emerging economies and 79 less developed countries. The results show that: i) credit information sharing reduces financial fragility for both groups of countries; ii) for less developed countries, the main effect is the direct effect (reduction of NPL ratio once credit boom is controlled), suggesting a portfolio quality effect; iii) credit information sharing also mitigates the detrimental impact of a credit boom on financial fragility but this result holds only for advanced and emerging countries and for household credit booms; and iv) the depth of information sharing has a negative impact on the likelihood of credit booms (but not the coverage of IS).     

The housing price boom of the late 1990s: Did inflation targeting matter?

The recent boom in the housing markets of most developed economies has spurred criticism that inflation targeting central banks may have neglected the build-up of financial imbalances. This paper provides a formal empirical test of such claims, using a standard program evaluation methodology to control for a possible bias due to self-selection into inflation targeting. We consider 17 industrial economies over the period 1980–2007, among which nine countries have targeted inflation at some point. We find robust evidence of a significant positive effect of inflation targeting on real house price growth and on the house price-to-rent ratio.     

Macroeconomic stability or financial stability: How are capital controls used? Insights from a new database

While the traditional objectives of capital controls were to address macroeconomic stability risks, a new “externalities view” has emerged prescribing their use to contain financial stability risks. In this context, our understanding of whether capital controls are used in practice to mitigate macroeconomic or financial stability remains limited. Using a novel database on high-frequency capital account regulations for 47 advanced and emerging economies from 2008 to 2020, this paper empirically assesses this question. Our main findings are that: (a) in emerging markets there is a strong association of capital controls on inflows to mitigate risks to macro stability but not financial stability risks; (b) in advanced economies there is a robust association between capital controls on inflows to lean against the buildup of financial stability but not macro stability risks; (c) banking sector flows, but not aggregate capital flows, are strongly associated with tightening capital controls on inflows in emerging markets; and (d) pooling advanced and emerging economies attenuates regression estimates and would lead to concluding that capital controls have weak association with both financial and macro stability motives. Our results can be rationalized by the greater capital flows, more volatile business cycles and stronger interaction between business and financial cycles in emerging markets, and the deeper asset markets found in advanced economies.     

Is there an optimal microcredit size to maximize the social and financial efficiencies of microfinance institutions?

Financial intermediation theory posits that a smaller loan size triggers a higher cost per dollar lent. This leads to question whether microfinance can become a self-sustainable industry. Hence, in microfinance innovations like loans without collateral, progressive loans, solidarity groups and relational lending are employed to reduce asymmetric information costs, adverse selection, and moral hazard while serving the poorest people. Crucially, we find a non-linear U-shaped effect of loan size on financial and social efficiencies. This reconciles the two opposite strands of the literature, aligning microfinance and banking central principles. The major implication of this study is that, unlike banking, microfinance institutions can grant small size loans while simultaneously obtaining high levels of financial and social efficiency. Indeed, our findings do not support the widely debated mission drift assumption since loan size does not generate a trade-off between financial and social outcomes. Therefore, loan size is a core management variable.     

Politicians and financial supervision unification outside the central bank: Why do they do it?

An increasing number of countries show a trend towards a certain degree of consolidation of powers in financial supervision, which has resulted in the establishment of unified regulators, that are different from the national central banks. By contrast a high involvement of the central bank in supervision seems to be correlated with a multi-authorities regime (central bank fragmentation effect). This paper, using a simple application of a general common agency game, sheds light on which conditions the politicians prefer when implementing an unified sector supervision outside the central bank. From a theoretical point of view the quality of public sector governance plays a crucial role in determining the supervision unification. Focusing on the behaviour of the “good” policymaker (helping hand type), it will prefer a unified financial authority that is different from the central bank if the correspondent welfare gains-linked to at least one of the three effects: moral hazard, conflict of interest, bureaucracy—are considered higher respect to the information losses. The “bad” policymaker (grabbing hand type) will choose the single financial authority if the financial industry likes it, and the central bank is not a captured one. On the other hand, the paper tests the model, confirming the robustness of the institutional position of the central bank in explaining the recent trend in supervision consolidation, with an empirical analysis performed with ordered functions on an updated dataset.     

How does corporate social responsibility affect financial performance,financial stability,and financial inclusion in the banking sector? Evidence from Pakistan

This paper examines the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the financial performance, financial inclusion, and financial stability of the banking sector, focusing on annual data for 20 Pakistani commercial banks for the period 2008–2017. The results suggest that CSR, as well as age and size, has a positive impact on all three factors. However, high levels of leverage reduce financial inclusion and financial stability, while financial inclusion is also negatively associated with the tangibility of assets.     

The inflation–output nexus: Empirical evidence from India,South Africa,and Brazil

In this paper we study the relationship between output and inflation for India, South Africa and Brazil, using the EGARCH model. For India and South Africa, we find evidence of: (1) the Cukierman and Meltzer hypothesis that inflation volatility raises inflation; (2) the Friedman hypothesis that inflation raises inflation volatility; and (3) the Black hypothesis that output volatility raises output growth, and that output volatility reduces inflation. For Brazil, we do not find any evidence of a systematic relationship between inflation and output growth.