Liquidity and asset pricing: Evidence from the Hong Kong stock market

This study investigates the role of liquidity in pricing stock returns in the Hong Kong stock market. Our results show that liquidity is an important factor for pricing returns in Hong Kong after taking well-documented asset pricing factors into consideration. The results are robust to adding portfolio residuals and higher moment factor in the factor models. The results are also robust to seasonality, and conditional-market tests. We also compare alternative factor models and find that the liquidity four-factor model (market excess return, size, book-to-market ratio, and liquidity) is the best model to explain stock returns in the Hong Kong stock market, while the momentum factor is not found to be priced.     

Risk,uncertainty, and asset prices

We identify the relative importance of changes in the conditional variance of fundamentals (which we call “uncertainty”) and changes in risk aversion in the determination of the term structure, equity prices, and risk premiums. Theoretically, we introduce persistent time-varying uncertainty about the fundamentals in an external habit model. The model matches the dynamics of dividend and consumption growth, including their volatility dynamics and many salient asset market phenomena. While the variation in price–dividend ratios and the equity risk premium is primarily driven by risk aversion, uncertainty plays a large role in the term structure and is the driver of countercyclical volatility of asset returns.     

The asset growth effect: Insights from international equity markets

Firms with higher asset growth rates subsequently experience lower stock returns in international equity markets, consistent with the U.S. evidence. This negative effect of asset growth on returns is stronger in more developed capital markets and markets where stocks are more efficiently priced, but is unrelated to country characteristics representing limits to arbitrage, investor protection, and accounting quality. The evidence suggests that the cross-sectional relation between asset growth and stock return is more likely due to an optimal investment effect than due to overinvestment, market timing, or other forms of mispricing.     

Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes

The downside risk capital asset pricing model (DR-CAPM) can price the cross section of currency returns. The market-beta differential between high and low interest rate currencies is higher conditional on bad market returns, when the market price of risk is also high, than it is conditional on good market returns. Correctly accounting for this variation is crucial for the empirical performance of the model. The DR-CAPM can jointly rationalize the cross section of equity, equity index options, commodity, sovereign bond and currency returns, thus offering a unified risk view of these asset classes. In contrast, popular models that have been developed for a specific asset class fail to jointly price other asset classes.     

Disagreement and asset prices

How do differences of opinion affect asset prices? Do investors earn a risk premium when disagreement arises in the market? Despite their fundamental importance, these questions are among the most controversial issues in finance. In this paper, we use a novel data set that allows us to directly measure the level of disagreement among Wall Street mortgage dealers about prepayment speeds. We examine how disagreement evolves over time and study its effects on expected returns, return volatility, and trading volume in the mortgage-backed security market. We find that increased disagreement is associated with higher expected returns, higher return volatility, and larger trading volume. These results imply that there is a positive risk premium for disagreement in asset prices. We also show that volatility in and of itself does not lead to higher trading volume. Instead, only when disagreement arises in the market is higher uncertainty associated with more trading. Finally, we are able to distinguish empirically between two competing hypotheses regarding how information in markets gets incorporated into asset prices. We find that sophisticated investors appear to update their beliefs through a rational expectations mechanism when disagreement arises.     

Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets

In this paper we test whether mean reversion in stock market prices presents a different behavior in bull and bear markets. We date the US bull and bear periods using Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm. We examine the order of integration in the S&P 500 stock market index covering a daily period from August 1929 to December 2006 in bull and bear phases. Our results indicate the existence of different episodes of mean reversion, which mainly correspond to bull market periods.     

Margin requirements and equilibrium asset prices

This paper studies the effect of margin requirements on asset prices and trading volume in a general equilibrium asset pricing model where Epstein-Zin investors differ in their degree of risk aversion. Under the assumptions of unit intertemporal elasticity of substitution and zero net supply of riskless assets, I show analytically that binding margin requirements do not affect stock prices. This result stands in contrast to previous partial equilibrium analysis where fixed margin requirements increase the volatility of stock prices. In this framework, binding margin requirements induce a fall in the riskless rate, increase its volatility, and increase stock trading volume.     

Preference heterogeneity and asset prices: An exact solution

We introduce a general equilibrium model of a multi-agent, pure-exchange economy and find a set of conditions that enable us to obtain explicit closed-form solutions to the equilibrium interest rate, stock price, risk premium and stock market volatility when investors have heterogenous risk aversions. Because the market is dynamically complete, full risk sharing obtains and a representative agent can be constructed, though the risk aversion of this agent fluctuates over time with the state of the economy, as the relative wealth distribution of the individual investors changes. We show that preference heterogeneity can cause asset prices to be significantly more volatile than the underlying dividends and that it can lead to leverage-like effects in volatility, in the sense that volatility increases after stock-market declines.     

Disagreement,tastes, and asset prices

Standard asset pricing models assume that: (i) there is complete agreement among investors about probability distributions of future payoffs on assets; and (ii) investors choose asset holdings based solely on anticipated payoffs; that is, investment assets are not also consumption goods. Both assumptions are unrealistic. We provide a simple framework for studying how disagreement and tastes for assets as consumption goods can affect asset prices.     

Asset pricing: A tale of two days

We show that asset prices behave very differently on days when important macroeconomic news is scheduled for announcement. In addition to significantly higher average returns for risky assets on announcement days, return patterns are much easier to reconcile with standard asset pricing theories, both cross-sectionally and over time. On such days, stock market beta is strongly related to average returns. This positive relation holds for individual stocks, for various test portfolios, and even for bonds and currencies, suggesting that beta is after all an important measure of systematic risk. Furthermore, a robust risk–return trade-off exists on announcement days. Expected variance is positively related to future aggregated quarterly announcement day returns, but not to aggregated non-announcement day returns. We explore the implications of our findings in the context of various asset pricing models.     

Intergenerational risksharing and equilibrium asset prices

In the presence of overlapping generations, a social security system, with contingent taxes and benefits, can affect both asset prices and intergenerational risksharing. In a simple model with two risky factors of production—human capital, owned by the young, and physical capital, owned by all older generations—a social security system that optimally shares risks exposes future generations to a share of the risk in physical capital. Such a system reduces precautionary saving and increases the riskbearing capacity of the economy. Under plausible conditions it increases the riskless interest rate, and lowers the price and risk premium of physical capital.     

International asset pricing models and currency risk: Evidence from Finland 1970–2004

In this paper we investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Finnish stock market using conditional international asset pricing models. We take the view of a US investor. The estimation is conducted using a modified version of the multivariate GARCH framework of [De Santis, G., Gérard, B., 1998. How big is the premium for currency risk? Journal of Financial Economics 49, 375–412]. For a sample period from 1970 to 2004, we find the world risk to be time-varying. While local risk is not priced for the USA, the local component is significant and time-varying for Finland. Currency risk is priced in the Finnish market, but is not time-varying using the De Santis and Gérard specification. This suggests that the linear specification for the currency risk may not be adequate for non-free floating currencies.     

Noise-trading, costly arbitrage, and asset prices: Evidence from US closed-end funds

The behavior of US closed-end funds is very different from that of UK funds. There is no evidence that the US funds' discounts are constrained by arbitrage barriers, no evidence that higher expenses increase discounts and no evidence that replication risk increases discounts but strong evidence that noise-trader risk is priced. The differences between US and UK funds may be due to the fact that small investors dominate US funds while institutional investors dominate UK funds, or because the sample selection method for the UK funds chooses only funds that are relatively easy to arbitrage.     

A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns

In questioning Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi’s (2003) finding of an economically and statistically significant seasonal affective disorder (SAD) effect, Kelly and Meschke (2010) make errors of commission and omission. They misrepresent their empirical results, claiming that the SAD effect arises due to a “mechanically induced” effect that is non-existent, labeling the SAD effect a “turn-of-year” effect (when in fact their models and ours separately control for turn-of-year effects), and ignoring coefficient-estimate patterns that strongly support the SAD effect. Our analysis of their data shows, even using their low-power statistical tests, there is significant international evidence supporting the SAD effect. Employing modern, panel/time-series statistical methods strengthens the case dramatically. Additionally, Kelly and Meschke represent the finance, psychology, and medical literatures in misleading ways, describing some findings as opposite to those reported by the researchers themselves, and choosing selective quotes that could easily lead readers to a distorted understanding of these findings.     

Housing,consumption and asset pricing

This paper considers a consumption-based asset pricing model where housing is explicitly modeled both as an asset and as a consumption good. Nonseparable preferences describe households’ concern with composition risk, that is, fluctuations in the relative share of housing in their consumption basket. Since the housing share moves slowly, a concern with composition risk induces low frequency movements in stock prices that are not driven by news about cash flow. Moreover, the model predicts that the housing share can be used to forecast excess returns on stocks. We document that this indeed true in the data. The presence of composition risk also implies that the riskless rate is low which further helps the model improve on the standard CCAPM.     

Country-specific sentiment and security prices

I study the effect of country-specific sentiment on security prices. I provide evidence that a country’s popularity among Americans affects US investors’ demand for securities from that country and causes security prices to deviate from their fundamental values. Moreover, I find that country popularity is positively associated with the intensity of US cross-border mergers and acquisitions activity, suggesting that country popularity also affects firms’ investment decisions.     

Liquidity and initial public offering underpricing

Using eight measures of liquidity, and addressing the potential endogeneity of initial returns, we find underpricing generally increases the secondary market liquidity of IPOs over the first year of trading, irrespective of the horizon over which liquidity is measured. For two model specifications over the eight measures, fifteen regressions display signs consistent with higher underpricing increasing liquidity and thirteen of these are statistically significant. We also find higher initial returns are significantly negatively correlated with the probability of informed trade. Furthermore, the liquidity effects of underpricing survive the lockup date, suggesting they are not quickly dissipated.     

Investing in gold: Individual asset risk in the long run

This study examines gold’s contribution to portfolio risk over different time scales. The analysis is based on wavelet decompositions of the variances and covariances associated with a portfolio that includes gold, stocks, 10-year government bonds and three-month Treasury bills. The results suggest that gold provides the lowest contribution to portfolio risk only when considered over medium- and long-term investment horizons.     

Liquidity and stock returns: Evidence from a pure order-driven market using a new liquidity proxy

Liquidity has been found to be a determinant of stock returns in large hybrid quote-driven markets. Liquidity proxies have ranged from trade-based measures such as turnover rate to order-based measures such as the bid-ask spread. The relationship between return and liquidity in small pure order-driven markets is less clear, with different liquidity proxies yielding conflicting results. This study adds to the existing literature by considering the return-liquidity relationship on the Australian Stock Exchange, a small pure order-driven market, using a new liquidity measure, Weighted Order Value (WOV). Liquidity is found to be an important determinant of returns.     

From boom ‘til bust: How loss aversion affects asset prices

This article studies the impact of heterogeneous loss averse investors on asset prices. In very good states loss averse investors become gradually less risk averse as wealth rises above their reference point, pushing up equity prices. When wealth drops below the reference point the investors become risk seeking and demand for stocks increases drastically, eventually leading to a forced sell-off and stock market bust in bad states. Heterogeneity in reference points and initial wealth of the loss averse investors does not change the salient features of the equilibrium price process, such as a relatively high equity premium, high volatility and counter-cyclical changes in the equity premium.