Pitfalls in backtesting Historical Simulation VaR models

Historical Simulation (HS) and its variant, the Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), are the most popular Value-at-Risk forecast methods at commercial banks. These forecast methods are traditionally evaluated by means of the unconditional backtest. This paper formally shows that the unconditional backtest is always inconsistent for backtesting HS and FHS models, with a power function that can be even smaller than the nominal level in large samples. Our findings have fundamental implications in the determination of market risk capital requirements, and also explain Monte Carlo and empirical findings in previous studies. We also propose a data-driven weighted backtest with good power properties to evaluate HS and FHS forecasts. A Monte Carlo study and an empirical application with three US stocks confirm our theoretical findings. The empirical application shows that multiplication factors computed under the current regulatory framework are downward biased, as they inherit the inconsistency of the unconditional backtest.     

结售汇业务政策的演变及对商业银行风险管理的影响

结售汇业务是我国外汇指定银行开办的一项重要的外汇业务。改革开放以来,我国对外汇制度进行了多次改革与修订,结售汇业务政策也产生较大的变化。本文通过对历年来结售汇政策的变化要点进行梳理,分析政策变化对银行结售汇业务风险的影响,最后对银行如何控制结售汇业务风险提出了相关建议。     

How Banks' Value-at-Risk Disclosures Predict their Total and Priced Risk: Effects of Bank Technical Sophistication and Learning over Time

Using a sample of eight large commercial banks from 1994 to 2000, Jorion (2002) finds that banks' VaR disclosures for their trading portfolios predict trading income variability. We extend Jorion's findings using a larger sample of 17 banks from 1997 to 2002 reporting trading VaRs under FRR No. 48 (1997). We find that banks' trading VaRs have predictive power for trading income variability that increases with bank technical sophistication and over time. We find that banks' trading VaRs have predictive power for a bank-wide measure of total risk, return variability, and for two bank-wide measures of priced risk, beta and realized returns.     

商业银行大宗商品结构贸易融资风险评价研究

随着全球经济金融一体化的深入,大宗商品贸易发展迅猛,向商业银行在其实践操作中的风险控制提出了挑战。本文着重探讨商业银行大宗商品结构贸易融资的风险评估,从大宗商品结构贸易融资的风险入手,介绍了风险评估的理论基础,并采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法建立风险评估体系。     

商业银行转型与市场风险管理面临的挑战

由传统业务模式向现代业务模式转型,是商业银行保持可持续发展的必然要求和趋势,但商业银行在推进业务转型中可能遇到一定的合规与市场风险,值得监管者和风险管理部门关注,文章基于当前商业银行内部业务运作与外部市场环境的现状,以理财业务、债券承销业务与交易全球化为代表具体分析了其中的风险点,并提出相关对策建议。     

Backtesting value-at-risk based on tail losses

Extreme losses caused by leverage and financial derivatives highlight the need to backtest Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on the sizes of tail losses, because the risk measure currently used disregards losses beyond the VaR boundary. While Basel II backtests VaR by counting the number of exceptions, this paper proposes to use the saddlepoint technique by summing the sizes of tail losses. Monte Carlo simulations show that the technique is extremely accurate and powerful, even for small samples. Empirical applications for the proposed backtest find substantial downside tail risks in S&P 500, and demonstrate that risk models which account for jumps, skewed and fat-tailed distributions failed to capture the tail risk during the 1987 stock market crash. Finally, the saddlepoint technique is used to derive a multiplication factor for any risk capital requirement that is responsive to the sizes of tail losses.     

关于国有商业银行信贷资产风险管理的战略思考

加强信贷资产的风险管理水平,提高资产质量,防范和化解不良资产是国有商业银行增强赢利能力、提高竞争力的重要手段,也是国有商业银行目前的首要任务.本文从经济金融全球化对国有商业银行信贷风险管理的影响出发,提出国有商业银行要树立正确的风险管理观念,并设计了国有商业银行信贷风险管理的若干原则、总体框架和战略步骤.为配合国有商业银行信贷资产风险管理战略的实施,作者还提出了以下改革举措,包括:调整信贷内部结构;再造信贷管理流程;创新不良资产处置方式;正确选择和安排财务策略;建立信息和法律支撑平台、激励和处罚体系及信贷风险文化等.     

市场模式、政府模式与城商行流动性风险化解—一个三期博弈的分析框架

分析城商行流动性风险化解中的政府手段和市场机制,对于下一步规范城商行营商环境、化解流动性风险具有参考意义。本文首先通过银行间的博弈模型,发现政府持股比例越高会增加城商行同业负债比例,进而提高流动性风险发生的可能性;当经济处于下行周期时,全社会资金需求不足,大型银行资金投放的机会成本降低,有利于城商行获得同业负债,但却进一步积累了流动性风险。其次,通过系统GMM对2011—2018年80家城商行的非平衡面板数据进行分析,实证结果验证了理论假说。最后,结合理论与实证分析,进一步提出政府行为边界,破除隐性担保,建立城商行资金内部定价机制以及完善城商行监管体系等方面的政策建议。     

Bank regulation and international financial stability: A case against the 2006 Basel framework for controlling tail risk in trading books

In attempting to promote international financial stability, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2006) provided a framework that sought to control the amount of tail risk that large banks around the world would take in their trading books relative to their corresponding minimum capital requirements. However, many of these banks suffered significant trading losses during the recent financial crisis. Our paper examines whether the Basel framework allowed banks to take substantive tail risk in their trading books without a capital requirement penalty. We find that it allowed banks to do so and that its minimum capital requirements can be notably procyclical. Hence, focusing on the way the Basel framework sought to control the amount of tail risk in trading books relative to their corresponding minimum capital requirements, our paper supports the view that it was not properly designed to promote financial stability. We also discuss alternative regulatory frameworks that would potentially be more effective than the Basel framework in preventing banks from taking substantive tail risk in their trading books without a capital requirement penalty.     

商业银行集成风险管理研究

单一的风险管理方式无法应对现代商业银行所面临的风险。集成风险管理成为商业银行风险管理的发展趋势。本文论述了集成风险管理的风险相关性,风险集成技术的研究,并构建了商业银行集成风险管理模型,最后指出了商业银行集成风险管理研究的不足。     

我国商业银行公司信贷风险管理的行业思维

中国金融业的全面开放,加剧了中国商业银行的竞争,提高了主要依赖存贷利差收入的银行公司信贷风险。认为商业银行公司信贷业务不应涉足所有行业,要定位自己的几个优势行业,推行公司信贷业务的行业化经营、专业化管理,只有成为行业专家,才能透视行业,根据公司所处的行业政策和行业周期,把握进退时机,更好地控制公司信贷风险,提高经营效益。     

宏观流动性过剩与商业银行流动性风险管理

流动性过剩是近年来全球宏观经济领域的一个显著特征。在此背景下,商业银行流动性管理遇到了新的挑战。商业银行资金来源更加依赖金融市场,市场上的任何风吹草动都会影响到商业银行的流动性,甚至出现从流动性过剩到流动性不足的突然转化。有效管理商业银行流动性需要各国中央银行、金融监管者以及商业银行经营者的共同努力。     

从公司治理角度探讨国有商业银行资金管理机制再造

建立长效的资金管理机制,对于完善商业银行内部运行机制,优化商业银行公司治理结构具有重要的现实意义.本文将国有商业银行资金管理问题置于公司治理的框架下考虑,分析了我国国有商业银行存在组织架构未能理顺、管理方式和手段落后、资金风险管理水平不高和内部转移价格体制不合理等问题.据此,提出重构资金管理新机制的基本思路,即科学设计资金营运组织架构、提高风险管理水平、全面实行资金集中管理及建立完整有效的内部资金转移价格体系,并指出对于内部资金转移价格的定价可先采取实际成本率和收益率法,再过渡到半市场化法,最终实现市场化法的定价思路.     

商业银行银行账户利率风险管理面临的挑战

银行账户利率风险是目前商业银行面临的主要市场风险之一。该文基于当前商业银行风险管理实践揭示其银行帐户利率风险管理在计量、运用方面面临的挑战,指出商业银行必须从制度、计量、监测、控制等方面逐步建立相应体系,以强化银行账户利率风险管理,适应监管要求和新资本协议要求。     

商业银行操作风险监管的发展及对我国商业银行的启示

商业银行的操作风险监管在1995年巴林银行事件后开始引起高度重视,至今已有十余年。本文系统整理了国际银行业和我国商业银行操作风险监管的发展历程,分析了我国商业银行操作风险监管从无到有、从弱到强、日趋完善、与国际银行业逐步接轨的发展轨迹。在此基础上,指出我国商业银行与监管要求之差距所在以及未来努力的方向。     

关于我国商业银行经营转型的几个认识问题

经营转型问题是我国商业银行在完善公司治理改革之后面临的又一项重要课题。无论是发达国家还是转轨国家,其商业银行转型的基本经验表明,转型的路径与本国经济结构和金融环境密切相关,转型的快慢受到具体国情的重要影响。我国商业银行的经营转型不能急于求成,既不能跨越中国发展的现实,也不能落后于不断发展变化的经济金融环境。在一段相当长的时期内,存贷利差还是我国商业银行重要的盈利支柱,但转型成功的关键取决于个人金融业务及资金交易类业务的发展状况。对此,我国的商业银行转型必须制定明确的业务发展战略和区域发展战略。     

关于我国商业银行经营转型的几个认识问题

经营转型问题是我国商业银行在完善公司治理改革之后面临的又一项重要课题。无论是发达国家还是转轨国家。其商业银行转型的基本经验表明，转型的路径与本国经济结构和金融环境密切相关，转型的快慢受到具体国情的重要影响。我国商业银行的经营转型不能急于求成，既不能跨越中国发展的现实，也不能落后于不断发展变化的经济金融环境。在一段相当长的时期内，存贷利差还是我国商业银行重要的盈利支柱，但转型成功的关键取决于个人金融业务及资金交易类业务的发展状况。对此，我国的商业银行转型必须制定明确的业务发展战略和区域发展战略。     

Bank income structure and risk: An empirical analysis of European banks

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bank risk and product diversification in the changing structure of the European banking industry. Based on a broad set of European banks for the period 1996–2002, our study first shows that banks expanding into non-interest income activities present higher risk and higher insolvency risk than banks which mainly supply loans. However, considering size effects and splitting non-interest activities into both trading activities and commission and fee activities we show that the positive link with risk is mostly accurate for small banks and essentially driven by commission and fee activities. A higher share of trading activities is never associated with higher risk and for small banks it implies, in some cases, lower asset and default risks.     

风险管理、内部控制与国有商业银行海外上市

本文探讨了风险管理、内部控制与国有商业银行海外上市的关系。共分四个部分:一、关于银行风险的几个基本问题;二、关于银行风险的监管要求;三、关于公司治理和内部控制的监管要求;四、关于国有商业银行完善风险管理、内部控制制度的几点建议。第一部分是本文的分析框架;第二、第三部分是从该分析框架的角度对上市监管要求进行的阐述;第四部分是结合分析框架和监管要求,对国有商业银行风险管理改革提出的建议。本文的基本论点是,满足海外上市监管要求是国有商业银行海外上市需达到的最低要求;制定并实施与自身业务战略相适应的风险战略,将直接影响国有商业银行的股票投资价值。