Globalisation and the role of effective international institutions

Since empirical research has demonstrated that a sound financial system drives economic growth and the reverse causality alone is not causing this relationship, one can well extend this causal relationship to a global financial system and also argue that those factors that are limiting stronger economic growth and financial globalisation are partly related to deficiencies of the current global financial system. In the same way that some studies have argued for the significance of high quality national institutions as a way of addressing some of the national social and economic bottlenecks and also as a way of creating the right environment for sustained economic growth and integration into the global markets, high quality international institutions with adequate mandates and effective executive power can also influence the process of regional and global financial integration. These international institutions can accelerate the process of national institutional reforms. The paper argues that a number of financial barriers limiting financial globalisation have in essence international, regional and national components and hence without a globally coordinated strategy and framework to have parallel reforms at three levels, the limits to financial globalisation may remain for the foreseeable future.     

Financial services in an increasingly integrated global financial market

This paper discusses aspects of global financial services. As part of financial globalisation, financial institutions have evolved both nationally and internationally. FDI is becoming an important vehicle for multinational banks to enter developing countries. This in turn is changing the composition of trade in financial services. The experience of regional integration in Europe and the emergence of large multinational European banks signal a new era of global competition and consolidation of financial institutions. Home bias in international financial services is much less where financial integration is taking place. With financial globalisation, one should expect more diversification of ownership of multinational banks around the world, particularly when China and India are now able to have strategic investment in some of the key investment banks around the world. Financial globalisation requires stronger and more effective international institutions as a way of monitoring the activities of multinational financial institutions at both the national and international levels.     

Can an Asia Pacific Community,similar to the European Community,emerge?

The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether the Asia Pacific region could form a union similar to the one now established in Europe. To this end, it analyses some of the major challenge faced by the US prior to its union in the 19th century and the way countries such as France and Germany contributed to the formation of the EU, despite their past animosity. The paper proposed a two tier system for the emergence of a union in the Asia Pacific region in which all countries could become part of a regional framework for regional security and free trade and some of the more advanced countries in the region could start the process of financial integration and invite other member countries to join them over time. The paper argues that in the 2st century, unlike the claim of the “currency optimum theory,” there is no need for labour mobility amongst Asian countries for the formation of a union in this region and hence Australia should not expect millions of workers from China to migrate there. The paper argues that the role of Japan and China in the process of regional integration has been underestimated, due to the claim that the former is a monoculture and the latter is too nationalistic. The paper highlights how diversity in the region could be seen as a strength in the Asia Pacific region. It also shows how the process of globalisation has already overcome differences in culture, religion and race which used to be stumbling blocks for more regional or global integration. The paper argues that a union in the Asia Pacific region would reduce “home bias” for international capital flows and hence there would be significant financial transformation of countries in this region.     

The significance of a world government in the process of globalization in the 21st century

This paper discusses the process of globalization and analyses those pressing global issues that have been unresolved due to the lack of an integrated global system and effective international institutions. It highlights a number of global issues that require global ethics and global action. The paper discusses how a globally integrated system, with a world government, a world parliament and a world central bank as its components, is no longer an idealistic concept. The paper highlights the dynamic gains of the transformation of nations and the future of this planet, once an integrated global system is in place. It analyses the challenges overcome during the integration of the US in the 19th century and the process of the formation of the EU in the 20th century. It argues that the creation of a globally integrated system, based on new and effective international institutions would be easier to implement than the formation of the US in the 19th Century or the EU in the 20th century, as we now have technology that did not exist in the 19th century and the process of globalization has already removed many previous financial, technological, cultural, language and other barriers to integration.     

Assessing financial market integration in Asia – Equity markets

Financial integration has strong implications for financial stability. On the one hand, financial integration among economies helps to improve their capacity to absorb shocks and foster development. On the other hand, intensified financial linkages in a world of increasing capital mobility may also harbour the risk of cross-border financial contagion. This paper provides a survey of high-frequency indicators to monitor the development of equity market integration in Asia. The results show that after slowing down between 2002 and 2006, the equity market integration process picked up again in 2007–08. Nevertheless, the process is not complete and the degrees of integration between mature and emerging equity markets are different. The divergence may be attributed to the difference in the political, economic and institutional aspects across jurisdictions in Asia.     

Global financial services and a global single currency

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the evolution of financial institutions in the context of increasingly volatile foreign exchange markets. The paper discusses the importance of the formation of a single currency in the US in the 19th century and the formation of the Euro in the 20th century for reducing volatility in foreign exchange markets that have assisted financial institutions’ international business expansion. The paper also considers some of the key assumptions of an optimal currency theorem such as labour mobility and argues that in the 21st century, more comprehensive financial market integration and a single global currency could emerge, provided that capital mobility and hence foreign capital flows continue meeting labour in the host countries for production rather than the other way round.     

Regional motors of the global economy

The thesis of this article is that world capitalism is moving into a phase of development marked by an intensified regionalization of production overlaid by—and rooted in—a global division of labour. In this process, a significant reallocation of economic coordination and steering functions is occurring, away from the sovereign state, up to the international and down to the regional levels. The historical development of the global capitalist system over the post-World-War-II years is reviewed. The mechanism underlying the growth and spread of large agglomerations of productive activity throughout the world are then elucidated. The combined processes of global integration and regional concentration of economic activity raise important questions about appropriate forms of regulation in the new world order, and some evolving tendencies are described. The article ends on a speculative note in which the possible emergence of something like a worldwide system of city-states at the dawn of the 21st century is contemplated.     

Searching for opportunities for Sub-Saharan Africa's renewal in the era of globalisation

Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries rely heavily on donor assistance and international borrowing. The Official Development Assistance (ODA)/GNP ratio in SSA is expected to rise well into the next century. Increases or decreases of ODA, which is known to be the main source of SSA's investment, may depend on the type of global settlement expected to emerge in the post-cold war world. SSA has therefore a stake on the type of globalisation which may frame world economic policy and financial aid to it. Neo-liberal globalisation has no enthusiasm for massive financial transfers. The incipient globalising ideas which emerged from the Rio Summit in 1992 have suggested to increase ODAs in real terms and debt relief to control crushing debt service payments. Agenda 21 has created new and additional facilities formally for increasing donor assistance in the form of financial and investment transfers. The question is whether this new mechanism will make any difference to stem the SSA decline and can “incentivise” the region's renewal or renaissance. This article will focus on how globalisation may be related to increase or decrease of financial transfer to SSA.     

Technological globalisation or national systems of innovation?

Technological innovation is said to be breaking down borders. The internet, the explosion of globalised financial markets, the increased foreign direct investment by transnational corporations—all are portrayed as creating a global market in which the nation state is little more than an anachronism. And yet some economies have been more innovative and dynamic than others, and there seems no reason to believe that these differences in national economic performance will become a thing of the past. On the contrary, with a global market, any competitive advantage will bring larger rewards. So government action to enhance firms' competitive advantage becomes more important, not less. It is within this context that technological globalisation is analysed in this paper. The question is whether such globalisation spells the end of the nation state. The answer is no.     

Institutional Quality,Trade Openness,and Financial Sector Development in Asia: An Empirical Investigation

We examine the determinants of financial sector development in Asia and the Pacific from 1995 to 2011. In terms of economic growth, over the last twenty years the region has outperformed other parts of the world and has also experienced major developments in its traditionally bank-dominated financial system since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We apply the dynamic generalized method of moments to a panel data set of twenty-six economies in the region. The estimations were done for the whole panel as well as for subpanels of developed and developing economies. We find that better governance and institutional quality foster financial sector development in developing economies while economic growth and trade openness are key determinants of financial depth in developed economies.     

Financial risks,monetary policy in the QE era,and regulation

At the beginning of the present century, the literature on financial integration focused on the benefits of increased integration. In particular, the literature emphasized that a well-integrated financial system allows economic agents to engage in risk sharing while enhancing the smooth transmission of monetary policy. However, the international financial crisis of 2007-08 and the euro area sovereign debt crisis of 2009-15, brought to the fore the flip side of increased financial integration – namely, that higher financial integration among national jurisdictions creates the potential for destabilizing cross-country spillovers of capital flows. The papers in this Special Issue address financial system vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2009-15 euro area crisis. In particular, the papers assess (1) vulnerabilities arising from such factors as the liberalization of financial systems, cross-country contagion, and climate change, and (2) policy responses, including macroprudential supervision and quantitative easing, to financial instabilities.     

Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?

Using long time series for sovereign bond markets of fifteen industrialized economies from 1875 to 2009, I find that financial market integration by the end of the 20th century was higher than in earlier periods and exhibited a J-shaped trend with a trough in the 1920s. The main reason for the higher financial integration seen today is the recent extensive globalization. Around the turn of the 20th century, countries frequently drifted apart. Conversely, in recent years, the bond markets of most countries have moved together. Both policy variables and the global market environment play a role in explaining the time variation in integration, while “unexplained” changes in the overall level of country risk are also empirically important. My methodology, based on principal components analysis, is immune to outliers and accounts for global and country-specific shocks and, hence, can capture trends in financial integration more accurately than standard techniques such as simple correlations.     

The future and dynamics of global systemically important banks

The purpose of this paper is to analyse some of the issues associated with supervision and regulation of global systemically important banks, G-SIB. The paper highlights the importance of managing liquidity risk and creating a global financial system that can minimise regulatory arbitrage by large financial institutions. The paper argues that, unlike some industries such as the airline industry in which risk has been contained and yet the size and capacity of aircrafts have increased, in the banking system, less progress has been made to contain financial risk and allow large banks to expand their global activities. The paper argues that G-SIB are able to continue remaining large provided that a globally integrated financial system ensures effective global supervision of these large banks. The paper compares the US banking crises in the 19th century and the subsequent emergence of the US Federal Reserve System to the possibility of establishing a world central bank and a global supervisory board. Such new global institutions will have the capacity to reduce regulatory arbitrage, increase effective supervision, reduce systemic and liquidity risk and create a more stable global financial system.     

《银行家》2006年度奖项

由于经济的稳步增长、全球化以及新兴市场消费金融的崛起持续激励着金融机构,全世界的银行已经连续4年获得创纪录的利润与盈利能力。尽管不确定因素仍然存在,但相对良好的外部环境正在为银行创造着巨大的财富。     

东亚区域经济合作的战略背景分析

20世纪90年代和21世纪初,世界经济格局发生剧烈变化。一方面,科学技术进步推动着经济全球化,而经济全球化又推动着经济一体化;另一方面,全球区域经济一体化组织风起云涌,北美自由贸易区建立和向南美延伸,欧盟东扩。与大西洋两岸区域经济合作的蓬勃发展相比,东亚区域合作显得非常滞后。没有区域经济合作,东亚各国在全球竞争中就会处于劣势,在国际经济规则制定过程中就会永远处于较低地位。     

The role of development in global fertility decline

At the first intergovernmental global Population Conference at Bucharest in 1974, delegates from the Third World argued that rapid population growth would only be controlled when a more equitable relationship was established between the More and Less Developed Countries, leading to accelerated social and economic development in the latter. Over the subsequent quarter of a century this perspective has been progressively displaced as the dominant paradigm by the view that sustained fertility decline can be accomplished through good quality family planning programmes in the context of gender-sensitive social policies, including formal education. This paper is an attempt to establish whether the abandonment of the Bucharest ideology is justified on the basis of subsequent theoretical developments in fertility studies, and by global demographic trends over the period.It is concluded from an examination of the role of development in the historical demographic transition in Europe that the role of contraceptive diffusion is exaggerated, and economic growth and the distribution of its product unjustifiably neglected in the dominant theoretical position. The evidence points to a close negative correlation between income distribution and fertility, at national and regional levels. However, fertility decline is also sometimes driven by poverty, but evidence and theory point to the likelihood of such change being both partial and reversible.Alternative approaches to fertility explored since 1974 include the institutional approach, especially the transition from the extended to the nuclear family, and the ideational approach, which stresses the cultural significance of children and marginalises the impact of economic change on fertility. These perspectives, the validity of which is conditionally acknowledged, do little if anything to detract from the overall conclusion that the dominant factor in fertility decline is equitably distributed improvement in material standards of living.The paper concludes with speculation that future trends in population growth will be driven by the economic patterns emerging from the ongoing liberalisation of trade and investment under the aegis of globalisation.     

上市银行内部控制实质性漏洞研究述评

上市银行是金融体系中的核心组织,是维护金融安全、促进经济持续发展的重要基础。实质性漏洞是银行内控免疫系统中的脆弱环节,它的存在使银行公司治理和外部监管的有效性难以保障,在加强宏观监管的背景下,对其展开深入研究具有重要的理论及现实意义。本文对国内外实质性漏洞的研究进行了梳理与述评,并对如何构建上市银行内控实质性漏洞评价体系和风险预警机制提出了研究设想,以期对深化金融体系改革和加强金融创新研究有所启示和帮助。     

危机·中国·诺亚方舟？——金融危机中跨国公司的中国选择

中国以经济发展和社会进步成为世界经济的稳定器。相对于其他国家，中国应对危机有三个优势：一是中国具有庞大的外汇储备；二是中国存在资本管制，为中国筑起一道“防火墙”；三是中国货币政策稳健。过去4年都实现了财政盈余。在全球金融海啸中，有观点视中国为避风港，避难所。     

Globalisation, the global village and the civil society

Human dynamics, institutional change, political relations and the global environment have become increasingly intertwined. The development of multicultural societies has certainly not been without its problems. The re-emergence of extremist political parties, the segregation of cultures and ethnic conflict, illustrate the problematic side of socio-cultural integration at the local level. We argue that socio-cultural factors not only change as a result of globalisation, but also can be causes, as well as challenges to the process of globalisation itself. We describe how the recent introduction of the MGI and KOF globalisation indices can be used to empirically address to what extent globalisation affects social phenomena. Overall, while the rigidity of national boarders slackens, to speak about a global community is misleading. National borders still exist and the nation-state still matters. The fact is that they have to co-exist with civil society. The institutions of global civil society place limits upon the government and function as a sort of check on various forms of government, especially the authoritarian and absolutist varieties.     

2012年全球经济金融形势研判及对策建议

在回顾2011年发展态势的基础上,文章对2012年全球经济金融形势进行了预测,认为2012年世界经济将延续低速增长局面,全球资本流向不确定性增强,全球主要金融市场将持续动荡,股票市场、大宗商品市场和外汇市场波动将加剧,国际银行业前景不容乐观。在此形势下。我国应灵活应对,积极防范各种风险,促进经济平稳较快增长。