GSEs,Mortgage Rates,and the Long-Run Effects of Mortgage Securitization

Our paper compares mortgage securitization undertaken by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) with that undertaken by private firms, with an emphasis on how each type of mortgage securitization affects mortgage rates. We build a model illustrating that market structure, government sponsorship, and the characteristics of the mortgages securitized are all important determinants of mortgage rates. We find that GSEs generally—but not always—lower mortgage rates, particularly when the GSEs behave competitively, because the GSEs implicit government backing allows them to sell securities without the credit enhancements needed in the private sector. Using our simulation model, we demonstrate that when mortgages eligible for purchase by the GSEs have characteristics similar to other mortgages, the GSEs implicit government-backing generates differences in mortgage rates similar to those currently observed in the mortgage market (which range between zero and fifty basis points). However, if the mortgages purchased by GSEs are less costly to originate and securitize, and if the GSEs behave competitively, then the simulated spread in mortgage rates can be much larger than that observed in the data.     

Housing,mortgage bailout guarantees and the macro economy

What are the macroeconomic and distributional effects of government bailout guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises (e.g., Fannie Mae)? A model with heterogeneous, infinitely lived households and competitive housing and mortgage markets is constructed to evaluate this question. Households can default on their mortgages via foreclosure. The bailout guarantee is a tax-financed mortgage interest rate subsidy. Eliminating this subsidy leads to a large decline in mortgage origination and increases aggregate welfare by 0.5% in consumption equivalent variation, but has little effect on foreclosure rates and housing investment. The interest rate subsidy is a regressive policy: it hurts low-income and low-asset households.     

融资约束、资产抵押与企业投资

引入融资约束因素之后,企业资产抵押能力差异会通过"研发投资阻碍效应"、"实物投资诱发效应"等机制扭曲企业投资选择.为了解决中国企业热衷粗放型扩张、忽略研发投资、自主创新能力不足等问题,一方面,从短期看,必须提高商业银行甄别能力,在控制风险的基础上适当增加信用贷款;另一方面,从长期看,要大力发展风险投资、私募股票市场以构建并完善多层次资本市场,为企业创新创造一个良好的金融支持环境.     

Debt Spreads Between GSEs and Other Corporations

Policy analysis of the housing GSEs—Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and the Federal Home Loan Bank System—has largely centered on a comparison of their cost advantages relative to the benefits they provide to consumers and the market. Researchers generally treat their lower funding costs as the largest component of their cost advantage and measure it by a comparison of spreads between yields on non-GSE securities and GSE securities. This paper provides the first econometric analysis of such spreads. Special components of this research are separate analysis of debentures and medium-term notes, a comparison with all financial firms and a banking subsample, and the introduction of liquidity proxies. Comparing Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae debt with non-GSE debt rated AA– gives an estimated range of 27 to 30 basis points without the inclusion of the liquidity proxies, and a range of 22 to 27 basis points with their inclusion, over 1995–2000.     

从美国次贷危机看金融创新与金融监管的关系

2007年爆发的美国次贷危机,是一场在高度证券化和高度衍生产品化的金融体系中,由金融创新所引发、因货币政策和政府监管失误所造成的系统性金融危机。本文通过美国次贷危机中暴露出来的金融创新与金融监管问题,提出了加强对金融创新监管的对策。     

Mortgage risks,debt literacy and financial advice

A limited understanding of mortgage contracts and the risks involved may have contributed to the outbreak of the 2007–2008 financial crisis. We developed a special questionnaire relating mortgage loan decisions to financial knowledge and financial advice. Our results demonstrate that homeowners appear to be well aware of mortgage risks. Large loans relative to home value are perceived as riskier, as are loans with large mortgage payments relative to income and loans linked to investment vehicles. Homeowners with riskier mortgages indicated that they could encounter financial problems should house prices or their income decline. Homeowners with relatively low debt literacy are more likely to take out traditional mortgages with principal repayments over the maturity of the loan. Riskier mortgages are more prevalent among homeowners with a better understanding of loan contracts. Financially less sophisticated homeowners consulting mortgage brokers, too, hold riskier mortgages.     

Mortgage Delivery to the Secondary Market when Interest Rates are Falling

A borrower whose loan is committed to the securitization process has the ability and incentive to switch lenders if market rates drop during the loan origination period, which creates significant exposure for primary lenders. A simple secondary market contract innovation we call a mortgage rate drop guarantee (MRDG) could shift this risk to the securitizers who represent portfolio investors. Our simulation results indicate this shifting would have improved the risk/return distribution faced by originators without damaging the risk/return position of securitizers during our 1977–2010 sample period. Assuming conservative loan lives and origination periods, and competitive lending markets, the risk reduction features of MRDGs could also have generated significant interest savings for borrowers.     

广州房地产按揭行业的历史演进及未来趋势

通过文献整理和行业专家访谈,本文对广州房地产按揭行业的产生与发展的历史脉络进行了系统梳理,首次提出广州房地产按揭行业发展经历了准备期、萌芽期、成长期、调整期和发展期等五个历史阶段,并对每一历史时期的代表性事件进行了阐述。以此为依据,对当前广州房地产按揭行业存在的突出问题进行了分析,指出房地产按揭证券化、互联网技术应用、批发按揭和共建按揭行业生态圈是广州房地产按揭行业未来发展方向。     

The Relationships Between Mortgage Rates and Capital-Market Rates Under Alternative Market Conditions

Mortgage interest rates have become more integrated with other capital-market interest rates over recent decades, apparently as a result of the deregulation of financial markets. The link is both imperfect and time-varying. Mortgage rates during some time periods appear to be sticky with respect to their adjustment to changes in capital-market rates. We examine the relationship between weekly conventional mortgage rates and the interest rates on treasury and corporate securities under differing market conditions. We draw three conclusions based on the analysis. First, deregulation changed the link between mortgage rates and riskless interest rates, which confirms the findings of Goebel and Ma (1993). Second, mortgage rates were cointegrated with risky interest rates even before deregulation. Third, the link between mortgage rates and the risky bond rate can be associated with the behavior of the risk premium in the bond rate. The observed relationship is consistent with the stickiness observed by Haney (1988) and causes a more pronounced stickiness when rates are falling than when they are rising.     

The Structural Relation Between Mortgage and Market Interest Rates

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between primary and secondary mortgage markets and the short-term and long-term market interest rates. Using a series of monthly data on fixed rate mortgage rates and GNMA rates, we explore the dependence and speed of adjustment in these primary and secondary mortgage rates to each other as well as to the long and short-term government rates. The results indicate that residential mortgage rates in general, appear to follow the long-term rate and are not very sensitive to movements in the short-term interest rate.     

“次级债风波”的影响为何是“重量级”的？

消费者信贷挑战金融行业的竞争并加快金融创新,次级债是金融机构在追逐利润前提下的资产证券化产物,然而资产证券化放大金融风险。有效性冲突是现代金融风险的一个新特征,它挑战现有金融监管方式,金融监管不能适应创新需要使得次级债风波重创美国金融市场。     

Comment: Secondary and Primary Mortgage Market Interactions

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics -     

An International Perspective for Mortgage Market Reform

The United States and certain European countries (e.g., Ireland and Spain) have recently experienced serious distress in their residential mortgage markets. Public policy has responded with interventions to limit the deadweight costs of mortgage foreclosures, but with limited success. There are also open questions with respect to long‐term reforms in mortgage market structures. In this paper, I make use of the important differences that exist between U.S. and European mortgage markets to help identify those aspects of residential mortgage markets that are most in need of reform.     

从次贷危机看我国金融衍生市场监管路径的选择

次贷危机爆发后,各国金融监管当局开始重新审视与思考金融监管问题,并开始把金融监管触角延伸到金融产品层面,希望通过加强对金融产品研发、交易和传播链条上每一环节的监控,从源头上控制金融风险的发生与蔓延。基于此,本文重点探讨了金融衍生品与次贷危机的逻辑关系,并从监管层面对危机的爆发进行了相关分析,最后结合我国现状探讨了如何选择监管路径以提高监管能力的问题。     

我国信用风险缓释市场发展与创新

随着我国融资市场快速发展,信用风险管理面临严峻挑战,信用风险缓释市场亟待发展创新.然而,受金融危机影响,我国金融从业人员在观念、认识和态度上对信用风险缓释工具(CRM)存在诸多不明.本文通过解析CRM市场结构、CDS定价机制,以及中国CRM市场发展对策,帮助金融从业人员正确认识CRM市场功能,提升CRM市场参与能力,为...     

Second Chances: Subprime Mortgage Modification and Redefault

We examine how the structure of mortgage modification affects the likelihood that the mortgage redefaults over the next year. We focus on pre‐HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program) subprime modifications where the borrower was seriously delinquent and the monthly payment was reduced. The average redefault rate over the year following the modification is 56%. Redefault rates decline with the magnitude of reduction in monthly payments, and redefault rates decline more when the payment reduction is achieved through principal forgiveness as compared to lower interest rates.     

Macroeconomic News and Mortgage Rates

The study analyzes the influence of macroeconomic news announcements on (a) interest rates for commercial mortgages, residential mortgages, 10-year Treasury notes, and Baa-rated corporate bonds; and (b) corresponding mortgage spreads. It is both interesting and highly relevant from a policy and portfolio management standpoint to examine the implications of the influence of macroeconomic news announcements on mortgage markets. Some important results are reported. First, consistent with the notion of market integration, mortgage rates are found to be co-integrated with other capital market instruments. Second, of the 22 types of periodic macroeconomic news releases considered, 13 of them have a significant influence on at least one of the interest rates, and notably changes in hourly earnings and housing starts significantly influence all debt-security yields. More generally, macroeconomic news that conveys higher inflation and/or economic growth has a positive influence on mortgage and other interest rates. Finally, this study finds several announcements including durable goods orders, new home sales, personal consumption, non-farm payroll, trade balance and Treasury budget to have a significant influence on mortgage spreads.     

Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets

In this paper we offer direct evidence that financial intermediation does impact underlying asset markets. We develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the put option imbedded in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using a dataset for 19 countries and over 500 real estate investment trusts, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the “underpricing” economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced.

商业性森林保险与林权抵押贷款组合的发展现状、问题及建议

白山市森林资源十分丰富,林业在全市国民经济发展中有举足轻重的地位。目前,我国正在实施的林权制度改革,林权抵押贷款业务开始发展,但由于森林固有的弱质性使林权抵押贷款面临较大的风险,因此白山市在全省率先开办了＂林木火灾保险＋‘林富通’个人林权抵押贷款＂组合业务,探索出一条＂护林＂、＂惠民＂、拓宽＂三农＂金融服务的新途径。