In Search of Verae Causae: The Keynes-Tinbergen Debate Revisited

A popular subject in discussion on Keynes and statistical inference is the Keynes-Tinbergen debate, which appeared in The Economic Journal in the late 1930s and early 1940s. The subject re-emerged in the literature in the second half of the 1970s and continued into the 1990s. The Keynes-Tinbergen debate is considered to be the starting point of a discussion on a host of technical econometric pitfalls and methodological difficulties attached to the statistical testing of economic theory. Although the discussion has focussed on the question to which degree the debate has had bearings on the further development of econometrics and applied economics, this paper highlights the issue of causal explanation in business cycle theory. The implications of the Keynes-Tinbergen debate may be extended to a discussion on the theoretical claims of originality.     

房地产投资与宏观经济波动的相互影响关系——基于格兰杰因果检验模型的研究

房地产投资是固定资产投资的重要组成部分,是影响宏观经济走势的重要因素之一。研究房地产投资与经济发展之间是否存在波动的相互影响关系对协调房地产投资与国民经济发展有着重要的意义。文章利用协整理论、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果等计量理论方法对房地产投资的波动与GDP波动之间的关系进行实证分析,发现两者之间呈现一定的显著关系,进而对房地产调控进行了探讨。     

基于Granger因果关系检验的居民储蓄影响因素分析

基于协整理论的因果关系研究,是现代计量经济学具有划时代意义的发展。本文通过因果关系来研究我国居民储蓄的影响因素,并对国内生产总值及利率对我国居民储蓄的影响因素进行了实证分析。     

贵州省农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系的实证分析

本文以农村金融与经济增长相关理论为基础,阐述贵州省农村金融发展和经济增长现状,根据1978～2009年数据,通过协整检验说明贵州省农村金融发展农村经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,并建立VAR模型来考察金融相关率变动与第一产业值之间的动态影响关系。实证分析表明,与经济增长速度相比,贵州省农村金融发展程度相对滞后,贵州农村经济增长对农村金融发展的影响要大于金融发展对经济增长的影响,农村金融发展对经济增长的促进作用不明显。     

基于Bayes理论的空间计量模型选择框架——以中国电信服务外溢性分析为例

空间计量经济学发展了一系列的空间计量模型,但在实证研究中如何根据实际问题选用最佳模型,尚无统一的筛选框架。而且既有文献中用于模型选择的检验主要针对大样本情形,但现实并不总是满足大样本的前提条件。文章结合贝叶斯理论处理有限样本的优势构建了针对空间计量经济模型进行筛选的统一框架。空间计量模型Bayes筛选框架的突出优势是在处理嵌套模型与非嵌套模型两种情形时具有逻辑一致性,对大、小样本条件均适用,而且筛选指标具有可直接计算性,易于操作。算例计算结果表明:相对其他所给模型而言,整合了网络技术联系及经济联系的空间误     

城市圈可接近性与城市经济增长--以珠三角、武汉城市圈为例

针对我国目前正在兴起的建设城市圈的热潮,本文讨论了城市圈形成的一个模型,运用空间计量以及面板数据的方法对我国已经发展较成熟的珠三角城市圈以及正在建设的武汉城市圈进行了比较研究,结果发现:城市圈的可接近性能显著地促进位于城市圈内的城市的经济增长水平。本文还提出了发展边缘城市、实施组团式发展的城市圈发展策略。     

试析国有企业改革中的资源要素租金问题——兼论重建“全民所有制”

本文从回顾和评述租金理论的历史发展中发现,租金问题实质上是资源要素价格问题,其来源和性质取决于所有权及其垄断。在国有企业的改革中,国家与企业的利益分配关系、产权的交易和重组、国进民退现象的发生、以及经营者激励和企业家定价问题的正确处理和解决,都与租金的索取和分配密切相关。此外,根据租金的来源和性质,文章还讨论了公共信托基金和基金机构的建立和运营问题,提出了重建“全民所有制”的观点和主张。     

Learning and Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models

The extant literature is split on the best measure of marginal cost in the New Keynesian Philips Curve, with the output gap and the labor share being the most commonly advocated proxy measures. Which one is the best measure? In this article, I assume that agents update their understanding and expectation period by period, a learning process. In terms of econometrics, I use a recursive Vector Autoregression approach and conduct a forecasting exercise that considers updating of information sets used for formation of expectation. I find that the traditional output gap measure is a more significant variable explaining the dynamics of the U.S. inflation rate, as compared with a measure of the labor income share. Furthermore, the role of the output gap cannot be replaced using lagged values of inflation. Instead, both the output gap and lags of the actual inflation rate are important determinants of inflation.     

An Essay on Human Rights and the Market for Social Contracts

In this article, I discuss an economic theory of human rights. Interpreting the social contract as a market good, a vector of rights that cannot be unbundled, I construct a competitive model in which citizens demand and states supply social contracts. An international market for social contracts matches citizens with states and determines the optimal social contracts. Human rights are the set of rights common to all equilibrium social contracts under perfectly competitive conditions. I explain that in reality, states may renege on their promises to citizens and may interfere with the market for social contracts. Thus, I argue for limits on state sovereignty and suggest that the international authority enforce social contracts and enhance the efficiency of the market for social contracts.     

我国热钱流入的影响因素分析

本文在国际学术界关于国际资本流动影响因素的现有理论基础上,构建了我国热钱流入影响因素的模型,对利率、汇率、通货膨胀率、经济增长等因素对我国热钱流动的影响进行了计量分析,并提出相关政策建议。     

中国货币政策数量效果的实证研究

文章主要运用了单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学方法,利用1994年到2004年的季度数据,对货币供应量、利率这两个重要货币政策变量与GDP之间的关系进行了计量分析,利率对实体经济的影响不显著;不同层次的货币供应量都能对经济产生影响,但它们对GDP的作用效果是有差异的.为提高我国货币政策的效果,实现我国货币政策的目标提出了相关的政策建议.     

战略新兴产业金融支持研究——以北京中关村为例

战略新兴产业萌发于科技创新,壮大于金融支持。金融市场越完善,创新的生命周期就越短。本文通过使用传统计量方法与空间计量方法,以中关村战略新兴产业为例,测度新兴产业不同生命周期与不同金融支持工具的对应关系,并在此基础上分析新兴产业不同生命周期与金融资源配置主体的动态对应关系,得出如下结论：对于新兴产业的发展来说,银行信贷是最有效的金融支持工具;在战略新兴产业发展的初创期和成长期,金融资源的配置主体应是市场为主,政府为辅,政府过度扶持不会产生明显作用;在战略新兴产业发展的成熟期和衰退期,金融资源的配置主体是完全市场,政府退出,所以放开对私营银行的限制,放松利率管制,放开区域金融垄断是拯救战略新兴中小企业的重要路径。     

Discussion of “Communicated Values as Informal Controls: Promoting Quality While Undermining Productivity?”

Kachelmeier, Thornock, and Williamson ( 2016 ) investigate experimentally whether an employer's value statement can affect the way employees cognitively represent how they should approach a multi‐attribute task, and therefore performance. Counter‐intuitively, but consistent with their theory, they find that the value statement negatively affects performance for piece‐rate incentivized participants. In my discussion, I elaborate on my comments from the 2013 CAR Conference. Specifically, I discuss contexts where a firm's value statement may have positive effects on performance, and the importance of conducting research investigating how the decisions made by management accountants affect learning.     

深圳市电子产业集聚与出口关系的实证分析

20世纪90年代以来深圳市的电子产业存在明显的聚集倾向,通过对电子产业集聚规模和电子产业出口规模相关关系的计量分析,结果表明产业聚集明显带动了电子产业出口的发展。     

安徽农户投资行为影响因素的实证分析

农户是农业投资的重要主体,文章以安徽为例,建立计量经济模型,运用C-D生产函数对影响农户农业投资的因素与农户投资之间的关系进行回归分析,指出各因素对农户投资的影响程度,并就此提出增加农户投资的几点政策建议.     

广东省城镇化发展、工业化发展与农民收入增长的协整分析

本文运用协整检验、误差修正模型等计量经济方法,对广东省1978～2007年间的城镇化发展、工业化发展、农民收入的长期均衡关系和短期波动关系作实证研究。实证结果表明,广东省农民收入和城镇化发展、工业化发展之间存在着长期的均衡关系;城镇化发展和工业化发展是提高广东省农民收入的重要途径。     

Discussion of “Managers' Discretionary Adjustments: The Influence of Uncontrollable Events and Compensation Interdependence”

In this discussion of Bol, Hecht and Smith (this issue; BHS), I examine their theory and experimental setting with the purposes of investigating how their study generalizes and identifying further research possibilities. First, I discuss the uncontrollable events the study addresses, which are influenceable and require innovative effort to prevent adverse effects. What follows next is an analysis of experimental design choices and their implications. In particular, results could be specific to the manipulation of event likelihood, as well as to the properties of the objective bonus system and form of subjectivity. This illustrates how evaluation system design properties can create diverse reference points and affect perceived fairness and discretionary adjustments. Together, these points indicate wherein the contribution of BHS lies, and provide an outline for future research opportunities by suggesting alternative research choices.     

影响皖浙两省经济发展因素的比较

本文利用安徽和浙江两省1995-2011年的相关数据,通过计量经济学模型计算各指标对经济的贡献发现:安徽省经济为消费主导型,而浙江省为政府投资主导型。通过var脉冲模型进行变量间的作用分析发现:安徽省消费主导型中的消费通过影响投资和政府支出来间接影响经济发展,同样浙江省的政府投资带动消费和投资的增长来影响经济发展。     

The Spillover Effect of Race on Police Expenditures: An Alternative Test of the Minority Threat Hypothesis

This paper implements a novel application of spatial econometrics to test the minority threat hypothesis by estimating the relationship and potential spillovers between race and police expenditures. This paper uses a strategic interaction framework to describe the mechanism that may drive expenditure spillovers as well as demographic spillovers. Estimating a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), the findings of this study show counties with more residential segregation and are more conservative exhibit positive spillovers on neighboring county police expenditures. This paper makes a contribution by showing the effects of greater minority threat is not limited within geographic boundaries.     

Outside Blockholders' Monitoring of Management and Debt Financing: An Alternative Perspective

Liao ( 2015 ) argues that the monitoring by large outside shareholders (blockholders) exacerbates the conflict between debt and equity and in turn affects the choice and structure of debt financing. The study contends that private debt is more immune to the increase in debt‐equity conflict. Consistent with this argument, companies with outside blockholders are inclined to issue private debt over public debt. Further, private debt exhibits less price protection but relies on more protective covenants than does public debt. The findings are interesting and intuitive. I evaluate the economic arguments in the paper and discuss some of the challenges that the study faces. My conclusion is that the interpretation of the results is more complex than the one the study presents. I offer a broader framework that can be used to shed light on why the governance structure combines equity blockholders and private debt issuance. I also discuss several questions to be addressed by future research.