The explanatory power of market-based trade theories for the trade between market economies and reform countries

We try to explain the bilateral trade structure between Austria and three of its former socialist neighbours by trade theories developed for market economies, specifically focussing on the Heckscher-Ohlin model in its commodity version. We use data on factor intensities in about 100 industries in the EC and in Austria and can explain a modest amount of the trade structure before and after the start of the transition process and to some degree also of the change in the trade structure. The restrictions given by the data, the absence of a price system in socialist countries and the disequilibria in the actual trade suggest why the explanatory power of the tested theory is not higher. The study however indicates that at least some part of the industry in the former Czechoslovakia and in Poland had been well endowed with capital and energy before the transition. In the first five years of the transition a balanced trade turned into a high deficit of the reform countries.The authors wish to thank the participants of the EMPIRICA ECONOMIC POLICY FORUM Consequences of Eastern European Reform in Vienna, October 18, 1993 for an intensive discussion. Thanks to Robert Holzmann, Michael Landesmann, Gabor Oblath, Sandor Richter, Gunther Tichy, Michael L. Wyzan for comments. We also thank Christa Magerl and Elisabeth Neppl-Oswald for the calculations and for reading various drafts of the paper.     

制造业区域同构抑或异构:两大三角洲层面的分析

本文以珠江三角洲和长江三角洲两大区域空间作为空间维度,就中国区域间制造业结构趋同与趋异论题,进行了实证研究。从区域专业化与行业集中度两个视点切入对两大三角洲制造业同构与异构变化的分析揭示,目前两大三角洲的制造业结构已经走出了以往趋同阴影而朝着趋异演进;纵向比较考察揭示,1980年代以来两大三角洲制造业结构的趋同、趋异演进,大体上经历了由趋异而趋同再到趋异的三阶段路径,三个阶段的分野先后显现于1990年代初期和新旧世纪交替年份。进一步的研究显示,两大三角洲制造业结构的上述三阶段演进,大体上与这两大地区之区域经济"二重开放"路径模式差异变化阶段相吻合;实证检验在很大程度上也证明,在两个三角洲制造业结构演进与其各自的区域经济"二重开放"之间,的确存在明确而肯定的联系。     

Effects of US interest rates and news on the daily interest rates of a highly indebted emerging economy: evidence from Turkey

It has been widely demonstrated that asset prices react sensitively to macroeconomic news releases both in the industrialized countries and emerging markets. However, there are contradicting results on the effects of changes in interest rates of industrialized countries on asset prices of emerging markets. In heavily indebted economies, in addition to these factors, political news and announcements from international institutions that may increase or decrease concerns about debt sustainability can affect asset prices as well. This potential notwithstanding, there has been relatively limited empirical work on the effects of such variables. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of all of these factors on interest rates of a highly indebted emerging economy. Using daily post-crisis data of the Turkish economy we show that both good and bad political news, International Monetary Fund announcements, and European Union related news significantly affected secondary market government securities yields, whereas volatility of yields was affected mainly by bad news releases. Changes in US Treasury bond rates and ‘appetite’ for risk of foreign investors did not affect government securities yields in the period analysed.     

FDI对我国创业型经济发展的效应分析

运用面板门限模型验证了FDI对我国创业型经济影响的门限特征。结果显示,在全国范围内,区域人均GDP发展水平的变化会使FDI对创业型经济的影响表现出门限特性,即当区域人均GDP低于FDI发挥积极作用的门限时,FDI将会对创业型经济产生负面影响;而当区域人均GDP超过该门限后,FDI对创业型经济的发展将发挥越来越大的促进作用。     

The internationalization of firms in the service industries: Channels, determinants and sectoral patterns

The paper presents the results of a new survey on the international activities of Norwegian enterprises in the service industries. The survey focuses on three main internationalization channels: international sales, international cooperation and R&D outsourcing. The empirical analysis studies the relevance of these channels, and investigates the related strategies, objectives and determinants. International sales and collaborations emerge as the two most relevant channels, whereas the scope for R&D outsourcing seems to be far more limited. The analysis of the determinants of international activities leads to three main results: (1) the innovative capability of firms matters for their international performance; (2) the various internationalization channels seem to be complement, rather than substitute, strategies to compete in foreign markets; and (3) sectoral specificities greatly affect firms' internationalization strategies and performance.     

伊拉克战争对世界经济的影响

伊拉克战争是21世纪爆发的第一场规模巨大的战争，但它毕竟是一场地区性的局部战争。战争没有根本改变世界经济总的形势，也没有根本改变世界经济的格局，但战争对某些地区和部门确有不可低估的影响。战争对美国经济短期内虽有刺激作用，但长期看，却不能低估它的负面影响。战争加剧了世界经济的不平衡发展。它正在引起新一轮的军备竞赛，并给石油格局和石油安全带来重要影响。从中国经济发展的角度看问题，我们可以从伊拉克战争中得到一些重要启示。     

The impact of electricity prices on foreign direct investment: evidence from the European Union

We examine the impact of electricity price variation on net FDI (%GDP) inflows in countries of the European Union. We use panel data of 27 EU countries for a period of 2003 – 2013. We show that electricity prices of south-western and north-eastern EU countries did not converge to one price until now. Dynamic panel data analysis using system GMM shows that besides unit labour costs, tax rates and competitive disadvantage in secondary education, also higher electricity prices reduce countries’ ability to attract FDI. The immediate effects are statistically significant across both sub-regions analysed: in the short run, a 10% increase in electricity prices leads to a decrease in net FDI inflows as a share of GDP by 0.4 percentage points for the south-western and 0.33 for the north-eastern region. In the long run, the response is 0.60 percentage points for south-western and 0.48 for north-eastern regions. Policies should aim at reducing electricity market price differences on the European level through investment in transborder transmission capacity; reductions in FDI, when environmental policy increases after-tax electricity prices, should be countered by other tax reductions as well as harmonization of property rights, absence of corruption and labour market regulations at best-practice level.     

The sooner,the better: The economic impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper estimates the economic impact of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented by countries in Europe and Central Asia during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis relies on daily electricity consumption, nitrogen dioxide emission and mobility records to trace the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic and calibrate these measures to estimate the magnitude of the economic impact. To address the potential endogeneity in the introduction of NPIs, we instrument their stringency by the extent of a country's social ties to China. The results suggest that the NPIs led to a decline of about 10% in economic activity across the region. On average, countries that implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early stages of the pandemic appear to have better short-term economic outcomes and lower cumulative mortality, compared with countries that imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions during the later stages of the pandemic. Moreover, there is evidence that COVID-19 mortality at the peak of the local outbreak has been lower in countries that acted earlier. In this sense, the results suggest that the sooner non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, the better are the economic and health outcomes.     

从又快又好到又好又快看科学发展观

科学发展观是以胡锦涛同志为总书记的中央领导集体关于中国经济与社会发展指导思想的理论创新,是中国特色社会主义理论体系的重要组成部分,是马克思主义中国化又一重要理论成果.本文从科学发展观的提出及其内涵开始,分析又快又好与又好又快两种经济与社会发展模式的区别与联系,从中看出,中国经济与社会发展需要长期坚持又好又快的科学发展道路.     

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs: New evidence from sectoral patterns

This paper investigates the determinants of European Union FDI in the CEECs at sectoral level. The aim is to understand whether and to what extent FDI undertaken in different sectors reacts to the characteristics of the host countries. The analysis is based on a dataset created specifically for this purpose. It concentrates on the manufacturing sectors, classified according to the Pavitt taxonomy. Firstly, data summarizing the recent trend of FDI in the CEECs is presented and then empirical evidence given to account for differences between sectors. The estimated model is a generalization of a three-way fixed effect model incorporating 'classic' variables, such as labour costs as well as country-specific variables, i.e., the stage reached in the transition process. The results confirm the presence of heterogeneity at sector level.     

Regional analysis of the impact of inward foreign direct investment on economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry

This article empirically investigates the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on regional economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry (CEI). Utilizing a provincial-level panel data spanning the period 1989 to 2009, we specify and estimate an endogenous economic growth model for the CEI. Empirical results indicate that, for the coastal region, FDI inflows have been growth enhancing, while in the central and western regions the impact of FDI on economic growth is mixed, depending on the channel of capital flow. Results also indicate that exports, human capital, science and technology investment and fixed asset investment are growth enhancing, while unemployment and foreign R&D investment are growth impeding in the CEI.     

内蒙古产业结构优化升级的路径研究

本文基于产业结构相关理论,从内蒙古的实际情况出发,分析研究内蒙古产业结构现状及其存在的主要问题,并对如何进一步调整优化内蒙古的产业结构提出一些初步建议：通过加快农产品流通、发展农区畜牧业等措施调整第一产业内部结构;大力发展高新技术产业、改造传统产业、实施工业化与信息化两步并作一步走战略,形成工业化促进和谐社会建设的新格局;通过保持第三产业合理的投资增长、加快新兴服务业的发展等措施,实现第三产业内部结构的调整。     

The economic impact of galantamine vs placebo: An analysis based on functional capacity in a Swedish cohort study

Abstract

Objective:

To analyse the economic impact of galantamine, based on basic activities of daily living (ADL).

Methods:

Data were derived from Swedish patients enrolled in a 6-month placebo-controlled trial of galantamine (GAL-INT-1; n?=?80), and from the Kungsholmen–Nordanstig Project, a longitudinal study of 919 elderly persons in Sweden. Basic ADL were assessed using the Katz’ Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living (ADL) (number of ADL lost [dependency in 0, 1–2, 3–4, or 5–6 ADL]). Costs were appraised based on regression analysis and on costs directly linked to ADL. Six-month costs for galantamine and placebo were calculated.

Results:

In the regression analyses, each increase in a Katz stage was associated with an annual cost increase of SEK 81,415–83,683 (～€8000). Results were similar using stage-specific costs. Overall, there was a small, non-significant numerical cost benefit for galantamine indicating cost neutrality.

Limitations:

The small number of Swedish patients in the GAL-INT-1 study, which was not powered for economic outcomes, limits the statistical power of the analysis. In addition, long-term outcomes are difficult to assess in persons with dementia because of practical and logistical problems.

Conclusions:

The benefits of galantamine in patients with AD can be achieved with no increase in cost. Combined with positive effects in terms of outcome, treatment with galantamine can be regarded as cost-effective using a cost–consequence approach.     

我国城市发展转型中制造业重要性分析:以广州为例

基于中国工业化发展的特殊阶段,探讨在城市经济转型和发展中制造业的作用是否降低的问题。首先以广州为例,分析了制造业和服务业在城市经济增长中的贡献和地位,并考察两个行业的增长质量;其次,重点分析了中国工业化发展阶段和处于这个阶段制造业的作用;再次,研究了2008年全球金融危机使得以服务业为主的城市往往表现出内生的经济脆弱性。研究发现,并不能得出服务业已经成为广州这样特大城市经济增长最主要动力的结论,服务业份额的增加主要是制造业增长放慢的结果,在中国工业化向技术集约化演进的过程中,城市尤其是大城市应承担起技术升级和创新的职能并带动全国各层次区域工业化整体的升级。     

FDI与产业集聚的互动——中国农产品加工业视角

本文基于传统贸易理论、新贸易理论、新经济地理理论,对FDI与产业集聚的相互关系进行理论探讨。在此基础上,运用面板误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果检验原理对FDI与中国农产品加工业集聚的关系进行实证分析。结果发现,FDI既是推动农产品加工业集聚形成的短期原因,也是影响农产品加工业集聚发展的长期因素,而产业集聚则不是FDI进入农产品加工业的原因。     

The limit theorem on the core of a production economy in vector lattices with unordered preferences

Summary. We prove Aliprantis, Brown, and Burkinshaw's (1987) theorem on the equivalence of Edgeworth production equilibria and pseudo-equilibria in a more general setting. We consider production economies with unordered preferences and general consumption sets in a vector lattice commodity space. We adapt the approach of Mas-Colell and Richard (1991) and prove our theorem by applying a separating hyperplane argument in the space of all allocations. We also generalize Podczeck's (1996) important result on the relationship between continuous and discontinuous equilibrium prices to the case of production. Received: April 18, 1997; revised version: February 6, 1998     

支持性产业视角:陕西装备制造业发展对策分析

陕西装备制造业发展有着雄厚的历史基础,但在全国同业中的发展水平却相对落后。在新的历史发展机遇下,陕西如何加快装备制造业的发展速度,使其成为带动陕西经济腾飞的支柱型产业,这一问题需从理论与实践两方面予以探讨。基于相关支持性产业视角,试图找出制约陕西装备制造业发展的主要因素,并据此提出对策性建议。     

陕北地区"又好又快"发展模式探讨

基于陕北地区的资源环境禀赋、现行发展模式及带来的严重后果,以实现陕北地区又好又快发展为目的,本文提出了陕北地区的"П"型发展模式,即以循环经济理念为指导,一方面,从微观、中观、宏观三个层面大力推进能源化工产业优化升级,实现资源利用效率最大化和环境污染最小化;另一方面,在能源化工产业的支持带动下,实施农业生态化、生态产业化战略,为区域发展培育新的经济增长点,创造更多就业机会,实现经济、社会和环境"三赢"。这一模式的成功实施需要当地政府转变发展观念,培育教育、物流、建筑等配套产业,解决水资源匮乏问题。     

Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Price determination theory typically focuses on the role of monetary policy, while the role of fiscal policy is usually neglected. From a different point of view, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level takes into account monetary and fiscal policy interactions and assumes that fiscal policy may determine the price level, even if monetary authorities pursue an inflation targeting strategy. In this paper we try to test empirically whether the time path of the government budget in EMU countries would have affected price level determination. Our results point to the sustainability of fiscal policy in all the EMU countries but Finland, although no firm conclusions can be drawn about the prevalence of either monetary or fiscal dominance.