Influences on coastal tourism demand and substitution behaviors from climate change impacts and hazard recovery responses

Climate change impacts can negatively affect tourism demand and, subsequently, local economies by disrupting access and altering physical conditions, including those from adaptation and recovery efforts. Research is needed that helps destinations become more climate ready, including studies of decision factors that influence trip-taking behaviors. This paper presents findings from a discrete choice experiment to determine how physical and economic changes could affect visitation behaviors to a vulnerable coastal destination, the Outer Banks region of North Carolina, USA. We embedded our experiment within an on-site visitor survey to reveal thresholds of negative changes to coastal attributes that tourists are willing to tolerate, and also examined tourists’ willingness to substitute their future trips to the region. Transportation-related changes had the highest relative importance among the four selected attributes. The likelihood of three types of spatial substitution, spurred by not being able to access the destination, were consistently related to residency but less consistently related to place meanings, visitation history, and other demographic variables. Study results can inform climate change planning within coastal zones to minimize negative impacts to tourism demand, such as the need to develop creative revenue streams to maintain resilience in communities that rely on occupancy taxes.     

Forecasting recreation demand in the upper Savannah River Basin

Saunders, Paul R., Herman F. Senter, and James P. Jarvis, Forecasting Recreation Demand in the Upper Savannah River Basin. Annals of Tourism Research 1981, VIII(2):236–256. The Upper Savannah River Basin in Georgia and South Carolina, USA, offers opportunities for a variety of recreation activities. Four major reservoirs, and a fifth one under construction, are available for recreation use. Most users live within 80 to 160 kilometers of the two principal reservoirs, Hartwell Lake and Clark Hill Lake. A recreation demand model was developed for these two reservoirs and the soon to be completed Russell Lake, basing total demand on projected population and participation rates for fourteen selected activities. Total demand, consisting of met and unmet demand, was predicted for 1976, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010. The model is a relatively simple tool which can be used by state, local, and regional planners to predict both demand for facilities, and the supply of facilities needed to meet future demand.     

China in the Eyes of Western Travelers as Represented in Travel Blogs

Travel blogs provide a new way of understanding consumers' perceptions on destination and its associated products. The purpose of this study was to examine international tourists' destination image of China as represented in travel blog discourse. Data were obtained from blog entries relating to trips to China posted on three dominant travel blog websites. Content analysis facilitated by Atlas.ti 6.0 was performed on a total of 89 China-related travel blogs. The study identified the most frequently discussed aspects of tourists' experiences in China. The results also indicated that the blog authors had mixed and paradoxical images of China as identified by previous research. Marketing implications for China's tourism development based on the results were discussed.     

IDENTIFYING LEISURE TRAVEL MARKET SEGMENTS BASED ON PREFERENCE FOR NOVELTY

The motivation and knowledge of travelers affects their choice of destination and selection of activities while on vacation. Understanding motivation is important for all stakeholders in the tourism industry. The search for novelty is one motivating factor when planning leisure trips and vacation activities. A foreign destination offers a form of novelty to the traveler because it can provide experiences that are not of the everyday variety. The chosen location may have specific geographical features, a different cultural background, special shopping opportunities, a different language, new foods, and unique leisure activities that can provide a novel experience. The purpose of this study is to identify segments of potential U.S. leisure travelers based on their level of novelty seeking and to investigate the relationship between travelers' levels of novelty seeking and their knowledge of a destination and preferred travel style.     

Beyond Adoption of Travel Technology: Its Application to Unplanned Travel Behaviors

The ultimate goal of information distribution for a destination marketer is to stimulate travelers to make a purchase decision. Today, travel information can be obtained by travel technology, which enables travelers to exploit on-the-move information. Navigation services for travel technology are being more broadly used across the globe by providing a wide range of en route information. This study evaluates the effects of travel information disseminated by navigation services on unplanned behaviors during trips. The results of the study illustrate that travelers who use navigation during trips are more likely to be involved in unplanned activities and, hence, will have an increase in unplanned travel expenditures. Destination marketers can partner with travel technology providers to encourage better travel experiences for tourists and generate more travel revenues for the tourism industry.     

Holiday destinations: Understanding the travel choices of Irish tourists

This paper uses a McFadden choice model to measure the importance of destination, household and seasonal characteristics to the tourism destination choices of Irish households. The analysis is based on quarterly survey data of Irish households' travel destinations between 2000 and 2006. In total, some 55,000 holiday trips were observed. Destination characteristics such as temperature, GDP and coastline are found to positively influence choice probabilities, while population density and distance have a negative effect on choice. Household-specific characteristics such as the number of children and people over 60 in a household are found to be important. We also identify differences in preferences across seasons and a change over time of the effect of destination country GDP on Irish holiday destination choices.     

The Tourism System Research Categorization Framework

This analysis produced a tourism system research categorization framework comprising mutually exclusive subject areas to classify the keywords in academic journal articles. The primary research goals were to develop this framework and then assess the frequency levels of specific tourism research subject areas in the 10-year period of 2002–2011. A database of 37,918 author-selected keywords from 9,588 research articles in 31 tourism, hospitality, and leisure journals was created. Using the proposed framework, the database was divided into six main categories (destination; demand; travel; marketing; geographical areas; and generic terms) and 61 sub-categories. The destination category captured the most keywords, followed by demand and then marketing.     

How does smog influence domestic tourism in China? A case study of Beijing

ABSTRACT

This study took Beijing as a case to examine the potential impact of smog on the domestic demand of tourist destinations in China. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was employed to explore and confirm the causal relationships between perception of travel risk, travel dissatisfaction, negative destination and avoidance tendency. It is found that the Mainland Chinese residents have a strong perception of the potential travel risk caused by smog in Beijing. Moreover, the impact of travel risk perception on avoidance tendency is indirect and works through the mediating variables such as travel dissatisfaction or negative destination image.     

Involvement and opinion leadership in tourism

Nature-based tourism, science tourism, and ecotourism are some of the emerging and growing trends in special-interest tourism. This study utilized a southeastern sample of the United States who had an interest in travel and the environment. A modified Dillman total design method survey was used to collect the data. The study demonstrated that widely used concepts of marketing are applicable for nature-based tourism. Results indicate that highly involved nature-oriented travelers tend to be more receptive to information concerning the travel product or destination and spread that information willingly. Findings of this study suggest that opinion leaders take more trips and use slightly more information sources.     

Travel frequency of seniors tourists

Current demand for tourism is characterized by more frequent, shorter trips throughout the year. Such trends may have adverse effects on the hospitality industry but benefit the travel industry. Most current literature assumes that the variables that determine travel participation are identical to those that influence travel frequency, though there is no evidence to support this assumption. Therefore, the current study seeks to identify variables that influence travel frequency among Spanish senior tourists, who represent a key target market for the tourism industry. The results specify that gender, self-perceived economic status, and self-perceived time available variables strongly determine Spanish seniors' travel frequency.     

Characteristics of family reunion travelers

Destinations have endowed resources, created resources, and supporting factors that make it attractive and form the basis for destination competitiveness. Local assets and destination marketing organization resources make some target markets more viable than others. This research identified trip characteristics that make some destinations, like one with a hub and spoke system offering a variety of day trips/activities, more attractive to family reunion travelers and this information can aid in the development/management of indispensable products/services/infrastructure adding value over other destinations. By exploring family reunion travelers' characteristics, practitioners can more effectively develop and market their destinations to this niche group travel market segment.     

Modelling Australian domestic and international inbound travel: a spatial–temporal approach

In this paper Australian domestic and international inbound travel are modelled by an anisotropic dynamic spatial lag panel Origin-Destination (OD) travel flow model. Spatial OD travel flow models have traditionally been applied in a single cross-sectional context, where the spatial structure is assumed to have reached its long run equilibrium and temporal dynamics are not explicitly considered. On the other hand, spatial effects are rarely accounted for in traditional tourism demand modelling. We attempt to address this dichotomy between spatial modelling and time series modelling in tourism research by using a spatial-temporal model. In particular, tourism behaviour is modelled as travel flows between regions. Temporal dependencies are accounted for via the inclusion of autoregressive components, while spatial autocorrelations are explicitly accounted for at both the origin and the destination. We allow the strength of spatial autocorrelation to exhibit seasonal variations, and we allow for the possibility of asymmetry between capital-city neighbours and non-capital-city neighbours. Significant temporal and spatial dynamics have been uncovered for both domestic and international tourism demand. For example we find strong seasonal temporal autocorrelations, significant trends and significant spatial autocorrelations at both the origin and the destination. Moreover, the spatial patterns are found to be most significant during peak holiday seasons. Understanding these patterns in tourist behaviour has important implications for tourism operators.     

Tourism demand forecasting models: Choice of appropriate variable to represent tourists' cost of living

Price is generally regarded as a major determinant of demand. Tourism has two price elements - the cost of travel to the destination and the cost of living for tourists in the destination. Previous studies where econometric forecasting models have been developed for international tourism demand usually take the consumer price index in a country to be a proxy for the cost of tourism in that country owing to lack of appropriate data. This article attempts to evaluate the performance of proxy variables compared with a specific tourists' cost of living variable within the context of tourism demand forecasting models.     

Modeling domestic holiday tourism demand in Australia: Problems and solutions

An econometric model is very useful for understanding the underlying relationship between tourism demand and economic variables such as income and travel prices. However, a long time series horizon of data is essential to run an econometric model that is consistent with economic theory. Although time series data on the number of domestic trips and visitor nights in Australia are available since 1978–79, breaks in the time series in different years have made it difficult to estimate a domestic holiday demand model. It is because the data series in different periods are not directly comparable. In this study, a simple data adjustment technique has been used to obtain comparable data series. Among several econometric demand models, a single equation multivariate time series demand model in a double log linear functional form was found to be the most appropriate and practical model to estimate and analyze the demand parameters of domestic holiday travel in Australia. However, the model with variables in level terms was observed having the “spurious regression problem” which has been corrected using the cointegration and error correction mechanisms. The estimated income and price elasticity of domestic holiday travel demand are consistent with economic theory and therefore can be used for forecasting and other purposes.     

社会网络视角下旅游线路研究——以新疆为例

多目的地旅游已成为当前一种重要的出行方式,因此,合理设置和安排旅游线路是旅游市场供需双方共同关注的焦点。但以往的研究仍停留在线路的描述上,未能对其成因进行系统阐释。在梳理和评述相关文献的基础上,文章以新疆目的地网络为例,进行问卷调查,并利用社会网络视角及分析方法,通过整体网和个体网两个层面探寻旅游线路形成的内在机理。网络分析结果表明,新疆已初步形成以喀纳斯为中心的目的地网络,而以中心度和结构洞为代表的目的地网络结构特征是多样化旅游线路形成的关键所在。研究结论对现有旅游线路研究在理论、研究方法和实践方面有重要启示和指导意义。     

Destination selection by smart tourists: the case of Isfahan,Iran

The paper is concerned with tourist behavior when selecting a tourist destination to visit in the age of smart tourism associated with modern information communication technologies. The theory of planned behavior is applied in a study of the issues with particular reference to Isfahan which is a very popular tourist center in Iran and one where technological innovations are being introduced to facilitate tourism. Results reveal that tourist attitude significantly and directly affects intention to travel to a smart destination while behavioral control does not have such an effect. Tourist beliefs and subjective norms are additionally found to positively influence visit intention and destination selection. Smartness emerges as an important force in shaping demand, to which the tourism industry must be responsive and attempt to ensure suitable provision. The research enhances knowledge and understanding of these aspects of the smart tourism phenomenon, the literature about which is still relatively limited, and further work is recommended.     

Utilizing environmental information and pricing strategies to reduce externalities of tourism: the case of invasive species in the Galapagos

The increase in demand for nature-based tourism brings economic and educational benefits but risks the introduction of invasive species. Increasing the length of tourist trips can better balance these benefits and risks by maintaining revenues while reducing the number of unique contacts with tourists. Changing the relative prices of trips can induce tourists to take longer trips. We hypothesized that providing information about the negative externalities of tourism could improve the effectiveness of such pricing strategies.

We administered one of two discrete choice surveys to tourists considering a trip to the Galapagos. One of the surveys described the Galapagos as a fragile ecosystem susceptible to invasive species; the second described it as a standard nature-based destination. For each sample, we estimated the probability of the tourist choosing a short versus long trip, given the tourist's personal information and trip options presented to him. We then simulated the demand for trips using three pricing strategies. We found that providing information on invasive species significantly increased the efficacy of strategic pricing. We propose using a two-prong approach to tourism management: educate potential tourists about the islands’ vulnerabilities, and simultaneously increase the per-day cost of short trips relative to that of longer trips.     

The impact of distance on international tourism demand

This study examines the impact of distance on outbound travel demand by comparing departures from 92 source markets to over 4700 discrete destination pairs. Travel to land neighbours dominates outbound travel, accounting for 53% of all departures. Share of departures for travel >5000 km was typically 3% or lower. The study also identified different travel flows depending on the origin region, with share of outbound travel a function of the number and size of receiving countries, as well as the presence of an Effective Tourism Exclusion Zone, a zone where little or no tourism activity occurs.     

The relationship between travel constraints and destination image: A case study of Brunei

This study evaluated the relationship between travel constraints and destination image of young travelers to Brunei. This study found a significant relationship between destination image and travel constraints during the early decision-making process. This study concluded travel constraints impact on the formation of destination image during the early decision-making process. Study results contribute to the body of knowledge in two areas. First, four dimensions of travel constraints and three dimensions of perceived destination image were identified. In addition to the 3-dimension hierarchal constraints (structural, intrapersonal, and interpersonal), a new constraint dimension (unfamiliar cultural constraints) was revealed. Second, this study confirmed the relationship between travel constraints and destination image. Relatively few studies address the role of travel constraints to the formation of destination image. This is the first study providing empirical evidence demonstrating Brunei’s destination image and travel constraints impact young travelers during the early decision-making process.