On the measurement of dynamic effects of integration

By allowing a freer interplay of market forces, the market liberalization involved in closer economic integration can improve the efficiency of productive factors. This permits greater output from the same inputs. A side effect of this improved efficiency is an improved investment climate in the integrating region. This in turn will result in a higher investment rate, thereby augmenting the initial output gains by providing the economy with more resources. The same sort of induced capital formation can also boost investment in human capital and knowledge capital. Primitive calculations of the size and timing of these induced capital formation can be made using an aggregate GDP function. A rough approximation of the adjustment path shows that the extra investment will stimulate growth for decades, although half of the total effect will occur in the first 10 to 50 years.     

A dynamic theory of the declining aggregated labor income share: Intangible capital vs. tangible capital

Reports of the literature documenting the declining labor share of income have increased greatly in the past few years, which is opposed to one of the famous “Kaldor's stylized facts” of growth. The declining labor income share has been observed since the 1980s in a number of countries, and especially in the United States. Recent studies have revealed the following five major driving forces of the declining labor share: (i) supercycles and boom-busts, (ii) rising and faster depreciation, (iii) superstar effects and consolidation, (iv) capital substitution and automation, and (v) globalization and labor bargaining power. We set up a two-sector optimal growth model with the R&D intermediate sectors producing intangible capital. By integrating driving factors (ii) through (iv) above into the model, we demonstrate the long-run decline of the aggregated labor income share.     

Assessing emerging technologies—Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies

Technology Assessment reflecting on R&D and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (> 10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socio-economic context of a technical product in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media. In this paper we propose to adapt the well known tool ‘roadmapping’ to contribute to the solution of this problem. This poses new challenges for roadmapping methodology in terms of level of aggregation and timeframe.     

On the real effects of inflation in open economies: theory and empirics

Based on the quarterly data from four open economies (the US, the UK, Canada, and Italy) and estimated correlations and impulse responses within the traditional vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis, we find that inflation, both in the short and long term, negatively affects consumption and investment, and has a positive influence on the current account. We propose an infinite-horizon optimizing model of an open economy with a fixed rate of time preference that explains these empirics. In this type of economy, households consume both durable and non-durable goods, firms operate under costly investment, and all the transactions involving consumption and investment are subject to cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints. Employing the new ‘sign restriction’ identification procedure due to Uhlig (J Mone’t Econ 52(2)381–419, 2005), we corroborate the empirical validity of the proposed model. In order to verify the robustness of our results, we consider another shock, namely, productivity shock in our empirical analysis and find that while productivity shock dominates in the case of the US, inflationary shock has a dominating effect in the case of the UK, Canada, and Italy.     

Substitution and expansion effects in production theory: The case of joint production

This paper is concerned with a systematic examination of what happens when a firm that has been in equilibrium at certain prices of inputs and prices of outputs experiences a change in these prices. The mutual effects between inputs and between outputs and the cross effects between inputs and outputs are explored by means of various kinds of decomposition equations in production theory. A definition of the “normal” technology is given to show that inputs are not gross substitutes, nor are outputs, and that the input-output relations are not regressive.     

A dynamic framework for analyzing technology standardisation using network analysis and game theory

As more technologies and industries converge, technology standards are more likely to be a strategic factor for firms and governments that are interested in the market with standards-based competition. From the previous research, a new standardisation framework was proposed by combining network analysis and the game theory model but was constrained by feasibility and dynamic approach. In this study, the case of the standards war between HD-DVD and Blu-ray was analyzed with patent data as an empirical case considering a dynamic framework. With this framework, we observed a change in a firm’s technology relations and could predict the decline in a firm’s preference and the shift of equilibrium ahead of Toshiba’s resignation.     

Overcoming free riding in multi-party computations—The anonymous case

This paper addresses the question of multi-party computation in a model with asymmetric information. Each agent has a private value (secret), but in contrast to standard models, the agent incurs a cost when retrieving the secret. There is a social choice function the agents would like to compute and implement. All agents would like to perform a joint computation, which input is their vector of secrets. However, agents would like to free-ride on others' contribution.A mechanism which elicits players' secrets and performs the desired computation defines a game. A mechanism is ‘appropriate’ if it (weakly) implements the social choice function for all secret vectors. namely, if there exists an equilibrium in which it is able to elicit (sufficiently many) agents' secrets and perform the computation, for all possible secret vectors. We show that ‘appropriate’ mechanisms approach agents sequentially and that they have low communication complexity.     

Job security regulations and the dynamic demand for industrial labor in India and Zimbabwe

Government permission is required to dismiss or lay off even a single worker in India and Zimbabwe. Dynamic labor demand equations, derived from a CES cost minimization model, are estimated for 64 manufacturing industries in these two countries. The data reveal a substantial reduction in demand for workers but no slowing in adjustment of number of employees following enactment of the labor laws. In India, no comparable reduction in labor demand occurred in small scale plants uncovered by the job security regulations. Among larger Indian plants, the drop in labor demand is estimated to be largest in industries where: coverage of the legislation is more extensive, private ownership dominates, and there are fewer union members.     

Termination of dynamic contracts in an equilibrium labor market model

In an equilibrium model of the labor market, workers and firms enter into dynamic contracts that can potentially last forever, but are subject to optimal terminations. Upon termination, the firm hires a new worker, and the worker who is terminated receives a termination contract from the firm and is then free to go back to the labor market to seek new employment opportunities and enter into new dynamic contracts. The model permits only two types of equilibrium terminations that resemble, respectively, the two kinds of labor market separations that are typically observed in practice: involuntary layoffs and voluntary retirements. The model allows for the simultaneous determination of a large set of important labor market variables including equilibrium unemployment and labor force participation. An algorithm is formulated for computing the model's equilibria. I then simulate the model to show quantitatively that the model is consistent with a set of important stylized facts of the labor market.     

On modeling task,skill and technology upgrading effects of globalization with heterogeneous labor

We adapt Yeaple's (2005) heterogeneous agent framework to model firms in the North as making explicit offshore outsourcing decisions to cheap-labor economies. We highlight how firms' technology transformations due to globalization will induce skill upgrading in the North, increase aggregate productivity, average wages and therefore total welfare at the cost of increased wage inequalities. We analytically derive conditions under which all consumers – including lower-skilled workers – might nevertheless gain from the surge of offshore outsourcing. We also show that extending the model to the more realistic case of multi-product firms tends to boost the potential welfare gains.     

Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method—A case study in Henan Province, China

Taking Henan Province of China as an example, we computed and analyzed the ecological footprint (EF) in 1983–2006. The results showed that the EF in Henan Province quadrupled in the 23 years, but its ecological carrying capacity (EC) was rather low and was in a state of slow decline, indicating that Henan's ecological deficit (ED) had become a remarkable social problem. Therefore, the major drivers of the EF's change were analyzed. According to the simulations with STIRPAT model, the major drivers of Henan's EF were human population (P), GDP per capita (A₁), quadratic term of GDP per capita (A₂), percent of economy excluded in the service sector (Ta₁) and percent of urban population (Tb₁). However, these drivers themselves had strong collinearity, which might produce some uncertain impact to the final results. In order to avoid the impact of collinearity, the method of partial least squares (PLS) was used. The results showed that the major drivers of EF were P, A₁, A₂ and Tb₁. Ta₁ was excluded. Compared with the results by the STIRPAT model, which showed that P is the most dominant driver and the effect of the other drivers could almost be ignored, the results by PLS method were considered as more reasonable and acceptable because the impacts of the A (Affluence) and T (Technology) conditions to the regional EF were still too important to be ignored. In addition, the results acquired by both methods showed that the curvilinear relationship between economic development and ecological impact (EF) or the classical EKC hypothesis didn't exist in Henan Province.     

A dynamic theory of war and peace

In every period, an aggressive country seeks concessions from a non-aggressive country with private information about their cost. The aggressive country can force concessions via war, and both countries suffer from limited commitment. We characterize the efficient sequential equilibria. We show that war is necessary to sustain peace and that temporary wars can emerge because of the coarseness of public information. In the long run, temporary wars can be sustained only if countries are patient, if the cost of war is large, and if the cost of concessions is low.     

Testing static game theory with dynamic experiments: A case study of public goods

Game theory provides predictions of behavior in many one-shot games. On the other hand, most experimenters usually play repeated games with subjects, to provide experience. To avoid subjects rationally employing strategies that are appropriate for the repeated game, experimenters typically employ a “random strangers” design in which subjects are randomly paired with others in the session. There is some chance that subjects will meet in multiple rounds, but it is claimed that this chance is so small that subjects will behave as if they are in a one-shot environment. We present evidence from public goods experiments that this claim is not always true.     

Nonlinearity in dynamic adjustment: Semiparametric estimation of panel labor supply

We estimate a semiparametric dynamic panel data model by the local linear kernel method and we interpret the slope of the nonparametric component function as a varying slope coefficient. Thus, the slope coefficient is a smooth, but otherwise unknown, function of some of the regressors. A Monte Carlo experiment is reported to examine the finite sample performance of the local linear estimator. We apply the estimation method to a labor supply equation for men from the triannual Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Specification tests based on the estimated labor supply elasticities, partial adjustment coefficients, and residuals demonstrate the improvements from a semiparametric partially linear model. Our empirical results point to a need by economists to revisit the issue of the speed of labor market adjustment to policy induced shifts in labor demand and to take more formal econometric account of heterogeneity in wage effects when studying the distributional consequences of tax reforms for labor supply earnings. First version received: July 2000/Final version received: January 2001     

Threat and morale effects in the theory of wages

This paper constructs a simple general equilibrium model in which ‘threat’ and ‘morale’ effects influence the determination of union and non-union wage rates. A widely taught and well-known conclusion of conventional theory, namely that a rise in the union wage will also raise non-union wages, is shown to be incorrect: the model predicts exactly the opposite. A new version of the morale effect is also suggested.     

The effects of lay participation in courts — A cross-country analysis

Legal philosophers like Montesquieu, Hegel and Tocqueville have argued that lay participation in judicial decision-making would have benefits reaching far beyond the realm of the legal system narrowly understood. From an economic point of view, lay participation in judicial decision-making can be interpreted as a renunciation of an additional division of labor, which is expected to cause foregone benefits in terms of the costs as well as the quality of judicial decision-making. In order to be justified, these foregone benefits need to be overcompensated by other – actually realized – benefits of at least the same magnitude. This paper discusses pros and cons of lay participation, presents a new database and tests some of the theoretically derived hypotheses empirically. The effects of lay participation on the judicial system, a number of governance variables but also on economic performance indicators are rather modest. A proxy representing historic experiences with any kind of lay participation is the single most robust variable.     

劳动合同法的成本效应分析

很多企业家担心劳动合同法实施后会增加企业成本,因此不少企业赶在该法实施之前采取规避措施.本文通过广泛企业调查,对劳动合同法的成本效应进行了实证分析,发现劳动合同法实施后带来的成本增幅存在较大差异.从规模角度看,对小规模企业影响较大;从不同所有制形式看,对私营企业影响较大;从行业看,对服务业、建筑业等行业的影响较大.文章建议从三方面完善劳动合同法的实施.     

云南省大学生到村任职的现状调查与研究

选聘高校毕业生到村任职是新时期我党加强和改善农村基层政权、建设社会主义新农村、全面实现建设小康社会的重大举措。然而,目前大学生村官的状况如何？存在哪些问题？如何使大学生村官队伍建设成为长期战略行动？以云南省大学生村官、乡镇领导、村委会和村民为调查对象,通过对其生活状况、工作状况、思想状况等方面的调查,分析云南省大学生村官存在的主要问题,并提出完善云南大学生村官的建议。