适应性治理视域下全球数字税制变革的再审视

为应对数字经济对全球税收治理带来的巨大挑战，国际社会形成了单边税收措施、双边税收协定和多边共识三类治理方案。三类治理方案间并非相互割裂分离，而是形成了相互影响、错综复杂、冲突与共识并存的“税收治理机制复合体”。适应性治理理论从演化、反思和程序三个视角为当下正在发生的全球数字税制变革提供了整体的解释框架。我国应在此复合系统中找准生态定位，尊重国际税收规则“博弈—演化”规律，不断运用“反思—调整”的方法推动这一复合体的平衡协调发展，从而实现国际税收治理和国内税收治理的良性互动。     

经济数字化下国际税收规则的变革：趋势、机制与影响

在应对经济数字化等国际税收挑战的背景下,国际税收规则进入快速变革期,单边、双边和多边改革方案先后出台。2021年联合国税收协定范本修订,G20/OECD包容性框架下的“双支柱”方案达成广泛共识,这标志着国际税收领域百年未有之大变局正在拉开序幕,对未来国际税收的治理必然产生深远的影响。本文详细阐述经济数字化对国际税收规则在理论和实践方面产生的深层次影响,分析国际税收规则发生变革的原因、机制和趋势,同时展望未来各国的政策选择。     

全球数字服务税发展态势与应对策略研究

面对数字经济时代国际税收治理竞争格局加快重塑,中国作为数字经济生产大国、消费大国和输出大国,不能甘做全球数字经济税收权益争夺之战的旁观者,需从建立公平、合理、有效的国际税收新秩序高度,做好应对外部税收环境变化的思想准备和工作储备.立足长远大势把握当前形势,兼顾短期应对和中长期发展,不仅要积极参与数字税国际规则和标准制定,提前筹划应对单边数字税措施方案,还要不断完善国内数字经济税收征管法律法规,依托数字技术领先优势提升税收征管水平.     

OECD应对数字经济的征税方案及启示

近年来,随着数字经济蓬勃发展,税制改革已成为各国关注焦点,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、欧盟等经济体积极推进数字税收规则调整,法国、英国、肯尼亚、印度等国则先后推出单边数字服务税相关举措.其中,OECD提出的包容性税收改革框架BEPS,有助于解决各国因数字经济而导致的税基侵蚀和利润转移问题,减少数字经济为国际税收带来...     

基于OECD双支柱框架的我国数字经济税收挑战与应对

经济数字化改变了跨国企业的商业模式,改变了传统国际税收征管规则,也对中国税收制度提出了迫切的完善要求.数字经济给税收制度管辖权确定、税基确定和扣缴方式等方面带来挑战.许多国家已经采取单边措施对数字经济征税,对原有国际税收秩序造成冲击.经合组织发布"双支柱"框架,对税收要素进行多方面创新,力求为数字经济领域国际税制改革提供相对一致的制度参考,以应对数字经济税收难题,维护国际税收秩序.在国内外数字企业正在蓬勃发展的情势下,中国可以参考双支柱框架,提升现有制度适应性,建立数字经济税收制度,应对数字经济带来的税收挑战.     

数字税征管国际经验借鉴与启示

近年来,全球数字经济快速发展,为应对数字经济领域税收流失等问题,部分国际组织及经济体出台数字税方案。本文梳理了国际数字税政策出台情况和特点,总结了数字税征管存在的难题,在此基础上提出对策建议。     

数字服务税的国际实践及应对思考

在当今不断发展变化的互联网商务环境中,科技进步和商业运作模式的发展使得公司不需要实体存在就可以与消费者之间产生经济联系。然而这种数字经济联系混淆了收入来源及谁拥有征税权的问题,破坏了原本的国际税收规则,故有必要建立新的国际税收原则平衡各国之间的税收利益。由于短时间内无法达成国际协议,部分税收利益受损国陆续开始征收数字服务税,致力于明确和解决税基侵蚀和利润转移问题。我国作为数字第二大国,有必要积极应对数字税问题。鉴于目前我国数字经济实情和数字税开征国在征收过程中存在的诸多争议,我国没有必要在短时间内将数字税作为新税种设立,而更应当提高在国际谈判中的参与度,完善现有税制,在国际税收谈判中尽可能把握主动权。     

数字经济背景下我国税收面临的挑战与应对

信息技术革命掀起数字经济发展的浪潮,推动新的经济全球化,世界经济迎来百年未有之大变局,既有的全球税收秩序和格局被打破,现有的税收制度面临严峻挑战,引起各国高度关注,围绕数字经济展开的新一轮世界性税制改革正在酝酿之中。我国应深入研究数字经济带来的冲击,积极应对数字经济对税收产生的挑战,并结合当前国际社会公认的解决方案,提出既适合我国国情又符合世界公认原则的应对策略。     

数字经济国际税收规则变革趋势与中国应对举措

面对突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情,数字经济仍展现出强大的韧性与活力.逆势上扬的数字经济对渐进式的国际税收规则改革提出了全方位的挑战.G20、OECD致力于制定应对经济数字化税收挑战解决方案,提出了“统一方法”应对方案,而部分国家出于维护本国税收利益采取了单边行动,新一轮的国际税收改革博弈已开始.我国作为全球数字经济第二大国,在遵循税收公平和税收中性原则的基础上,需尽快改革常设机构认定等数字经济税收规则,运用数字技术提高我国数字化税收征管水平,推动数字经济征税权分配的国际合作.     

欧盟数字税协调及影响分析

随着数字经济的兴起,传统国际税收制度遭受严重冲击.新业态导致剩余利润集中,国家间税收利益冲突升级,以美欧对峙为代表.2018年3月21日,欧盟发布关于数字经济公平征税的一揽子计划,因未一致通过暂时搁浅.而欧盟成员国相继开征单边数字服务税加剧了国际税收规则碎片化发展态势.对此,欧盟数字税协调存在政治层面缺乏合作共识、制度...     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.