Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn

We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the season‐average price projections for U.S. corn as published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), an important issue given reduced resources and increased program scrutiny within the Federal Government. This study is the first in the literature to evaluate the WASDE corn projections relative to futures adjusted forecasts throughout the forecasting cycle using a lengthy evaluation period (1980/81–2012/13). We find that WASDE projections provide lower RMSEs relative to futures adjusted forecasts for 9 of the 16 forecast periods, 4 of which are statistically different. Encompassing tests show that WASDE projections often provide incremental information not present in the futures adjusted forecasts. Composite forecasts based on futures adjusted forecasts and WASDE projections reduced the RMSEs over all forecast periods by an average 12–16%. Favorable average trading profits may be generated for some forecast months using WASDE projections. Overall, our results suggest that WASDE projections of the U.S. corn season‐average price provide useful information to the market and could enhance the efficiency of the agricultural sector.     

Nonlinearities in the U.S. corn‐ethanol‐oil‐gasoline price system

We use a smooth transition vector error correction model to assess price relationships within the U.S. ethanol industry. Monthly ethanol, corn, oil, and gasoline prices from 1990 to 2008 are used in the analysis. Results indicate the existence of long‐run relationships among the prices analyzed. Strong links between energy and food prices are identified.     

The economic impacts of technology and climate change: New evidence from U.S. corn yields

Over the past century, U.S. farmers have been offered a steady stream of new agricultural technologies, and more recently, experienced climate change. Because these two events have been occurring simultaneously, identifying their separate effects is difficult, and misimputation is easy. This article explicitly examines the economics of technical change and the interaction between weather and technology as revealed in a half century of panel data on U.S. Midwest rainfed state‐average corn yields. Observed yields reflect two components: yield potential and damage to the potential caused by weather and pests. Yield potential is modeled as a stochastic production frontier where nitrogen fertilization, public corn research, and introduction and adoption of biotech corn seeds impact yield potential and excess heat impacts nitrogen productivity. The yield‐damage/damage‐control function permits biotech corn plants to abate adverse effects of weather and pest events. Results include the following: nitrogen use, public corn research, and biotech seed‐corn adoption increase yield potential; soil moisture stress reduces yield potential, and excess heat severely reduces nitrogen productivity. Biotech corn plants abate yield damage caused by soil moisture stress but not excess heat.     

Can the U.S. ethanol industry compete in the alternative fuels market?

The U.S. ethanol fuel industry has experienced preferential treatment from federal and state governments ever since the Energy Tax Act of 1978 exempted 10% ethanol/gasoline blend (gasohol) from the federal excise tax. Combined with a 54c/ /gal ethanol import tariff, this exemption was designed to provide incentives for the establishment and development of a U.S. ethanol industry. Despite these tax exemptions, until recently, the U.S. ethanol fuel industry was unable to expand from a limited regional market. Ethanol was dominated in the market by MTBE (methyl‐tertiary‐butyl ether). Only after MTBE was found to contaminate groundwater and consequently banned in many states did the demand for ethanol expand nationally. Limit pricing on the part of MTBE refiners is one hypothesis that may explain this lack of ethanol entry into the fuel‐additives market. As a test of this hypothesis, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model of the ethanol fuel market is developed. The results support the hypothesis of limit‐pricing behavior on the part of MTBE refiners, and suggest the U.S. corn‐based ethanol industry is vulnerable to limit‐price competition, which could recur. The dependence of the corn‐based ethanol price on supply determinants limits U.S. ethanol refiners' ability to price compete with sugar‐cane‐based ethanol refiners. Without federal support, U.S. ethanol refiners may find it difficult to compete with cheaper sugar‐cane‐refined ethanol, chiefly from Brazil.     

A Price Analysis of U.S. Agricultural Exports in East Asian Markets

This paper examines the price competition between U.S. agricultural exports and that of its competitors in East Asia. The results show weak price competition in Japan's corn and soybean markets, and no price competition in the wheat market. U.S. cotton exports to Japan face strong price competition. In Hong Kong, U.S. market shares are low, while the demand for its rice, corn, soybeans and cotton is elastic. For South Korea and Taiwan, improved political relationships between China, South Korea, and Taiwan have caused the U.S. to lose market shares to China.     

A Comparative Study of U.S. and Japanese Meat Consumption Using Age-Period-Cohort Decomposition

Household life cycle has been widely used as a determinant of consumer behavior and a basis for market segmentation. Repeated cross-section data on the meat share in household consumption in the United States and Japan, classified by age and period, are decomposed into age, period, and birth cohort effects. Empirical evidence suggests the following: (a) the cohort effect is the largest in the United States, whereas the age effect is the largest in Japan; (b) the U.S. age effect increases for the age group 15–34, whereas the Japanese age effect decreases for the age group 25–34; (c) the Japanese period effect reveals a clear downward trend; and (d) the U.S. cohort effect decreases for the birth cohort 1900–1949. Furthermore, implications for meat producers and sellers are provided.     

How integrated are world beef markets? The case of Australian and U.S. beef markets

The objective of the paper is to examine market integration between Australian and U.S. beef prices at the farmgate level. If these two prices are found to be integrated then it can be alleged that Australian beef prices can be used as a world price in empirical analyses and/or as a ‘reference price’ to measure the level of support accorded the U.S. beef sector. Co-integration analysis and a time-varying parameter estimation procedure based on the Kalman filter model are applied. The paper distinguishes between steer and cow beef segments and it uses monthly data over the 1972:1 to 1993:2 period. The results indicate that Australian and U.S. beef prices are co-integrated, albeit not fully and that the degree of convergence between the various price pairs has not substantially increased over time. The results also suggest that Australian prices can not unequivocally be adopted as a world price in empirical analyses.     

Generic Advertising of U.S. Lamb

ABSTRACT

Generic advertising of U.S. lamb by the U.S. sheep and lamb industry is an effort to reverse an almost continual decline in the industry since World War II. This analysis explores the answers to three related questions: (1) What have been the effects of the generic lamb advertising on U.S. and foreign sheep, lamb, and wool markets? (2) Has the generic lamb advertising program effectively increased the consumption of domestically produced lamb as intended rather than imported lamb? (3) What have been the returns to U.S. sheep producers, feeders, and packers who pay for the advertising? Using a 70-equation, non-spatial, price equilibrium, simultaneous econometric simulation model of the world sheep, lamb, and wool markets, the analysis concludes that the U.S. lamb industry’s generic lamb advertising program has positively impacted their markets, enhanced profitability of the industry, and increased the industry’s share of domestic lamb consumption.     

No News Is Good News: Stochastic Parameters versus Media Coverage Indices in Demand Models after Food Scares

We develop a stochastic parameter approach to model the time-varying impacts of food scares on consumption, as an alternative to the inclusion of news coverage indices in the demand function. We empirically test the methodology on data from four food scares, the 1982 heptachlor milk contamination in Oahu, Hawaii and the bovine spongiform encephalopathy and two Escherichia coli scares on U.S. meat demand over the period 1993–9. Results show that the inclusion of time-varying parameters in demand models enables the capturing of the impact of food safety information and provides better short-term forecasts.     

Does the Exchange Rate Matter to Agricultural Bilateral Trade between Canada and the U.S.?

This study examines the effects of the Canada–U.S. exchange rate on bilateral trade of agricultural goods between the two countries and on U.S. farm income. Special attention is given to agricultural trade between the two countries under the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA). This study utilizes two time series models: the vector error correction model (VECM) and the vector moving average model (VMA) with quarterly time series data from 1983 to 2000. It is found that the exchange rate has a significant impact on U.S. agricultural trade with Canada, but the impact on U.S. agricultural price and income is insignificant. The exchange rate between the two currencies is found to be weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector, which answers a fundamental question about the role of the exchange rate in Canada–U.S. bilateral trade for agricultural products. In addition, the results point to a significant, though minimal, effect on bilateral trade due to CUSTA.     

U.S. corn exports: the role of the exchange rate

Time series econometric methods are applied to monthly observational data over the period 1978-1942 on real exchange rates, real corn prices, corn export sales, and corn export shipments for the United States. In-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast results are used to discern whether exchange rates have elicited systematic responses in U.S. corn prices, sales and shipments, and whether the dynamic transmission mechanisms tying these variables together have changed over time. A structural break appears to have occurred in early 1985. No cointegration is found between exchange rates, price, sales, and shipments in either sub-period. Influences are all short-run or between stationary variables. The role of the exchange rate appears to have moderated in the post-1985 period. Implications for policy analysis are discussed.     

Demand for Beef from Cattle Administered Growth Hormones or Fed Genetically Modified Corn: A Comparison of Consumers in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States

We compare consumer valuations of beef ribeye steaks from cattle produced without growth hormones or genetically modified corn in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Results suggest that French consumers place a higher value on beef from cattle that have not been administered added growth hormones than U.S. consumers; however, valuations of non-hormone-treated beef are statistically indistinguishable across Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Results also suggest that European consumers place a much higher value on beef from cattle that have not been fed genetically modified corn than U.S. consumers.     

Pricing to Market Behavior by Canadian and U.S. Agri-food Exporters: Evidence from Wheat, Pulse and Apples

A fixed-effects model to control for time variation in marginal costs is employed to pinpoint evidence of price discriminatory behavior of Canadian and U.S. exporters of agri-food products. We test for evidence of pricing to market behavior and whether price discrimination or commodity/country characteristics may provide a plausible explanation. A distinguishing feature of our approach is to examine the time-series properties of the data by the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller and recently developed panel unit root test. The panel data set employed in this paper consists of annual exchange rates and export prices for three agri-food products (wheat, pulse and apples) exported by Canada and the U.S. in foreign markets during 1980–98. Our fixed-effects model suggests that U.S. exporters are sensitive to exchange rate changes, while Canadian exporters in most cases raised price markups in response to a depreciated currency in overseas markets. The results highlight the differences in pricing policy that both countries employ to merchandise agri-food products in export markets.     

How financial investment distorts food prices: evidence from U.S. grain markets

Convergence between commodity futures prices and the underlying physical assets at each contract's expiration date is a pivotal condition for the market's functioning. Between 2005 and 2010, convergence failed for several U.S. grain markets. This article presents a price pressure‐augmented commodity storage model that links the scale of nonconvergence to financial investment channeled through indices, which are traded in commodity futures markets. The model is empirically tested, using Markov regime‐switching regression analysis. Regression results strongly support the model's predicted link between index investment and the extent of nonconvergence for three grains traded at the Chicago Board of Trade: wheat, corn, and soybeans.     

U.S. Agricultural Trade with Mexico

Abstract

This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico.     

Land Tenure and the Adoption of Conservation Practices

We use a logit adoption model with data on 941 U.S. corn producers from the 1996 Agricultural Resource Management Study to analyze the influence of land tenure on the adoption of conservation practices. We extend previous analyses by distinguishing renters according to lease type and by distinguishing practices according to the timing of costs and returns. We find that cash-renters are less likely than owner-operators to use conservation tillage, but share-renters are not. Both cash-renters and share-renters are less likely than owner-operators to adopt practices that provide benefits only over the longer term (grassed waterways, stripcropping, and contour farming).     

Warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the U.S. crop insurance program

Likely climate change impacts include damages to agricultural production resulting from increased exposure to extreme heat. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding impacts on crop insurance programs. We utilize a panel of U.S. corn yield data to predict the effect of warming temperatures on the mean and variance of yields, as well as crop insurance premium rates and producer subsidies. While we focus on corn, we demonstrate that the subsidy impacts are likely to carry over to other major program crops. We find that warming decreases mean yields and increases yield risk on average, which results in higher premium rates. Under a 1°C warming scenario, we find that premium rates at the 90% coverage level will increase by 39% on average; however, there is considerable statistical uncertainty around this average as the 95% confidence interval spans from 22% to 61%. We also find evidence of extensive cross‐sectional differences as the county‐level rate impacts range from a 10% reduction to a 63% increase. Results indicate that exposure to extreme heat and changes in the coefficient of variation are large drivers of the impacts. Under the 1°C warming scenario, we find that annual subsidy payments for the crop insurance program could increase by as much as $1.5 billion, representing a 22% increase relative to current levels. This estimate increases to 3.7 billion (57%) under a 2°C warming scenario. Our results correspond to a very specific counterfactual: the marginal effect of warming temperatures under current technology, production, and crop insurance enrollments. These impacts are shown to be smaller than the forecasted impacts under a commonly used end‐of‐century general circulation model for even the most optimistic CO₂ emissions projection.     

Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability:

The effect of real exchange rate variability on the demand for agricultural imports by developing countries has potentially important implications for U.S. exporters because of the potential for expanded trade. This study uses the Edwards model (1987) to investigate variations in monetary factors, terms-of-trade, and trade policy (openness) as sources of Trinidad and Tobago's real exchange rate variability. Given that the influence of these factors on the determination of real exchange rate variability may be affected by the way in which trade-weighted-exchange-rate indexes are constructed, indexes for corn and wheat were used. The results indicate that although reductions in terms-of-trade variation yield reductions in exchange rate variability, monetary disturbances display both of the real-exchange-rate-variability-increasing and decreasing effects depending on the index used. Thus, the results do not support any clear set of policy actions through which export opportunities could be expanded for U.S. agricultural commodities.     

Modeling price transmission between farm and retail prices: a soft switches approach

Vector error correction models (VECM) are used to model price transmission when farm and retail prices are cointegrated. To allow for nonlinearity in the cointegration process, researchers may specify thresholds to break the error correction process into regimes according to whether the retail price is above, below, or close to its equilibrium value given farm prices.  However, because the coefficients in a VECM can change when there is movement from one regime to another, the model can be discontinuous.  This implies sudden, “hard” regime changes. In this study, we extend the threshold VECM to include features of smooth transition autoregression (STAR) models. Our approach allows for gradual, soft regime changes.  An empirical application to retail cheese and farm milk prices is presented.     

Managing phosphorous soil dynamics over space and time

Understanding the relationship between soil fertility dynamics and crop response is conceptually appealing. Even more appealing is comprehension of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of these connections over a production surface and across seasons. But gaining knowledge about these interactions is difficult because nutrient carryover dynamics and crop response to inputs are determined simultaneously on the one hand, and sequentially on the other. A second problem enters when crops are rotated, for example, the corn [Zea mays (L.) Merr.]–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] system commonly practiced in the U.S. Corn Belt. This article examines nutrient carryover–crop response dynamics using data from a corn‐soybean, variable rate nitrogen (N), and phosphorous (P) experiment conducted over five years in Minnesota, USA. Site‐specific corn response to N and P and soybean response to P is estimated with a P carryover equation. Estimates are used in a dynamic programming model to determine site‐specific optimal N and P fertilizer policies, soil P evolution, and profitability. The net present value of managing N and P site‐specifically is compared to a strategy in which these inputs are managed uniformly following Extension guidelines. The results suggest that when P carryover is accounted for in determining optimal P fertilizer rates, returns to the variable rate strategies are higher than returns to a uniform or whole‐field management strategy.