Saving,investment, fiscal deficits,and the external indebtedness of developing countries

This paper investigates selected aspects of the external indebtedness of the developing countries. It examines both the theoretical and empirical sides of the debt servicing capacity issue, focussing on the role of domestic savings and investment as well as the budget deficits of the public sector in the recent widening of their current account deficits. The results of the study do not support the proposition that increases in external indebtedness among developing countries reflect overconsumption. Capital inflows did not partly or wholly displace domestic saving for the sample of countries examined; rather, the increase in external deficits can in most cases be accounted for by expansion in investment (relative to total output). However, the author qualifies his basically optimistic conclusions in pointing out that countries' ability to repay debt depends not only on whether initial borrowing sustained consumption or investment. but also, if the latter, on the quality of the investment spending.     

Trade policies,imperfect competition,and endogenous growth

Summary This paper analyses the effects of trade policies in a general equilibrium two-conutry model with imperfect competition. This model generalizes the models of monopolistic and Cournot competition. Trade is shown to be welfare-increasing in the monopolistic completition model. The same holds true in the case of endogenous growth. In the model of Coumot competition, the welfare effects of trade policies depend upon the type of entry and exit. Indeed, it is possible for two countries to increase their welfare by pursuing a coordinated policy of protection. In an endogenous growth setting, the validity of the latter finding depends upon the consumer rate of time preference.At the time of writing, the author was affiliated with the Ministry of Economic Affairs. An earlier version of this paper was presetned at the ECOZOEK-day, June 11, 1993, Tilburg and was awarded theKVS-prize 1993 of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. The author would like to thank an anonymous referre, P.A.G. van Bergeijk, R.A.de Mooij, A. Nieuwenhuis, F. van der Ploeg, J. van Sinderen, S. Smulders, and P.M. Waasdorp for useful comments. The views expressed in this paper are strictly presonal.     

The world economy,external debt and prospects for development financing

This paper provides an overview of the evolution of the industrial economies in the 1960s, with particular attention to the factors which gave rise to the economic crisis of recent years. The effects of this international economic instability on the developing economies is then considered, especially the weakening of their balance-of-payments position which has increased their dependence on external finance. The author indicates that the developing countries' growing reliance on credits from private international banks gives cause for concern and he proceeds to make some suggestions for other mechanisms of development financing.     

Major issues concerning pharmaceutical policies in the third world

Estimates indicate that total expenditures on drugs in developing countries would reach a magnitude of US $200 billion by the year 2000. In order to meet these requirements, developing countries would have to rationalize - individually and in cooperation among themselves - their pharmaceutical supply system, improving service technology and choices regarding the selection, procurement and distribution of drugs, as well as enhancing production possibilities and strengthening their capacity regarding transfer, application and development of technology in the pharmaceutical sector.     

Basic needs policies and population growth

Multiple regression analysis is applied to a newly-published body of cross-country data: (a) to re-examine the effects on fertility of infant mortality, education, and the degree of equality of the income distribution; (b) to test for the existence of a lag between the decline in fertility; (c) to investigate whether interaction effects occur. It is found that basic needs oriented policies may indeed bring about an eventual decline in fertility rates as well as mortality rates — but that the full long-run effect of such policies on population growth is likely to depend crucially on the length and time-shape of the lag between the fertility and mortality reductions.     

Economic integration, wage policies, and social policies

This paper sets up a two country monopolistic competition modelwith intra-industry trade to study the effects of an exogenousdifferential in wage and social policies on the location ofindustry. Two model scenarios are considered. In the traditionalone with physical capital, such a differential induces a relocationeffect which increases with the level of trade integration.The ‘new economic geography’ world assumes mobileentrepreneurs which can relocate thus bringing agglomerationforces into play. The most significant difference between thisworld and the traditional one is that, at high levels of tradeintegration, where one country has emerged as the core and theother as the periphery, the core may have more generous socialpolicies and higher wages than the periphery without inducinga relocation of firms. The scope to have higher wage is constrained,however, and related to the level of trade integration in abell-shaped way.     

Public budgetary rules and GDP growth: An empirical study on OECD and twelve european countries

We study the long-term effects of budgetary rules on GDP growth rate and analyse the determinants of the short-term GDP growth dynamics. For both a sample of 19 OECD and a subsample of 12 European countries, we show that, in the long run, improvements in the cyclically adjusted budget balance, as well as increases in the tax burden, have negative effects on GDP growth. The highest effect of fiscal policy on GDP growth would be obtained if the structural deficits were used to increase the market size by reducing the tax burden. In line with Barro (1990), a deficit-financed reduction of tax burden has a stronger effect for European than for OECD countries, because in Europe the government size with respect to market size is too large. Therefore, if GDP growth is a dominant policy objective, in Europe specific actions should redress the 2012 Treaty toward a reduction of the tax burden.     

Trade policies and growth in emerging economies: policy experiments

This paper analyzes a dynamic endogenous growth model to quantify the channels through which international trade affects longer-term growth of an emerging economy, with an emphasis on the role played by trade policies. In the model, trade can promote (i) labor migration from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors and (ii) the inflow of foreign knowledge to enhance productivity in non-agricultural sector. The model is estimated to match with the data from selected advanced and emerging economies. Policy experiments suggest that openness to trade and elimination of trade barriers would raise annual real GDP growth by up to three percentage points for decades.

     

Income redistribution,interdependent consumers’ preferences and aggregate consumption

Conclusion In the above discussion we have taken a particular view of the emulation process, its relation to the movement from one level of living to another level of living and the process of such a movement itself. One may disagree with some elements in this framework but this analysis suggests, nonetheless, that a number of factors are involved in determining the effect of income redistribution on aggregate consumption expenditure. The manner and the force of emulation, the number of consumers in various income groups, their nearness to another level, the extent to which they increase or decrease their savings or consumption as a result of income redistribution appear to be some of the important factors. Unless one has sufficient information on these factors it seems difficult to conclude one way or the other about the effect of income redistribution on aggregate consumption. It becomes still more difficult to come to a definite conclusion if we consider that the consumers desire not only a better standard of living but also larger financial reserves.     

WTO框架下的欧盟经贸政策研究

欧盟经济对国际贸易的依赖较强,它一直致力于建设一个开放型的国际贸易体系,是关贸总协定(GATT)和世贸组织各回合贸易谈判的积极倡导者和推动者.因此,研究欧盟在WTO框架下的经贸政策,对于我国与欧盟的关系以及我国经贸政策的制订都有很能重要的借鉴意义.     

Industry competition in China: an external governance mechanism or an external incentive

We focus on the impact of industry competition on earnings management in listed companies in China. Empirical analysis reveals the following: (1) When competition within an industry is relatively low, it lowers the extent of earnings management; (2) when competition is relatively high, earnings management is promoted.; (3) within an industry, the more intense the competition, the more companies manipulate earnings when in an inferior competitive position; and (4) state‐owned enterprises that are at a competitive disadvantage within an industry rely more on real earnings management strategies, whereas these effects are insignificant in private firms.     

Monetary and fiscal policy in interdependent two-sector economies

Summary This paper considers a two-country-two-sector world with tradables and non-tradables, floating exchange rates, perfect capital mobility and sluggish labour markets. The model assumes either nominal or real wage rigidity and either perfect or imperfect substitution between home and foreign-produced tradables. The effects and spillover effects of fiscal and monetary shocks are compared with the standard results from well-known macroeconomic two-country counterparts of the model. The purpose is to establish the degree of robustness of the latter with respect to disaggregation and to gain insight into the sectoral transmissions of the shocks.The authors wish to thank Lans Bovenberg, Theo van de Klundert, Christian Mulder, Frederick van der Ploeg, Martin van Tuijl, Leo van Veldhuizen and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

The European economy in an expanding world

Summary Postwar economic development in Europe can be subdivided in two periods. In the first subperiod 1950–1973 growth is determined by catching up vis-d-vis the US. The second subperiod 1973–1993 is characterised by a reorientation with respect to the international division of labour. This sets the stage for future developments, which are presented in the form of three different scenarios. In the European Decline scenario Europe cannot match developments in the US and Japan. As appears from a scenario called Fortress Europe import protection provides no sensible solution. To compete on a world scale Europe needs more technological dynamics as sketched in the European Recovery scenario. Calculations of future paths are based on the WorldScan model of the Central Planning Bureau.Theo van de Klundert is Professor of Economics at Tilburg University. Ben Geurts and Hans Timmer are staff members of the Central Planning Bureau, The Hague. We are indebted to Martin Fase and Simon Kuipers for useful comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

Adjustment policies and economic growth in developing countries — Is devaluation contractionary?

Zusammenfassung Anpassungspolitik und wirtschaftliches Wachstum in Entwicklungsl?ndern: Wirken Abwertungen kontraktiv? — Der Auffassung, da? abwertungsbedingte Substitutionseffekte ausreichend stark sind, um eine Ausweitung der Produktion zu gew?hrleisten, wird vielfach entgegengetreten. Eine verwirrende Vielzahl theoretischer Modelle verweist auf kontraktive Auswirkungen einer realen Abwertung. Empirische Analysen von Wechselkurseffekten auf das gesamtwirtschaftliche Wachstum fehlen jedoch weitgehend. Die vorliegende gepoolte L?nderquerschnittsuntersuchung für den Zeitraum 1982—1987 soll dazu beitragen, diese Lücke zu schlie?en. Die Ergebnisse der Regressionssch?tzungen widersprechen dem weitverbreiteten Pessimismus über die Wachstumseffekte realer Abwertungen. Die Sch?tzungen für verschiedene L?ndergruppen zeigen allerdings, da? die Richtung, das Ausma? und die zeitliche Abfolge der Wirkungen von den charakteristischen Strukturmerkmalen der untersuchten L?nder abh?ngen. Insbesondere die Exportstruktur erweist sich als wichtig.

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Résumé Les politiques d’ajustement et la croissance économique dans les pays en voie de développement: Est-ce que la dévaluation empêche la croissance? — La série déconcertante des théories qui posent qu’une dévaluation empêche la croissance doute de plus en plus de l’opinion que les effets de substitution causés par une dévaluation sont suffisamment forts pour augmenter la production macroéconomique. Avec cette étude on a l’intention de diminuer le trou frappant concernant la recherche empirique sur des effets d’une dévaluation. Les résultats de cette analyse de regression faite à travers des pays pour la période de 1982 à 1987 s’opposent au pessimisme général en ce qui concerne la répercussion d’une dévaluation réelle sur la croissance économique des pays en voie de développement. Les estimations pour des groupes de pays spécifiques indiquent que la direction, le degré et la structure temporelle des effets de croissance dépendent des caractéristiques structurelles des économies, principalement des exportations prépondérantes.

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Resumen Politicas de ajuste y crecimiento de países en desarrollo: ?puede una devaluación ser contractiva? — El impresionante número de marcos teóricos que tratan la devaluación contractiva está cuestionando seriamente la noción de que los efectos substitutivos inducidos por la devaluación son suficientemente fuertes como para garantizar un impacto netamente expansivo sobre el producto. La intención de este trabajo es llenar el vacío que existe en el studio empirico de los efectos de una devaluación. Los resultados del análisis de regresión de una muestra de varios países para el periodo 1982—1987 refutan el pesimismo generalizado sobre el impacto de una devaluación del tipo de cambio real sobre el crecimiento. Sin embargo, las estimaciones para ciertos grupos de países indican que el signo, el nivel y la estructura temporal de los impactos sobre el crecimiento dependen de las características estructurales, ante todo de las exportaciones más importantes de las economías estudiadas.