Factor inputs in U.S. trade

This paper focuses on some open questions in the empirical literature on the factor content of U.S. trade. In a regression analysis on 1963 and 1967 cross-section data, it is found that U.S. trade is exporting the services of human capital and importing the services of raw labor and (marginally) of physical capital. The results are not sensitive to scaling for industry size or to using probit analysis rather than OLS regression. An important implication of the results is that it is inappropriate to aggregate physical and human capital in trade models.     

Fundamental dimensions of U.S. trade policy

How many dimensions adequately characterize voting on U.S. trade policy? How are these dimensions to be interpreted? This paper seeks those answers in the context of voting on the landmark 1988 Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act. The paper takes steps beyond the existing literature. First, using a factor analytic approach, the dimension issue is examined to determine whether subsets of roll call votes on trade policy are correlated. A factor-analytic result allows the use of a limited number of votes for this purpose. Second, a structural model with latent variables is used to find what economic and political factors comprise these dimensions. The study yields two main findings. More than one dimension determines voting in the Senate, with the main dimension driven by economic interest, not ideology. Although two dimensions are required to fully account for House voting, one dimension dominates. That dimension is driven primarily by party. Based on reported evidence, and a growing consensus in the congressional studies literature, this finding is attributed to interest-based leadership that evolves in order to solve collective action problems faced by individual legislators.     

美国对华贸易逆差问题剖析

近年来中美贸易逆差问题成为世界经济的一大焦点，至2003年初又有不断升温的趋势，美国总统布什要求人民币升值。财长斯诺访华、温家宝总理访美、吴仪副总理访美、双方高层频繁互访，旨在解决双边贸易逆差问题。中美贸易逆差问题已经成为中美双边贸易发展的障碍，更有瓶颈发展趋势。中美贸易逆差已是不争事实，但中关贸易逆差真的像美国所说的那     

Coordinating climate and trade policies: Pareto efficiency and the role of border tax adjustments

This paper explores the role of trade instruments in globally efficient climate policies, focusing on whether or not some form of border tax adjustment (BTA) is warranted when carbon prices differ internationally. The analysis shows that, while there is no case for BTA when all instruments can be freely deployed, Pareto-efficiency does require a form of BTA when carbon taxes in some countries are constrained: its purpose then is to partly counteract the impact on emissions of inappropriate carbon pricing there, or, equivalently, to undo the trade distortions such pricing creates. The required form of BTA is generally complex, but a special case is identified in which it optimally has the simple structure envisaged in practical policy discussions. It is also shown that the efficiency case for BTA depends critically on whether climate policies are pursued by carbon taxation or by cap-and-trade.     

World trade and structural adjustments

The developing countries have to be involved more closely in the international division of labour if they are to be able to play their part in a New International Economic Order. Increased competition in semifinished and finished products and internal substitution processes will pose new problems for the industrialized countries and force them to consider structural readjustments in their own economies.     

美国不同时期的对外贸易及其特点

一、美国建国到南北战争时期的对外贸易及其特点 美国从建国到南北战争爆发之前,是一个主要依靠内需来推动经济发展的国家.国内市场在美国的整个经济发展中具有极其重要的作用和意义,尽管这期间的美国贸易额增长迅速,但从整体上说,贸易量在大部分年份里是比较小的,而且长期处于逆差状态.在占世界贸易的比重方面,美国远远落后于英国、法国、德国等国家.     

U.S.-China trade war and competitive advantage of Vietnam

China has been losing international competitiveness in labor-intensive industries due to various factors, including the trade war with the United States and globalization. Vietnam, however, has rapidly expanded its labor-intensive exports. The paper proposes to explore the future of labor-intensive industries in Vietnam due to the U.S.-China trade war. The paper examines export performance data from United Nation Comtrade for 10 specific labor-intensive industries that serve the U.S. market between 2000 and 2020 to assess the possibility of Vietnam overtaking China's position as the world's largest manufacturer. Using situation analysis, the paper compares the competitive advantage of Vietnam in labor-intensive industries due to the U.S.-China trade war. The paper found that China's competitiveness was negatively impacted for the final two periods, while Vietnam's competitive advantage increased.     

U.S.-Canadian trade liberalization and adjustment mechanisms: A survey

The prospect of bilateral trade liberalization requires an understanding of contemporary work on the adjustment process. This survey of recent models by principally Canadian economists examines the methodological foundations of this research. It is found that the new trade adjustment models are just beginning to incorporate key elements of industrial organization effects such as intra-firm trade and non-tariff barriers to trade. More progress in these areas is required.     

Multinational companies and the growth of the U.S. trade deficit

This article examines the role of multinational companies (MNCs) in the growth of the U.S. trade deficit. Estimates of MNC-related trade are developed for 1977, 1982, and 1987. The data show that MNCs are associated with a significant share of U.S. trade and that the trading activities of multinational companies can be linked to significant trends in the U.S. trade balance.     

The impact of trade restrictions on U.S. apparel consumers

The loss incurred by U.S. apparel consumers in 1980 due to higher prices from tariffs and quotas was estimated. The price impact of tariffs was based on the ad valorem tariff rate while the price impact of quotas was based on estimated price differences between domestic and imported apparel at the same U.S. distribution level.Consumer losses in 1980 ranged from $10 billion to $12 billion depending on the price elasticity of demand for apparel and whether consumers or distributors received the scarcity rent generated by quotas. The increase in consumer expenditures due to higher prices accounted for the greatest proportion of consumer losses and ranged from 23% to 25% of total consumer expenditures for apparel depending on the allocation of the scarcity rent.While a reduction in trade restrictions would benefit consumers, such a reduction would also impose losses on firms and workers in the domestic apparel industry. However, there are other strategies for meeting competition from imports that would benefit producers as well as consumers.

---

Einfuhrbeschränkungen aus Konsumentensicht — das Beispiel des US-amerikanischen Kleidungsmarktes

Zusammenfassung Die hohen amerikanischen Bekleidungseinfuhren der letzten 25 Jahre sind eine Folge der hohen Arbeitsintensität der Bekleidungsproduktion, die Ländern mit niedrigem Lohnniveau einen komparativen Vorteil bietet. Schon seit längerem sollen Zölle und Einfuhrmengen-Beschränkungen die amerikanische Bekleidungsindustrie schützen.Der vorliegende Beitrag versucht, die Verluste zu schätzen, die bei amerikanischen Käufern von Bekleidung im Jahre 1980 durch diejenigen Preiserhöhungen entstanden sind, die auf Zölle und Mengenbeschränkungen zurückzuführen sind. Die Schätzung der Preiswirkungen der Zölle knüpft unmittelbar an deren Beträge an, während die Schätzung der Preiswirkung der Mengenbeschränkungen an Preisunterschiede zwischen vergleichbaren heimischen Bekleidungsgütern und importierten Bekleidungsgütern anknüpft.Die auf diese Weise geschätzten Verbraucherverluste für das Jahr 1980 liegen zwischen 10 und 12 Milliarden Dollar (je nach der Höhe der Preiselastizität der Bekleidungsgüter-Nachfrage). Preisbedingte Ausgabenerhöhungen machen den größten Teil der Verbraucherverluste aus (ca. 23 bis 25% der gesamten Verbrauchsausgaben für Bekleidung).Die Analyse ist auf preisbedingte Verbraucherverluste beschränkt. Mögliche Einschränkungen der Wahlmöglichkeit durch Einfuhrbeschränkungen werden nicht erfaßt. Beispielsweise können Einfuhrmengen-Beschränkungen das Qualitätsspektrum der importierten Güter beeinflussen und zu einer Substitution besserer und teurerer Güter durch schlechtere Güter führen. Die Vernachlässigung solcher Wirkungen bedeutet, daß die im vorliegenden Beitrag quantifizierten Verbraucherverluste durch Einfuhrbeschränkungen unterschätzt sein dürften.Einerseits würde die Aufhebung von Einfuhrbeschränkungen den Verbrauchern nützen, andererseits würde sie jedoch der amerikanischen Bekleidungsindustrie Schaden bringen und zu Unternehmensschließungen und zu Arbeitslosigkeit führen. Strategien, um dem ausländischen Wettbewerb wirkungsvoll zu begegnen, liegen im Bereich neuer Produktionstechnologien, verbessertem Einsatz des Marketinginstrumentariums und vor allem im Bereich der Produktqualität. Solche Strategien würden sowohl der Industrie als auch den Konsumenten nützen, sie werden jedoch so lange unterdrückt, wie Handelsbeschränkungen auf anderem Wege einen Schutz gegen die Importkonkurrenz bieten.Das Beispiel zeigt die Divergenz von Produzenten- und Konsumenteninteressen bei Fragen des internationalen Handels. Diese Divergenz sollte für die Verbraucheraufklärung Anstoß sein, Konsumenten und ihre Organisationen auf die Vorteile des freien Handels aufmerksam zu machen, so daß sie ihren politischen Willen ebenso wirkungsvoll vorbringen wie Produzenten oder Arbeitnehmer.This paper is Scientific Article Number A-3731, Contribution Number 6707 of the Maryland Agricultural Experiment Station.

---

---

Rachel Dardis is a Professor, and Katherine Cooke a Graduate Student, at the Department of Textiles and Consumer Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, U.S.A.     

U.S.-Africa trade balance and the J-curve: An asymmetry analysis

ABSTRACT

For the first time in the body of literature, we consider bilateral trade balance models of the US with each of her 20 trading partners from Africa and try to assess the J-curve phenomenon. After applying the linear and nonlinear ARDL approaches, we find support for the J-curve effect in three partners from the linear models. However, support rises to eight partners when we shift to nonlinear models. Furthermore, we find short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in almost all models and significant long-run asymmetric effects in half of the partners.     

Free trade as ideology: fair trade as goal problems of an ideological approach in U.S. trade policy

Increased protectionist practices among the major industrialized countries present serious challenges to a free trade doctrine. Contradictions between theory and practice make the defense of a pure trade system increasingly untenable. Yet U.S. trade policy continues to be driven by an ideological commitment to such a system. Changing international economic and political conditions suggest that a new “fair trade” paradigm may be in the making. However, replacement of a “free” trade regime by a “fair” one will depend on how well the weaknesses of a free trade ideology can be overcome. These weaknesses are discussed and some suggestions are offered for clarifying policy thinking about free trade under contemporary conditions.     

Deregulation,tax policy,and certainty: foundations of the U.S. recovery

Business Economics - This paper focuses on the impact that the change in direction of economic policy ushered in by the Trump administration has had on the performance of the U.S. economy. Since...     

The determinants and consequences of across-the-board trade restrictions in the U.S. economy

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations in the determination of across-the-board trade restrictions in the U.S. economy.

The empirical results reported show that generalized trade intervention is most immediately affected by wealth transfer abroad through the trade balance and not by a slowing in employment growth. Furthermore, trade restrictions are associated with a decline in the stock market and aggregate employment.