浅谈中学生体育兴趣的培养

体育兴趣是学生学习体育的内在动力，也是学生个性能力发展的起点和依据，中学生活泼好动，兴趣爱好广泛，如果加以正确的引导，并利用各种新颖的教学方法，教学手段，以及教学内容因材施教地进行有目的性的教育培养，将终身体育这一体育运动锻炼的新理念更好的融入其自身的成长和发展当中，是培养中学生体育兴趣的主旨。     

国有企业委托代理问题的博弈分析

按照企业契约是否被终止,本文将国企企业契约分为短期契约(提前终止)和长期契约(未提前终止)两种。通过建立博弈模型,阐述不同契约形式下,股东和经理的策略变化,分析影响双方策略的因素并揭示出形成这一结果的原因,最后提出解决国有企业委托代理问题的对策建议。     

普通大学生参加体育课外活动调查分析

了解大学生体育活动兴趣与动机,对于培养学生的体育兴趣爱好,形成良好的体育锻炼习惯,增强体质有着十分重要的意义。该文通过对大学生体育活动兴趣与动机的调查分析,旨在探索提高高校学生课外体育活动的主动性和自觉性,增强课外活动的效果。     

C2C模式下名声系统模型的改进

文章分析了现有C2C电子商务网站名声系统模型的缺点：现有的信任模型或基于信任链．不能充分利用门户网站上丰富的推荐信息;或缺乏对推荐信息有效性的分析,不能很好地应对信任炒作和诽谤。文章指出将以往模型进行改进,对推荐信息采用长期分析和短期分析结合的方法,充分利用了推荐信息,并能有效应对信任炒作和诽谤,可以更好地辅助C2C电子交易系统的用户进行决策。     

中国天然气需求量与GDP之间关系的协整分析与误差修正模型研究

本文运用协整和误差修正模型建立中国天然气需求的预测模型,并将中国天然气消费的长期均衡引入到短期预测模型。通过模型结构分析,得出影响天然气需求量波动的长期均衡控制因素(国内生产总值)和短期波动((国内生产总值,以及上一期天然气消费量),并针对我国天然气未来供需严重不平衡的局面,提出一定的建议和对策。     

小学音乐兴趣教学设计

音乐课程标准的理念之首是“以审蔓为核心，以兴趣爱好为动力”。可见，对一名小学音乐教师来说，培养学生的音乐兴趣是至关重要的。教学活动中，学生只有产生了兴趣爱好，才会积极主动的参与课堂，自主学习。有了学习兴趣，教师教学效率才会事半功倍，才能更有效地提高学生审羌能力，丰富他们的精神生活。陶冶芙好高尚的情操，最终深化美育。提高学生的音乐素养。     

普通大学生参加体育课外活动调查分析

了解大学生体育活动兴趣与动机,对于培养学生的体育兴趣爱好,形成良好的体育锻炼习惯,增强体质有着十分重要的意义。该文通过对大学生体育活动兴趣与动机的调查分析,旨在探索提高高校学生课外体育活动的主动性和自觉性,增强课外活动的效果。     

我国外汇储备影响因素分析与汇率制度选择

本文通过误差修正模型分析了我国外汇储备长期和短期的影响因素,认为短期影响因素是进出口额与外商直接投资。根据模型结论,本文认为继续深化汇率体制改革,适度加快人民币升值和扩大波动区间,利用汇率自身与对进出口额的杠杆作用,直接和间接地将外汇储备控制在合理的范围内。     

我国经济增长与工业制成品进出口关系的实证研究

利用中国1990-2010年的宏观统计数据,对经济增长与工业制成品进出口的平稳性、因果关系和协整性进行实证检验,通过建立工业制成品进出口与经济增长之间的长期均衡模型和误差修正模型,认为经济增长和工业制成品的进出口会出现短期的不均衡,但通过长期误差修正项会把短期波动调整到长期均衡状态。据此提出提高经济增长质量和优化工业制成品进出口结构的建议,对我国今后工业外贸的发展有一定的指导意义。     

需求量与GDP之间关系的协整分析与误差修正模型研究

本文运用协整和误差修正模型建立中国天然气需求的预测模型，并将中国天然气消费的长期均衡引入到短期预测模型。通过模型结构分析，得出影响天然气需求量波动的长期均衡控制因素（国内生产总值）和短期波动（国内生产总值，以及上一期天然气消费量），并针对我国天然气未来供需严重不平衡的局面，提出一定的建议和对策。     

经济均衡视角的人民币利率与汇率联动关系

利率与汇率作为宏观经济调控的重要变量,理论上它们之间存在正反馈的联动关系。通过格兰杰因果关系检验与VEC模型发现,人民币利率与人民币汇率之间存在双向因果关系,但通过脉冲响应模型与方差分解分析发现,长期的联动效应要大于短期的联动效应,人民币利率对汇率的影响要大于人民币汇率对利率的影响。     

Dynamic portfolio models with long-term restrictions

Summary Dynamic portfolio models have obtained a prominent place in the economic literature. As a rule, the problem of implausible long-term coefficients is ignored. In particular the long-term interest rate parameters are not in accordance with the theory of gross substitution. This shortcoming is especially serious when such a portfolio model is used as part of a larger macroeconomic model. A standard estimation-under-restriction procedure cannot be applied as these long-term coefficients are nonlinear functions of short-term interest rate coefficients and of the coefficients of the adjustment process. This paper introduces a new estimation procedure, which is used to estimate portfolio models for households and banks in The Netherlands.     

Empirical evidence of a positive inflation premium being incorporated into stock prices

This study demonstrates that in contrast to prior research findings on short-term stock returns, long-term stock returns are positively correlated with inflation. In addition, within the context of a more complete explanatory model, long-term stock returns are found to be negatively related to changes in long-term interest rates and negatively related to beginning price to earnings ratios. The significance of these variables in explaining almost all the time series variation in long-term stock returns demonstrates that changes in stock values are well explained by theory.     

等额本息还款法和等额本金还款法比较分析

文章基于货币时间价值理论对住房贷款中两种最常用的还款方法———等额本息还款法和等额本金还款法进行了系统的比较和分析,并结合实际案例从节省利息、可得贷款总额、贷款利率上升时还款以及提前还贷四个角度论述了这两种还款方法的利弊。最后,给出了两种还款方法所适用的购房群体,对贷款购房者具有很强的指导意义。     

International Convergence of Capital Market Interest Rates

This article investigates the extent of capital market interest rate convergence among six EU countries on the one hand, and a group of four countries with floating exchange rates - US, Germany, Japan, and Switzerland - on the other. We conclude that interest rate changes within the EU have been and still are converging gradually since 1980. Within the group of free-float currencies, the increase in convergence occurred abruptly around 1980, after which the extent of convergence remained roughly constant. Moreover, the presumed higher influence of US long-term interest rates on the level of German interest rates could not be detected.     

解读冰岛金融危机:演进历程、结构特征与形成机理

冰岛金融危机历经三个阶段,沿外债膨胀、汇率暴跌、股指跳水、利率攀高、实体经济衰退这五步逐次演进。经济金融化、金融国际化和银行证券化是其宏观经济步入危机时的结构特征。从形成冰岛危机的外部环境看,国际金融危机从美国向世界范围扩展,形成环环相扣的"马尔可夫链",目前有明显的三波,冰岛的危机是第二波和第三波之间承前启后的重要环节。从制约冰岛经济演进的宏观机制看,二战后冰岛成为美国主导的全球秩序中的"搭便车"(freerider)者,在获取并消费美国提供的国际公共产品的过程中,产生"追随强者"(bandwagoneffect)的行为模式,形成对美国代表的"盎格鲁-撒克逊"模式的"路径依赖",从而最终步入金融危机。     

The effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan

What are the effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan? We present a dynamic general equilibrium model in which demographic changes are captured by exogenous changes in the ratio of workers to the total population. Our model predicts that a decline in this ratio in the process of population aging lowers the real interest rate; and the demographic impact on the real interest rate is amplified by a fall in land prices in the presence of collateral constraints. The model is simulated with the realized and forecasted changes in the working-age population ratio, the TFP growth, and government spending in Japan. Our results indicate that the TFP growth is the main source of variations in the real interest rate, but the demographic factor is also quantitatively important especially for its long-term movements.     

European Business Fluctuations in the Austrian Framework

The Austrian theory mainly deals with analyzing the effects of an increased credit offer on productive structures. In this respect, we propose to link long-term growth cycles to various short-term interest rate gaps. Are European Business Cycles affected when a fall in the money market rate disrupts agents’ expectations of inflation? Using the hypothesis that individual speculation is motivated by the difference between short-term real interest rates and their natural levels, we argue that Wicksellian interest rate gaps can account for a high proportion of long-term fluctuations in four European countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). We present specific dating methods and filters used in order to distinguish between short-term and long-term growth cycles. The Wicksellian incentives we constructed are then significantly linked to long-term business fluctuations. Under the hypothesis of adaptive expectations of inflation, our results are enhanced.     

Reputational recovery under political instability: Public debt in Portugal, 1641–83

This article examines the reputation recovery of Portugal's public debt during the war of liberation against the former Habsburg ruler. Using novel datasets on long- and short-term debt and nominal interest rates, this study provides evidence that the sovereign borrower used debt credibility to build a pact of regime in a revolutionary context with implications for financing the war. The Portuguese kings followed an implicit budget balance rule as a reputational scheme, which made Portugal an exceptional case of military success with a low debt-to-GDP ratio and low interest rates. These conclusions contribute to the literature in various attributes of war finance, debt management, and state-making by showing that default avoidance could be as important to military success as fiscal capacity.     

Prepayment behaviors of Japanese residential mortgages

We investigate full prepayments of Japanese residential mortgages during a ten-year period from 1996 to 2005. This investigation is important because the amount of mortgages outstanding in Japan is huge, yet the study on their prepayments is very limited. This period from 1996 to 2005 was characterized by two distinct features of the evolution of interest rates that might have significant effects on mortgage refinancing. First, interest rate fluctuations were limited to a narrow range of a little over 1%. Surprisingly, full prepayments of Japanese mortgages were sensitive to small changes in interest rates. Second, long-term refinance rates did not fall well below the contract rates of most mortgages in our sample during the ten-year period, while short-term refinance rates did. With this interest rate relationship, if mortgagors ever refinanced, it was likely that they rolled over short-term mortgage rates several times until they repaid mortgages completely. Hence, we examine the sensitivity of full prepayments to short-term vs. long-term interest rates, mortgagors’ expectation of future course of interest rates (by the slope of yield curve), and that of interest rate volatility. Our analysis shows that short-term interest rates have a slightly greater explanatory power for full prepayments than long-term interest rates. In addition, our analysis confirms that full prepayments are sensitive to both the slope of yield curve and interest rate volatility. Other issues we look into are the patterns of full prepayments in relation to loan age and seasonality. We find that the pattern of full prepayments relative to loan age is comparable to that of mortgages in the U.S., and that the seasonal pattern of full prepayments is attributable to relevant institutional arrangements in Japan.