我国对国民经济核算的贡献

国民经济核算是国民经济分析和政策的重要工具。改革开放以来,我国统计理论界的专家学者和实际工作部门的工作者从实际出发,理论联系实际,不断开拓创新,不仅推动了我国统计事业的不断发展,而且对国民经济核算理论与方法的发展做出了较大的贡献,主要包括四个方面:提出国民经济核算的平衡原则,消除了理论与方法上的误解;创立社会劳动价值论,奠定了我国国民经济核算体系的理论基础;提出国民大核算理论,明确了国民经济核算理论与方法的发展方向;整合MPS与SNA,丰富了国民经济核算的理论与方法     

Statistical institutes and economic prosperity

The quality of economic institutions can impact economic growth and it can mediate the relation between economic growth and its drivers. We examine the relevance of one such institution, which is the establishment of a national statistical institute for, amongst others, national accounts. We collect data for 106 countries, and we estimate that there are four separate clusters of countries with similar establishment dates. For these clusters we fit regression models to explain economic growth, and we obtain significant differences across these clusters with respect to relevant explanatory variables and effect sizes, suggesting that a national statistics institute indeed is an important institution for the macro-economy.     

The SAM and Beyond: Open,SESAME!

The revised 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA) contains a chapter on social accounting matrices (SAMs), demonstrating that the input-output approach should be extended to a matrix presentation of a wider set of national accounts. This article describes the application of that chapter to the case of Indonesia, and elaborates on the linkage of a SAM to all kinds of supplementary (non-monetary) data sets. This should yield a system of economic and social account-ing matrices and extensions (SESAME), i.e. a consistent meso-level information system from which major economic and social macro-indicators can be derived. By way of example, detailed employment figures that belong to a SESAME for Indonesia are presented.     

Proposal for a Social Accounting Matrix which Fits into the Next System of National Accounts

This paper shows that all flow accounts which may become part of the next system of national accounts (SNA) can be embedded easily in a social accounting matrix (SAM) framework. In fact, a SAM format has several advantages when compared to the traditional T-accounts for the institutional sectors. The SAM allows for more flexibility in selecting (a) the most relevant (different) classification in each account, and (b) the most relevant (different)valuation principle in each account. Compared with most currently available SAMs, the national accounting flaws matrix in this paper adds a complete supply and use system, more detail in the current institutional sector accounts, a produced capacity account recording the destination of investments by production activity, flow-of-funds matrices, an ‘other’ changes in assets account and a changes in balance sheet account. This framework is illustrated with an example for The Netherlands.     

Regionalizing National Commodity-by-Industry Accounts

Exended input–output (IO) models are increasingly prominent in regional economic analysis. Social accounting matrices and associated multiplier decompositions, IO econometric model hybrids and computable general equilibrium models are finding greater acceptance in contexts in which simple IO models once dominated. Although the extended regional models build primarily on the foundation of regional, interindustry accounting frameworks, the data from which these regional accounts are drawn are most commonly in the form of a national commodity-by-industry account. Despite this longstanding fact, the IO table adaptation literature has focused almost solely on methods of adapting national interindustry accounts to regional economies. This paper presents a method designed specifically to regionalize commodity-by-industry accounts, in the context of the US reporting system. The focus on commodity-by-industry data demands a confrontation with several important issues that otherwise might go unattended. Using a particular system and its accompanying classification scheme ensures a comprehensive and consistent regionalization method.     

Extending the SAM with Social and Environmental Indicators: An Application to Bolivia

Extending economic accounts with sets of social and environmental indicators is a first step towards a more integrated analysis of aspects of sustainability problems. In this article, therefore, a proposal is made to nest social and environmental indicators into an existing economic accounting framework. The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is taken as a basis, because of its flexibility regarding extensions with non-monetary data addressing social and environmental concerns. The main thrust of the paper is methodological. From the discussion of methodological issues and the application to the SAM for Bolivia for the year 1989, it is concluded that it is, in principle, feasible and relatively simple to extend the SAM with the two sets of indicators. However, additional data will have to be collected to be able to address, more adequately, the problems of sustainability.     

DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES WITH DETAILED AGRICULTURAL LAND RENT DATA AND IMPROVED VALUE-ADDED COMPONENTS FOR THE USA

We describe a method for creating social accounting matrices (SAMs) with detailed agricultural land rent data for any arbitrary subset of the 48 contiguous states in the USA. Data on land use and land rents from various public sources is merged with national accounts data. The method reorganizes the rental income of persons concept present in national accounts to payments to conventional primary factors of production. This method also reallocates portions of the indirect business tax account to the appropriate sales and import tax accounts. SAMs created using this method should be useful inputs into input–output or computable general equilibrium models explicitly representing a heterogeneous land market and analyzing the economic effects of agricultural, bioenergy, water and climate policies on land-use change, land rents, agricultural commodity markets, trade and households’ welfare. The method's implementation is freely available, enabling others to rapidly create SAMs with their own desired region and sector aggregations.     

European Structural Indicators,A Way Forward

At the 2000 Lisbon summit, the European Union formulated the ambition to transform itself into "the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion'. It is remarkable that, until recently, European statisticians were hardly involved in the design of a statistical information system and related "structural' indicators for this important policy purpose. Instead, indicators have been designed that do not measure what they intend to measure, are based on incomparable data and give the impression of a fairly incoherent shopping list of numbers without an underlying vision on the use of these numbers in policy making. This paper argues that indicators can best be based on a coherent accounting system, such as the national accounts, and that the SESAME- system, which is an extension of national accounts and so-called Social Accounting Matrices, offers promising perspectives in this regard.     

The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China’s transportation sector: A CGE analysis

Energy use is becoming more efficient due to technological innovations. We focused on the transportation sector in China to develop a national multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for analyzing the rebound effect from an improvement of 10% in the energy efficiency. We compared the size of the energy rebound effect at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels in different transportation modal subsectors, namely rail, road, water, and air travel. The findings showed that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies across the transportation modes. This is particularly true for the air transportation sector, which has an economy-wide rebound effect of 30.1% and an own-sector rebound effect of 74.6% because of a sharp increase in the export demand for air transport services. We also quantitatively evaluated the contribution of energy efficiency improvement in the transportation sector to China’s economic growth and carbon reductions and found a positive dividend effect on the economy as well as the environment. The modeling results suggest that improving overall transportation energy efficiency by 10% generates an economy-wide welfare gain of approximately 29 billion yuan, while 19 billion yuan are attributable to a more efficient road transportation subsector. Furthermore, to offset the effects of these mode-specific rebound effects, we simulated the effectiveness of different policies and solutions. These included economic instruments in the form of energy, environmental, and carbon taxes, household transport consumption structure adjustments, and energy structure adjustments. This study revealed that combining these sustainable development policies offers opportunities for economy-wide multisectoral improvements in energy savings, emissions reduction, and economic benefits.     

Policy intervention and forecasting: An application to minimum wages

This paper examines the forecasting implications of incorporating policy effects into the structure of unconditional time series models. The forecasting model is applied to the Puerto Rican experience with minimum wages from 1953 to 1982. The empirical results suggest that significant disemployment and unemployment followed the imposition of economy-wide minimum wages in 1974. The growth of employment suffered and the aggregate unemployment rate reached an unprecedented level. Multivariate time-series models for the employment-population ratio and the unemployment rate capture these effects well. They also forecast more accurately than unvariate and intervention models over the ex post period, 1983–1984. It is argued that models that combine subject matter-specific structure within a dynamic time-series framework greatly help to satisfy demands for theoretical consistency and forecast accuracy. Multivariate time-series models play an important complementary role in the structural modelling of economic policy analysis. This is particularly so when limitations of either data or theory preclude complete specification of structural equations.     

Measuring Commodities' Commodity Content

Within the standard linear framework, a methodology, formally similar to the labour theory of value, is proposed to compute the direct and indirect commodity contents of any produced good. The proposal is then compared with the more familiar social accounting matrix (SAM) accounting procedure, using an appropriate partitioning of the SAM accounts. Some numerical results are then obtained and compared using a recently compiled SAM for Catalonia. The empirical results show the practical feasibility of the proposed methodology.     

Servitization across countries and sectors: Evidence from world input-output data

This paper uses the supply tables underlying WIOT data to explore the provision of services by manufacturing. The service shares differ substantially across countries and sectors, while they remain largely stable over time. A latent class analysis assigns broadly defined manufacturing sectors to economy-wide growth models, differentiating between service- and manufacturing-driven models in catching-up and developed economies. Servitization increases with labor productivity. The service intensities in the sectoral production mix are lower in countries with higher manufacturing shares. This holds for both catching-up and developed economies. However, servitization is largely unrelated to productivity and employment growth. We therefore argue that the degree of servitization is contingent on and an attribute of the respective economic model in which a sector operates.     

中国省、市、自治区GDP份额演变及其影响因素分析

基于新经济地理理论,本文应用1978～2005年中国各省市区面板数据,对省级区域GDP份额进行了分析,构建了动态时空模型,建立了多区域经济体的结构分析框架,并将其应用于区域经济增长的动态效应分析,从而将区域经济增长的动态效应分解为相邻效应和整体效应。实证研究发现,无论是宏观经济增长效应还是区域相邻效应,都对中国省、市、自治区经济集聚具有很好的解释力。这对思考中国地区间差距问题提供了一些启示。     

Energy intensity and directed fiscal policy

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal policy on economy-wide energy intensity within an endogenous growth framework. To this end, we first develop a two-sector (investment good and consumption good) augmented AK model by integrating the Uzawa model with Rebelo’s AK model, and assume that a non-renewable resource is one of the factors of production. Using this framework, we solve the model for the short and long run, identifying the sufficient parameter conditions that ensure higher energy intensity in the investment goods sector. We then introduce a balanced budget government, whose objective is to decrease the economy-wide energy intensity by levying tax on the energy-intensive investment goods sector and subsidizing the consumption goods sector. Contrary to our expectations, we find that this fiscal policy design increases economy-wide energy intensity as it leads to a decline in real GDP without changing total energy consumption. On the basis of this model, we propose the concept of a ‘directed fiscal policy’, which connotes a reduction of the economy-wide energy intensity by following a heterogeneous taxation policy across sectors.     

From network ties to network structures: Exponential Random Graph Models of interorganizational relations

Theoretical accounts of network ties between organizations emphasize the interdependence of individual intentions, opportunities, and actions embedded in local configurations of network ties. These accounts are at odds with empirical models based on assumptions of independence between network ties. As a result, the relation between models for network ties and the observed network structure of interorganizational fields is problematic. Using original fieldwork and data that we have collected on collaborative network ties within a regional community of hospital organizations we estimate newly developed specifications of Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) that help to narrow the gap between theories and empirical models of interorganizational networks. After controlling for the main factors known to affect partner selection decisions, full models in which local dependencies between network ties are appropriately specified outperform restricted models in which such dependencies are left unspecified and only controlled for statistically. We use computational methods to show that networks based on empirical estimates produced by models accounting for local network dependencies reproduce with accuracy salient features of the global network structure that was actually observed. We show that models based on assumptions of independence between network ties do not. The results of the study suggest that mechanisms behind the formation of network ties between organizations are local, but their specification and identification depends on an accurate characterization of network structure. We discuss the implications of this view for current research on interorganizational networks, communities, and fields.     

Constructing SAMs for Development Policy Analysis: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead

The aim of this paper is to appraise a few of the key innovative features of the early work in compiling SAMs for development policy analysis; to set out and review some recent methodological advances; and to identify those areas where compilation continues to be problematic. It briefly re-visits the features of the SAM as an integrating framework and sets out its relationship to the SNA 1993. The main compilation problems faced in practice arise from assembling the household accounts from household survey data where income data are especially unreliable and are difficult to link to the factor accounts and to income transfers. Experience is drawn from the construction of a Ghana SAM. In the literature relatively more attention has been devoted to balancing and data reconciliation methods, which are briefly reviewed, although these are second order adjustments and much still depends on the quality of the initial estimates     

A portfolio approach to endogenous growth: equilibrium and optimal policy

This paper develops a portfolio approach to modeling endogenous growth in continuous time that is especially suitable for addressing fiscal and financial issues in policy design. The analysis focuses on the equilibrium relationship between fiscal and financial policy, rates of return and wealth allocation. We analyze two models. The first is based on the Arrow-Romer model with increasing returns and an external effect of capital on labor productivity. The second draws on Barro's analysis of government spending and endogenous growth. In both models, we study the equilibrium allocation and discuss the optimal fiscal and financial policy.     

GENUINE SAVINGS AND SUSTAINABILITY

Genuine Savings (GS) has emerged as the leading economic indicator of sustainable economic development at the country level. It derives from the literatures on weak sustainability, wealth accounting and national income accounting. We discuss the theoretical underpinnings of GS, focusing on the relationship between changes in a nation's extended capital stock and the future path of consumption. The indicator has entered widespread use propelled by the World Bank's publications, despite its varying performance as a predictor for future consumption. Notwithstanding the extensive body of literature reviewed, promising future research avenues are identified.     

Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information

Given aggregated data, a framework for estimating the entries of a social accounting matrix (SAM), or any large matrix of expenditures, trade or income flows, is developed. Under this framework it is possible to evaluate the contribution of structural and supply-side information, as well as policy variables, within the generalized context of a non-stationary SAM. Inference and diagnostic properties are developed as well. This new estimator can be viewed as a generalized maximum likelihood estimator. Stationary and non-stationary estimates of the US SAM for the years 1987-1994 together with the effects of supply-side variables are analyzed.