Global Warming Policy and the Pennsylvania Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Most studies of the impacts of global warming policy have been performed at the national level. However, national averages obscure the fact that some regions may be affected much more than others. We formulated a regional computable general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of a carbon tax on the Pennsylvania economy. The model incorporates special features relating to labor mobility, trade and energy substitution for this purpose. Our results indicate significant negative overall impacts on the Pennsylvania economy, primarily because it is a major producer and user of fossil fuels, especially coal, and because it is highly industrialized. Sensitivity analyses on key parameters and model assumptions indicate that our results are robust.     

Price-endogenized Input–Output Model: A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Production Sector of the Japanese Economy

This paper considers a generalization of the open Leontief model, by endogenizing the input coefficients on the basis of the neoclassical multi-sectoral produc-tion function. The adopted production function is of the two-level CES type, which is quite effective for avoiding the multi-collinearity problem. As a result, the estimates obtained are quite stable, satisfying the quasi-concavity conditions of the production function for all the sectors. Comparative statics based on the Jacobian of the excess supply function for each commodity market reveal that, owing to the factor substitution the effect of an increase in the final demand on the level of the production is significantly smaller than that which occurs in the open Leontief model with fixed input coefficients.     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of VAT in India

Indian industry is under pricing pressure after the government cut tariffs in a phased manner as per the WTO agreements. In order to be competitive, the consensus opinion in government, academics and industry is the implementation of a VAT in India. The paper evaluates the welfare implications of a VAT in the static and a sequentially dynamic context after accounting for the political and administrative constraints facing the Indian government in implementing a VAT. Replacing the old indirect tax structure with a VAT is welfare worsening. The increase in final consumer prices on account of reduced tax base leads to higher price of essentials, causing welfare loss. Zero rating v/s exemption plays an important role on welfare, with lower welfare loss if essential commodities are exempt from VAT. Agriculture sector unambiguously plays a crucial role in welfare.     

中国排污收费征收标准改革的一般均衡分析

2003年7月1日起中国开始施行新的排污收费标准,由过去的浓度超标收费转向总量收费和浓度超标收费相结合的排污收费方式。这是中国环境政策改革的一个重要举措。为此,本文建立了一个中国排污收费标准改革的CGE模型,并设计了三种政策情景来模拟这次改革。对西方关于环境税的一些理论观点在中国的适用性进行了验证。     

Hungary on the Road to a Mixed Economy: A Kaleckian Computable General Equilibrium Approach

The change from a centrally planned economy into a market economy is likely to have created a unique situation in economic history. Consequently, no existing economy theory is able to depict the process of transformation. It is argued in this paper that a Kaleckian theoretical approach may provide a starting point for the analysis of the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe. This approach is applied to Hungary, within the framework of a computable general equilibrium model. A number of policy measures, such as wage constraint, devaluation and mark-up reduction, are considered and their effects on production, inflation and income distribution assessed.     

经济学中一般均衡存在性问题理论述评

本文对经济学中一般均衡理论进行了概述。文中主要介绍了Arrow—Debreu经济模型、均衡存在性定理、存在性涸题在无穷维商品空间上的扩展以及相关工作。     

中国税制改革效应的一般均衡分析

我国正酝酿着新的税制改革。本研究利用可计算一般均衡模型PRCGEM（第三版）对我国税制改革的效应进行了模拟。在第二版的基础上，PRCGEM第三版通过更详细刻画中国的税收结构在模型中建立起几个主要税种的决定机制及其对经济主体之间的财政收入分配的反馈机制，从而为量化改革方案对经济的影响提供了基础。本研究对四种由经济学界和政府决策层提出的税制改革设想的短斯和长期效果进行了模拟和分析。     

General Equilibrium Analysis of India's Trade Reforms

WTO membership for India implies cutting tariffs in a phased manner. A general equilibrium approach is used to evaluate its impacts. The study analyses both the reduction and elimination of tariffs. With a small country assumption, there are welfare gains by liberalizing trade. With a large country assumption, welfare gains are observed when a CET transformation function is used and welfare loss in its absence.     

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Efficiency Improvements at Japanese Ports

In this paper we investigate the system-wide impact of increased efficiency of ports in Japan using a computable general equilibrium model developed for 1995. The Japanese Ministry of Transport has been implementing programs of the Ninth Seven-year Port Development Plan to improve port efficiency. The technological efficiency in the ports reduces the cost of shipping transportation, and the forward and backward linkages of imports and exports introduce some positive gains in the national GDP. Our analysis proves that the spillover effects are substantial on shipping transportation and to a lesser extent on the Japanese economy.     

General Equilibrium Analysis of International TFP Growth Rates

The paper presents a study of the total factor productivity (TFP) performance among developed countries between 1985 and 1990. The analysis includes the three large economies: the US, Japan and Europe. A general equilibrium model of these economies is used to estimate TFP growth at the sectoral and at the aggregate levels. The model is based on the fundamentals of the economies and employs only data on input-output flows, factor inputs across sectors, consumption and trade patterns and endowments. Prices are endogenous in the model. They are obtained as shadow prices from the model's linear program and then used to measure TFP growth and decompose it in a technical change effect, a demand effect and a terms-of-trade effect. The technical change effect is highly correlated with the conventional Solow residual measure. This result lends support to the standard measure of technological change.     

中国企业所得税税负归宿的一般均衡分析

本文运用一般均衡方法,分析中国企业所得税的税负归宿。文中将整个经济划分为企业所得税主要征收部门和非企业所得税主要征收部门,通过需求、供给、要素市场出清和投入产出相等四个方面,研究征收企业所得税对所有产品和要素在各个市场产生的连锁反应和影响,从而确定税负的分布。根据我国数据测定要素替代弹性、产品需求替代弹性等参数,代入模型进行模拟分析。研究结果表明,我国企业所得税并不完全由资本承担,资本只承担了税负83%左右,还有17%左右转嫁给劳动要素。由于要素的流动性,资本承担的83%税负部分不只是由企业所得税主要征收部门的资本承担的,而是由全社会资本共同承担的。     

统一内外资企业所得税率的动态CGE研究

新《劳动合同法》、统一内外资企业所得税等政策的相继实施,再加上目前人民币升值、国际形势恶化和宏观政策紧缩,形势与政策之间已经出现共振现象,那么由两税合并带来的对我国宏观经济的冲击到底有多大?本文利用CGE模型进行仿真,研究结果表明,在短期内,两税合并的确会对部分产业产生一定的负面冲击,同时也会降低政府税收,但对各地区的产出却呈正向冲击,长期来看,两税合并最终有利于我国产业的优化发展,有利于促进经济社会的全面发展。     

An Applied General Equilibrium Model to Assess the Impact of National Tax Changes on a Regional Economy

This paper presents two versions of an applied general equilibrium model for the regional economy of Andalusia, Spain, that differ in the closure rule adopted to describe the behavior of the public sector. We use the model with to analyze the impact that the reform of the personal income tax (Act 40/98) implemented in Spain as a whole would have had on the Andalusian region in particular. The model is of the neoclassical variety and includes not only the productive sectors of the economy but also the foreign sector and the government, which are usually absent from theoretical general equilibrium models. Both versions of the model are calibrated by using a Social Accounting Matrix of Andalusia for 1995. The analysis shows that the reform is not self-financing, not even partially, despite governmental claims. It also indicates that there is a positive but smaller than anticipated economic stimulus. In welfare terms, we find that the category of Urban Salaried consumers is the one that benefits the most in real income terms.     

略论2005年经济运行的总体特征

分析2005年经济运行的总体特征,对于全面认识当前的经济形势,揭示转轨时期的经济运行规律,把握今后的经济发展态势,调整和完善经济政策措施都是有益的。一、继续保持经济发展的良好态势如果以作为低谷年的1999年为起点考察新一轮经济周期,那么其主要特征就是经济增速快、增幅波动小。或是说,当前宏观经济形势的总体特点是经济持续、快速、平稳发展。2005年经济发展进一步显示了这些特征。     

Competitive Pressure on the Indian Households: A General Equilibrium Approach

How would competitive pressure impact upon the income distribution and the poverty of household groups? We analyse the gains in efficiency and productivity due to competitive pressure, and its distributional effects using a general equilibrium input–output framework. Efficient utilization of the available resources, technical progress and free trade constitute our sources of growth. Welfare would increase under competition, but the income distribution would become more skewed. Rural household groups would stand to lose relative to the urban ones. Urban poverty would be reduced significantly more than rural. In fact, the agricultural worker would even suffer from an increase in poverty. The study shows that competitive pressure has a positive effect on efficiency, productivity and poverty, but an adverse effect on the income distribution in the Indian economy.     

人民币现实均衡汇率的历史轨迹与未来走势——基于一般均衡框架下多方程结构模型的分析

在各种均衡汇率模型中,一般均衡框架下的多方程结构模型具有比较优势。将该模型运用于人民币兑美元名义汇率分析显示,1994年以来,人民币保持基本均衡状态下的升值趋势,这种趋势仍将随着中国经济的持续快速增长而延续。但短期来看升值速度与货币当局干预强度反向相关。基于我国目前产出的汇率预期弹性大于利率预期弹性的现实,为避免升值对我国经济造成负面冲击,适度干预是必要的,同时也要通过恰当的外贸及资本管制政策来缓解升值压力,并为减少干预创造条件。     

From General Equilibrium to Schumpeter

A simple model of cost innovation in a monetary economy is presented that illustrates the essentially dynamic model of Schumpeter involving breaking the circular flow of capital is logically consistent with the General Equilibrium (GE) model of an exchange and production economy. The GE model as presented by Arrow, Debreu and McKenzie is a non-process model; and the original theory deals with the non-constructive proofs of existence of competitive equilibria (CEs). To associate this theory with GE it is necessary to recast the basic model as a process model. The GE model is enlarged and specified as a playable game by adding rules to describe the mechanisms that carry process.Although we believe that GE was a great intellectual achievement, it strangled dynamics and the type of low dimensional equilibrium dynamics of the rational expectations school is profoundly misleading. It turns out that, by remodeling GE as a process model even with only one or two strategic moves, Pandora׳s Box of mechanisms appears and the functions of markets, money and default conditions all emerge as logical necessities.It is shown that the opportunity for process innovation can be described minimally and formally modeled by considering the availability of a new process as a function of a controlled stochastic variable where success depends on chance modified by the level of investment. The Schumpeterian concept of “breaking the circular flow of capital” appears naturally as a disequilibrium phenomenon where the extra resources are captured by a strategic disequilibrating allocation of money.     

Climate Change Policies and Tax Recycling Schemes: Simulations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Italian Economy

A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Italian economy is used to assess the impact of carbon taxation (or auctioned carbon permits), where additional revenue is used to cut either existing taxes on labor or on capital income. Simulation results do not support the existence of the so-called "double dividend" when labor taxes are reduced, whereas lower tax rates on capital have mild positive effects on growth and welfare, with progressivity properties on income distribution. These findings hinge on the assumptions of open economy, given world interest rate, and capital mobility.     

Chamberlinian Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Modelling: A Theoretical Framework

In this paper, a multi-regional multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model is developed by bringing together different strands of theoretical reasoning. These are as follows: input–output analysis, gravity modelling, the theory of intra-industry trade and the theory of general equilibrium under conditions of monopolistic competition. The innovation in this approach is the assumption that, within each sector, a large number of different brands of output are produced. Households like diversity of consumption and diversity of inputs is a productive factor for firms. The number of brands produced in each sector and region is endogenous. A certain amount of fixed costs per brand imposes an upper bound on the number of available brands. Factor markets are perfectly competitive, while monopolistic competition prevails on goods markets. The equilibrium solution of the model closely resembles models which have been applied on an ad hoc basis in regional science before, but it is well founded in modern economic theory now. In particular, trade flows obey a gravity law in equilibrium.     

关于分工、专业化和借贷利率的一般均衡分析

斯密和庞巴雏克从分工与专业化的角度解释了储蓄与借贷行为产生的原因以及利息的本质。穆勒也强调借贷行为在社会关系和改进劳动生产率方面的重要作用。本文利用内生借贷行为和内生的网络分工模型分析了利率与投资及经济发展之间的一些主要关系，并利用经济发展事实对部分结论作了论证。