THE DEMAND FOR M1: A FORWARD LOOKING BUFFER STOCK MODEL

A forward looking model of the demand for M1 based on minimisingmulti-period quadratic costs is derived. The dynamic responseof the demand for money differs depending on whether shocksare anticipated or unanticipated. The restrictions implicitin the forward model are tested and the model is compared witha conventional ADL backward looking model.     

THE NEW ZEALAND PRESS ASSOCIATION 1880–2006: THE RISE AND FALL OF A CO-OPERATIVE MODEL FOR NEWS GATHERING

The establishment of New Zealand's press agency, the New Zealand Press Association (NZPA), as a co-operative news gathering agency in 1880 has traditionally been regarded as reflecting a pioneering spirit of newspaper unity or as being largely determined by the political situation of the time. But these explanations are insufficient. Applying economic and organisational theories of co-operatives to the history of NZPA, this paper reveals it was market conditions that led to the creation of NZPA as a co-operative news gathering service. Following profound changes in those market conditions, NZPA recently abandoned this co-operative news gathering model.     

EXOGENEITY IN A RECENT EXCHANGE RATE MODEL: A RESPONSE TO MACDONALD AND RICCI

MacDonald and Ricci (2004) recently proposed an econometric model for the real effective exchange rate of the Rand. However, the real exchange rate is weakly exogenous in their model, implying that feedback to disequilibria in their model does not occur significantly via the exchange rate. Though MacDonald and Ricci (2004) have estimated an equilibrium relationship to which the real exchange rate contributes, their model does not qualify as a model for the real effective exchange rate of the Rand.     

SYNCHRONISATION BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE U.S.: A STRUCTURAL DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS

This paper studies the synchronisation of the South African and the US cycles and transmission channels through which supply and demand shocks from the US affect economic activity in South Africa in a structural dynamic factor model framework. We find, using the full-sample period, US supply shocks are transmitted to South Africa through business confidence and imports of goods and services; while US demand shocks are transmitted via interest rates, stock prices, exports of goods and services, and real effective exchange rates. Second, there is a decrease in integration over time translated by a drop in synchronisation of cycles. The impact of an increase in comovement of GDP is outweighed by the structural reforms initiated by the government after the end of apartheid. Finally, the idiosyncratic component still plays an important role in the South African economy.     

住宅新卖点:文化与生态

“诗意地栖居”是人类对自居住行为的最高期待。人类的祖先从树上下来,走出森林,挥动双手在山洞中搭起了人类的第一张绳床。从河姆渡的茅屋,到十二桥的干栏式建筑,从古朴的民居到如今的高楼大厦,我们越来越远离了森林、大地、白云——人类的“伊甸园”。苏芮那首动人的歌:“密密麻麻的高楼大厦找不到我的家……”道出了现代人面对林立