The effect of financial deepening on inequality: Some international evidence

This paper uses an unbalanced panel data analysis of 126 countries for the period 1963–2002 to analyze the effects of financial deepening on inequality. The principal findings can be summarized as follows: (1) financial deepening reduces inequality; (2) economic growth reduces the equalizing effects of financial deepening; (3) inequality increases with an increase in trade openness; (4) the disequalizing effects of trade openness decrease as a country grows; (5) financial deepening and trade openness therefore have asymmetric effects on inequality; and (6) these effects are robust to the choice of financial variables, inequality measures, and model specifications.     

The Financial Deepening-Productivity Nexus in China: 1987–2001

The financial intermediation-growth nexus is a widely studied topic in the literature of development economics. Deepening financial intermediation may promote economic growth by mobilizing more investments, and lifting returns to financial resources, which raises productivity. Relying on provincial panel data from China, this paper attempts to examine if regional productivity growth is accounted for by the deepening process of financial development. Towards this end, an appropriate measurement of financial depth is constructed and then included as a determinant of productivity growth. It finds that a significant and positive nexus exists between financial deepening and productivity growth. Given the divergent pattern of financial deepening between coastal and inland provinces, this finding also helps explain the rising regional disparity in China.     

中国转轨时期金融深化与经济增长关系实证分析

文章采用协整检验与基于VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验,分析了改革开放以来我国金融深化与经济增长之间的关系.研究表明,金融深化与经济增长既存在长期的稳定关系,也存在双向因果关系.因此,在促进我国经济增长的战略中,要充分重视金融深化因素的作用.同时通过聚类分析表明,我国金融深化进程以1991年为界限划分为前后两个阶段,在前一个阶段中经济增长主导金融深化,而在后一个阶段中金融深化主导经济增长.     

From financial repression to financial crisis? The case of China

This study explores the connections between financial repression policies and the possibility of financial crisis, a relationship that has been overlooked in previous literature. We focus on China, a country with one of the highest levels of financial repression in the world. China's case shows that when financial repression is maintained at a modest level, as the government did before 2008, the possibility of a financial crisis is low; however, when financial repression policies are pushed to an excessive level, as the government did after 2008, the national asset‐liability structure may be damaged to such an extent that a financial crisis becomes likely. The key to understanding the changing role of China's financial repression policies lies in the survival strategy of the Chinese party‐state, which regards finance as a powerful weapon and is eager to use it to address certain economic, political, or social problems that may endanger its rule.     

The process of financial reforms in China

This study aims to show that financial reforms in China can be viewed as an endogenous adjustment process responding primarily to economic growth and changes in political constraints. The author's argument is thus against the mainstream view in which financial reforms are regarded as primary policy tools for the promotion of economic growth. Three factors are carefully examined for the explanation of the endogenous characteristics of financial reforms. First, this paper takes a close look at endogenous aspects of Chinese financial repression. The endogenous characters of financial repression explain why financial reforms in China follow an endogenous path. Second, recent developments of legal frameworks are found to have been institutional responses to macroeconomic imbalances, financial disorders, and increased demands for property right protection. Finally, this paper shows that the lack of market infrastructure and various political constraints have been major obstacles for China's capital market development.     

战后日本实现金融深化的路径分析

战后赶超期日本通过"温和"的金融约束实现了金融深化,但金融约束政策在应该放松甚至退出的时机没有放松或退出阻碍了金融体系促进经济增长的作用;金融自由化以来日本通过市场增进--体系重建与改进监管并进的路径实现了金融深化.日本的经验证明金融部门的深化可以促进经济发展,但其效果视不同经济体的发展阶段而不同,不同经济体应视各自经济体的情况选择金融深化的手段.日本金融深化过程中金融制度"创新"与"监管"并举的做法对后危机时代各国金融体系的重建具有重要的借鉴意义.     

我国金融压抑与通货膨胀关系研究——基于MSVAR模型的分析

文章运用MSVAR模型对我国金融压抑程度与通货膨胀的关系进行了研究,发现我国通货膨胀率存在明显的高通胀区域和低通胀区域特征。在高通胀区域,价格高位持续时间较短,波动幅度大,金融压抑对通货膨胀具有显著的负向效应;而在低通胀区域,价格低位持续时间较长,波动幅度小,金融压抑对通胀水平的效应是正向的。两者的非线性特征对货币政策实施和金融自由化策略有着重要的政策含义。     

中国-东盟区域经济合作与金融深化战略研究

中国-东盟自贸区全面启动近两年来,区域经济合作的步伐逐步加快,但在区域金融合作等领域则面临着一些发展的短板。本文基于中国-东盟自贸区建立以来双方区域经济合作和金融合作的现状,依托金融深化理论,对中国-东盟区域金融合作的存在问题和发展趋势进行了深入分析。结果表明:中国-东盟自贸区的区域金融合作已取得一定进展,但仍处于初步合作阶段。深化双方区域金融合作,要克服本国金融抑制的消极影响,同时通过金融深化推动双方在金融监管和汇率协调机制等方面的合作。     

基于金融科技上市公司的企业风险研究

通过广泛阅读相关文献,对发现企业面对的风险、风险出现的原因进行研究,采用Python爬虫获取金融科技上市企业数据及不同种类的风险事件的数据,再进行数据分析和金融科技与企业风险相关性研究.通过数据集对模型的验证,得出模型的正确率为0.834.结果表明:企业刚进入金融科技业务模块,提高了企业效率,降低了企业风险,随着金融科技发展的逐步深入,金融科技在企业中占比越来越多时,企业风险随之变高;同时,企业地区经营范围和企业年限带来的风险容易组合出现,企业规模和高管薪酬造成的风险容易组合出现,企业年限、企业利润和企业高管薪酬带来的风险容易组合出现,要特别注意企业年限和高管薪酬,原因在于容易与别的因素组合带来风险组合效应.     

农村资本投入对农民收入影响的实证分析

本文通过衡量农业贷款、乡镇企业贷款、财政支农资金等不同资本投入对农民收人的影响,说明农村金融发展与农民收入增长之间的关系,认为:需要通过金融深化消除妨碍农民收入增长的金融抑制。     

Challenges and opportunities in El Salvador's financial sector

The formal financial sector has expanded rapidly in postwar El Salvador, encouraged by premature financial liberalization and a remittance windfall, exceeding commercial banks' capacities to lend prudently. The counterpart of this spurious financial deepening is a shallow financial market for smaller firms, which reflects both difficult real conditions for small urban and agricultural enterprises, and the unfortunate effects of the credit-channeling model characterizing development banks and most nongovernment organization projects. This model discourages the growth of small-scale institutions that can fund themselves from local resources, and limits the ability of small producers to accumulate financial savings.     

Interest Rate Liberalization and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Dynamic Linkage

Abstract: This paper examines the dynamic impact of interest rate reforms on economic growth in Zambia—using two models in a stepwise fashion. In the first model, the efficacy of interest rate liberalization is examined by regressing the interest rate on the level of financial deepening. In the second model, the causal relationship between financial depth and economic growth is examined by incorporating savings as an intermittent variable in the bivariate setting, thereby creating a simple trivariate model. Using the cointegration‐based error correction model, the study finds strong support for the positive impact of interest rate liberalization on financial deepening. In addition, the study finds that financial deepening, which results from interest rate liberalization, Granger causes economic growth. The results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run. Other results show that: (1) lagged financial depth leads to further financial deepening; (2) savings and economic growth Granger cause each other; and (3) financial development Granger causes savings in the long run.     

The current global financial crisis: Do Asian stock markets show contagion or interdependence effects?

In the framework of the current global economic crisis, a pertinent question is whether the world economies are suffering from contagion or interdependence effects. With its origins in the US sub-prime mortgage market crisis starting at the end of 2007, when a loss of confidence by investors in the value of securitized mortgages resulted in a liquidity crisis, hard-hitting the banking system and rapidly spreading into the financial markets, the effects of the crisis were automatically reflected in the rest of the world economies. These effects become more severe as the rest of the world is facing economic and financial instability. Therefore, the American shock can be seen as the trigger that revealed the other economies’ own financial problems. The main finding of this paper shows that the US stock markets are not generating contagious effects into the Asian stock markets. However, strong evidence of volatility transmission derived from these economies’ interlinkages has been detected.     

基于金融稳定目标的规则型货币政策研究

随着货币政策与金融稳定之间联系的不断深化，中央银行理应在防范金融市场系统性风险中发挥重要的作用。文章首先构建我国金融稳定指数，并将其加入线性货币政策规则，研究结果表明，中央银行在调整名义利率时的确对金融稳定状况有所关注，相比于传统泰勒规则，纳入金融稳定指数的泰勒规则中通胀系数与产出缺口系数均有显著改善，其能够更好地拟合中央银行的实际政策操作。随后，为了进一步考察货币当局对名义利率调整的动态变化特征，文章通过TVP-SV-VAR模型对拓展的时变参数泰勒规则进行了再估计。研究发现，随着经济周期和金融形势的更迭，中央银行也会不断动态调整其政策目标。其中，货币政策对通货膨胀的调控不存在明显的惰性区域，控制通胀始终是中央银行工作的重心。其次，中央银行存在规避经济收缩的偏好，在经济下行时期其对货币政策的调整会向产出缺口倾斜。最后，为了抑制金融机构的过度风险承担，货币当局在本次金融危机之后显著增强了对于金融稳定的关注。     

Are structural parameters of DSGE models stable in Korea?

This paper examines whether the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are stable over time in Korea. By estimating a DSGE model, we find evidence that the 1997 Asian financial crisis did not change structural parameters in spite of significant policy changes and institutional reforms. This empirical finding has important significance for Korea's policymakers, as they can no longer rely on a DSGE modeling strategy for policy analysis and forecasting without structural parameter stability. Moreover, this paper shows that the current DSGE model is superior to simple time series models in forecasting key macroeconomic variables in most cases. Finally, the current model successfully reproduces the relative volatilities of consumption, investment and hours worked with respect to output as well as the pattern of contemporaneous correlations of output with other variables.     

我国农业信贷制度构建：基于金融抑制理论的分析

我国农村普遍存在的金融抑制严重制约着现代农业和农村经济的发展，解决金融抑制根本还在于制度创新。本文结合发展中国家的金融抑制理论，在对我国农村金融抑制现状进行深入分析的基础上，探讨了农业信贷制度对化解农村金融抑制的效用，最后提出了构建我国农业信贷制度的基本框架。     

基于宏观因子的SVR-Black-Litterman资产配置模型及其实证研究

随着全球经济不稳定性的增强和我国利率市场化的深入推进,金融资产的波动性不断加剧,资产组合优化配置问题依然是金融投资理论研究和实务领域的核心问题。Black-Litterman模型因其解决了传统均值方差模型对参数敏感的问题,且允许将投资者观点融入模型中,已被广泛应用于资产配置实践中。然而投资者观点矩阵的确定一直是Black-Litterman模型理论和应用研究的难点。将宏观因子融入投资者观点矩阵,应用基于主成分分析法的支持向量回归(SVR)模型实现观点矩阵的估计,构建融入宏观因子的SVR-Black-Litterman资产配置模型。为检验模型的有效性,将该模型与经典模型进行比较。实证结果表明,所构建的模型具有较好的市场表现。     

A model of real and financial household behaviour

Summary This paper shows that the traditional specification of the consumption function in Dutch macroeconometric models is unsatisfactory. In the traditional approach the fact that the consumption decision is taken simultaneously with financial decisions has been ignored. If both the consumption function and the asset demand equations are modelled simultaneously, then in the Dutch case financial stocks have influence on private consumption. Also it has been shown that the income concept is important in describing household behaviour. In a current income model short-term financial considerations are important in the consumption decision. In a permanent income model long-term financial considerations influence private consumption.The author would like to thank Professor Th. van de Klundert, Professor S.K. Kuipers, Mr. G.H. Kuper and Dr. N.S. Kroonenberg for their comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Financial crisis and saving–investment dynamics in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: The case of East Asia

Using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction model, we examine the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the behavior of saving and investment in East Asian countries. Our results show that saving and investment rates are highly dependent across countries of East Asia. This finding underlines the importance of taking into account cross-sectional dependence when analyzing saving–investment relationship. The results also indicate that the adverse financial shock of 1997 has negatively affected the short run correlation between saving and investment, but has not influenced their long run relationship. Our finding, hence, verifies the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic theories regarding the divergence of short run saving–investment from its long run trend for East Asia. Moreover, we find that the global financial crisis of 2008 has not affected the saving–investment dynamics in this region. It means that the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for saving–investment dynamics are not the same in East Asia. One might attribute these differences to the origins of these two shocks, i.e., internal versus external to the region. These findings may have some policy implications for those countries that rely heavily on foreign investment and are subject to various internal and external financial shocks.     

循序渐进地推进我国金融深化的对策选择

随着金融改革力度的不断加大,我国的金融深化问题已成为金融领域的重要问题之一。目前我国金融业飞速发展,金融结构发生显著的变化,金融深化程度不断提高。我们要积极主动地面对金融深化进程中存在的市场效率损失问题,建立一个高效的金融市场,推动和指导中国金融深化进一步深入,使金融深化带动经济增长。