金融寒冬后的时尚复苏

一场轰轰烈烈的金融风暴席卷全球,我们同全球经济一起经历了寒冷的冬天.然而时尚,这一永不退缩的时代强音,并没有如次贷危机般令人失望,它正伴随春天的脚步慢慢复苏.     

EXPLAINING THE MARKET POWER OF GHANAIAN BANKS1

A competitive banking system helps lower transaction costs and risks. It also helps make financial markets more efficient. In Ghana however, observers believe that the banking industry is not competitive and point to the huge spread between bank lending and borrowing rates as evidence. The Ghanaian banking industry is analysed for evidence of market power by computing the Lerner Index of banks using quarterly data from 2001 to 2006. The evidence is that Ghanaian banks possess market power. Factors that significantly explain the market power of Ghanaian banks are: bank size, efficiency of banks with respect to staff costs, the macroeconomic environment and time.     

REAL AND DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS OF PETROLEUM PRICE LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

The effect of higher petroleum prices on the aggregate price level, real growth, and income distribution is appraised within a multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A reduction in the government subsidy raises petroleum prices and production costs throughout the economy. Consumer demand, production, and income decline as output prices increase and consumer purchasing power decreases. The model is applied to and calibrated for Indonesia. The simulated results predict a slight increase in the price level and a slight decrease in output. An important result is that urban household groups will be the most significantly affected by the subsidy reduction.     

MEASURING THE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN NAMIBIA

This paper examines the efficiency of commercial banks in Namibia using the standard econometric frontier approach. Although two aspects of efficiency (scale and scope) receive our attention, the emphasis is on the latter which pertains to whether a firm produces as efficiently as it possibly can, given its size. Our results indicate that substantial economies of scale exist in commercial banking in Namibia. This will tend to suggest that commercial banks in Namibia can increase their efficiency by increasing their current scale of operation. The results for scope economies show that the current level of input combination does not make for maximum efficiency as sufficient scope exists for a more efficient combination of inputs. We believe this will reduce operating costs in the industry and stimulate efficiency.     

资产证券化与商业银行在金融体系中相对地位的变化

文章从资产证券化的效率角度论述了资产证券化趋势与商业银行相对地位下降间的关系。资产证券化下资金融通方式的变革、风险管理方式的转变和专业化分工的发展带来直接融资地位的上升与金融体系效率的提高,从而导致金融市场的重要性日渐上升和商业银行相对地位的下降。     

中国城市商业银行效率动态变化的Malmquist指数研究

关于银行业的效率研究,主要探讨如何通过较少的成本投入获得最大的收益,促进银行业的健康持续发展。本文基于DEA多种投入多种产出的角度,运用DEAP软件对2006～2010年我国13家城市商业银行的运营效率进行分析,通过Malmquist指数方法对银行效率进行分解研究。总体来说,我国城市商业银行运营效率呈现出下降的趋势。     

Efficiency Analysis of China＇s Commercial Banks Based on DEA： Negative Output Investigation

This paper focuses on the shortcomings of the extensively-used method of DEA in evaluating the efficiency of bank, i.e., the DEA method cannot make further comparisons to the efficient units and it does not take into account the situation of negative input or output value. We use the BCC model in DEA to measure the fourteen Chinese commercial banks＇ efficiency in 1999. Since BCC model has the property of transformation invariance, the problem of negative input or output value is thus resolved. We also use the super-efficiency DEA model to rank all the efficient units completely.     

中国上市商业银行DEA效率分析

采用数据包络分析方法,对2009-2011年中国13家上市商业银行的效率进行了测算,从技术效率、规模效率和纯技术效率等方面进行了分析,并对国有上市商业银行和股份制上市商业银行的各个效率进行了比较,认为股份制上市商业银行主要由于较高的纯技术效率而整体效率高于国有上市商业银行。     

THE DETERMINANTS OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: INSTITUTIONS, OPENNESS AND FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION

This paper provides new evidence that sheds light on the influence of institutional quality, trade openness and financial liberalisation on financial market development, using data from 27 economies (the G-7, Europe, East Asia and Latin America) during 1980-2001. The dynamic panel data analysis results demonstrate that real income per capita and institutional quality are statistically significant determinants of banking sector development and capital market development. The trade openness, however, is more prominent in promoting capital market development. In terms of financial liberalisation, the empirical results suggest that domestic financial sector reforms tend to promote banking sector development, whereas stock market liberalisation is potent in delivering stock market development. Nevertheless, the financial liberalisation programmes are more responsive in developed economies.     

基于DEA的我国上市商业银行经营效率分析（2003-2010）

主要以我国13家上市商业银行2003—2010年的数据为研究样本,选取投入和产出指标,运用DEA模型对其技术效率、纯技术效率以及规模效率进行分析、比较,研究表明股份制商业银行明显要比国有商业银行的经营效率高,规模效率低影响了商业银行整体效率。文章最后指出要提高我国上市商业银行的经营效率,可以从提高我国上市商业银行规模效率和创新能力等几个方面着手。     

城商行技术效率差异(2007-2012)：来自苏鲁浙区域样本的分析

浙江、江苏、山东三地经济金融发达、市场化程度高,剖析其城商行技术效率差异及其影响因素对于国内城商行技术效率差异研究具有重要的参考价值。文章以三地19家城商行2007-2012年的面板数据作为样本,通过随机前沿生产函数(SFA)估算近六年的技术效率及变化趋势,并研究影响其技术效率差异的非效率因素。研究发现,三地城商行六年来技术效率逐年提升,且浙江、山东五家城商行六年平均技术效率值位居前列,并表现出较为稳定的技术效率状态;法人治理结构是影响样本城商行技术效率差异的重要因素,适度分散化的股权结构及战略投资者持股与样本城商行的技术效率显著正相关。     

基于DEA-Tobit二阶段法的城市商业银行效率评价——以中部六省9家城市商业银行为例

针对我国城市商业银行效率评价方法单一且区域化研究较少的问题,利用数据包络分析超效率模型对中部六省城市商业银行经营效率进行了评价,对其结果进行了进一步的投影分析,并在此基础上,运用Tobit模型分析了银行效率的影响因素。实证结果表明,人均营业费用和存贷比与银行经营效率成负相关,资本充足率与银行经营效率成正相关。     

CURRENCY CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF POST‐LIBERALIZATION TURKEY

This article investigates the determinants of currency crises in Turkey. It analyzes the two major currency crises of 1994 and 2000–2001 in the light of the existing theoretical models. The present study uses logit, probit, and limited dependent models to explain the currency crises in the post–capital account liberalization era. The results obtained from the three approaches are generally consistent and the coefficients obtained for the explanatory variables generally have the same sign. The findings suggest that the currency crises in Turkey are associated with global liquidity conditions, fiscal imbalances, capital outflows, and banking sector weaknesses.     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND WAGE PREMIUM IN ARGENTINA: THE ROLE OF TRADE FACTOR INTENSITY

During the 1990s, several Latin American countries implemented policies directed to the removal of barriers on international trade. However, there is a perception that reforms, especially trade liberalization, failed to deliver on their promises, easing the way for policies aimed at reversing some of them. Following Wood's hypothesis, we allow for the effects of liberalization to vary, depending on the skill intensity of production. The evidence confirms that the role of trade liberalization has been relatively small, but controlling for the presence of endogeneity gives larger estimates. Contrary to previous evidence, the wage premium of skilled workers was more sensitive to the increase of skill‐intensive exports than to that of unskilled‐intensive imports.     

REGIONAL FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA – AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF ITS EFFECTS ON FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT

This article examines the effects of political agreements on regional financial integration (RFI) on financial market development and access to and cost of finance in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Our results suggest that RFI positively affects financial development – measured very broadly as ratio of liquid liabilities to gross domestic product (GDP) – when combined with a sufficient level of institutional quality. If institutional quality is below a threshold level, RFI apparently has negative effects on financial development. However, we cannot find any significant effects of RFI on the ratio of private credit to GDP or on the efficiency of the banking sector. Regarding the effects of RFI on access to and costs of finance of enterprises in SSA, our results are mixed. We can find no significant effect of RFI on access to finance for all firms in the aggregate, but the results indicate that RFI actually impedes small firms' access to finance. Furthermore, there is a significant positive influence of foreign bank involvement on the severity of the credit constraint for small enterprises, while we do not find such an influence for large enterprises. These results provide some support for the foreign bank barrier hypothesis in the context of RFI.