Corporate innovation in China and its implications

China's current economic transition policies focus on shifting from export‐driven manufacturing towards high‐end, high‐tech research and development (R&D), and domestic consumption. Since the early 2000s the government has issued a series of policies and guidelines to encourage innovation. Both in‐house R&D investment and the number of patent grants/applications have seen considerable growth in recent years. More specifically, industry‐funded R&D was responsible for more than three quarters of total in‐house R&D investment. Despite the rapid growth in R&D expenditure and the number of patents, China's corporate innovation still faces many obstacles and challenges. To further stimulate corporate innovation, the government may need to create an environment of fair competition for domestic enterprises, encourage the growth of institutional investors and their active participation in corporate governance, and improve the efficiency of financial systems. The experience of China in promoting innovation provides policy approaches and implications from which other emerging economies can learn.     

Dawn of Industrialisation? The Indonesian Automotive Industry

This article traces the development of industrial policy towards the Indonesian motor industry within the automotive global value chain. Showing the current dominance of Japanese motor assemblers in Indonesia, it notes the rather undeveloped nature of the locally owned supporting industry, particularly compared with that of neighbouring Thailand. Most investment in auto-parts production has been by foreigners. Nevertheless, Indonesia's rapid domestic-market growth has allowed it to attract foreign automotive investment without having to offer excessively generous incentives. While the continued entry of foreign suppliers of auto parts into Indonesia offers opportunities for local suppliers to upgrade their productive capabilities, it also limits their chances of becoming first-tier suppliers themselves. Japanese automotive investors are optimistic about Indonesia's export potential, more so than Malaysia's.     

研发投入对我国经济影响分析

通过分析1995年以来我国研发投入费用、研发活动主体、研发投入结构变化趋势的基础上,选取1995年至2019年研发投入总量、研发投入强度、国内生产总值、单位GDP能耗等数据样本,对研发投入与经济规模、工业化进程以及经济运行效率三方面的关系进行了评估分析,发现,研发投入推动了我国经济规模的持续扩大,加速了工业化进程,提高了经济运行效率,同时,认为研发投入差距是区域经济发展不平衡的重要原因.     

Saving not Spending: Indonesia’s Domestic Demand Problem

Indonesian income per capita has risen rapidly in the past 10 years. The growth in income, combined with an expanding middle class, has corresponded with strong growth in retail sales. Recently, however, this trend has started to change. Consumption growth has been relatively stable, but retail sales are growing more slowly than in the past. In order to develop a clearer picture of consumer spending in Indonesia, we discuss differences in spending behaviour across two income groups—lower-middle income and upper-high income. Consumption varies across income groups, so saving and investment patterns may also vary. We find that the upper-high income group, despite having more income than in the past, is less willing to invest and borrow than previously, and that the lower-middle income group continues to suffer from a lack of purchasing power. Meanwhile, investors are simply postponing investments, preferring to take a ‘wait and see’ approach. Excess saving can be economically problematic. If effective demand is too weak, it can have negative consequences for long-term economic growth. We begin, however, by surveying recent economic developments in Indonesia, focusing on the third quarter of 2017. Indonesia’s current rate of economic growth (5.1% year on year) places it among the world’s fastest-growing large economies, but the lack of acceleration is a concern: growth has not exceeded 6.0% since the second quarter of 2012. Despite this lack of acceleration, Indonesia has achieved macroeconomic and financial stability. The balance of payments has been improving since early 2016, with a narrow current account deficit—well below 3.0% of GDP—and a surplus trade balance. Exports grew by 17.3% in the third quarter of 2017, owing to rising commodity prices (which boosted export growth in both value and volume), while imports grew by 15.1%, although the impact on economic growth has so far been more moderate than in the commodity boom of 2000–2011. The growth in commodity exports has also benefited Kalimantan, Sumatra, and other commodity-rich regions. However, rising commodity prices come with some caveats. They might boost growth for a short period, but they raise the challenge of making this growth sustainable. We have seen this many times in the past. Increasing institutional capacity to better implement policy initiatives, for one, will help to deliver sustainable, high-quality economic growth.     

我国的出口商品结构与经济增长——加入WTO前后的比较分析

本文利用1995～2010年的季度数据对我国加入WTO前后出口商品结构与经济增长之间的关系进行了比较分析。协整检验显示,在中国加入WTO之前,初级产品出口、工业制成品出口与经济增长间均为正向相关;加入WTO之后,初级产品出口与经济增长为负相关,工业制成品出口与经济增长则为正相关。格兰杰因果检验则显示,在加入WTO前后,初级产品出口、工业制成品出口与经济增长都互为因果。实证分析结果说明,随着我国加入WTO,我国的外贸环境日益改善,出口商品结构不断优化,这对经济增长产生了很大的推动作用;而经济的持续高增长反过来又极大地促进了出口总量的提高以及出口商品结构的进一步优化。     

Industrial Structural Change and Economic Growth in China, 1987–2008

The present paper studies the sources of economic growth and the nature of structural change in the Chinese economy from 1987 to 2008. Using a methodology that evaluates the contribution of an industry to economic growth, the present paper shows that the post‐2000 subperiod marked an increased reliance on the services sector as a source of growth in the Chinese economy. Much of the acceleration in real GDP or aggregate labor productivity growth in China in the post‐2000 subperiod compared to the pre‐2000 period can be traced to an increased contribution from service‐producing and high‐technology exporting manufacturing industries. The evidence indicates that the Chinese economy has been rebalancing toward domestic consumption and shifting its export sector toward high‐technology manufacturing industries.     

The Relation between Market Values,Earnings Forecasts,and Reported Earnings*

Recently, much of the research into the relation between market values and accounting numbers has used, or at least made reference to, the residual income model (RIM). Two basic types of empirical research have developed. The “historical” type explores the relation between market values and reported accounting numbers, often using the linear dynamics in Ohlson 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson 1995 and 1996. The “forecast” type explores the relation between market value and the present value of the book value of equity, a truncated sequence of residual income forecasts, and an estimate of the terminal value at the truncation date. The analysis in this paper integrates these two approaches. We expand the Feltham and Ohlson 1996 model by including one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income forecasts to infer “other” information regarding future revenues from past investments and future growth opportunities. This approach results in a model in which the difference between market value and book value of equity is a function of current residual income, one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income, current capital investment, and start‐of‐period operating assets. The existence of both persistence in revenues from current and prior investments and growth in future positive net present value investment opportunities leads us to hypothesize a negative coefficient on the one‐period‐ahead residual income forecast and a positive coefficient on the two‐period‐ahead residual income forecast. Our empirical results strongly support our hypotheses with respect to the forecast coefficients.     

Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis

Does Uncertainty Affect Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis. — This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on economic growth. We construct measures of export uncertainty, government policy uncertainty and price uncertainty to augment a growth model, and using econometric techniques we test for robustness of the effects of these measures on economic growth in a cross-section of 138 developing and developed economies during the 1970–1995 period. The result clearly shows a robust and negative effect of uncertainty on economic growth. These results underline the importance of export stability and policy credibility.     

Foreign Investment and Industrialization in Malaysia: Exports,Employment and Spillovers*

Over the past two decades, there has been a decisive shift in trade and industry policy in developing countries (DCs) away from import substitution and towards export-orientation. As part of this policy shift, an increasing number of DCs have become more receptive to foreign direct investment (FDI). Despite its policy relevance, the literature on the role of FDI in export expansion, employment generation and spillovers in DCs is sparse. This paper attempts to fill this gap through a case study of the role of export-oriented FDI in Malaysia's rapid industrialization. The overall conclusion of the paper is that export-oriented FDI has brought significant returns to Malaysia principally because the general economic climate has been favourable for the internationalization of production for a considerable period of time.     

房地产投资会阻碍区域经济增长吗？——基于中国2000—2017年的经验证据

近年来中国经济出现增长速度放缓、产业结构失衡等一系列问题,资源错配是产生这些问题的原因之一.从房地产投资出发,分析其通过房地产业、非房地产业、消费、经济风险影响经济增长的作用机制,并利用中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)2000—2017年的面板数据加以实证考察.研究发现:在观测期内,房地产投资对经济增长的促进作用低于非房地产投资;全国样本的实证结果显示房地产投资与经济增长呈现倒"U"形关系,说明房地产投资的增加最终会阻碍经济增长;分区域样本的实证结果表明,东北地区和中部地区与全国样本的趋势一致,呈现倒"U"形关系.其中,东北地区只有辽宁省于2014年跨过拐点,房地产投资对东北地区经济增长主要起到促进作用;中部地区6省分别从2008—2011年开始陆续跨过拐点,并持续至样本期末,说明房地产投资对中部地区经济增长造成的负面影响已经持续了10年左右.东部和西部地区的房地产投资与区域经济增长呈现显著的正向线性关系.     

Challenging the de‐industrialization thesis: gender and indigenous textile production in Java under Dutch colonial rule,c. 1830–1920

Many dependency theorists as well as economic historians have contended that nineteenth‐century imperial policies and economic globalization de‐industrialized the global ‘periphery’. European metropoles extracted raw materials and tropical commodities from their overseas territories, and in turn indigenous consumers bought their industrial products, textiles in particular. This article investigates three of the assumptions of Ricardian trade theory that are often behind the de‐industrialization narrative. In this article it is argued that, at least for colonial Java's textile industry, these assumptions should be reconsidered. Adverse trade policies imposed by the Dutch and a prolonged terms‐of‐trade boom in favour of primary commodities make colonial Java a unique case for exploring the merits of the de‐industrialization thesis. Here it is demonstrated that Javanese households resourcefully responded to changing market circumstances, in the first place by flexible allocation of female labour. Moreover, indigenous textile producers specialized in certain niches that catered for local demand. Because of these factors, local textile production in Java appears to have been much more resilient than most of the historical literature suggests. These findings not only shed new light on the social and economic history of colonial Indonesia, but also contribute to the recent literature on alternative, labour‐intensive paths of industrialization in the non‐western world.     

进出口贸易与大连地区经济增长实证研究

本文选取1990～2006年度大连市统计数据,建立计量经济模型,在模型中加入进口、消费、投资等解释变量,利用协整检验和Granger因果检验对大连市进出口贸易和经济增长关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明大连市的经济增长与进口、出口、消费、投资之间存在着一种长期稳定的关系,进口、出口和投资明显促进了经济增长,而消费对经济增长的影响则并不显著。进、出口贸易与经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系。并在此基础上提出大连市经济发展的政策建议。     

Technological catching-up between two ASEAN members and China: A metafrontier approach

This paper examines the dynamics of the productivity gaps across Indonesia, Vietnam, and China. Based on establishment-level panel datasets in the textile and electronics industries for the period 2000–2007, empirical results obtained from the meta-frontier approach show that there is a technological falling-behind rather than catching-up between Indonesia and China, as well as between Vietnam and China. This widening gap is witnessed in both the labor-intensive textile industry and the capital-intensive electronics industry, because China has experienced faster productivity growth and has upgraded its technological frontier after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. A comparison of the two latecomers finds that Indonesia firms exhibit better productivity performance than do Vietnamese firms.     

新疆阿拉山口口岸发展与博州地区经济增长实证分析

阿拉山口口岸是新疆最重要的口岸。本文在分析阿拉山口口岸发展的基础上,利用相关经济统计数据,对阿拉山口口岸和博州经济增长之间进行了相关分析,认为阿拉山口的进出口对博州的经济有积极的拉动作用;同时,还带动了博州旅游业的发展,吸引了内、外资在博州的投资。     

新疆对外贸易与经济增长的实证分析

本文根据新疆1990年-2005年的统计数据,利用协整理论和格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验对新疆国内生产总值、投资和进出口贸易之间的关系进行分析。结果表明新疆国内生产总值与投资及进出口之间存在长期稳定的关系,投资和出口增长是拉动经济增长的原因,而经济增长却不是拉动投资、进出口增长的原因。     

人口年龄结构转变对经常项目差额的影响机制与实证分析

本文对人口年龄结构转变作用于经常项目差额的影响机制进行了分析,在此基础上运用协整、基于VECM的Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析了劳动力抚养负担、经济增长和经常项目差额之间的动态关系。研究发现,应从长期性结构视角认识劳动力抚养负担对经常项目差额的反向作用;短期来看,二者之间不存在显著关系。与此不同,经济增长对经常项目的影响无论是长期还是短期都非常显著。快速减轻的劳动力抚养负担通过储蓄、消费、投资、出口以及政府财政收支等传导变量促使经常项目差额增加,这是人口年龄结构、经济增长以及经常项目差额之间动态关系产生的内在逻辑。     

熵权法测度下广东绿色经济受FDI影响的实证研究

为促进广东省经济增长"高质量"与生态环境"高颜值"协同发展,本文基于熵权法先测算出广东省2000-2018年间绿色GDP,再运用单位根检验、协整性检验、格兰杰因果关系检验等计量经济学方法分析了广东省2000-2018年间FDI对绿色经济的影响程度。实证分析结果表明:广东外商直接投资是其绿色经济增长的格兰杰原因,对于绿色经济的增长具有促进作用。同时,大量的外商直接投资对广东外贸进出口产生巨大的替代效应,抑制了外贸发展对广东绿色经济的贡献度。     

An analysis of the impact of the first phase of South Africa's motor industry development programme (midp), 1995–2000

The South African motor vehicle industry is an important branch of the local manufacturing sector, contributing significantly to manufacturing value added and employment. Over the last decade, the local industry has undergone a series of policy reforms, and in recent years has increasingly been exposed to globalisation. This article reviews the role of government policy in shaping the industry, and examines the impact of the first phase of the Motor Industry Development Programme on the industry for the period 1995–2000 in respect of domestic production, automotive industry employment, export performance and the automotive trade balance. The article concludes that even though the industry registered strong export growth that contributed to improving the automotive trade deficit, it was deficient in sustaining domestic production and employment levels. The imminent challenge for the local industry's development is to maintain its export growth trajectory in the long term in the absence of costly government protective incentive mechanisms.     

中间产品、工业化转型与中国经济增长

文章认为，最终需求和出口需求对我国工业化与经济增长的推动作用逐渐减弱，中间产品对工业化和经济增长可发挥积极作用，收入效应、分配效应、降低最低有效规模和提高生产率是中间产品影响工业化的主要途径，而规模、技术、人力资源和一些其它条件是制约中间产品生产扩张的主要因素。中间产品生产发展不足和我国存在的就业不足、技术进步缓慢、收入分配不公与工业化趋缓和经济增长放慢等问题密切相关，我国已具备大力发展中间产品生产、以中间产品生产扩张促进工业化转型、推动中国经济增长的基础。文章提出了采取大推进策略、延伸产业链和加强制度建设等对策以加快发展中间产品。     

The role of foreign direct investment in Indonesia's manufacturing exports

This article examines whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to the changing structure of Indonesia's manufacturing exports. It uses industry-level data from 1990 to 2008, classified by factor intensity. Our analysis reveals that FDI promotes exports in most panel observations, especially exports from physical-capital-intensive (PCI), human-capital-intensive (HCI) and technology-intensive (TI) industries. Yet by applying a differentiated cross-section-effect model, we determine that the export-generating potential of FDI is stronger in PCI, HCI and TI industries than in natural-resource-intensive or unskilled-labour-intensive industries, in which Indonesia has a comparative advantage. We also assess the influence of other determinants of export performance – namely, private domestic capital investment, GDP growth and exchange rates. Our findings have implications for policymakers seeking to sustain Indonesia's export performance.