TRADE PATTERNS AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: TESTING THE ASIAN CURRENCY BASKET USING AN INTERNATIONAL INPUT‐OUTPUT SYSTEM

This paper aims at analyzing exchange rates and trade patterns of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, China, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in relation to Japan and the United States, with reference to the Asian currency crises in 1997. In order to analyze these issues, we constructed an international input‐output model linked with macroeconometric models of the ten countries/regions. Analyses on the Asian exchange rates with a currency basket peg framework show that the Asian exchange rate policy was the de‐facto dollar peg policy. As for trade patterns in relation to the yen‐dollar rate; when a country/region's industrial structure is similar to that of Japan's and the yen is weak, the appropriate change of the yen's weight proves to hold its competitiveness. By contrast, the weak yen shows a decrease of its imports, regarding complementary structure. In either case, however, effects are limited.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND SPECIALIZATION IN BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY: THE EVOLUTION OF LEADING COMPANIES AND THE M&A PROCESS

This paper analyzes changes in the Brazilian productive structure and in ownership structures of leading companies during the 1990s. It uses information from balance sheets published in Gazeta Mercantil and from the Thomson Financial Securities Data database on M&A. The main findings are: (i) the sectoral distribution of leading companies has remained stable; (ii) there has been a strong change in the ownership structure in Brazil, with an increase in the participation of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the sample of leading companies; (iii) this increase in participation may be partially, though not integrally, explained by M&A transactions; (iv) though the M&A process has been quite intensive in the period, productive concentration has decreased among the group of leading companies; and (v) acquiring firms have adopted specializing strategies during the period. This trend is even clearer when private national enterprises (PNEs) are examined separately.     

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY*

This paper is an econometric study of the Indonesian economy. Our intention is to evaluate the interactions within the Indonesian economy, to forecast the selected economic variables under given assumptions, and to measure the effects of various policies. This is to be achieved through an cconometric analysis which uses the available statistics and which provides an analytical framework for the present national income statistics.     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND PRICE‐COST MARGIN IN INDIAN INDUSTRIES

Using panel data for 137 three‐digit industries for 1980/81 to 1997/98, the paper examines the effect of trade liberalization on price‐cost margins in Indian industries. An econometric model is estimated to explain variations in price‐cost margins, taking tariff and nontariff barriers among the explanatory variables. The results indicate that the lowering of tariffs and removal of quantitative restrictions on imports of manufactures in the 1990s had a significant pro‐competitive effect on Indian industries, particularly concentrated industries, tending to reduce the price‐cost margins. The paper notes that despite the pro‐competitive effects of trade liberalization reinforced by domestic industrial deregulation, the price‐cost margin increased in the post‐reform period in most industries and aggregate manufacturing, which is attributed to a marked fall in the growth rate of real wages and a significant reduction in labor's income share in value added in the post‐reform period, reflecting perhaps a weakening of industrial labor's bargaining power.     

TRADE AND INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION: JAPANESE AMMONIUM SULPHATE INDUSTRY IN THE INTERWAR PERIOD

Trade is considered an effective antidote to the exercise of domestic market power. This article, through an analysis of the structure, conduct and performance of the Japanese ammonium sulphate industry during the interwar period, shows that trade is not always a sufficient condition for domestic markets to become competitive. In industries exhibiting substantial economies of scale, availability and diffusion of technology, existence of surplus international capacity and the ability of domestic producers to deter imports can impede instantaneous adjustment of international supply to imbalances in demand and supply thereby allowing domestic producers to exercise their market power.     

EXPORTING AND PRODUCTIVITY: A FIRM‐LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE TAIWAN ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY

Based on the panel data of Taiwanese electronics firms, this paper explores the relationship between exporting and productivity. Contemporaneous levels of exports and productivity are indeed positively correlated. The causality tests show causality from productivity to exporting and vice versa, implying that self‐selection and learning‐by‐exporting effects coexist in the Taiwan electronics industry, while the learning‐by‐exporting effect is less supported. Exporting also has a positive impact on the productivity growth of firms, while the effect diminishes gradually after entering foreign markets. Decomposing the productivity growth shows that the reallocation effect accounts for only 20 per cent compared to the own‐effect share of 80 per cent, which is mostly contributed by firms that continually export.     

AN ANALYSIS OF MACRO‐ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE IN SADC1

One of the goals of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is macro‐economic convergence leading to monetary unification and a single central bank. This goal is aligned with the goal of the African Union to build a monetary union for the entire continent in stages, starting with each of the subregions, of which SADC forms one important region. Despite views to the contrary, the current degree of compliance with the Maastricht criteria for convergence and membership of the European Union, shows that the challenges facing a SADC monetary union would not be insurmountable if the convergence criteria are viewed as permanent goals, rather than preconditions.     

DETERMINISTIC, STOCHASTIC, AND SEGMENTED TRENDS IN AGGREGATE OUTPUT: A CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS

This paper examines whether output per capita in 126 countriesis better described as trend or difference stationary, usingappropriate finite-sample critical values. Depending upon whetherone uses solely a test with a trend stationary null, or solelyone with a difference stationary null, very different conclusionsare obtained. This outcome suggests that it is useful to considerthe tests complementary, rather than competing. We find thatwhen a definite characterization of GDP can be made, it is verylikely to indicate a difference stationary process. However,the likelihood of making definite conclusions does vary positivelywith both income level and data quality.