中国制造业出口贸易的技术结构分布及其国际比较

借鉴Lall(2000)及OECD(2008)的方法,利用1995～2006年三位数《标准国际贸易分类》数据,本文分析了中国制造业出口贸易的技术结构分布,并与世界主要国家和地区进行了比较。研究发现:(1)从贸易统计上看,中国制造业出口的技术结构已经由低技术制造业转向了高技术制造业。(2)与日本、美国和德国等世界主要发达国家以汽车、化工和机械等中技术制成品出口为主不同,中国的出口主要集中在低技术制成品和高技术制成品,其中低技术制成品以纺织、皮革和鞋类为主,而高技术制成品则以信息和通信技术产品为主。(3)中国出口贸易的技术结构与发展中经济体更为相似,特别是向亚洲新兴工业经济体不断趋同;与发达经济体的差异虽然较大,但正迅速向其趋同。由于中国高技术产品的出口贸易主要依靠外资企业和加工贸易,中国出口贸易的技术结构分布和贸易竞争力可能被夸大了。     

Looking into global value chains: influence of foreign services on export performance

Using data from the OECD Inter-Country Input–Output database, we explore the impact of foreign services value added content of exports on export performance, specifically on duration of trade. Our data show that the share of foreign services content in manufacturing exports grows from 1995 to 2011, in a way similar to foreign goods content, and in contrast to the decreasing share of domestic services. Moreover, the share of foreign services value added content is larger for developing and emerging countries than for advanced countries. Our econometric findings confirm that foreign services value added embodied in manufacturing exports contribute positively to more resilient exports relationships, a positive effect which occurs for the three groups of manufacturing industries (high, medium and low technology industries) and, for each group, it is more pronounced for developing and emerging economies.     

Chinese exports and productivity gains: panel evidence

This paper examines the impact of imports from China on the labour productivity levels of importers, using unbalanced data from 1994 to 2006. It is hypothesised that imports from China increase importer countries' labour productivity levels. Using cross‐section, fixed and random‐effect models, a statistically significant, positive relationship is found between the share of a country's imports from China and labour productivity in the manufacturing sector of that country. Moreover, it is found that imports from China have a larger impact on China's main Asian‐Pacific trade partners and countries with higher manufacturing shares in their total exports.     

Anti‐dumping Shock and the Productivity Response of Chinese Industries

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the productivity effects of antidumping (AD) measures on Chinese industries. Industry‐year panel data and generalized method of moments estimators are used in the empirical analysis. Productivity indicators are calculated using data envelope analysis. The empirical results show that China's industrial total factor productivity has improved under the pressure of AD measures taken by developed countries, and the mechanism inspires technological progress but hurts technological efficiency. Developing countries' AD measures have no significant productivity effects on China's targeted industries, except for slightly positive effects on technological efficiency. These results indicate that China should pay more attention to technological innovation and take different counter‐measures for different cases of AD measures.     

R&;D,trade, and productivity growth in korean manufacturing

This paper investigates the effects of both R&D spillovers and trade patterns on productivity in Korean manufacturing, using industry-level data. The results show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks played an important R&D in improving the total factor productivity of Korean manufacturing. Moreover, productivity is higher in export industries and the more open industries, and the effects of foreign R&D capital are stronger in the industries with large import shares or large intra-industry trade shares. JEL no. F10, O32, O47.     

Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Industry and its Impacts on the Neighbouring Countries

This paper investigates the rapid growth of China's share in the international commodity market and the structural changes of China's commodity exports. It demonstrates a significant improvement of international competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector. The panel data analysis, based on a Solow–Swan type growth model on China's 37 manufacturing industries from 1991 to 2002, reveals that the main sources of the strengthened competitiveness of China's manufacturing sector have been mainly from Total Factor Productivity (TFP), while labour productivity has been increasing and capital productivity has been falling. A preliminary empirical analysis on the impacts of China's increasing competitiveness finds that there are negative correlations between China and most of its neighbouring countries, both newly industrialised economies and other Southeast Asian developing economies. However, there is no evidence of negative impacts of China's increasing competitiveness on developed countries such as the United States and Japan.     

Productivity,mechanization and skills: A test of the Hirschman hypothesis for Latin American industry

This paper attempts to test the paradoxical Hirschman hypothesis relating to the suitability of certain capital-intensive industries for less industrialized countries based on the ‘process-centred’ or ‘machine-paced’ nature of those industries which makes their productivity less dependent on the quality of local labour. Following extensive discussion of the methodology (e.g. problems of selection and specification of the variables explaining productivity differentials, and problems in specifying the appropriate variables to be explained), the author presents and analyses results for seven Latin American countries. These countries were chosen because of their more highly developed industrial structure, i.e. higher industrial value added per capita and a more diversified product mix, in order to provide a more severe test of the hypothesis. Although the results are not definitive, they seem to indicate that the industries which did better in relative productivity terms were those based on abundant local resources or of a traditional character on the whole; rather a reaffirmation of comparative advantage with little paradox.     

EXPORT‐LED GROWTH IN CHILE: ASSESSING THE ROLE OF EXPORT COMPOSITION IN PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

This study examines the export‐led growth hypothesis using annual time‐series data from Chile in a production function framework. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on productivity growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and primary exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, several single‐equation and system cointegration techniques are applied. The estimation results can be interpreted as evidence of productivity‐enhancing effects of manufactured exports and of productivity‐limiting effects of primary exports.     

版权保护对美国出口影响的实证分析

本文采用引力模型,对美国与不同国家的贸易截面数据进行实证分析显示,美国核心版权产品由于版权保护水平的的提高,对强模仿威胁国家(低保护高模仿)会带来显著的市场扩张效应;增加美国核心版权产品的出口,对弱模仿威胁国家(高保护低模仿)会带来显著的市场力量效应,会使美国出口下降。     

Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports

As a large trading nation, China competes with importing countries’ domestic and third‐country markets but also creates growth opportunities for exporters. Most studies on China trade shocks or “China shocks” focuse on the impacts of import competition on developed economies. The present paper complements research on China shocks by exploring the other side of the trade exposure to China – China as the largest importer, rather than as an exporter. We analyze the effects of export expansion into China on the local labor markets of the exporting developing countries for the years 1992 to 2018. Using detailed export and employment data, we estimate employment pattern variations in manufacturing industries with exports from other developing countries as instruments for export exposure. We find that the increase in trade exposure to China in the world economy has caused extensive job gains in manufacturing industries in developing countries that were exporters. On average, our estimations show that this trade exposure created approximately 1.5 million additional jobs from 1992 to 2018, which made an important contribution to manufacturing industries in developing countries. Our empirical analysis also shows that trade had stabilizing effects on employment in the countries in our sample generally.     

Understanding Cross-Country Differences in Exporter Premia: Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries

We use comparable micro level panel data for 14 countries and a set of identically specified empirical models to investigate the relationship between exports and productivity. Our overall results are in line with the big picture that is by now familiar from the literature: exporters are more productive than non-exporters when observed and unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for, and these exporter productivity premia tend to increase with the share of exports in total sales; there is evidence in favour of self-selection of more productive firms into export markets, but nearly no evidence in favour of the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. We document that the exporter premia differ considerably across countries in identically specified empirical models. In a meta-analysis of our results we find, consistent with theoretical predictions, that productivity premia are larger in countries with lower export participation rates, with more restrictive trade policies, lower per capita GDP, less effective government and worse regulatory quality, and in countries exporting to relatively more distant markets. JEL no.  F14, D21     

Are China's Exports Crowding Out or Being Crowded Out? Evidence from Japan's Imports

Previous studies have investigated whether Chinese exports have crowded out those from other countries. However, what has yet to be considered is the evidence based on different quality varieties. Using the most detailed Harmonized System 9‐digit product‐level data, the present paper provides evidence of crowding‐out and crowded‐out effects across different product quality segments and across manufacturing sectors by quality segments. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the crowding‐out effects of Chinese exports have been greatest at the lower end of the quality spectrum but less significant at the higher quality spectrum. Moreover, since 2007, China's own exports of lower quality manufactured goods have been increasingly crowded out. The key policy implication is that China's export path is in line with that taken by other Asian economies in previous decades; the crowded‐out effect could achieve win–win outcomes for countries involved; and lower income countries would do well to be open to receive those relocated low value‐added industries from China. However, the relocation policy in China is best implemented gradually as climbing up the product quality ladder takes time.     

Multinational Enterprises,Technology Diffusion,and Host Country Absorptive Capacity: A Note

Abstract

Previous empirical studies show mixed support for the hypothesis that the impact of technology diffusion from multinational enterprises (MNEs) on host country productivity growth depends on host country absorptive capacity. One explanation is that the results of these empirical studies are sensitive to the measures of absorptive capacity used. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by investigating average years of schooling and total factor productivity gap as measures of host country absorptive capacity in 38 developed and developing countries. Panel data regression equations are estimated using a cross-sectionally heteroskedastic and timewise autoregressive (CHTA) model. The paper has two main results. The first result does not support the hypothesis that the technology diffusion from MNEs has a positive impact on the productivity growth in developing countries. The second result is that the total factor productivity gap is more appropriate than average years of schooling to measure host country absorptive capacity. This may suggest that the results of previous studies that used average years of schooling should be interpreted with caution.     

Dynamic products in world exports

The values of three product categories have grown most rapidly in world exports during the period 1980–2000: electrical and electronic goods (including parts and components for such goods), goods from other technology-intensive industries, and labour-intensive products, particularly clothing. A strong geographical concentration at both regional and country levels is discernable regarding the origin of these products from developing countries. There appears to be a sustained movement in world exports towards the growing significance of a limited number of products and it would seem that there has been a rapid and sustained technological upgrading in the export composition of developing countries. However, since the involvement of developing countries is usually limited to the labour-intensive stages in the production process of technology-intensive goods in the context of international production sharing, simple measures of growth in gross export values are poor guides for an assessment of the nature of participation of developing countries in world trade.     

Market potential,firm exports and profit: Which market do the Chinese firms profit from?

This paper examines the effects of market potential on Chinese firms' exports and profit by using data from the Chinese industrial enterprise database and The China City Statistical Yearbooks during 1998–2007. We find that international market potential has positive effects on firm exports, but negative effects on firm profit, while domestic market potential has opposite impacts. This finding suggests that Chinese firms' profit mainly stems from the domestic market. Moreover, the adverse impact of international market potential on firm profit diminishes with the increase of firm productivity, and some firms with higher productivity may benefit from the expansion of foreign markets.     

Productivity Gains from Offshore Outsourcing: Evidence from the Chinese Manufacturing Industry

Using the Cobb–Douglas production function and vertical specialization share, the present paper measures the productivity spillover effects of offshore outsourcing in the Chinese manufacturing industry. We examine different production factors and the degree of openness by dividing the Chinese manufacturing industry into five major categories: capital‐intensive business, technological‐intensive business, labor‐intensive business, open business and non‐open business. The results show that offshore outsourcing is positively associated with productivity in the Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole, but less so in labor‐intensive industries and more in capital‐intensive industries. Moreover, the positive impact of outsourcing on productivity is slightly higher in open industries than in non‐open industries. These results shed light on the differential spillover effects of offshore outsourcing on productivity. Our findings suggest that outsourcing structure is important to China's long‐run competitive advantage. China's policy‐makers should encourage further offshore capital‐intensive and technology‐intensive activities and focus more on outward‐oriented offshore businesses.     

BT-to-VAT reform and firm productivity: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in China

China recently initiated a major tax reform to convert business tax to value-added tax (BT-to-VAT reform), which opened up the tax deduction chain between industries. We used difference-in-differences model and an administrative firm-level dataset from 2011 to 2017 to explore the effect of BT-to-VAT reform on productivity. We found that in contrast to control firms, this reform increased the productivity of the treated firms by 14.6% on average. The positive effects tended to be strengthened in private, large-scale, and capital-intensive firms, as well as in firms with tight financing constraints. Moreover, these positive results of the BT-to-VAT reform appeared to be driven by its positive effect on fixed asset investment, R&D expenditure, and specialization. These findings demonstrate the transformation of tax system has multiple economic effects in developing countries.     

Bilateral Relations and Exports: Evidence from Google Big Data

This paper investigates the effect of bilateral relations on exports using data from Google Global Data. It finds that bilateral relations significantly reduced the negative effect of cultural distance on exports, indicating that they can promote exports by reducing trade costs. The paper finds that higher average Goldstein scores of events correlated with more exports and that bilateral relations had a larger effect on trust-intensive products, indicating that positive relations built trust and decreased the emotional distance between trading partners. The results also show that bilateral relations promoted exports at both the intensive and extensive margins but with a greater effect on the latter. Finally, bilateral relations had a greater positive effect on developing countries than on developed ones. The results were qualitatively unchanged when endogeneity issues and robustness concerns were considered.     

National and international spillovers from R&D: Comparing a neoclassical and an endogenous growth approach

National and International Spillovers from R&;D: Comparing a Neoclassical and an Endogenous Growth Approach.— Two models where productivity growth is caused by spillovers from R&;D are analyzed using a sample of nine manufacturing industries in six large OECD countries between 1979 and 1991. The first model is based on traditional productivity analysis, the second model on the endogenous growth theory. The empirical results indicate stronger support for the latter. The results suggest that spillovers from R&;D exist within industries, both nationally and internationally, confined to industries that are relatively R&;D-intensive. There is, however, little evidence of spillovers between industries. Finally, FDIs seem to facilitate the diffusion of R&;D results, but the authors do not find any effect on growth from R&;D embodied in intermediate products. JEL no. O32, O40     

Export Promotion Policies and the Crowding‐out Effect in Developing Countries*

Critics of export promotion policies have pointed out a fallacy of composition, where what is viable for a small country acting in isolation might not be viable when pursued by a group of countries simultaneously. This paper investigates the crowding‐out effect of the fallacy of composition; that is, whether developing countries that specialize in exports of manufactured products compete and crowd out one another's exports. The results of fixed‐effects panel estimation suggest that developing countries are not crowding out one another's exports. Instead, they are crowding out Western European countries’ exports of manufactured products.