金融自由化、金融脆弱性与金融监管

金融自由化是我国金融改革发展的主要特征。金融自由化导致金融系统趋向于脆弱,传统金融监管手段明显不足。文章在分析我国金融自由化趋势基础上,探讨金融自由化导致的金融脆弱性,提出我国金融监管改革与发展的路径选择。     

如何应对国际金融服务贸易自由化

近年来,在世界经济逐步走向一体化的大趋势下,金融服务贸易也不断出现自由化的发展势头,一些国家和地区纷纷开放金融服务领域,实行金融自由化和资本流入流出的自由化。1997年12月12日,世贸组织在日内瓦宣布达成全球金融服务协议,该协议进一步规范了金融市场准入和最惠国待遇问题,大大加快了世界金融服务贸易自由化进程。中国加入WTO,必须逐步开放服务贸易市场,因而,选择合适的开放度,保证金融服务贸易自由化下的国内金融稳定,实行合理的金融服务贸易自由化下中国金融业整体发展战略就显得尤为重要。     

国外金融自由化与经济增长关系的理论研究综述

麦金农等人于20世纪70年代开创了金融发展理论,主张在发展中国家推行金融自由化政策,并且,很多发展中国家都相继进行了金融自由化改革。但发展中国家的经济实践与理论预期之间存在巨大反差,经济学家不得不对金融自由化政策进行深刻反思,对金融自由化的争论焦点也发生了改变。20世纪90年代初,争论的焦点是“何时进行金融自由化”,到20世纪90年代末,争论的焦点演变为“是否应该进行金融自由化”。     

金融自由化可以降低消费波动吗——来自中国的证据

扩大内需和金融自由化是当前中国经济活动中两项重要的战略取向。金融自由化与居民消费存在什么联系?利用省际面板数据就中国金融自由化对于居民消费波动的影响及其机制进行研究,结论表明:(1)金融自由化会存在阈值效应;(2)金融自由化平抑居民消费波动的能力依赖于各省份的金融发展水平,金融发展水平越高的省份,金融自由化对于居民消费波动的平抑能力越强;(3)金融自由化仅能缓解名义冲击对于消费波动的影响,但由于中国金融自由化进程中资本账户开放的不对称,使其对于实际冲击并没有抵御能力。由此,可以认为,金融自由化应该是一个需要持续推进、不断深化和均衡发展的进程,只有达到一定水平并实现平衡发展,才能带来高质量的消费增长。     

国外金融自由化与经济增长关系的理论研究综述

麦金农等人于20世纪70年代开创了金融发展理论,主张在发展中国家推行金融自由化政策,并且,很多发展中国家都相继进行了金融自由化改革。但发展中国家的经济实践与理论预期之间存在巨大反差,经济学家不得不对金融自由化政策进行深刻反思,对金融自由化的争论焦点也发生了改变。20     

金融自由化及其相关理论综述

针对发展中国家金融体系出现扭曲、被削弱、萎缩,以及经济发展受到严重制约等现象,理论界提出了金融自由化理论.其主要包括:麦金农和肖的金融深化理论、麦金农和肖的金融深化理论的扩展、反对与完善M-S的理论、有关金融脆弱性的现代理论研究、金融危机理论与模型、金融自由化排序理论等.这些理论从内因和外因、宏观和微观多角度地对金融自由化进行了研究.但对于实践来说,理解金融自由化的关键就是:为什么频发的金融危机主要出现在进行金融自由化改革的发展中国家和转型经济国家.而从整个金融自由化发展的进程中多角度地来理解金融自由化,而不是单纯地用任何单一的方法来研究这一复杂的课题,应当是金融自由化理论的发展方向.     

开放经济的稳定性和经济自由化的次序

本文从金融领域和实体经济两个领域分析 ,在不同的制度安排下 ,外部冲击将对一国经济的稳定性产生怎样的影响以及这些影响的传导机制。主要结论有二 :第一 ,与政府干预的经济相比 ,全面自由化的经济具有最强的稳定性 ;第二 ,从保持经济体制转换过程中的稳定性角度看 ,自由化的最优先后次序应当是 :实体经济自由化、国内金融自由化、实行浮动汇率制和资本项目开放。     

金融深化理论与我国金融业的良性发展

金融深化理论自20世纪70年代被提出以来,发展中国家出现了一次金融自由化的高潮,与此同时,金融危机也此起彼伏.在重新认识和探讨金融自由化过程中,人们开始意识到了自由化带来的各种金融风险,形成了金融脆弱性等一系列理论.根据这些理论,我们认识到一国不仅要了解"金融自由化",更要了解进行自由化的实施所应具备的条件和实施的步骤.本文主要对金融深化理论体系及对发展中国家经济良性发展的意义进行了阐述.     

金融自由化的异质影响研究——基于TFP增长率的视角

已有研究对金融自由化内涵的界定十分混乱,不同研究使用不同维度金融自由化作为总体金融自由化的代理变量,这种混淆不同层次、不同内涵金融自由化的做法,造成有关金融自由化与经济效率或经济增长研究结论的巨大争议。本文明确区分了总体和七个维度金融自由化,实证发现总体金融自由化对全要素生产率(TFP)增长率具有显著的正向影响,但不同维度的金融自由化对TFP增长率的影响具有异质性。利率市场化和银行业私有化对TFP增长率具有显著的负向影响,资本账户开放和证券市场自由化对TFP增长率具有显著的正向影响,降低信贷控制和法定准备金要求、放松银行业进入壁垒和加强银行业监管对TFP增长率不具有显著影响。研究表明,忽视不同维度金融自由化的异质影响、或以单一维度金融自由化代理总体金融自由化,都难以准确、全面揭示金融自由化对经济效率和经济增长的影响,这也是现有文献研究结论大相径庭的重要原因。     

凯恩斯主义的金融发展理论及其实证

凯恩斯主义的金融发展理论更强调金融机构的信用创造与信用扩张能力，并据此提出金融发展可能对实际经济造成负的影响。本在对凯恩斯主义金融金融发展理论作简要考察的基础上，对20世纪70年代末以来金融领域自由化、全球化与创新的潮流之下的金融发展进行分析，探讨近20年来的金融发展对证券市场泡沫起作用的渠道与机制，为凯恩斯主义金融发展理论做一粗浅实证。     

金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据

文章建立一个由金融发展程度、资本账户开放与金融不稳定指标组成的向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用中国1982~2005年的年度数据对这些变量的长期协整关系和短期的调整动力学进行相关的时间序列分析。模型的估计结果显示,对于中国来说,金融发展程度、资本账户开放和金融不稳定之间存在着长期的协整关系,但三者之间的影响程度和方向各不相同。所有结果均显示,无论从短期和长期看,金融发展程度对一国的金融稳定具有显著影响,对资本账户开放的进程也具有重要的影响。     

Does the impact of financial liberalization on income inequality depend on financial development? Some new evidence

Instead of empirically finding that higher levels of financial development reduce the positive impact of financial liberalization on inequality, as others do, we come up with the opposite result: financial development strengthens the inequality-raising impact of financial liberalization. We suggest that by, e.g., allowing financial liberalization to lead to more volatility and uncertainty, the model of Bumann and Lensink (2016 “Capital Account Liberalization and Income Inequality.“ Journal of International Money and Finance 61: 143–162.) can be extended as such that also an amplifying instead of reducing effect of financial depth on the impact of financial liberalization on income inequality can be theoretically justified.     

WTO框架下中国金融市场开放的最优安排

加入WTO标志着中国的金融改革要向自由化方向迈进.本文从金融自由化与金融全球化的推进逻辑出发,分析了当中国引入WTO变量后,如何通过修正金融改革路径实现金融市场开放的最优选择.其中引言部分综述了金融自由化理论的发展及中国面临的挑战;第二部分提出引入WTO变量后中国金融改革路径的修正;第三部分实证性地研究了中国推进金融市场开放的最优顺序安排;最后是结论及进一步改革建议.     

Financial development,financial liberalization and social capital

The relationship between financial liberalization policies and financial development is controversial. The impact of these policies differs greatly across countries. In the literature, the quality of formal institutions has been identified as an important source of this heterogeneity, as countries with a weak institutional environment generally fail to benefit from financial liberalization. Using panel data covering 82 countries for the period 1973–2008, we find evidence that social capital may substitute for formal institutions as a prerequisite for effective financial liberalization policies. In particular, we find that during the post Washington-consensus period countries with a high prevailing level of social capital can ensure that financial liberalization positively influences financial development, despite the poor quality of their formal institutions.     

美国次贷危机给中国金融监管带来的启示

美国次贷危机充分暴露出华尔街自上而下对利润追逐的贪婪以及对风险控制的漠视,美国金融监管机构在此次危机中扮演着不甚光彩的角色,其监管缺失成为人们口诛笔伐的对象。美国次贷危机告诉我们,在金融自由化、国际化、网络化的时代,现代银行业发展变化给金融监管带来了严峻的挑战,金融监管是构建金融安全网必不可少的一个环节。中国金融监管机构应以美国次贷危机作为前车之鉴,警钟长鸣,从中汲取经验和教训,避免重蹈覆辙。     

Directed credit,financial development and financial structure: theory and evidence

The recent initiative of the RBI in reviving the policy of directed credit allocation in a period dominated by the neoliberal philosophy necessitates reconsideration of the role of policy-directed credit allocation process on financial development and financial structure of firms. Introducing certain policy parameters, the paper attempts to model how financial development-financial structure interlinkage is influenced by the liberalization policies of the government. The theoretical construct is empirically verified using both aggregated and disaggregated (firm-level) data comprising a panel of 932 Indian manufacturing firms. Findings reveal that following the liberalization measures in the early 1990s, there has been a structural shift in the debt–equity ratio of firms, with equity market activities assuming prominence over time. As regards financial development, it has been observed that the withdrawal of DFIs specialized in term-lending activities in the early 2000s led to a significant increase in the degree of financing constraints faced by the manufacturing firms. This contradicts the basic premise of financial liberalization. The paper argues that under certain conditions, government intervention in the form of directed credit programmes would not only act as an effective instrument in ushering financial development, but also provide important guidelines in ensuring sustainability of institutions.     

Financial Innovation,Deposit Deregulation,and the US M1-GNP Link

This paper considers the effect of financial liberalization on aggregate consumption, with a special focus on Taiwan, which has sustained a high savings rate and a rapid rate of economic growth under financial dualism, but has undertaken financial liberalization since the 1980s, leading to an expansion of the formal financial sector. The paper finds that, because of an active informal financial sector, consumers in Taiwan are less credit constrained than in other developing countries. However, the expansion of the formal financial sector has contributed to some relaxation of consumer credit constraints and thereby changes in the income and interest elasticities of consumption. It also has brought about a higher consumption growth rate, offsetting at least partially the positive growth effect of financial liberalization, which helps improve the efficiency in finanacial intermediation.     

Exploring the nexus between financial openness and informational efficiency – does the quality of institution matter?

This article examines the empirical link between financial openness and informational efficiency of stock markets in 27 emerging markets. Improving on earlier papers, this study has used World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) as the proxy of institutional development in dynamic panel data models estimated by generalized method of moments (GMM). Our results show, first, financial liberalization by itself has no impact on enhancing efficiency of stock market. Second, for countries with high level of institutional development, the interaction of trade openness and financial openness become significant. Third, for the same group of countries, interaction effect of financial liberalization and institutional development leads to more efficiency in stock market. Hence, our finding demonstrates the utmost importance of institutional development and its role on liberalization. Our results conclude that institutional development and trade openness are pre-requisites for a country to benefit from financial openness. Our study further provides empirical evidence to theoretical model proposed by Basu and Morey (2005) that governance is the missing link between stock market efficiency and financial liberalization. Our findings suggest that policy makers in developing economies should enhance the quality of their institution in order to optimize the benefits of financial liberalization.     

Financial development, liberalization and technological deepening

This paper focuses on examining the effects of financial development and liberalization on knowledge accumulation. The results consistently show that while financial development facilitates the accumulation of new ideas, the implementation of financial reform policies is negatively associated with it. The undesirable effects of financial liberalization are found to operate through the triggering of crises and volatility in the financial system. There is also evidence supporting the hypothesis that financial liberalization reallocates talent from the innovative sector to the financial system, thus retarding technological deepening. Moreover, the findings also suggest that increased R&D activity and the presence of a stronger intellectual property rights protection framework tend to have beneficial effects on knowledge accumulation.     

The effect of financial liberalization on banking sector stability

Several studies indicate that financial liberalization increases likelihood of a financial crisis without distinguishing between a normal period, unstable period preceding the onset of banking panics and crisis/post period. We explain in this paper the relationship between financial liberalization and banking sector vulnerability. Then, we argue that banking sector turmoil is most likely to occur after an intermediate degree of liberalization. Using a recently updated dataset for financial reforms, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between liberalization and the likelihood of banking crisis for a sample of 49 countries between 1980 and 2010. We used a multinomial logit model in order to take into account what is called the ‘post crisis bias’. We ask whether the relationship remains when institutional characteristics of countries and dynamic effects of liberalization are considered. The empirical results indicate that the relationship between liberalization and banking sector stability depends strongly on the strength of capital regulation and supervision. With very weak regulation and supervision, the probability of banking crises is increasing with liberalization but this relationship is reversed as regulation and supervision become significant. The most important type of liberalization in relation to banking crises seems to be operational. A policy implication is that positive growth effects of liberalization can be achieved without increasing the risk of a banking fragility if appropriate institutions are developed.