基于古诺模型下的利率市场化与商业银行利差关系分析

本文紧紧立足于利率市场化和中国银行业传统业务经营的现实背景,我们运用理论分析和古诺模型分析方法得出两个主要结论:当其他条件保持不变时,第一,存款利率的上升会导致贷款的利率上升.第二,当存贷款利率同步上升时,如果法定存款准备金率小于某个“阈值”,存款利率的上升速度将快于贷款利率的上升速度,这时,存贷利差会变小,银行的利润也会变小;但如果法定存款准备金率大于某个“阈值”,当存贷款利率同步上升时,贷款利率上升速度将快于存款利率的上升速度,这时,存贷利差有变大趋势,但由于法定存款准备金率过高,银行的利润空间也会受到挤压.     

对我国房地产价格调控的若干建议

1.适度控制对房地产行业贷款规模。鉴于城市贷款规模对房地产均价的显著影响,对贷款规模的适度控制,可以有效地调控房地产价格。城市对房地产行业贷款主要来源于金融机构发放的贷款,主要包括政策性银行和商业性银行的贷款。金融机构调控贷款规模的主要工具有利率、贴现率和存款准备金率。     

利率冲击与房地产价格波动的理论与实证分析:1998-2006

在考虑通货膨胀的条件下,利用中国1998-2006年的一年期存款实际利率、一年期商业贷款实际利率、存款准备金实际利率、中央银行实际贷款利率、实际再贴现率与房屋销售价格指数、土地交易价格指数的季度数据建立误差纠正模型,使用协整检验、长短期格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析方法,对中国房地产价格和各种实际存贷款利率的关系进行实证检验。得出结论,短期而言,中央银行实际贷款利率、存款准备金实际利率、一年期存款实际利率和一年期商业贷款实际利率对房价存在负向影响,一年期商业贷款实际利率对地价存在负向影响;长期而言,一年期存款实际利率对房价存在负向影响,而一年期商业贷款实际利率对房价存在正向影响。在现阶段选择适当的利率手段调控房地产市场,有利于保持中国房地产价格的稳定。     

我国大型金融机构法定存款准备金率对银行同业拆借利率的影响

本文以法定存款准备金率和同业拆借利率为核心,引入回归模型,分析二者之间的关系.所有分析均基于2010年至2016年的大型金融机构法定存款准备金率(下文简称为法定存款准备金率)和同业拆借年利率(CHIBOR)两个时间序列,通过模型建立和显著性检验得出结论.结果表明,二者存在显著正相关关系,并以此为基础对未来同业拆借利率的走势进行预测.同时,提出加强CHIBOR基准利率的地位等政策建议.     

基于国际原油市场中不同交易者行为的原油价格动态分析

原油的期货价格是市场对未来现货市场价格的预估值,文章根据期货市场出清时,期货合约的总需求为零的条件建立包含套利、套期保值和期货投机交易行为的原油期货价格模型。采用FMOLS估计和Phillips-Ouliaris残差单位根检验法考察原油期货市场上的三类主体,套利者、套期保值者和期货投机者的市场交易行为与NYMEX的不同到期月份的WTI原油期货合约价格的动态关系。结果表明,原油期货市场已成为期货投机者的乐土,而对承担套期保值者转嫁风险的作用有限,原油期货投机对期货价格的决定作用远大于套利交易和套期保值交易,未来现货价格预期对期货价格的影响也非常小。     

紧缩银根出手偏慢通胀形势总体可控

如果从2010年初的调整存款准备金率算起,本轮货币紧缩已经进行了一年多了。在此期间调升存款准备金率12次,每次0．5％,大型金融机构存款准备金率从15．5％调到了21．5％;加息5次,每次0．25％,一年期存款利率从2．25％升至3．5％,一年期贷款利率则从5．31％升至6．56％。因为货币政策具有一定的时滞,所以市场对货币政策的反弹最近才逐渐变得强烈起来。     

对中小企业贷款难问题的博弈分析

去年以来,中国人民银行连续上调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率,并多次提高银行存款利率.在银行信贷收紧的情况下,许多中小企业面临资金链断裂的压力,“贷款难”问题愈加凸显.本文将对中小企业的贷款问题进行完全信息静态博弈分析,并提出解决该问题的一些建议     

对中小企业贷款难问题的博弈分析

去年以来，中国人民银行连续上调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率，并多次提高银行存款利率。在银行信贷收紧的情况下，许多中小企业面临资金链断裂的压力,“贷款难”问题愈加凸显。本文将对中小企业的贷款问题进行完全信息静态博弈分析，并提出解决该问题的一些建议。     

我国货币政策对股票价格影响的实证分析

2015年10月24日,央行下调人民币贷款存款基准利率和存款准备金率,同时对商业银行和农村合作金融机构等不再设置存款利率浮动上限,标志着将近20年的利率市场化改革基本完成。在2015年股市大波动的背景下,央行年内已经进行了5次降准降息,引起了人们对货币政策与股价关系的讨论与关注。为此,选取2001年到2015年2月的月度数据,运用VAR模型、脉冲响应图、方差分解来分析货币政策对于股价的影响,并结合实证结果为投资者提供一些货币政策背景下的相关建议。     

限购背景下存准率与房价的关系研究

2010年以来,我国主要的大中城市纷纷出台了商品房的限购政策,同期法定存款准备金率也多次调整.在限购政策背景下,本文运用广义矩(GMM)方法,将限购政策作为逻辑变量加入到估计模型中,对限购背景下的存款准备金率调整与商品房价格的关系进行了定量分析.结果表明,限购政策对于抑制房价过快上涨具有显著意义,同时,政府上调存款准备金率在滞后2期和3期时对于抑制商品房价格过快上涨也具有一定的积极作用,但商品房价格不会因存款准备金率的上调而出现急速下跌,而是在存款准备金率持续上调的过程中呈现出先上涨后下跌,再上涨、再下跌的交替变化特征.研究同时发现,限购政策和存款准备金率调整对于我国东部地区城市影响显著,而对于中西部城市影响则不显著.基于此,本文提出了运用存款准备金率手段在抑制商品房价格过快上涨过程中的对策建议.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。     

生物群落结构原型的仿生学模拟

模拟生命系统管理规律的科学即管理仿生学,是知识时代仿生学研究的新领域与前沿.基于模拟生物群落结构规律的研究目的,采用仿生学模拟的研究方法,以生物群落结构为原型,建立了仿生群落结构模型.结论为:垂直结构、水平结构、时间结构与交错区结构是支持生物群落生命活动的结构规律,以该规律为原型,推理建立了仿生分层结构、仿生优化结构、仿生动态结构与仿生相邻结构,四种仿生结构分别侧重于管理资源的分层管理、局部优化管理、动态过程管理、相邻关系管理,该模型为建立类似生物群落的人造管理系统即仿生群落管理系统提供了仿生结构模型.可以预测,该模型具有广泛的应用价值,能够推动管理仿生学的发展.