艺术品的金融属性：投资收益与资产配置*

本文基于2000—2014年中国艺术品拍卖市场近现代国画的微观数据,在资产配置中引入市场交易机制中的佣金变量,加入艺术品市场规模约束,采用重复交易法实证计量嵌入艺术品市场的投资收益特征并量化其资产配置效应,以测度其市场功能。优质的艺术精品具备金融资产风险和收益的基本特征,本文对艺术品资产与资本资产定价模型的适应性进行讨论。研究表明：在样本期内,剔除通胀和佣金成本因素后收益率更加贴近现实,中国艺术品投资的实际收益率水平为1308%,表现出高于欧美市场的投资溢价;艺术品投资与传统的股票、债券等金融资产之间表现出相对独立性,并能有效改善投资者资产组合的风险边界,可以成为资产配置优化和多样化的重要选择。中国艺术品市场的长期稳健发展将为投资者提供更多的资产优化产品和工具。     

STOCK FLOW CONSISTENT INCOME FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL COMPANIES

Although industrial and commercial companies (ICCs) are primarily concerned with the production of goods and services which yield a trading profit there is evidence that they have become increasingly concerned with their portfolios of tangible and financial assets and liabilities. As relative prices, interest rates and exchange rates alter, there are implied changes to the realisable net worth of ICCs. That these changes can be substantial is particularly illustrated by reference to the U.K. experience between 1980 and 1982 and in 1985. However, conventional transactions based income measures are purposely not designed to capture these changes. Measuring income on a stock-flow consistent basis provides a complementary view of the performance of ICCs which is intended to capture these portfolio effects.     

Taxation and household portfolio composition: US evidence from the 1980s and 1990s

This paper explores the relationship between household marginal income tax rates, the set of financial assets that households own, and the portfolio shares accounted for by each of these assets. It analyzes data from the 1983, 1989, 1992, 1995, and 1998 Surveys of Consumer Finances and develops a new algorithm for imputing federal marginal tax rates to households in these surveys. The empirical findings suggest that marginal tax rates have important effects on asset allocation decisions. The probability that a household owns tax-advantaged assets, such as tax-exempt bonds or assets held in tax-deferred accounts, is positively related to its tax rate on ordinary income. In addition, the portfolio share invested in corporate stock, which is taxed less heavily than interest bearing assets, is increasing in the household’s ordinary income tax rate. Holdings of heavily taxed assets, such as interest-bearing accounts, decline as a share of wealth as a household’s marginal tax rate increases.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Australia Following the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement

A model of inward foreign direct investment for Australia is estimated. Foreign direct investment is found to be positively related to economic and productivity growth and negatively related to foreign portfolio investment, trade openness, the exchange rate and the foreign real interest rate. Foreign direct investment is found to be a substitute for both portfolio investment and trade in goods and services. The exchange rate and the US bond rate affect foreign direct investment through the relative attractiveness of domestic assets. Actual foreign direct investment outperforms a model‐derived forecast in recent years, consistent with the liberalisation of foreign investment screening rules following the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement.     

The London Business School econometric model of the UK

This paper describes the London Business School econometric model — the first fully computerized model of the UK — which has been used for regular public forecasting since 1966. The model, estimated on quarterly data, is organized around the income expenditure accounts with a fully integrated flow of funds sector which ensures consistency between portfolio decisions and income, savings and investment decisions. Aggregate demand is built up from its individual components so that demand influences are important for the short- and medium-term behaviour of the model. But there are important supply-side effects which work through the real exchange rate and real wages. Monetary conditions have a powerfull effect on the model through the exchange rate, personal sector wealth and interest rates. Wages and employment are determined in a labour market in which employment decisions depend on the level of demand and real wages while real wages depend on the level of unemployment, real benefits and direct and indirect taxes as well as underlying trends in productivity. Asset prices move in any period to clear both the spot and the future market in assets so that current asset prices in the equity, gilt-edged and foreign exchange markets reflect all current information about the expected state of the economy. In contrast, goods prices adjust sluggishly. The combination of continuously clearing asset markets and sluggish wages and prices gives the model many of the theoretical characteristics associated with the open-economy models of Dornbusch and Buiter and Miller.     

A possibilistic portfolio adjusting model with new added assets

In order to fit changes in financial markets, portfolio managers often need to revise an existing portfolio. This article analyzes the portfolio adjusting problem with new added assets. We propose a possibilistic portfolio adjusting model with transaction costs and bounded constraints on holdings of assets, which can be transformed into a linear programming problem. Both the lower bounds on holdings and the total investment constraints influence the optimal portfolio adjusting strategies. Furthermore, a numerical example of a portfolio adjusting problem is given to illustrate our proposed effective approaches. The numerical results show the case that investors do not need to invest total capital and to hold all assets in the portfolio for some required return levels.     

INFLATION,INFLATION ACCOUNTING AND ITS EFFECT,CANADIAN MANUFACTURING, 1966–82*

This paper provides estimates of the effects of inflation in Canada on the reported rate of return in manufacturing from 1966 to 1982. It provides estimates for several different concepts of rate of return (both for all assets, whether financed by equity or debt, and for the narrower equity to the owners) and for both a narrow and wide range of financial assets. Comparisons are made with similar studies for the United Kingdom. Such studies show that reported profits are overstated and total assets are undervalued during and after periods of inflation with traditional accounting concepts relative to an economic concept designed to maintain the firm as an ongoing entity. The paper also discusses a number of factors that have contributed to the marked drop in the rate of return in Canadian manufacturing when both income and assets are valued at replacement costs. Some of these factors are also present in the other industrialized countries, such as increased raw materials prices, and a slower increase in productivity. Other factors have been relatively more important in Canada than in other countries, such as the historically higher level of production costs in Canada than in the United States and Japan, the two most important countries in Canadian trade. This is important during a period of tariff reductions when international competition in manufactured products is widespread. Although corporate profits and the adjusted profits rates of return were depressed by the severity of the 1981-82 recession, some of the key factors depressing the rates of return are longer-term in nature. A continued persistence of these factors during the balance of the 1980s could contribute to restraint in business investment in manufacturing when total returns on a replacement cost basis are so much below the corporate long-term cost of capital. This paper applies the concepts of inflation accounting to total Canadian manufacturing for the period from 1966 to 1982. Measures of rates of return for individual years are provided, both on the basis of total assets and on the basis of the net assets attributable to the owners. There are four sections in the paper after an introduction. Section 2 is a brief conceptual statement and outlines the methods. Section 3 makes comparisons with similar studies for the United Kingdom and summarizes the results of this and other studies. Section 4 discusses the environmental factors for Canadian manufacturing that appear to contribute to the lower rates of return in recent years. Section 5 discusses the implications of the results for future business decisions.     

Rate‐of‐return Parity in Experimental Asset Markets*

This paper applies experimental methods to evaluate the completeness of arbitrage and rate‐of‐return parity in simultaneous asset markets in which the assets are denominated in different currencies. Two assets, which return uncertain, but known, dividends in each trading period, are traded over 20 periods, after which the asset has no value. Results indicate that risk‐neutral rate‐of‐return parity is a strong predictor of relative asset prices when assets have common expected dividends and the expected dividends have common variances. The predictive power of risk‐neutral rate‐of‐return parity is reduced as the assets become differentiated.     

An essay on the Life Cycle: Characterizing intertemporal behavior with uncertainty,human capital,taxes, durables,imperfect capital markets,and non-separable preferences

This paper formulates a general characterization of a household's portfolio choice and savings behavior in an environment with uncertain future interest rates, prices, wages, and factors influencing tastes. Savings may be invested in three types of assets: financial assets; human capital, which is non-tradable; and consumer durables, in which investment may be partially irreversible. Risk-return relations determine the optimal allocation of resources across assets at a point in time. The optimal intertemporal allocation of resources is determined by a restriction on the planned growth rate for the marginal utility of after-tax wealth, where growth rates depend on rates of time preference and measures of long-term riskless rates of interest. Given special assumptions, this marginal utility follows a martingale process as a consequence of optimizing behavior. Pricing formulae are developed for evaluating shifts in uncertain future income, wage, and price profiles. The relations characterizing portfolio and savings behavior presented here do not rely on particular distributional assumptions; they account for all forms of uncertainty including wage uncertainty induced by human capital investment; they allow for the non-marketability of assets; and the main results apply for very general functional form assumptions for preferences. In later sections, results are extended to incorporate income taxes and to account for a wide variety of imperfections in asset markets.     

Portfolio choice, attention allocation, and price comovement

This paper models the attention allocation of portfolio investors. Investors choose the composition of their information subject to an information flow constraint. Given their expected investment strategy in the next period, which is to hold a diversified portfolio, in equilibrium investors choose to observe one linear combination of asset payoffs as a private signal. When investors use this private signal to update information about two assets, changes in one asset affect both asset prices and may lead to asset price comovement. The model also has implications for the transmission of volatility shocks between two assets.     

Single Beta Models and Currency Futures Prices

The conditional capital asset pricing model is applied to foreign currency futures prices, covariance risk being measured relative to excess returns from a broadly diversified international portfolio of equities. Positive time-varying risk premia are found in all five currencies tested when the difference between the US and the average foreign interest rates is used as an instrumental variable for the expected excess return from the common stock portfolio.     

Anticipated Fiscal Policy Changes and Goods Market Adjustments

Abstract. Government policies are frequently known to be temporary and thus their termination is perfectly anticipated. These foreseen policy changes must be consistent with equilibrium in both the goods market and asset markets. Potential problems arise because prices often play dual roles, both as final goods prices, and as asset prices, as components of rates of return. We show how the economy accommodates an anticipated policy change depends upon its production flexibility and its structure. With flexible investment, an anticipated reduction in government expenditure is fully accommodated by capital accumulation. When investment involves adjustment costs, the marginal utility of wealth and the price of capital both jump so as to maintain equality among rates of return. Goods market clearance is maintained by a combination of increases in consumption and investment. Extensions of the model to include inventories and to a small open economy are also considered and contrasted.     

Portfolio Composition and Valuation Effects in Emerging Market Economies*

ABSTRACT

The increase in cross-border assets and liabilities of nations with globalization, implies small asset price and currency movements create large wealth changes. The national net external position is increasingly driven by valuation effects, which the current account does not capture. We analyze valuation effects for a group of seven emerging economies, namely Brazil, Colombia, India, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Peru and Turkey for the time period 2005:Q1-2015:Q4 by scrutinizing their external asset portfolio while controlling for country fundamentals. Both asset and liability categories of Direct Investment equity are found to positively impact valuation. Equity liabilities and debt assets of Portfolio Investment positively influence valuation. Debt liabilities of all kinds of investment negatively impact valuation. Countries with stronger currency tend to gain through valuation effects. An appreciated real effective exchange rate is associated with higher valuation gains. We also found non-linear effects of the composition of external debt portfolio by interacting external portfolio and country characteristics. The external portfolio selection of emerging economies (with more in Direct Investment equity liabilities and Portfolio Investment debt assets) in the period has shielded them from global volatility, and enabled valuation gains.     

虚拟经济视角下的汇率理论

在经济虚拟化程度很高的现代市场经济中,物质的生产与流通需要价值关系来体现,价值关系是协调整个市场经济系统能否正常运转的关键。汇率涉及两个或多个国家的价值系统的关系,是各国之间对虚拟资产的价格与实体经济实物的价格的比率,在货币与经济虚拟化之后,传统的汇率理论的解释力已显不足,通过对古典贸易理论的国际收支均衡、比较贸易优势理论、蒙代尔-弗莱明模型、资产组合平衡模型和货币分析法模型的简单评述,可看出其在经济虚拟化条件下,国际资本大规模流动造成了传统理论对解释现实的汇率运行及开放经济均衡的局限性。     

Arbitrage and equilibrium with portfolio constraints

We consider a multiperiod financial exchange economy with nominal assets and restricted participation, where each agent’s portfolio choice is restricted to a closed, convex set containing zero, as in Siconolfi (Non-linear Dynamics in Economics and Social Sciences, 1989). Using an approach that dates back to Cass (CARESS Working Paper, 1984; J Math Econ 42:384–405, 2006) in the unconstrained case, we seek to isolate arbitrage-free asset prices that are also quasi-equilibrium or equilibrium asset prices. In the presence of such portfolio restrictions, we need to confine our attention to aggregate arbitrage-free asset prices, i.e., for which there is no arbitrage in the space of marketed portfolios. Our main result states that such asset prices are quasi-equilibrium prices under standard assumptions and then deduces that they are equilibrium prices under a suitable condition on the accessibility of payoffs by agents, i.e., every payoff that is attainable in the aggregate can be marketed through some agent’s portfolio set. This latter result extends previous work by Martins-da-Rocha and Triki (Working Paper, University of Paris 1, 2005).     

Stochastic optimization applied to self-financing portfolio: does bequest matter?

The article studies stochastic optimization of an intertemporal consumption model to allocate financial assets between risky and risk-free assets. We use a stochastic optimization technique, in which utility is maximized subject to a self-financing portfolio constraint. The papers in literature have estimated the errors of Euler equations using data from financial markets. It has been shown that it is sufficient to test the first order Euler equation implied by the model. However, they all assume a constant consumption–wealth ratio that constrains the boundary conditions, hence influencing the coefficient of the risk premium. The main contribution of our article is that we drop the assumption of a constant consumption–wealth ratio. We have an analytical solution using a utility maximization model with a stochastic self-financing portfolio. We introduce a terminal condition of wealth with and without bequests. We also simulate the stochastic optimization with a self-financing portfolio, distinguishing risk neutral investors (γ-low) from high risk averse investors (γ-high). We show that the model with bequest has a higher level of wealth and a smoother decline of consumption over time than the model with no bequest at the end of the period. The model with no bequest has the same level of consumption and a sharp fall at the end of the period. Risk averse agents with high return assets have a higher amount of wealth than risk-neutral agents with lower return assets.     

Quantile spillovers and dependence between Bitcoin,equities and strategic commodities

This paper has two aims. We first examine the dynamic spillovers between Bitcoin and 12 developed equities, gold, and crude oil for different market conditions using a Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with daily spot prices. Our econometric approach enables us to capture the left and right tails as well as the shoulders of the return distribution corresponding to volatility spillovers under the bear, normal, and bull market states among these financial assets. We quantify and trace the dependence and directional predictability from Bitcoin to other assets using the sample cross-quantilogram. Our key findings offer convincing evidence of time variation in the level of volatility. Spillovers between Bitcoin and other financial assets intensify during extreme global market conditions. Secondly, results from the cross-quantilogram indicate strong dependence and positive directional predictability between Bitcoin and most equities and crude oil when market returns are bullish. However, during the bearish market period, there is negative dependence and predictability from Bitcoin to stocks in Finland, the Netherlands, the U.S.A, and the crude oil market only. This implies that Bitcoin can act as a hedge to stocks in Finland, the Netherlands, the U.S.A, and the crude oil market. However, insignificant dependence and directional predictability from Bitcoin to the remaining assets indicate that Bitcoin may act as a safe-haven to these assets during bearish markets. Our findings hold important implications for both international investors and portfolio managers who consider Bitcoin as part of their portfolio diversification and other investment strategies.     

A simultaneous analysis of exchange-rate passthrough into prices of imperfectly substitutable domestic and import goods

For the most part, the relationship between import and domestic prices, and their common linkages to currency movements, has been ignored, especially at the industry level. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of exchange rates on prices, analyzing a panel of 26 4-digit SIC industries over the 1978–1987 period. The results are consistent with the view that the indirect influence of exchange rates on domestic prices through import competition clearly dominates any direct impact, and that import prices are motivated largely by pricing-to-market. We find some evidence of a limiting effect of market concentration on passthrough into both domestic and import prices, while an increased reliance on imported inputs and increased substitutability between domestic and foreign goods each enhances the passthrough into domestic prices.     

Are there bubbles in Chinese RMB–dollar exchange rate? Evidence from generalized sup ADF tests

This article uses recently developed generalized sup ADF (GSADF) unit root tests into the analysis of nominal RMB–dollar exchange rates bubbles. Based on the results from the GSADF tests, we find strong evidence of explosive behaviour in the nominal exchange rate and investigate two bubbles there. The first bubble is during 2005–2006 which is determined neither by the relative prices of traded goods nor the relative price of nontraded goods. The second bubble busts in 2008 during subprime crisis period, and which is determined by the relative prices of traded goods but not the relative price of nontraded goods. There is no bubble before 2005 as the exchange rate is under fixed regime. As for this result, some expansionary monetary and fiscal policies are required in China since these are the most efficient and effective under a bubble burst scenario.     

The volatility of Australian traded goods’ prices

It is generally accepted that the Australian economy is continually subject to unanticipated shocks, particularly, unexpected swings in the prices of Australia's internationally- traded goods. This article empirically investigates the nature and extent of volatility in import and export prices faced by the Australian production sector. It estimates multivariate GARCH models of the stochastic processes generating the prices of imports and exports, and of important components of exports and imports. This article proposes an index of volatility, which is used to provide a summary measure of the extent of volatility in a multivariate context. The overall conclusion is that the price growth rates for Australia's traded goods exhibit considerable time variation in volatility and that these price growth rates are highly and positively correlated with each other.