Portfolio Implications of an Equity Rain in Australia*

In the next decade Australia will experience a substantial privatization program. This represents a switch away from public debt financing towards public equity financing. In this paper, estimates of the likely effect of the government's privatization program on corporate financing are provided. The main result of an increase in the supply of equities along with a commensurate reduction in the supply of government debt is to cause a significant increase in the relative cost of equity, thereby creating incentives for corporate financiers to emphasize reliance on debt financing relative to equity financing. The estimated effect on the weighted cost of finance in the economy, while positive, is small     

China's Growing Government Debt in a Computable Overlapping Generations Model

This paper simulates the effects of China's growing government debt in a computable equilibrium model of overlapping generations. Our model assumes that the government increases debt to finance its spending in the short run, and then increases taxes or cuts spending to keep the debt–GDP ratio constant. The spending‐driven government debt increases public capital and output in the short run, but decreases private investment, total capital stock, output, and net exports in the long run, and makes the future generations worse off. Among various means of debt control, a decrease in government spending seems to be the least harmful to private investment, capital stock, and output while an increase in capital taxation is most detrimental.     

Imperfect competition in financial markets and capital structure

We consider a model of corporate finance with imperfectly competitive financial intermediaries. Firms can finance projects either via debt or via equity. Because of asymmetric information about firms’ growth opportunities, equity financing involves a dilution cost. Nevertheless, equity emerges in equilibrium whenever financial intermediaries have sufficient market power. In the latter case, best firms issue debt while the less profitable firms are equity-financed. We also show that strategic interaction between oligopolistic intermediaries results in multiple equilibria. If one intermediary chooses to buy more debt, the price of debt decreases, so the best equity-issuing firms switch from equity to debt financing. This in turn decreases average quality of equity-financed pool, so other intermediaries also shift towards more debt.     

中国上市公司融资偏好问题的重新审视

基于对中国上市公司股本融资偏好问题的重新审视,我们发现:(1)如果将短期债务考虑在内并剔除首次公开募股的影响,股本融资偏好就不复存在;(2)在企业债务比率的调整过程中,融资缺口所起的作用超过了传统的企业特征因素,这意味着顺序偏好理论能在一定程度上解释企业的融资行为;(3)股票市场状况和政府管制政策会对企业外部融资的构成产生一定的影响。以上经验证据表明,中国上市公司的融资行为并不像原先所想的那样独特,主流的资本结构理论对企业的债务政策具有相当的解释能力。     

Market timing and corporate capital structure: a transatlantic comparison

This article provides comparative international evidence on the effect of market timing on corporate capital structures using panel data for US, UK and continental European firms. We document that the empirical regularity found for US firms, that historical market-to-book ratios and corporate leverage correlate negatively does not extend to UK and continental European firms. The latter tend to raise debt rather than equity when stock prices are high, thus sticking more closely to a pecking order in which debt is preferred over external equity.     

债转股企业股权回购博弈模型

本文通过构造stackberg完全信息动态博弈模型研究国有企业债转股中资产管理公司与企业之间的股权回购讨价还价行为。文中给出了刻画股权回购协议的博弈模型一般框架,并就三周期情形导出了一个子博弈精炼纳会均衡,该均衡确定了资产管理公司的最优股权回购时序量,也同时确定了转股企业的最优努力程度。最后,论文分析了模型的政策含义,讨论了资产管理公司和局中人类型变动对均衡解的影响。     

Taxes,risk taking,and financial stability

After the global financial crisis, the use of taxes to enhance financial stability received new attention. This paper analyzes the corrective role of taxes in banking and compares two instruments, namely, an allowance for corporate equity (ACE), which mitigates the debt bias in corporate taxation, and a Pigovian tax on bank debt (bank levy). We emphasize financial stability gains driven by lower bank asset risk and develop a principal-agent model, in which risk taking depends on the bank's capital structure and, by extension, on the tax treatment of debt and equity. We find that (i) the ACE unambiguously reduces risk taking, (ii) bank levies reduce risk taking if they are independent of bank performance but may be counterproductive otherwise, and (iii) taxes are especially effective if regulatory capital requirements are constrained to low levels.     

Debt markets and corporate debt structure in an emerging market: The South African example

This is a first attempt at gauging the effects of corporate public debt issuance on the debt structure, risk profile and valuation of firms in an emerging market. We find that financial services firms, along with government institutions, are important early supporters of an organized public debt market. Firms in this market use equity, public debt and private debt funds simultaneously as need be. Consistent with predictions of the corporate debt structure literature, public debt-issuing firms are larger, older, more profitable, and less informational opaque than non-public debt-issuing firms. Moreover, public debt-issuing firms experience significant reductions in both overall and systematic risks, and incur lower cost of capital following issuance than non-public debt issuers. These and other findings of the study suggest deepening national debt markets can be a fruitful financial market development exercise for emerging markets.     

股权激励、股权结构与公司业绩关系的实证研究——基于公司治理视角

运用我国上市公司2008年第3季度季报的数据,采用因子分析法及多元线性回归方法对其业绩与股权激励之间的关系、股权结构对二者关系的影响问题进行了研究。研究结果表明:公司业绩与股权激励比率呈明显正相关关系,但不同的股权激励类型与公司业绩之间的敏感程度不同。此外,第一大股东持股比例对公司业绩与股权激励之间的关系具有正向影响,而第一大股东的控制力对公司业绩与股权激励之间的关系具有负向影响。     

股权融资与企业治理机制研究

股权融资不仅是现代企业融资的重要手段之一,而且还是完善企业治理机制的重要途径。在我国,股权融资还有助于政企分开,但由于产权改革不到位,形成了独特的股权结构,导致了严重的内部人控制问题和治理结构运作低效;同时,也使股市成了单纯融资的机器而缺乏资源配置功能,所有这些都与我国股权结构异化有很大关系。本文通过对股权现状及其对治理结构影响的分析,提出了股权结构的优化以及治理机制完善构建的设想,以期探讨我国股份企业发展的思路。     

Monetary policy and fiscal limits with no-default

This paper discusses monetary and fiscal policy interactions that stabilize government debt. Two distortions prevail in the model economy: income taxes and liquidity constraints. Possible obstructions to fiscal policy include a ceiling on the equilibrium debt-to-GDP ratio, zero or negative elasticity of tax revenues, and a political intolerance of raising tax rates. At the fiscal limit two mechanisms restore solvency: fiscal inflation, which reduces the real value of nominal debt, and open market operations, which diminish the size of government debt held by the private sector. Three regimes achieve this goal. In all regimes monetary policy is passive. In all regimes a muted tax response to government debt is consistent with equilibrium. The propensity of a fiscal authority to smooth output is found to determine what is an acceptable response (in the form of tax rate changes) to the level of government debt, while monetary policy determines the timing and magnitude of fiscal inflation. Impulse responses show that the inflation and tax hikes needed to offset a permanent shock to transfers are lowest under nominal interest rate pegs. In this regime, most of the reduction in the real value of government debt comes from open market purchases.     

TAXES,REGULATIONS AND THE CORPORATE DEBT MARKET*

Outstanding credit market debt in the U.S. corporate sector increased dramatically over the second half of the 20th century. During this period, tax rates on dividend distributions and corporate income decreased. This article argues that the observed decline in dividend and corporate income tax rates generated an improvement in the collateral value of corporate assets and led to an increase in U.S. corporate debt. To analyze this conjecture, we build a general equilibrium model with enforcement constraints that induce endogenous limits on debt financing. We find that the model can account for the time‐series features of U.S. corporate debt data.     

External liabilities,domestic institutions and banking crises in developing economies

We investigate the impact of foreign equity and debt on the occurrence of banking crises in 61 lower income and middle income economies during the 1984 to 2010 period. We also focus on the effects of domestic institutions on banking crises and whether they mitigate or exacerbate the impact of the external liabilities. We find that FDI liabilities lower the probability of a crisis, while debt liabilities increase their incidence. However, institutions that lower financial or political risk partially offset the impact of debt liabilities, as does government stability. A decrease in investment risk directly reduces the incidence of banking crises.     

中国主权资产负债表及其风险评估(下)

2000——2010年,中国的国民资产负债表呈快速扩张之势。对外资产、基础设施以及房地产资产迅速积累,构成资产扩张的主导因素。这记载了出口导向发展战略之下中国工业化与城镇化加速发展的历史进程。在负债方,各级政府以及国有企业的负债以高于私人部门的增长率扩张。这凸显了政府主导经济活动的体制特征。对主权资产负债表的风险评估表明:(1)总体上,中国主权净值为正,因而,在相当一段时间内,发生主权债务危机的概率极低;(2)近期的风险点主要体现在房地产信贷与地方债务上,而中国的长期风险则更多集中在对外资产负债表、企业债务与社保欠账上。这些风险大都是或有负债风险,且与过去的发展方式密切相关;(3)主权债务动态的模拟进一步揭示出维持经济增长率与利率之差对于化解债务风险的重要性。因此,转变经济发展方式,保持经济可持续增长,是应对主权债务风险的根本途径。     

Why is the corporate tax rate lower than the personal tax rate?: The role of new firms

In many OECD countries, statutory corporate tax rates are lower than personal income tax rates. This tax rate difference is often particularly large for small firms. The present paper argues that a reduction of the corporate tax rate below the personal tax rate is an optimal tax policy if there are problems of asymmetric information between investors and firms in the capital market. The reduction of the corporate tax rate below the personal tax rate encourages equity financing and thus mitigates the excessive use of debt financing induced by asymmetric information. Our main theoretical result stands in marked contrast to the traditional view of corporate taxation and corporate finance theory, according to which there is a tax disadvantage to equity financing. More recent empirical evidence on this issue, however, is in line with our result.     

Japanʼs intangible capital and valuation of corporations in a neoclassical framework

This paper estimates the economic value in the 1980s and 1990s of corporate assets in Japan, including both tangible and intangible assets, based on the neoclassical framework of McGrattan and Prescott (2005). Our estimates use a new micro-data set that comprises the accounting statements of all listed, non-financial companies in Japan. We find that in 1980–1986, a period that immediately preceded Japan?s so-called “bubble economy”, our assessed value of corporate productive assets, net of the value of corporate debt, is approximately equal to the actual stock market value of Japanese corporate equity. The finding differs from previous results based on studies of aggregate data sets or based on studies of micro-data sets that neglected intangible capital. We also show that the Japanese ratio of the amount of intangible capital stock to the amount of tangible capital stock is comparable to the analogous ratios for the U.S. and U.K.     

Investment under Uncertainty, Debt and Taxes

It is common practice in financial derivative valuation to use a discount factor based on the riskless debt rate. But, to what extent is this discount factor appropriate for cash flows emerging in capital budgeting? To answer this question, we introduce a framework for real asset valuation that considers both personal and corporate taxation. We first discuss broad circumstances under which personal taxes do not affect valuation. We show that the appropriate discount rate for equity‐financed flows in a risk‐neutral setting is an equity rate that differs from the riskless debt rate by a tax wedge due to the presence of personal taxation. We extend this result to the valuation of the interest tax shield for exogenous debt policy with default risk. Interest tax shields, which accrue at a net rate corresponding to the difference between the corporate tax rate and a tax rate related to the personal tax rates, can have either positive or negative values. We also provide an illustrative real options application of our valuation approach to the case of an option to delay investment in a project, showing that the application of Black and Scholes formula may be incorrect in presence of personal taxes.     

Endogenous fertility,Ricardian equivalence,and debt management policy

This paper develops a model in which dynastic families optimally determine fertility. Government debt represents a tax on future generations and on childbearing; the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis does not hold. Debt is welfare reducing in that it distorts the fertility decision. An increase in government debt induces a decline in fertility and an increase in the steady state capital/labor ratio. If a government inherits an existing stock of debt, the 1st-best policy is to eliminate the debt immediately. In other situations the optimal debt management policy will not, in general, entail a total elimination of the debt.     

An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis of financial crowding out: A policy model and an application to Australia

This paper constructs a two-period, perfect foresight general equilibrium model that analyzes crowding out. Private investment is debt financed, while government deficits are financed by money and debt. The existence of equilibrium is demonstrated and the model is applied to Australia for 1981–1982, the last years for which Australia had a fixed exchange rate. A benchmark solution is derived and two counterfactual simulations are carried out. Small increases in real government spending are found not to lead to crowding out, while an increase in the debt financed portion of the government's budget deficit does lead to crowding out.     

Corporate Tax Incentives for R&D Investment in OECD Countries

Differentiating internal equity from debt finance, this study examines the generosity of R&D-specific tax incentives in OECD countries based on an NPV model. The corporate tax system generally favours debt finance and some previous findings on the possible preponderance of internal equity for financing R&D investment cannot be explained in relation to R&D-specific tax concessions. The OECD comparison demonstrates that R&D tax allowances adopted in the Czech Republic, Belgium, the UK, Denmark, Hungary, Austria and Australia generated the most substantial tax savings in 2006. Combined with such incentives, the after-tax NPV increases with the corporate tax rate, suggesting stronger investment stimulation through a tax-rate-increase-cum-base-broadening policy.