Intertemporal Choice,Saving and Investment,and Interest Rate: Contributions from a Neglected Hayekian Model

Hayek’s ‘Utility analysis and interest’ expounds a graphical model of intertemporal choice that has not received the attention it deserves. This model is important in that it can be used as a basic macroeconomic model and can therefore perform for the Austrian School the role that the Solow model plays for the standard neo-classical paradigm. This article provides an in-depth presentation of the Hayekian model, and then applies the model to key theoretical issues in macroeconomics; namely, the effects upon intertemporal equilibrium and upon the interest rate of a change in time preference, of the implementation of a technical development and of an increase in the supply of labor.     

THE IDENTIFICATION AND ECONOMIC CONTENT OF ORDERED CHOICE MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC THRESHOLDS*

This article extends the widely used ordered choice model by introducing stochastic thresholds and interval‐specific outcomes. The model can be interpreted as a generalization of the GAFT (MPH) framework for discrete duration data that jointly models durations and outcomes associated with different stopping times. We establish conditions for nonparametric identification. We interpret the ordered choice model as a special case of a general discrete choice model and as a special case of a dynamic discrete choice model.     

如何共舞?服务商业模式创新与技术创新对企业绩效的交互影响

基于权变视角与企业网络视角，剖析效率型、新颖型服务商业模式创新与利用式、探索式技术创新匹配对制造企业绩效的影响效应，并识别网络中心性的中介作用。研究发现：①新颖型服务商业模式创新与利用式技术创新组合匹配能够积极提升企业绩效，效率型、新颖型服务商业模式创新与探索式技术创新组合匹配对企业绩效具有抑制作用；②效率型、新颖型服务商业模式创新，利用式、探索式技术创新均能显著提升企业网络中心性和企业绩效；③网络中心性在服务商业模式创新对企业绩效的影响中发挥完全中介作用。     

Robustness and information processing

This paper considers a standard Kalman filtering problem subject to model uncertainty and information-processing constraints. It draws a connection between robust filtering [Hansen and Sargent, 2004. Robust control and economic model uncertainty. Monograph. In press] and Rational Inattention [Sims, 2003. Implications of rational inattention, Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (3), 665–690]. Considered separately, robustness and Rational Inattention are shown to be observationally equivalent, in the sense that a higher filter gain can either be interpreted as an increased preference for robustness, or an increased ability to process information. However, it is more interesting to consider them jointly. In this case, it is argued that an increased preference for robustness can be interpreted as an increased demand for information processing, while Sims' model of Rational Inattention can be interpreted as placing a constraint on the available supply. This suggests that the way agents actually implement robust decision rules is by allocating some of their scarce information processing capacity to problems that are characterized by high degrees of model uncertainty and risk-sensitivity.     

Interethnic relations,informal trading networks,and social integration: imitation,habits, and social evolution

The ethnically homogeneous middleman groups (EHMGs), which are informal trading networks, are ubiquitous in less-developed economies where the legal infrastructure for contract enforcement is not well developed. This paper develops a formal model of social interaction among members of the EHMG as well as in more general situations in a multi-ethnic or multi-cultural society consisting of identifiable ethnic or linguistic groups. Behavioral patterns are transmitted between generations and altered via imitation in social contacts. The model demonstrates how different discriminatory behavioral patterns can evolve and persist over time. One result is that the trust between such groups can increase due to a higher frequency of inter-group contacts. In concluding the paper, we speculate about how the model can be expanded to include changes in legal structures, especially contract law. This could lead to an increase in the trust between the different groups.     

Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS*

This article uses a simple New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as a prior for a vector autoregression, and shows that the resulting model is competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting, and can be used for policy analysis.     

A problem with estimating the short-run monetary exchange rate model

This paper shows that a composite moving average error is typically implied by a short-run monetary model of exchange rate. Thus, relying solely on the Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic as an indicator of serial correlation is inappropriate and may lead to inefficient coefficient estimates. We suggest that the time-series model technique of Box and Jenkins (1976) be used to identify an error model. The short-run monetary model of the exchange rate can then be estimated as a transfer function model by a maximum likelihood procedure.     

外债风险预警模型及中国金融安全状况评估

本文提出了一个用于预警一国外债风险的动态模型 ,即多元累计和模型。模型的用户 (债权人和债务国 )能很早地预测到可能导致债务国重订债务期限的金融危机。实证分析结果表明 ,模型具有提前 3年探测到债务国潜在的还债困难的能力。对中国经济金融安全状况的评估结果表明 ,模型可提前 1年发出预警信号。     

EXPORT SUBSIDIES, COST DIFFERENTIAL AND PRODUCT QUALITY

This paper presents a vertical product differentiation model to examine the relationship between optimal trade policies and product qualities for different export countries under Cournot quantity competition as well as Bertrand price competition. We can also use this quality model to explain why Japan as a high production-cost country may have incentives to offer high subsidies. This is a case that cannot be explained by the strategic trade theory models à la Brander and Spencer (1985) or Eaton and Grossman (1986).     

Intermediation by aid agencies

This paper models aid agencies as financial intermediaries that do not make a financial return to depositors, whose concern is to transfer resources to investor-beneficiaries. This leads to a problem of verifying that the agency is using donations as intended. One solution to this problem is for an agency to employ altruistic workers at below-market wages: altruistic workers, who can monitor the agency's activities, would not work at below-market rates unless they were genuinely transferring resources to beneficiaries. We consider conditions for this solution to be incentive compatible. In a model with pure moral hazard, observability of wages makes incorporation as a not-for-profit firm redundant as a commitment device. In a model with both moral hazard and adverse selection, incorporation as a not-for-profit firm can serve as a costly commitment mechanism reassuring donors against misuse of their funds. Hiring a worker of low ability can also be a valuable commitment device against fraud.     

CAN PRODUCTIVITY PROGRESS IN CHINA HURT THE USA? SAMUELSON'S EXAMPLE EXTENDED

Abstract.  This paper develops a general equilibrium three-goods Ricardian model that extends Samuelson's example on the impact of productivity progress. Our model highlights Samuelson's insight that productivity progress can change the pattern of trade and in turn can have dramatic welfare implications. It also shows that while Samuelson is correct that productivity growth in one country can hurt another, the loss is not as permanent as his example appears to suggest. Continuing productivity growth in one country is likely to benefit all trading countries in the long run.     

A nonsymmetric responding logistic model for forecasting technological substitution

This article presents a simple model of technological substitution termed as nonsymmetric responding logistic (NSRL). Based on the theory that substitution is an imitation process, the model can accommodate different patterns of technological substitution by allowing the imitation effect to vary over time systematically. It allows the S-curve to be symmetrical as well as nonsymmetrical, with the point of inflection responding to the substitution process. Data from four medical innovations are analyzed to illustrate the generality of the model.     

OPTIMAL GROWTH IN A TWO‐SECTOR RSS MODEL WITHOUT DISCOUNTING: A GEOMETRIC INVESTIGATION*

This essay reports results on optimal growth in a two‐sector model with fixed coefficients, irreversible investment and no discounting. Under normalization, the model can be represented by two real numbers, but despite its deceptive simplicity, it admits rich transition dynamics and apparent pathologies that seem to have been missed in earlier work. From a methodological point of view, and in the light of recent work of Nishimura and Yano, this essay can also be seen as a further rehabilitation of geometric methods as an engine of analysis.     

Contract enforcement in sellers' markets

I present an infinitely repeated game model where a monopolist seller has a contractual obligation with several buyers in each period. If a contract is violated the buyer can collect some compensation and impose a penalty on the seller. There are an infinite number of subgame perfect equilibria in this model, but I employ the concept of e-validated equilibrium to pick out a unique equilibrium outcome for the game where the seller is able to dominate the buyers. This model is clearly applicable to supply problems of Soviet-type economies, but it can explain certain phenomena of Western economies as well.     

Habits, hysteresis and catastrophes in labor supply

This paper investigates the implications of a general model of locally unstable habit formation with respect to consumption, household time and corporate time. The model is shown to imply multiple long-run equilibria exhibiting hysteresis and catastrophes dependent on rationings and the wage rate. This can explain profound changes in labor supply preferences and behavior such as when long-term unemployed become little motivated to get a new job or when former housewives develop a strong orientation towards paid work.     

Taste Variation in Discrete Choice Models

This paper develops an extension of the classical multinomial logit model which approximates a class of models obtained when there is uncontrolled taste variation across agents and choices in addition to the stochastic noise inherent in the logit model. Unlike semiparametric and parametric alternatives, the extended logit model is easy to estimate even when there are many potential choices. Unlike parametric alternatives, it does not require the specification of a distribution of varying tastes. The extended logit model can give a quick indication of the impact of taste variation on estimates and it generates estimates of the covariances of the taste shifters. It can be used as an exploratory device en route to the construction of a model incorporating a particular form of random taste variation and it can be used to determine whether such effort is required at all. When the amount of taste variation is not excessive the approximate model can be adequate itself. The model nests the conventional logit model which leads to a misspecification diagnostic. A method for estimating the model using conventional logit model software is proposed, asymptotic properties of estimators are derived and an application is presented.     

LEARNING-BY-DOING AND ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION IN A MODEL OF MONOPOLY REGULATION*

This paper combines learning-by-doing and asymmetric information in a model of monopoly regulation with and without foreign competition. The principal source of the information asymmetry is unobservable firm effort in the learning process, although unobservable costs are also considered. The major result is that a post-learning all-or-nothing output-contingent lump-sum subsidy can achieve the regulator's complete information welfare maximum. With foreign competition this model can best be thought of as one involving infant industry regulation.     

Alternative Techniques for Estimation of Cross-Section Gravity Models

This paper compares four different estimators with respect to their suitability for cross‐section gravity model estimation. In many circumstances, a Hausman–Taylor approach can be recommended. This framework may provide consistent parameter estimates, when OLS or the traditional random‐effects model are biased. In contrast to the fixed‐effects approach, it allows to estimate parameters of variables such as GDP or GDP per capita, which vary only in a single dimension. The Hausman–Taylor model deserves attention in the estimation of cross‐sectional gravity models.     

基于物流金融模式的中小型企业融资风险评价研究

物流金融是解决中小型企业融资难问题的一种有效模式。针对其目前风险研究缺乏定量评价的问题,本文将多层次模糊综合评价法引入模型,构建了一个基于三方经营主体、定量与定性指标相结合的风险评价模型。最后利用此模型进行了实例分析,结果验证该模型具有很强的实用性和科学性,可为银行等提供有益的决策参考。