Urbanization in Developing Countries

The rapid urbanization in many developing countries over thepast half century seems to have been accompanied by excessivelyhigh levels of concentration of the urban population in verylarge cities. Some degree of urban concentration may be desirableinitially to reduce inter- and intraregional infrastructureexpenditures. But in a mature system of cities, economic activityis more spread out. Standardized manufacturing production tendsto be deconcentrated into smaller and medium-size metropolitanareas, whereas production in large metropolitan areas focuseson services, research and development, and nonstandardized manufacturing.The costs of excessive concentration (traffic accidents, healthcosts from exposure to high levels of air and water pollution,and time lost to long commutes) stem from the large size ofmegacities and underdeveloped institutions and human resourcesfor urban planning and management. Alleviating excessively highurban concentration requires investments in interregional transportand telecommunications to facilitate deconcentration of industry.It also requires fiscal deconcentration, so that interior citiescan raise the fiscal resources and provide the services neededto compete with primate cities for industry and population.      

Capital Structures in Developing Countries

This study uses a new data set to assess whether capital structure theory is portable across countries with different institutional structures. We analyze capital structure choices of firms in 10 developing countries, and provide evidence that these decisions are affected by the same variables as in developed countries. However, there are persistent differences across countries, indicating that specific country factors are at work. Our findings suggest that although some of the insights from modern finance theory are portable across countries, much remains to be done to understand the impact of different institutional features on capital structure choices.     

Small Manufacturing Enterprises in Developing Countries

Emphasis is often placed on the promotion of small enterprisesin developing countries, particularly as a means of improvingthe lot of unskilled workers. This focus raises questions aboutthe relationship between establishment size and the patternand efficiency of factor use, and about the nature and effectsof price differentials in factor markets. This article goessome way toward answering these questions with data from surveysof small manufacturing enterprises in India and Colombia sponsoredby the World Bank and relevant material from other countries.The article also examines India's long-standing policy, unusualamong developing countries, of providing special support andprotection for small enterprises. Analyses based on disaggregateddata found that small firms are not reliably more labor-intensivethan their larger counter-parts; nor are they consistently moretechnically efficient in their use of resources. In light ofthese findings and an analysis of factor markets, this articlediscusses the general implications of the research results forindustrial policy in developing countries.     

发展中国家的国有经济改革

伴随发达国家国有经济改革,发展中国家针对本国国有经济存在的弊端也掀起了改革浪潮。改革的核心是产权的私有化。实践表明,私有化不是万能的,政府在经济发展中的干预作用不可削弱。国有经济改革的出路不只是私有化,更重要的是理顺产权关系,改革治理结构,提高管理水平。     

Personal Income Taxes in Developing Countries

Comparative work on income taxes in developing countries hascommonly looked at average tax rates. These rates are oftenconstructed by dividing revenue collections by some measureof private or personal income. Recent controversies have, however,focused on the incentive effects of marginal tax rates. Thisarticle develops and applies a simple methodology to comparemarginal official tax rates across a sample of fifty developingcountries. As would be expected given differences in fiscalcapacity, the poorest and the lower-middle-income countriesimpose relatively low marginal rates, and the rates for theupper-middle-income and developed countries are higher. Conversely,several low-and lower-middle-income countries' tax thresholdsstart at income levels which are low relative to their meanincome when compared with those of developed countries. Theresults warn against trying to derive information on the disincentiveeffect of a country's tax schedule from the highest marginalrate; our data show that this is not an accurate indicator ofoverall disincentive effects.     

Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries

Augmented measures of savings and wealth in the national accountsare critical to conceptualizing and achieving sustainable development.After developing the theory of genuine savings—traditionalnet savings less the value of resource depletion and environmentaldegradation plus the value of investment in human capital—thisarticle presents empirical estimates for developing countries.These calculations account for resource depletion and carbondioxide emissions, using consistent time series data for 1970–93.The empirical evidence shows that levels of genuine savingsare negative in a wide range of countries, particularly in Sub-SaharanAfrica, and that these countries are being progressively impoverished.Increasing the coverage of natural resources and pollutantsin our calculations would reduce the estimated levels of genuinesavings overall. The use of genuine savings measures suggestsa series of policy questions that are key to sustaining development.These are also explored, specifically the extent to which monetaryand fiscal policies, exports of exhaustible resources, strongerresource policies, and pollution abatement measures boost genuinesavings rates. For policymakers, linking sustainable developmentto genuine savings rates means that there are many possibleinterventions to increase sustainability, from the macroeconomicto the purely environmental.     

Saving in Developing Countries: An Overview

This article reviews the current state of knowledge on the determinantsof saving rates, presenting the main findings and contributionsof the recently completed World Bank research project, ‘SavingAcross the World.’ The article discusses the basic designof the research project and its core database, the World SavingDatabase. It then summarizes the main project results and placesthem in the context of the literature on saving, identifyingthe key policy and nonpolicy determinants of private savingrates. Special attention is paid to the relationship betweengrowth and saving and the impact of specific policies on savingrates. The article concludes by introducing the studies includedin this special issue.     

Managing Oil Price Risk in Developing Countries

This article presents a simple framework for understanding theimpact of oil dependence on growth in terms of an optimal savingsand investment strategy. Among the more important factors underlyingthis strategy is the extent to which oil price changes are temporaryor permanent. This in turn determines whether a country shouldrely on stabilization and savings funds or the use of financialinstruments to manage oil revenues—or both. Country experienceswith stabilization and savings funds are surveyed, and the caseis presented for using financial instrument to manage oil pricerisk. Policy implications for enhancing the use of financialinstruments are explored, including an expanded role for internationalfinancial institutions.      

Taxation of Financial Assets in Developing Countries

In developing countries most of the financial assets are depositsat commercial banks. This article focuses on the implicit taxationof financial assets through seigniorage, reserve requirements,lending targets, and interest ceilings combined with inflation.The impact of taxation on financial deepening increases significantlywith the tax rate, as shown by cross-sectional and time seriesdata for selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and SoutheastAsia. The problem of measuring revenue is examined, and theefficiency cost of taxation is analyzed in a Harberger framework.Although taxes on financial assets have a low administrativecost, the excess burden caused by the misallocation of resourcesis probably a much higher fraction of revenues than that ofother taxes.     

Prospects for Agricultural Land Taxation in Developing Countries

Countries that collect tax revenue from the agricultural sectorthrough export taxes, marketing boards, and overvalued domesticcurrencies are often loath to abandon these distorting policiesbecause of the consequent revenue loss. One potential alternativeis to replace these distortionary taxes with a land tax, whichwould not depress output prices or discourage foreign exchangeearnings and which could be, in theory, a highly progressivetax. The advantages and disadvantages of a land tax are examinedtheoretically and using the specific experiences of Bangladesh,Argentina, and Uruguay. It is concluded that the land tax isnot necessarily more efficient than other types of taxes; theAchilles Heel of land taxation is administration; progressivetax rates based on land holdings are nearly impossible to administer;land taxes have been ineffective at promoting nonrevenue goals;political support by farmers is necessary to implement the tax;and the most promising prospects for a moderate land tax systemare in financing local, rather than central, government expenditures.     

Infrastructure and Public Utilities Privatization in Developing Countries

Should governments in developing countries promote private ownershipand deregulated prices in noncompetitive sectors? Or shouldthey run publicly owned firms and regulate prices at the expenseof rents to insiders? A theoretical model is used to answerthese normative questions. The analysis focuses on the tradeoffbetween fiscal benefits and consumer surplus during privatizationof noncompetitive sectors. Privatization transfers control rightsto private interests and eliminates public subsidies, yieldingbenefits to taxpayers at the cost of increased prices for consumers.In developing countries, where budget constraints are tight,privatization and price liberalization may be optimal for lowprofitability industries but suboptimal for more profitableindustries. And once a market has room for more than one firm,governments may prefer to regulate the industry. Without a credibleregulatory agency, regulation is achieved through public ownership.     

发展中国家小额信贷发展模式分析

在世界各地组织实施小额信贷的机构有多种,有政府组织,也有非政府组织,有正式的金融机构,也有社区组织和国际组织。多边双边援助机构及政府组织把小额信贷视为发展援助的一个新内容,使得小额信贷得到迅速推广。在各国的实践中,小额信贷逐渐形成了一套符合本国国情的模式。目前,世界各国的小额信贷模式千差万别,以各种方式存在,主要包括五种模式。     

基于模糊评价的人才流失危机与预警研究

通过中小物流企业人才流失原因分析,拟定相应的人才流失危机指标,通过层次分析法确定相关指标的权重,可以从微观层面上对人才流失做出预警措施;把最低级的指标划分为五个等级,给出五个等级的评价尺度,请专家对每个指标的五个等级赋分,给出该指标在五个等级下的隶属度,构造相应的评价矩阵,算出相应的评价向量,根据评价向量中的数值,确定最大隶属度并与相应的五个评价尺度对照,可以得到中观层面上的人才流失预警措施;最后把相应的一级评价向量进行综合评价,利用所得的综合评价向量与评价尺度的列向量相乘,得到宏观层面上企业人才流失分析的概率值,把概率值对照评价尺度中的数值,就可以知道中小物流企业总体人才流失风险,便采取相应的预警措施。     

金融全球化与发展中国家的金融风险

金融全球化在推动经济增长的同时,也增加了金融体系的风险性,发展中国家由于其金融体系的脆弱性,其遭受打击程度要比发达国家严重得多。当今世界金融失衡的传递效应很显著,金融危机可以通过货币、资本、央行政策以及心理预期等因素进行传递。发展中国家由于金融体系的脆弱性,更成为金融危机的最大受害者。所以,加强监管,应该成为我们面对金融全球化的首要任务。     

Household Survey Data and Pricing Policies in Developing Countries

In recent years, household survey data from developing countrieshave increasingly become available and have been increasinglyused to cast light on important questions of policy. The reformof prices, whether agricultural prices, consumer taxes, subsidies,or tariffs, has consequences for individual welfare and forgovernment revenues, and these can be investigated empiricallywith household survey data. The gainers and losers from pricechanges can be identified, and the magnitudes of their gainsand losses measured. Nonparametric estimation techniques providea straightforward and convenient way of displaying this information.The procedure is illustrated for the effects of rice pricingin Thailand using data from more than five thousand rural households.Estimates of the revenue effects of price reforms are harderto obtain, because they require estimates of supply and demandelasticities, estimates that are not easily obtained for manydeveloping countries. A procedure is presented for estimatingprice elasticities of demand from spatial price variation asrecorded in household survey data. The main innovations liein the appropriate treatment of quality variations and measurementerror. Applications of the procedure in Côte d'lvoire,Indonesia, and Morocco are reviewed.     

Household Saving in Developing Countries: First Cross-Country Evidence

Although most studies have relied on domestic or private sectorsaving data, this article uses household data available fromthe U.N. System of National Accounts for a sample of 10 countries.Household saving functions are estimated using combined time-seriesand cross-country observations in order to test households'responses to income and growth, rates of return, monetary wealth,foreign saving, and demographic variables. The results showthat income and wealth variables affect saving strongly andin ways consistent with standard theories. Inflation and theinterest rate do not show clear effects on saving, which isalso consistent with their theoretical ambiguity. Foreign savingand monetary assets have strong negative effects on householdsaving, which suggests the importance of liquidity constraintsand monetary wealth in developing countries.     

Housing Policy in Developing Countries: Conjectures and Refutations

This article discusses housing policy in developing economies.It examines recent research findings in light of earlier argumentsas to the benefits of more market-oriented approaches. It alsolooks at whether the recommendations of earlier work have beenrefuted or developed in subsequent analyses and policy measures.In particular, it reviews the empirical analysis of the effectsof policy on housing supply, the richer understanding of theeffects that land market regulations have on housing affordabilityand the functioning of urban areas, and the alleged mysteriouseffects that researchers claim effective property rights haveon housing policy and on development more generally. It alsoexamines the effects of the increased emphasis on communityparticipation, showing how it helps to more fully reconcilethe incentives faced by beneficiaries of housing policy anddonors. Finally, it examines recent literature on the welfareeffects of rent control. The article shows that some of theconjectures as to the likely benefits of more market-based policyhave been refuted, but large welfare gains for poor people canstill be realized by adapting this approach. Furthermore, thisapproach appears to be gaining ground as the consensus approachto effective housing policy.