经济政策不确定性与企业投资趋同行为

文章以2003-2017年A股非金融类上市公司为研究样本,考察经济政策不确定性对企业投资趋同行为的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性的升高会显著增强企业投资趋同行为,该影响效应在信息优势企业有所减弱,在资产不可逆程度较高企业有所增强。分行业检验发现,在管制性行业以及景气度较低行业中,经济政策不确定性对企业投资趋同行为的影响减弱。进一步研究发现,在经济政策不确定性不断攀升的背景下,实体投资趋同性会带来更为严重的金融化,特别是在行业实体投资总体趋于放缓的情况下,企业金融化现象更加严重。该研究为宏观经济波动下企业投资趋同行为提供了经验证据。     

Does the productivity J-curve exist in Japan?-Empirical studies based on the multiple q theory

Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson (2021) argued that the standard TFP growth is low during an investment boom for new technology such as the IT revolution. As the new capital is operated and productivity improves, the shape of the movements in the standard productivity growth resembles a J-curve. However, when costs associated with investment for new technology are recognized as intangible investment - which is not counted in the conventional value added –, the revised TFP growth including these unmeasured intangibles show different movements from the standard TFP growth. Following Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson (2021), we examine the gap between the standard TFP growth and the revised TFP growth. According to their theory, unmeasured intangibles are estimated by the gap between the shadow value and the price of investment goods. We obtain this shadow value of investment through an estimated parameter in each asset using listed firm-level data and revise the standard TFP growth rate. In the case of all industries, the standard TFP growth is overestimated in most years in the late 1990s and the 2000s, because the growth in intangible investment associated with measured investment is lower than measured capital accumulation rate. When we focus on the IT-intensive industries, we find the productivity J-curve in the late 1990s, at the early stage of the IT revolution, as indicated by Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson (2021).     

中国上市公司业绩增长持续性及市场预测

上市公司的业绩增长能力对公司价值具有非常显著的影响,投资者希望找到市场上具有持续稳定成长性的公司。本文考察了公司业绩的增长水平,业绩增长的持续性以及市场对公司业绩增长的预测能力。本文发现公司业绩增长不具有持续性,呈现较大的波动性,投资者无法通过公司历史业绩增长情况预测未来业绩增长。市场对公司的未来业绩增长的预测能力较弱,只能预测大约未来3年时间的业绩增长情况,对更长时间的业绩增长无法预测。这可能与中国股市政策变动频繁,上市公司存在较多利润操纵行为有关。     

Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma

Using the “trilemma indexes” developed by Aizenman et al. (2010) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma—monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness—we examine how policy configurations affect macroeconomic performances, with focus on the Asian economies. We find that the three policy choices matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a country holds international reserves (IR) at a level higher than a threshold (about 20% of GDP). Greater monetary autonomy is associated with a higher level of inflation while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness could lower the inflation rate. We find that trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility through the investment or trade channel depending on the openness of the economies. Our results indicate that policy makers in a more open economy would prefer pursuing greater exchange rate stability while holding a massive amount of IR. Asian emerging market economies are found to be equipped with macroeconomic policy configurations that help the economies to dampen the volatility of the real exchange rate. These economies’ sizeable amount of IR holding appears to enhance the stabilizing effect of the trilemma policy choices, and this may help explain the recent phenomenal buildup of IR in the region.     

提高我国消费率问题的思考

伴随新一轮经济增长周期的到来,我国消费率持续走低再次引起人们对消费投资比例关系的广泛关注,理论界对此说法不一。文章阐述了研究我国消费投资比例关系不可忽视的经济运行环境和经济发展阶段因素,从多国长期趋势角度对我国较高投资率的合理性给予有力的支持,并从经济运行实     

城乡固定资产投资差距变化与中国经济增长互动关系研究

以城乡固定资产投资差距变化为视角,利用1980—2010的年度统计数据对经济增长与城乡固定资产投资差距变化关系进行了研究,通过协整分析及Granger因果检验得出结论:经济增长无论在长期还是短期都是城乡固定资产投资差距变化的原因之一,而城乡固定资产投资差距变化仅对短期的经济增长产生影响。基于此,文章提出通过经济增长使偏离的城乡固定资产投资差距实现合理回归以及通过合理的城乡固定资产投资差距促进经济快速增长都可成为政策调控的着力点。     

服务外包、农业投资及其替代效应——兼论农户是否必然是农业的投资主体

不同于以往从农户主体角度讨论诱导农业生产性投资的传统思路,文章从分工理论的视角出发,分析农业服务外包与生产性投资之间可能存在的替代关系,试图为中国小农引入现代生产要素及其投资选择提供一种新思路。基于广东阳山县的农户跟踪调查数据,选用Probit和Tobit模型的分析结果表明：农业服务外包与农户生产性投资行为之间存在显著的替代效应。具体而言,农业服务外包水平增加10%,农户进行生产性投资的概率降低3.21%,生产性投资总额降低29.24%。采用工具变量法再次验证了这一替代效应。异质性分析显示,该替代关系会随着种植规模的增大而减弱。文章的政策含义是：充分发挥农业服务外包市场的迂回投资功能,以外部投资替代农户的直接投资行为,从而将小农融入现代农业发展。为此,有必要反思和调整农村信贷政策,并适时制定面向新型农业服务经营主体发展的金融支持策略。     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SAVING AND GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

This paper uses the Johansen VECM estimation technique to examine the directions of association between saving and growth in South Africa over the period 1946–1992. We examine the aggregate private saving rate and its interaction with investment and growth. The paper finds that the private saving rate has a direct, as well as, an indirect effect on growth. The indirect effect is through the private investment rate. In turn, we find that growth has a positive effect on the private saving rate. The extent of this effect is determined by liquidity constraints. Thus, we have a virtuous cycle, as growth enhances saving, which in turn further enhances growth.     

房地产投资会阻碍区域经济增长吗？——基于中国2000—2017年的经验证据

近年来中国经济出现增长速度放缓、产业结构失衡等一系列问题,资源错配是产生这些问题的原因之一.从房地产投资出发,分析其通过房地产业、非房地产业、消费、经济风险影响经济增长的作用机制,并利用中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)2000—2017年的面板数据加以实证考察.研究发现:在观测期内,房地产投资对经济增长的促进作用低于非房地产投资;全国样本的实证结果显示房地产投资与经济增长呈现倒"U"形关系,说明房地产投资的增加最终会阻碍经济增长;分区域样本的实证结果表明,东北地区和中部地区与全国样本的趋势一致,呈现倒"U"形关系.其中,东北地区只有辽宁省于2014年跨过拐点,房地产投资对东北地区经济增长主要起到促进作用;中部地区6省分别从2008—2011年开始陆续跨过拐点,并持续至样本期末,说明房地产投资对中部地区经济增长造成的负面影响已经持续了10年左右.东部和西部地区的房地产投资与区域经济增长呈现显著的正向线性关系.     

Forces of economic growth in China,India, and other Asian countries

This paper applies different approaches to modelling sources of economic growth from time series and panel data sets for 10 Asian countries over the period 1970–2010. After being subjected to fragility tests, the cross‐country estimates indicate that investment, together with policy variables and openness to trade, explains about 90 per cent of the estimated 3.2 per cent steady‐state growth rate for the region. Regional growth policy points to expanding trade, supporting financial development, and maintaining sound investment environments. Although country‐specific growth effects vary, the results imply that different estimation methods, combined with fragility tests, can help establish stronger links between growth theory and policy advice.     

Public capital formation and labor productivity growth in Mexico

This paper addresses the important question whether public investment spending on economic infrastructure enhances economic growth and labor productivity in Mexico. Following the lead of the endogenous growth literature, it presents a modified production function which explicitly includes the positive or negative externality effects generated by additions to the public capital stock. Using cointegration analysis, the paper proceeds to estimate a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1955–94 period that incorporates the impact of the growth rate in the stocks of both private and public capital (as opposed to the flows) and the economically active population (EAP) (rather than the rate of population growth). The results suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending on economic infrastructure—as opposed to overall public investment spending—have a positive and highly significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth. In addition, the estimates suggest that increases in government consumption expenditures may have a negative effect on the rate of labor productivity growth, thus suggesting that the composition of government spending may also play an important role in determining the rate of labor productivity growth. Finally, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on economic and social infrastructure to meet targeted reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP.     

China's economic development: does exchange rate and FDI nexus matter?

This study aims to investigate the relationship between China's exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and economic development. We applied the bound testing approach on aggregate level data from 1981 to 2013. The results showed that the Chinese economy benefitted from a lower exchange rate over this period, and that there was a direct link between FDI inflows and economic development on an aggregate level both in the long and short run. The results of the Granger causality test identified a long‐ and short‐run association among these variables. The GMM estimations with dummies for financial crises and RMB exchange rate policy fluctuations also confirmed the growth enhancing impact of the exchange rate and FDI inflows. To promote sustainable economic development in the future, China should focus on improving the levels of domestic investment and human capital, as well as supervising the level of openness and capital controls.     

中国农村投资与农民收入和经济增长——对两类农村投资效果的分析

保持经济较快增长、实现农民持续增收是我国经济政策的核心目标.大量研究表明,投资是实现我国经济保持增长的重要动力,但不同投资的性质决定了其效果和影响的层面相差很大,文章认为投资发生地的不同也将导致投资的效果有所差异.本文利用计量手段,定量的经验分析了我国1990-2010年的数据,比较分析了农村人力资本投资和农村固定资产投资对农民收入、经济增长这两大指标的影响结果,发现固定资产投资更具有滞后效应,人力资本投资总效应更强的结论,并对此进行了解释.     

The Global Setting and African Economic Growth

This paper reviews the evidence on the importance of the globalsetting for the economic growth of African economies, particularlyin the light of the increasing salience of globalisation. Althoughexport promotion strategies are found to be growth enhancingfor African economies, available evidence suggests that it isthe manufacturing component that really seems to matter. Theglobal-related factors with adverse effects include terms oftrade deterioration, economic instabilities of capital (investment)and imports, high world interest rates, real exchange rate misalignment,diminishing external aid flows into countries with sound policies,large external debt and high export taxes. The World Trade Organisationframework also matters for the growth prospects of African countries.The current time-bound exemptions accorded most African countriesunder the framework are steps in the right direction.     

China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment

We evaluate the effect of China's monetary policy shocks on corporate real investment. We propose a new approach to identify China's monetary policy shocks using high-frequency surprises based on treasury futures around monetary policy announcements as external instruments. We then estimate the dynamic effect of monetary policy shocks on corporate real investment using a rich firm-level data of all listed non-financial firms in China. We find that an unexpected monetary policy easing boosts firms' investment expenditures with heterogeneous dynamic responses across firms: small-sized firms have quicker responses than large-sized firms, especially for non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). We show that sales revenue response could be the channel through which monetary policy shock transmits to non-SOEs' investment expenditures in China.     

利率市场化及其传导效率的时变效应——基于DSGE和SV-TVP-VAR模型的分析

文章首先构建新凯恩斯DSGE模型从理论上模拟了我国政策利率传导的基准效应,然后构建SV-TVP-VAR模型实证研究了利率市场化进程中传导的时变效应并根据基准效应计算了传导效率。DSGE理论模拟结果显示,在理想的情况下政策利率可以传导至产出、价格、消费、投资等变量以及影响劳动力市场和工资水平,同时理想的政策利率传导没有时滞效应。从持续期来看,政策利率冲击对产出、价格、消费、投资、劳动力需求等变量的调控效果在中长期趋于收敛,但对工资的影响并没有表现出收敛趋势。基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的实证结果表明,我国政策利率对产出、通货膨胀率、消费、投资变量均产生了良好的逆周期调控效果,对通货膨胀率、消费和投资的调控存在一定的时滞效应。综合两个模型结果的进一步分析表明,随着利率市场化的推进,政策利率对产出、通货膨胀率、消费、投资的传导效率不断提升,1996-2019年对四个变量的传导效率分别由43%、27%、18%、52%上升至86%、36%、54%、95%。文章推断,所有制差异和利率双轨制可能是现阶段制约传导效率提升的两大问题,应以破解利率双轨制逐步取消存贷款基准利率为抓手推进利率市场化,形成政策利率向市场基准利率再到货币市场、债券市场、信贷市场利率的联动传导机制,同时通过国有企业改革打破预算软约束,弱化信贷方面隐性担保的体制优势,使得所有市场主体真正对利率变动敏感,政策调控可以更加顺畅地传导至实体经济。文章的边际贡献在于综合理论模拟和实证研究为利率传导效率和利率市场化分析提供了一个新的思路。     

财政支出、贸易条件与实际利率水平

本文主要是分析当一国实行扩张性的财政政策时,它对投资支出以及国际实际利率水平的影响。研究显示,扩张性的财政政策会导致世界各国的投资支出负向变动。这是由于财政支出会造成实际利率水平的变动,而世界各国对实际利率水平变化的反应是非对称性的,所以投资支出的变动有所差别。这种现象主要取决于下述因素：一是政府财政支出倾向对消费支出倾向的替代程度;二是消费跨期替代弹性的大小。     

区域投资实际汇率、FDI与经济增长

文章基于跨境投资视角测度中国2000~2017年29省时变权重的区域投资实际有效汇率(RIREER),并将汇率、FDI与经济增长纳入同一分析框架构建理论模型。在此基础上,从汇率水平和波动两维度深入考察经由FDI渠道对区域经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,RIREER升值有助于吸引FDI,进而对东道国(地区)经济扩张产生积极作用,该积极作用在沿海地区效果更为显著,拉大了沿海与内陆经济增长差距,但RIREER升值对FDI的边际吸引力递减。RIREER波动导致FDI流出,对东道国(地区)经济产生负向冲击,该负向经济冲击对沿海地区影响更为明显,缩小了沿海与内陆经济增长差距,但汇率风险增大引发FDI流出的边际作用递减。     

Public investment and food security: Evidence from the Hundred Billion Plan in China

This paper examines the causal effect of public investment on food output by exploiting a panel dataset covering a large central government program (Hundred Billion Plan) in China from 2007 to 2013. Based on an event study methodology, we find that public investment significantly increases food output by 4.34%. We find that the sources of the policy effect come mainly through improving productivity, which is driven by increases in fertilizer inputs by households and by the crowding in local government agricultural investments. Further, an ad-hoc benefit-cost analysis shows that the internal return rate (IRR) is 0.23% over a 20-year period. Our results are robust in terms of the assumption of parallel trends, the confounding effect from an alternative policy, the nonrandom selection issue of policy implementation, the inclusion of alternative sets of control variables, the treatment of outliers and the omitted variable biases.     

Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China＇s Growth？

One of the missing pieces preventing us from understanding recent Chinese economic development is the role played by openness and capital accumulation in this process. The question is whether the sharp economic＇ growth that the Chinese economy has experienced is another case of export-led growth due to the open-door policy or whether, on the contrary, this growth has been caused by high domestic savings and investment rates （and the consequent capital accumulation）. To answer this question, we employed an empirical framework of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that both investment （in physieal capital and R＆D） and exports, as well as the exchange rate policy, are relevant factors in explaining China＇s long-run economic growth over the past 4 decades.