Local fiscal policy after a bailout: austerity or soft budget constraints?

Do higher-level governments enforce austerity after bailing out indebted subnational governments or are bailouts a free lunch for the recipients? Analyzing this question empirically is difficult because bailouts are not granted randomly. This paper suggests a method to evaluate the fiscal consequences of subnational bailouts that does not rely on institutional details to obtain quasi-exogenous variation. The main idea is to combine matching and difference-in-differences designs. In a second step, I apply this method to study how bailouts affect the fiscal policy of recipient municipalities in the German federal state of Hesse. Combining disaggregated budget data with data on bailout payments over more than a decade, I find that municipalities consolidate their budgets after they receive a bailout from the state government. While this finding is specific to the German federal context, the proposed methodology can be used, due to its flexibility, to study the fiscal consequences of bailouts in various other settings.     

CORPORATE CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND HOW SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS MAY AFFECT IT

Abstract.  This survey paper examines existing theories of capital structure and related empirical tests with the aim to derive theoretical as well empirically testable predictions about the implications of the soft budget constraint for corporate capital structure. We show that the soft budget constraint syndrome is relevant for a variety of institutional environments, from central planning to capitalist economic systems, and consider features of company financing patterns in various institutional contexts. Special attention is paid to emerging and transition economies where, with the development of financial markets, companies reduce their financial dependence on the state and begin to borrow from a variety of sources. However, due to the persistence of soft budget constraints, corporate capital structure in transition and emerging economies may still deviate significantly from the capital structure of companies operating under hard budget constraints.     

我国经济转轨期软预算约束与通货膨胀分析

本文采用我国1989～2009年经济转轨时期的数据,对联立方程模型参数进行了重新估计,估计结果显示预算软约束依然是通货膨胀产生的原因之一,但是转轨时期软预算约束正逐步向硬约束转变,这个转变对社会消费尤其是居民消费产生很大影响。然后对2009年以来的通货膨胀问题与软预算约束以及结构扭曲之间的关系进行了研究,研究发现这一轮的物价上涨与经济结构严重失衡有密切的关系,并且预算软约束的存在使财政赤字和国债负担扩大,给经济运行带来了隐患和风险。     

Keyword auctions with budget-constrained bidders

We study a keyword auction model where bidders have constrained budgets. In the absence of budget constraints, Edelman et al. (Am Econ Rev 97(1):242–259, 2007) and Varian (Int J Ind Organ 25(6):1163–1178, 2007) analyze “locally envy-free equilibrium” or “symmetric Nash equilibrium” bidding strategies in generalized second-price auctions. However, bidders often have to set their daily budgets when they participate in an auction; once a bidder’s payment reaches his budget, he drops out of the auction. This raises an important strategic issue that has been overlooked in the previous literature: Bidders may change their bids to inflict higher prices on their competitors because under generalized second-price, the per-click price paid by a bidder is the next highest bid. We provide budget thresholds under which equilibria analyzed in Edelman et al. (Am Econ Rev 97(1):242–259, 2007) and Varian (Int J Ind Organ 25(6):1163–1178, 2007) are sustained as “equilibria with budget constraints” in our setting. We then consider a simple environment with one position and two bidders and show that a search engine’s revenue with budget constraints may be larger than its revenue without budget constraints.     

Multi-sectoral interdependencies of regional public infrastructure investments

Public investment decision-making processes involve multiple and interrelated sectoral and regional policy objectives and budget constraints. This paper presents a dynamic spatio-economic model that considers multi-sectoral investment interdependencies using data at the prefecture level in Greece. The expenditure allocation dynamics of most types of regional public investment are found to be competitive with each other. This outcome is attributed to the lack of policy coordination, technological and budget constraints, geographical factors, and equity and political considerations. The investment interrelationships may have a significant effect on future state funding needs and the strategic assessment of infrastructure development at the country level.     

Human resource management and organizational strategies in German- and US-owned companies

The development of the international economy over the past twenty years has bred considerable diversity in the form and substance of employment relations (labour-management relations, human resource management practices) throughout the world. Cases of ‘social partnership’ are today found in the ‘free market’ United States economy; some companies operating in Germany's ‘social’ market economy are rejecting traditional forms of social partnership in the name of more unilateral strategies.

This paper examines (a) the extent to which ‘strategic diversity’ – variation in human resource strategies and policies – is possible within the heavily institutionalized, co-operative and codeterminative German economy, and (b) how managers perceive the effects of different kinds of HR approaches on organizational change and industrial adjustment. It is based on empirical evidence drawn from seven large chemicals companies operating in Germany – three of them US-owned firms and four German-owned.

The main conclusions are that considerable strategic diversity is possible within the German context, and that managers perceive distinct costs and benefits to specific aspects of the typically American ‘unilateral’ style and the more German ‘negotiated’ approach to structuring the relationship with human resources. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these trade-offs for the transferability of HR strategies across international borders, giving special attention to policies to avoid some of these potential costs.     

Aligning strategic human resource management and person–environment fit

Strategic human resource management addresses the need to create vertical linkages of human resource management (HRM) attributes with corporate strategy as well as horizontal linkages that integrate practices among HRM functions. Most models commonly focus on either vertical or horizontal linkages. This paper utilizes three categories of person–environment fit to create both vertical and horizontal linkages. Based on a strategic contingency framework, it demonstrates how person–environment fit relates to organizational competencies that supports corporate strategy. Furthermore, it demonstrates how person–environment fit can be used to promote internal alignment of HRM practices. Implications of this approach to strategic human resource management are then discussed.     

Company performance in Ukraine: is this a market economy?

This paper examines empirically the responsiveness of firm performance to ownership and market structures, sector and regional specificity, and varying degrees of soft budget constraints. It does so by providing a “snapshot” of the economy. For cross-sectional data on Ukrainian firms in 1998, the paper presents evidence that the firms in the snapshot behaved more as if they were still in a loosely reformed Soviet environment where exchange via interpersonal connections, rather than the price mechanism, determined the allocation of resources.     

Analysts' Forecasts of German Firms' Earnings: a Comparative Analysis

This paper examines analysts' forecasts of the annual earnings per share of German firms over the period of February 1987 to December 1995. The German case is particularly interesting as the accounting and institutional structures vary from those in more thoroughly researched markets such as the U.S. or U.K. The paper therefore considers the features of the German forecasting environment which distinguish it from the Anglo-American model, and whether these might be reflected in forecasting performance. The results for Germany show that the accuracy of analysts' forecasts improves as the forecast horizon shortens, are less accurate than a naive prediction model over longer horizons, and contain a positive bias. When the results for Germany are contrasted with the results for the U.K., as reported in a recent paper, they are found to be a little less accurate but the positive bias is greater in U.K. forecasts. Taken overall the forecasting process in Germany appears to be less efficient than in the U.K., but this may be due to the distinct features of the German forecasting environment.     

Human resource and industrial relations practices of UK and US multinationals in Germany

Most of the research about HRM and IR practices of MNCs in their host country has been conducted in deregulated countries such as the UK and the US. Host countries with relatively weak institutional arrangements facilitate the transfer of home-country practices. In contrast, those with institutionally strong systems, such as Germany, impose stronger pressures for adaptation. This paper reports research about nine US and four UK subsidiaries operating in Germany. It examines how their HRM and IR practices are shaped by German labour and IR institutions, how they differ from a control group of indigenous firms and what room for manoeuvre is left for the introduction of home-country practices. The main conclusions are that small and medium-sized subsidiaries in particular can to some extent avoid the pressures exerted by German labour and IR institutions. This facilitates the transfer of home-country practices. However, even larger affiliates that comply with the German institutions can transfer practices from their parent company. The highly regulated German system leaves some room for flexibility. Nevertheless, the institutional environment prevents large companies from following a unitarist HRM and IR approach.     

Do fiscal constraints prevent default? Historical evidence from U.S. municipalities

Through the nineteenth century numerous U.S. states developed extensive municipal fiscal constitutions. These generally came in the wake of financial crises and large-scale default of public debts. Although the constraints were imposed in order to minimize the likelihood that such outcomes would occur in the future, little work has been undertaken to analyze whether they were successful in achieving that goal. Therefore, this current study attempts to do so by empirically investigating how procedural safeguards and outright prohibitions on debt accumulation, along with hard budget constraints, and tax limits impacted the likelihood of default. This is done by evaluating municipal defaults that centered on the Panic of 1893. Overall, the results suggest that outright prohibitions on debt accumulation and hard budget constraints actually reduced the likelihood of municipal default across states, while tax limits and procedural safeguards increased that likelihood.     

MULTI‐CRITERIA OPTIMIZATION OF REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT POLICY: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS FOR GERMANY

The distribution of European and national aid among 271 German labor market regions is considered as an optimization problem with three targets: (i) interregional equalization of unemployment rates; (ii) minimization of total (national) unemployment; and (iii) maximization of GDP, subject to budget constraints and some administrative restrictions. The analysis of the German program in 2000–2002 shows that the results actually obtained for 6 billion euro required only 241 million euro under optimal planning (4% of the actual budget). Such an inappropriate implementation of active labor market policies can be the cause of low efficiency, often misinterpreted as uselessness. This paper suggests a decision aid for optimal planning and shows that tax returns from the additional GDP due to jobs subsidized can transform regional policy into a winning governmental strategy.     

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE EURO?

The Stability Pact ‐ intended to make EMU governments run prudent budgets ‐ is losing its credibility. This article asks the question: what will happen if national debts start to rise again and some governments then have difficulty borrowing? It suggests that there will be calls for bailout, that the EU's political structures will not cope well with the resulting arguments over which countries will pay, and that the eventual and painful result will be a return to the principle that currencies and political areas coincide.     

Customer motivations for sustainable consumption: Investigating the drivers of purchase behavior for a green‐luxury car

The purpose of the study is to investigate the effect of status motivation on customers' purchase intention of a green‐luxury car associated with owning a green‐luxury car, and whether materialism and horizontal–vertical individualism/collectivism moderate this relationship. The quantitative research methodology using online survey technique was used to collect cross‐cultural data from respondents (507) from China and Germany. Purposive sampling technique was used to identify and collect data from current and prospective customers of the BMW brand. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results demonstrated that materialism and cultural value (horizontal–vertical collectivism and vertical individualism) can serve as moderators of the effects of status motivation and purchase intention of the green‐luxury car. Although some studies have explored the factors involved in customer purchasing behaviour for green‐luxury products, our results theoretically and empirically show that materialism, vertical individualism, horizontal collectivism, and vertical collectivism enhance the positive effects of status motivation on customer purchasing behaviour for a green‐luxury car.     

The Extent and Evolution of Productivity Deficiency in Eastern Germany

Since the German re-unification in 1990, Eastern Germany has been a transition economy. After a phase of catching up in productivity with Western Germany from 1991 to 1996, growth rates in the producing sector have dropped below those in Western Germany since 1997. This study investigates whether this macroeconomic picture holds at the microeconomic level. For the special case of Eastern Germany, I suggest identifying productivity gaps by using comparable Western German firms as a “productivity benchmark”. Applying an econometric matching procedure allows to study the productivity gap at the firm level in detail. Besides labor and capital, other factors like innovation and firm ownership are taken into account. The macroeconomic facts are broadly confirmed: a significant gap has remained in recent years. Moreover, Eastern German innovators perform worse than their Western German pendants, and firms owned by Western German or foreign companies perform better than those owned by Eastern German entities.     

Are German,Japanese and Anglo‐Saxon Strategic Decision Styles Still Divergent in the Context of Globalization?*

abstract Issues of globalization and divergence in terms of national systems and cultures are equally contentious, yet equally important, in the context of increasing cross‐continental co‐operation. This article investigates comparative strategic decision styles in Britain, the USA, Germany and Japan. An industry at an advanced stage in terms of globalization, vehicle components manufacture, was selected in order to explore the extent of convergence and whether this has changed. Between 1989 and 1998, field case studies were made of 100 strategic investment decisions (SIDs) by manufacturers in these four countries. Longitudinal judgements were supplemented by earlier comparative strategy field research carried out in 60 suppliers between 1980 and 1983, and two longitudinal case studies, one from the UK and one from Japan, interviewed throughout both these periods and again in 2002. Two competing hypotheses, derived from rich research literatures, are investigated. The first (H1) suggests that national institutional and cultural factors exert profound differences, and should therefore be afforded more significance as globalization proceeds further. The second (H2) is apparently contradictory and emphasizes that institutions and organizations are likely to respond to convergence pressures, spurred by global capital markets and competition on the one hand, and a diffusion of ‘professional management’ practices on the other. Japanese firms generally, and German family firms in particular, were still found to exhibit deep‐rooted differences from the Anglo‐Saxon model, which appears to confirm H1. However study of German public companies reveals that their strategic approaches are far less divergent from what is now an increasingly consistent Anglo‐Saxon model than they were a decade ago, which appears to confirm the competing hypothesis H2.     

Are universal banks bad for financial stability? Germany during the world financial crisis

This case study explores the contribution of universal banking to financial stability in Germany during the recent financial crisis. Germany is a prototype for universal banking and has suffered from a rather small number of banking crises in the past. We review the banking literature and analyze the major institutional and regulatory features of the German financial system to establish a nexus between universal banking and stability. We focus on the following questions. First, which banks failed and did they because they were universal or because of other reasons? Second, which types of distress beside outright bank failures resulted from the crisis and how did German universal banks dealt with them? We show that only few German banks failed and these banks did so not because they were universal banks but because they were publicly owned. Most banks instead contributed to reduce the impact of the recent crisis.     

Upward classism: Prejudice and stereotyping against the wealthy

While there are many studies of prejudice towards disadvantaged minorities, there has been little research into stereotypes of rich people. The author commissioned the first international comparative study to investigate popular attitudes towards rich people. He analyses findings from the United States, Great Britain, Germany, and France, and calculates a ‘Social Envy Coefficient’ for these four countries. Envy appears most pronounced in France, followed by Germany. By contrast, envy is significantly lower in the United States and Great Britain, although there are interesting variations by age. In addition, the study subjects a sample of popular international feature films and articles in German newspapers to detailed media content analysis. This analysis finds that rich individuals are predominantly portrayed as cold-hearted, profit-hungry and morally suspect.     

Exchange Rate Adjustment in Partially Liberalized Economy

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination in partially liberalized post-socialist economy that operates under soft budget constraints in nontradable sectors. The model captures the factors that determine the evolution of a country's external balance during the initial phase of economic liberalization. Three types of disturbances are the center of analysis: liberalization of trade and foreign exchange regime, devaluation, and price liberalization. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation may either improve or worsen the trade balance depending on the sources of this appreciation. Thus, we argue that the real exchange rate cannot reflect true country's competitiveness unless all sectors are equally exposed to hard budget constraints. The model implications are further analyzed through the empirical evidence on the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance in three selected East European countries.     

Real Geographies,Real Economies and Soft Spatial Imaginaries: Creating a ‘More than Manchester’ Region

This article develops a framework for analysing region‐building processes as spatiotemporal constructs, involving competing spatial imaginaries and attempts at consolidating these through institution building. Central here is the performative role of what we refer to as ‘soft space imaginaries’ in the ‘phased’ building of regions for planning and economic development over time. We demonstrate how this understanding can be used to examine the phased enactment of successive waves of region‐building by tracing the evolution of multiple soft spatial imaginaries in north‐west England. The analysis exposes the variable logics, alliances of actors, and tactics used to build momentum and secure legitimacy around preferred imaginaries which advocates often promoted on the grounds that they somehow reflected ‘real geographies’ or ‘real economies’. In this context, soft space imaginaries are seen to play an integral role in intellectual case making about the contemporaneous form and purpose of subnational governance. Yet our analysis also exposes the durability of past soft space imaginaries and their continued impact on efforts to build new soft spaces. What emerges is an understanding of soft space imaginaries as more than just superficial representations. They can help determine where government investment is channelled and into what kinds of policies.