Long-term effects of public low-income housing vouchers on neighborhood quality and household composition

In this paper we estimate the effect of housing voucher receipt on the composition of recipient households and the quality of the neighborhoods in which recipient households reside. Drawing on a dataset that contains extensive information on a large and diverse panel of low-income families for up to 5 years following voucher receipt, we isolate the effects of voucher receipt using propensity score matching techniques together with regression adjustment. Full-sample results show voucher receipt to have little effect on neighborhood quality in the short-term, but some positive long-term effects. We also find that voucher receipt is tied to a higher probability of change in household composition in the year of voucher receipt, but greater stability in subsequent years. Our large sample allows us to explore differential responses of geographic and socioeconomic subgroups. Our findings have several implications for both research and policy.     

Human Capital Spillovers within the Workplace: Evidence for Great Britain*

In this paper, we use a unique matched worker–workplace data set to estimate the effect on own earnings of co‐workers’ education. Our results, using the 1998 GB Workplace Employee Relations Survey, show significant effects. An independent, significantly positive effect from average workplace education is evident; own earnings premia from years of education fall only slightly when controlling for workplace education. This result suggests that the social returns to education are strongly positive – working with colleagues who each had 1.2 years (1 standard deviation) of more education than the average worker, boosts own earnings by 11.1%. An additional year of any single co‐worker's education is worth about 3.2% of an additional own year of education. We also test for interactions between own and co‐worker education levels and for ‘skills incompatibility’ when worker education levels are heterogeneous. The interactions appear negative: own education is not much valued at workplaces where co‐workers’ education levels are already high. There is no evidence that workplace heterogeneity in worker education levels adversely affects own earnings. This result runs counter to theoretical predictions, and suggests that workers compete in tournaments for high‐paying jobs.     

Job losses and child outcomes

Based on matched employer–employee data from Norway, we analyze the effects of worker displacement in 1986–1987 on their children's earnings in 1999–2001. Using displacement of fathers to indicate an exogenous earnings shock we seek to identify whether family resources have a direct effect on children's economic outcome. Job losses appear to have a negative effect on earnings and employment of those affected, while we find no significant effects on earnings of the next generation.     

Early labor market outcomes of university graduates: Does time to degree matter?

Using university administrative and survey data drawn from the AlmaLaurea Consortium, we analyze the effect of time to degree on the early labor market performance of Italian graduates. The empirical strategy allows identifying separately the impact of elapsed time to degree on the transition from university to work and on earnings from other determinants specific to the academic path completed. Findings suggest that delayed graduation reduces the employment probability (0.8% points for each year of delay), and this effect is still persistent five years after graduation. Once employed, graduates not completing their degree within the minimum period are also penalized in their net monthly earnings, even five years after graduation. The most penalized groups are women and graduates in non-scientific fields.     

竞争对手的负面盈余意外：一损俱损还是此消彼长?

以2011—2021年A股上市公司为研究样本，聚焦高集中度的垄断行业，以负面盈余意外作为关键事件，以事件公司同行业其他公司作为焦点公司，采用事件研究法探究竞争对手负面盈余意外对焦点公司市场反应的影响。研究发现，在垄断行业中，竞争对手发生负面盈余意外的两天内(竞争对手发布盈余公告的当天和接下来一天),焦点公司的累计超额收益显著为正，且竞争对手的负面盈余意外程度越大，焦点公司的累计超额收益越高，说明竞争对手负面盈余意外在行业内产生了显著的竞争效应。进一步研究发现，产品可替代性以及焦点公司与竞争对手的相似度均会加剧正面溢出，而行业增长对正面溢出具有显著的缓解作用。     

The returns to formality and informality in urban Africa

This paper addresses the questions as to the size and causes of earnings differentials in two urban African labor markets, those of Ghana and Tanzania. We have panel data so we can ask how far time invariant unobservables, market ability for short, matters in the determination of earnings. We also have information on whether the individual is own self-employed, self-employed with employees, a private or public sector wage employee and the size of the enterprise in which wage employees work or which the self-employed owns. We find, mirroring work on developed economies, that unobserved individual market ability is by far the most important factor explaining the variance of earnings. With controls for such ability the gap between private wage employment and civil servants is about 50%. With controls for enterprise size we find that wage employees earn the same as the self-employed in both Ghana and Tanzania. Enterprise size matters. At most half of the OLS effect of size on earnings can be explained by unobservable ability. Workers in the largest firms are the high earners with wage rates which exceed those of civil servants. These results all assume exogenous movement. We find evidence that endogeneity bias may be serious and may be understating the extent of both the size effect and the private sector wage (negative) premium. The implications of our results for understanding the nature of formal and informal employment in Africa are discussed.     

The economic impact of migration: productivity analysis for Spain and the UK

Over the past 20?years labour has become increasingly mobile and whilst employment and earnings effects in host countries have been extensively analysed, the implications for firm and industry performance have received far less attention. This paper explores the direct economic consequences of immigration on host nations?? productivity performance at a sectoral level in two very different European countries, Spain and the UK. Whilst the UK has traditionally seen substantial immigration, for Spain the phenomenon is much more recent. Our findings from a growth accounting analysis show that migration has made a negative contribution to labour productivity growth in Spain and a negative but negligible contribution in the UK. This difference is driven by a positive impact from migrant labour quality in the UK. This finding broadly holds across all sectors, but we note considerable variation in magnitudes. Labour productivity growth has a neutral contribution from migrant labour in construction and personal services in the UK, whilst in every case in Spain the effect is negative, most strongly in agriculture. Using an econometric approach to production function estimation we observe a positive long term effect on total factor productivity from migrant workers in the UK and a negative effect in Spain. Our findings suggest that either the UK is better at assimilating migrants or is more selective in terms of who is permitted to migrate.     

Youth minimum wage reform and the labour market in New Zealand

This paper analyses the effects of a large reform in the minimum wages affecting youth workers in New Zealand since 2001. Prior to this reform, a youth minimum wage, applying to 16–19 year-olds, was set at 60% of the adult minimum. The reform had two components. First, it lowered the eligible age for the adult minimum wage from 20 to 18 years, and resulted in a 69% increase in the minimum wage for 18 and 19 year-olds. Second, the reform raised the youth minimum wage in two annual steps from 60% to 80% of the adult minimum, and resulted in a 41% increase in the minimum wage for 16 and 17 year-olds over a two-year period. We estimate the impact of this reform by comparing average outcomes for these two groups of teenagers, before and after the change, to those for 20–25 year-olds, who were unaffected by the reform. We find no evidence of adverse effects on youth employment immediately following the reform, but some weak evidence of employment loss by 2003. We also find evidence of a 10–20% increase in hours worked following the reform for employed 16–17 year-olds, and up to a 10% increase for employed 18–19 year-olds, depending on the specification adopted. Combined, wage, hours, and employment changes lead to significant increases in labour earnings and total income of teenagers relative to young adults. However, we also find evidence of a decline in educational enrolment, and an increase in unemployment, inactivity, and benefit receipt rates, suggesting that while the minimum wage reform increased the labour supply of teenagers, this increase was not matched by as large an increase in employment.     

The impact of the European social fund on youth education and employment

The effectiveness of the European Union's Cohesion Policy in reducing regional socio-economic gaps remains an open empirical issue, while evidence as to how the policy is affected by specific territorial factors and which social groups benefit most from it remains sparse. This article seeks to address this gap by disentangling the impact of the European Social Fund (ESF) on youth education and employment prospects. Drawing on macro-level data for the European NUTS-2 regions, we assess the impact that this fund has on different education-specific youth population shares and employment rates. In the case of education, we find that the receipt of funding is associated with a human capital polarization of regional populations. Specifically, we identify a positive impact of the ESF on population shares with lower-secondary and tertiary education, and a simultaneous negative impact on the share of those with upper-secondary education. In the case of employment, we find a positive response for youth of all education levels. A heterogeneity analysis indicates that both the education and employment responses of the youth population to the receipt of the ESF are strongly influenced by local specialization in high-skilled activities.     

Do Analysts Strategically Employ Cash Flow Forecast Revisions to Offset Negative Earnings Forecast Revisions?

We investigate whether analysts use cash flow forecasts to reduce the impact of earnings forecast revisions (EFRs) on market participants. In particular, we focus on conflict between an analyst's concurrent cash flow and earnings forecast revisions. We hypothesize and find that analysts are more likely to issue a positive cash flow forecast revision when they issue a negative earnings forecast revision concurrently, but not the opposite, particularly for Fortune 500 firms. Furthermore, our supplementary analyses suggest that (1) some analysts optimistically bias cash flow forecasts when they issue negative earnings forecast revisions; (2) the market pays less attention to the historical accuracy of analyst cash flow forecasts, so analysts have some latitude to present their cash flow forecasts in an optimistic way; and (3) the market reacts mainly to the direction, not the magnitude, of cash flow forecast revisions. Overall, these findings suggest that analysts may strategically use cash flow forecasts in conjunction with earnings forecasts to maintain good management relationships.     

Working while enrolled in a university: does it pay?

This study examines how university students' employment decisions affect their labor market success after graduation. The study is based on individual level panel data of Finnish university students from the years 1987–1998. The OLS estimates show that in-school work experience is associated with higher earnings and employment after graduation. However, work months during the enrollment are not exogenously chosen. Average local unemployment rate during enrollment is used as an instrument for work experience acquisition to correct for the endogeneity bias. Comparing graduates with equal times-to-degree, the IV estimates show that work experience increases earnings considerably one year after graduation. The effect is smaller and statistically insignificant in later years. Taking into account that working usually leads to longer times-to-degree, IV estimates show no significant returns to student employment.     

Children and female employment in Mongolia

Although a large body of literature has argued that motherhood has a profound and long-lasting negative effect on the employment and earnings of women, there is little evidence focusing on the post-communist region. This paper exploits the latest rounds of the EBRD-World Bank Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) and the Mongolian National Statistics Office Household Socio-Economic Survey (HSES) to examine the correlation between the presence of children of different age categories in a family and female employment in Mongolia in 2016. We examine the availability of childcare, social norms and attitudes towards women, as well as household decision-making as potential explanations. We find that small children decrease the probability of female employment relative to women with no small children. In particular, women with two children aged one to six years are 21.5 percentage points less likely to be employed. Our results also suggest that cultural biases against women may be at least partially responsible for the low female employment levels we uncovered. These results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variable bias.     

A note on bride kidnapping and labour supply behaviour of Kyrgyz women

Using data from the 2011 and 2016 Life in Kyrgyzstan surveys, we examine Kyrgyz women’s labour supply elasticities at the extensive margin. We use Heckman’s two-step approach to predict earnings for the non-participating women and then use these predictions to estimate the participation equation. We find that women’s labour supply decision is not influenced by their earnings. We also show that there exists a significant gap in employment propensities among ethnic Kyrgyz women in consensual or arranged marriages compared to women in kidnapped-based marriages. This finding suggests that the practice of bride abduction adversely affects women’s probability of employment and might have negative consequences on their economic well-being.     

Programme Evaluation with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Selective Implementation: The Mexican PROGRESA Impact on Child Nutrition

This paper considers the impact of Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación ( PROGRESA ), a large Mexican rural anti-poverty programme that had an evaluation sample in which overall treatment was randomly assigned to some communities but not others, on child nutrition. When we examine the impact of PROGRESA based on the presumption of randomized allocations, we find that PROGRESA had no or even a negative impact on child nutrition. However, not all children designated to receive nutritional supplements actually did so. Our preferred estimates – child fixed-effects estimates that control for unobserved heterogeneity that is correlated with access to the supplement – indicate a significantly positive and fairly substantial programme effect of the nutritional supplements on children 12–36 months. They imply an increase of about a sixth in mean growth per year for these children and a lower probability of stunting. Effects are somewhat larger for children from poorer communities but whose mothers are functionally literate. The long-term consequences of these improvements are non-trivial; its impact working through adult height alone could result in a 2.9% increase in lifetime earnings.     

Informal employment and the earnings of home-based home care workers in the United States

Informal employment continues to exist in parallel with formal employment among the US home-based home care workers and undermines the workers' economic security. This study examines the extent to which the earnings of the US home-based home care workers are affected by informal employment arrangements and state labour policies designed to benefit low-wage home care workers. Using a sample of 1,318 home-based home care workers from the 2017 and 2018 Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey, this study found that (i) informally employed home-based home care workers had a 9% reduction in annual earnings and that (ii) their earnings were not improved by generous state minimum wages and Domestic Workers' Bill of Rights while the earnings of agency employees were. The findings highlight the importance of strong enforcement of labour standards for informally employed home care workers in the United States.     

The Effects of UI Benefits on Unemployment and Subsequent Outcomes: Evidence from a Kinked Benefit Rule

This paper analyses the effects of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment exits and subsequent labour market outcomes. We exploit a piecewise linear relationship between the previous wage and benefits in Finland to identify the causal effects of the benefit level by using a regression kink design. Although we only find weak evidence of an effect on the time to the next job, higher benefits decrease the time spent in part-time unemployment and thus result in more full-time unemployment. The re-employment probability and post-unemployment wage are also negatively affected. The results for the duration of the first post-unemployment job are not conclusive, but in total both employment and earnings in the two years following the beginning of the unemployment spell decrease with higher benefits.     

The Valuation-relevance of Earnings and Cash Flows: an International Perspective

We investigate which variable, earnings or cash flows, provides greater information for equity valuation within the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and Japan. We regress returns on earnings and cash flow metrics. We generally find earnings developed in three Anglo-Saxon countries—where capital is traditionally raised in public markets and reporting rules are unencumbered by taxation requirements—to have greater explanatory power for stock returns than cash flow metrics. Conversely, in two non-Anglo-Saxon countries—where capital is traditionally raised from private sources—earnings are generally not superior to cash flows for equity valuation, except in Japan, non-consolidated sample. While sensitivity analyses generally support the conclusions of our primary tests, in some of the additional analyses, earnings were superior to cash flows for samples from all countries. As expected, in all countries earnings have incremental information content over cash flows in explaining returns. Collectively, our findings provide two contributions. First, we generalize the findings of prior US research by showing that earnings are more important than cash flows for equity valuation in other Anglo-Saxon countries. Second and more importantly, our findings demonstrate that the superiority of earnings over cash flows is not universal. Rather, it depends on the national reporting regime and attendant institutional factors.     

民营上市公司CEO持股缓解了代理冲突吗？——基于真实活动盈余管理视角的分析

基于真实活动盈余管理视角,研究了我国民营上市公司CEO持股能否在一定程度上缓解代理冲突。研究发现：CEO持股能够抑制民营上市公司真实活动盈余管理,并且随着CEO持股比例的增加,真实活动盈余管理水平下降,说明CEO持股能够在一定程度上缓解投资者与企业管理层的代理冲突,实现协同效应;董事长与CEO两职兼任时,CEO持股对真实活动盈余管理的抑制效应会加强;深入研究发现,真实活动盈余管理对公司未来业绩产生不利影响,尤其是对企业长期业绩,而CEO持股能够降低真实活动盈余管理给公司业绩带来的负面效应。基于真实活动盈余管理,研究支持了我国民营上市公司CEO持股能够体现出一定的协同效应,缓解投资者与企业管理层的代理冲突。     

The impact of the National School Lunch Program on child health: A nonparametric bounds analysis

Children in households reporting the receipt of free or reduced-price school meals through the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) are more likely to have negative health outcomes than observationally similar nonparticipants. Assessing causal effects of the program is made difficult, however, by missing counterfactuals and systematic underreporting of program participation. Combining survey data with auxiliary administrative information on the size of the NSLP caseload, we extend nonparametric partial identification methods that account for endogenous selection and nonrandom classification error in a single framework. Similar to a regression discontinuity design, we introduce a new way to conceptualize the monotone instrumental variable (MIV) assumption using eligibility criteria as monotone instruments. Under relatively weak assumptions, we find evidence that the receipt of free and reduced-price lunches improves the health outcomes of children.     

Earnings Management and the Accrual Anomaly: Evidence from China

Using the unique Chinese setting in which the “delisting regulation” is based on accounting numbers, we separate earnings management into (1) earnings management responding to regulation and (2) earnings management prompted by market pressures and further document that earnings management responding to market pressures produces the accrual anomaly (Sloan, 1996) and earnings management responding to regulation does not. Initially unable to detect the accrual anomaly in China's stock market, we were reluctant to conclude that China's market is more efficient than that in the United States. After observing a disproportionate number of “big‐bath” loss firm‐years in the lowest decile of accruals for our sample, we estimated the apparent earnings distortion induced by the delisting regulation. When we excluded this distortion from our analysis, we documented the presence of the accrual anomaly in China's stock market. We conclude that the delisting regulation creates an artificial distribution of firm earnings in China that affects the market pricing of accruals and masks the accrual anomaly. The results have implications for policy makers and regulators in general, and those in emerging markets in particular.