Freight rates and productivity gains in British tramp shipping 1869-1950

The standard source for pre-WWII global freight rate trends is the Isserliss index. We think it is time for a new look at his British tramp shipping index, especially given his sources offer vastly more information than Isserliss used. Our new estimates confirm the precipitous decline in real freight rates before World War I, but we also extend them to 1997, a long period of relative stability. In an effort to identify the contribution of transport revolutions to global commodity price convergence, we create route-specific deflators, rather than relying on the Sauerbeck index. Finally, using the price-dual and new factor price indices, we calculate total factor productivity growth for five global routes, and then identify the sources of productivity growth along them.     

Regional wage convergence in Spain 1850–1930

This paper presents a new regional database on real wages for Spain from 1850 to 1930. This evidence is used to analyze the evolution of wages across regions and occupations. Substantial wage convergence occurred from 1850 to 1914, despite low rates of internal migration. World War I and the subsequent globalization backlash were associated with a spectacular increase in wage differentials. However, real wage convergence across Spanish provinces resumed during the 1920s, this time accompanied by high rates of internal migration.     

Dry bulk shipping and the evolution of maritime transport costs, 1850–2020

We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyse a new dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant.     

Peasant shipping as a profitable trade

Abstract

Finnish peasant shipping has so far only been discussed in books on local history and in a few rather brief specialised articles dealing with the earlier centuries. Consequently, Dr. Kaukiainen's academic dissertation, published in the spring of 1970, is virtually a pioneering study. He has chosen the period from the Swedish Russian War of 1808-09 to the Crimean War; this was fortunate because Finland was compelled by its new political alignment partly to re-route its shipping.     

基于GM（1,1）模型群的重庆货运量预测研究

货运量是货运市场体系中的重要统计指标,预测货运量发展趋势是制定货运发展战略的前提和基础。文章根据重庆市货运发展状况,收集了重庆2001-2011年货运量的数据,采用GM(1,1)模型群对重庆市货运量进行模拟、预测。经过模型精度检验,最后选择等维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型对未来四年内的重庆货运量进行预测。     

The importance of ‘natural’ barriers to trade among developing countries: Some evidence from the transport cost content in Brazilian imports

The paper applies a cif/fob import value comparison of Brazilian imports in order to check the argument of freight rate advantages for North-South shipping against South-South shipping in competing products and to estimate the relation between freight rates and tariff rates in total nominal protection of Brazil against imports from developing countries.The findings suggest that a freight rate advantage for North-South shipping exists in manufactured products, being significant for three of eight analysed regional trade flows. The second result is that tariff rates hamper Brazillian imports from developing countries much more than do freight rates.     

钢铁产品汽运价格制定策略研究

对首钢京唐公司近年来制定钢铁产品汽运价格的策略进行了分析,指出现行定价方式的不足,并依据京唐公司前期积累的数据和经验,对影响汽运成本的因素进行量化分析,提出汽运价格模拟测算法则,为汽运价格决策提供一种合理量化的参考依据。     

基于百度指数的公路运价指数RO-ELM预测

公路运价指数是公路运输市场波动的衡量指标,对中国的公路运输业有重要的预示功能.利用极限学习机(ELM)的神经网络模型快速、低成本预测公路运价指数.以各百度指数与公路运价指数的相关性确定各分量对公路运价指数的影响,进而利用ADF平稳性检验与Johansen协整检验构建输入序列,最后运用时域优化思想优化输入变量,在ELM神经网络模型内输出预测值.结果表明:基于滚动窗口的ELM模型的MAPE与RMSE分别为1.85％ 与25.17,比单一ELM模型在平均绝对百分比误差和均方根误差上都有提升,预测结果与指数波动相符,可以为公路运价指数的走向提供决策参考.     

The growing dependence of Britain on trade during the Industrial Revolution

Many previous studies of the role of trade during the British Industrial Revolution have found little or no role for trade in explaining British living standards or growth rates. We construct a three-region model of the world in which Britain trades with North America and the Rest of the World, and calibrate the model to data from the 1760s and 1850s. We find that while trade had only a small impact on British welfare in the 1760s, it had a very large impact in the 1850s. This contrast is robust to a large range of parameter perturbations. Biased technological change and population growth were key in explaining Britain's growing dependence on trade during the Industrial Revolution.     

Price Fluctuations and Growth Patterns in Singapore's Trade, 1831–1913

Using a newly created trade price index, this paper determines the real growth rate of Singapore's trade during 1831–1913. We find that Singapore's trade grew between 1831 and 1873 at a higher rate than during the later period. An analysis of the terms of trade and purchasing power parity reveals that the growth pattern of Singapore's entrepôt trade changed after 1850 from growth fuelled by transit trade of industrial products to balanced growth between regional imports and exports. This change resulted from the operation of the international monetary system, which enhanced market integration between Britain and Southeast Asia via Singapore.     

Immigration quotas,World War I,and emigrant flows from the United States in the early 20th century

Little is known about international return migration because governments rarely track out-migrants. However, one exception occurred early in the 20th century when the United States kept records of emigrants. Using within-country changes in quota allocations in 1921, 1924, and 1929 in combination with 1908–1932 data on specific countries of intended destination of the emigrants, we estimate the effect of quotas on (1) out-migration rates, (2) emigration across skill groups, and (3) the duration of temporary migrants' stays in the U.S. Higher quota restrictions reduced emigration rates, mostly for unskilled laborers and farmers. Higher quota restrictions also increased duration of stay, as the share of migrants staying less than 5 years fell and the share staying 5 to 10 years rose. Return migration behavior was also associated with changes in previous immigrant cohort's networks and savings. Return migration rates were also low during World War I, and more significant population losses from the War in home countries discouraged return migration. Finally, out-migration of German migrants increased substantially during the 1920s.     

The Swedish Salt Market during the Great Northern War

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to examine the effects of the great naval blockade on the Swedish salt market during the Great Northern War (1700–1721). Whether or not salt can be perceived as a strategic good subject of wartime shortage is important in interpreting the reasons behind the famous Swedish Navigation Act of 1724. New research claims that the Navigation Act was a welfare enhancing institution, as it helped to secure salt imports. This essay shows that although Sweden was at war with most European Great Powers and the subject of sea blockades during the Great Northern War, the salt market still worked remarkably well. Neither supply nor salt movements show any signs of a great crisis. Thus, there was no need to secure salt imports during the period of peace that followed. Consequently, the Swedish Navigation Act had little to do with welfare but more with rent seeking and monopolies on the freight market.     

A long view of real rates

In light of the large and sustained rise in real interest ratesin the late 1970s and early 1980s, this paper reviews: (i) thetheoretical discussion on the determination of nominal and realinterest rates; (ii) the factors determining real interest rates;and (iii) problems of defining and measuring the real rate.We go on to examine the historical record of real interest ratesin France, Germany, the UK, and the USA since 1875. We findthat high real rates since 1980 seem to be a return to a long-runnorm, and it is the period from the Second World War to 1979that represents a more natural period in which to investigatean abrupt change of behaviour for real interest rates.     

Central bank intervention and exchange rate dynamics: A rationale for the regime-switching process of exchange rates

By proposing a stochastic intervention model of exchange rate determination, this paper provides an alternative rationale for the success of the Markov-switching model in explaining exchange rate dynamics. One extreme case is a pure floating rate model while the other extreme one is a driftless random walk model. The relation between the exchange rate and the future fundamentals under a non-intervention state is looser than the one under a pure floating exchange regime. This article also provides a method for detecting a central bank's interventions when intervention data are not available. Applying the stochastic intervention model to the monthly NT$/US$ exchange rates in 1989M1–2004M6, we find that it outperforms both the pure floating rate model and the random walk model in terms of the likelihood value and the diagnostic test of heteroscedasticity. In addition, with the constructed intervention state index in this article, the estimation of the stochastic intervention model is found to be consistent with the hypothesis that the regime switches of exchange rates are due to a central bank's (non-)interventions. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (1) (2007) 64–77.     

Coal exports and British shipping, 1850–1913

We export of British coal was a major feature of late 19th-century ocean shipping. It has often been argued that British coal was key to the success of British shipping, but close examination raises doubts. Most British coal went to European ports where British ships carried a smaller proportion of the trade than they did in more distant trades. Shared costs between outward and homeward freights created an important relationship between coal freight rates and the freight rates on imports into northwestern Europe. In general, however, there seems to be little connection between Britain's shipping success and the export of coal.     

Why clashes between internal and external stability goals end in currency crises, 1797–1994

We argue that recent currency crises reflect clashes between fundamentals and pegged exchange rates, just as did crises in the past. We reject the view that crises reflect self-fulfilling prophecies that are not closely related to measured fundamentals. Doubts about the timing of a market attack on a currency are less important than the fact that it is bound to happen if a government's policies are inconsistent with pegged exchange rates. We base these conclusions on a review of currency crises in the historical record under metallic monetary regimes and of crises post-World War II under Bretton Woods, and since, in European and Latin American pegged exchange rate regimes.     

Regional disparity and economic growth in China: The impact of labor market distortions

The paper tries to analyze China's regional disparity in a framework of convergence in neoclassical theory of growth. We employ comparative productivity of agricultural labor as an index of labor market distortion to see the impact of difference of labor market maturity among regions on regional growth performance, controlling for a set of variables determining growth rate. The finding is that (1) there is an evidence of conditional convergence in China's growth, namely, per capita GDP in the initiative year is negatively related to growth rates in following years, (2) labor market distortion negatively impacts regional growth rates, and (3) many other variables used at previous studies impact growth performance, as is expected by neoclassical theory of growth.     

Consumer Prices and Expenditure Patterns in Australia 1850–1914

A consumer price index is estimated for Australia for the period 1850 to 1914. This required the derivation of expenditure weights, permitting in turn comparisons of changes in the composition of expenditure patterns both across time and with nineteenth-century United States evidence. Several variants of the price index were compiled to suit different uses as well as to assess the sensitivity of price movements to reasonable changes in estimation methods. No major differences in these variants were observed over the long run. In the 1890s and 1900s, however, significant short-run differences in price movements exist between variants of the CPI.