Wage inflation and labour conflicts in the Netherlands : An empirical investigation using the co-integration approach

The ‘wage space’, which is defined as the sum of price inflation and labour productivity growth, has played a major role as an indicator of allowable wage increases in the post-war wage negotiations in the Netherlands. This paper shows that: (a) wages and the wage space are co-integrated; (b) the deviation between wages and the wage space may act as an error correction term in the wage equation when both variables are identified as I(2); and (c) political consensus and the threat of labour conflicts (rather than actual strike activity) may be identified as the ‘mechanism’ behind this error correction in the wage equation.     

Corporate Tournaments, Human Capital Acquisition, and the Firm Size–Wage Relation

This paper provides a possible explanation for the empirically observed size–wage effect and inter-industry wage differences. It develops a model in which incentives for workers to accumulate general human capital are provided by corporate tournaments, where workers with the highest level of general human capital win promotions. Given that the prizes in such tournaments are determined by outside market conditions, the investment and the equilibrium wages depend on firm and industry characteristics. The model implies that workers in bigger firms and in more technology intensive and profitable firms and industries acquire more human capital and receive higher wages and benefits.     

Involuntary unemployment,macroeconomic policy,and a behavioral model of the firm: Why high real wages need not cause high unemployment

The perspective of modern macroeconomic theory, be it new classical or old and new Keynesian, is that unemployment can be reduced only if real wages are cut. The modern Keynesians, basing themselves upon the microfoundations of efficiency wage theory, argue that real wages cannot and will not be cut by firms for efficiency wage reasons. This generates involuntary unemployment based on a market coordination problem. A behavioral model that contrasts with efficiency wage theory is presented here which suggests that reducing real wages need not affect the marginal cost of labor and, therefore, the number of individuals employed. In the behavioral model, wherein there exists some linearity in the relationship between real wages and working conditions and labor productivity, a lower real wage rate is not a necessary condition for reducing the unemployment rate nor is a higher real wage an obstacle to reducing it. In this scenario, unemployment, to the extent that it is demand-side induced, is not related to movements in real wages. Therefore, restoring full employment after a negative demand shock becomes a matter for demand management, not demand management that must be coordinated with measures designed to reduce real wages.     

Towards a More Complete Efficiency Wage Theory

The efficiency wage is an important topic in the theory of employment. In a traditional efficiency wage model, only the representative firm is optimizing against an assumed S‐shaped effort supply function. This S‐shaped supply curve is critical for the model and the absence of a derivation of the curve in the literature means that it is an incomplete theory. In the present paper, we extend the model by specifying a worker's representative utility function so that the corresponding argmax function will be the S‐shaped effort supply curve. This will make the worker's decision process endogenous and will produce a more complete model. The importance of this extension is clear. The characterization of the utility function will make explicit the necessary conditions and crucial assumptions of the traditional model. More importantly, the extension will allow researchers to introduce employment compensation factors into the worker's utility function for analysis. This has important bearings on future development in employment theory. For example, a worker's satisfaction from shirking (net of dismissal risks), or his or her willingness to search for jobs (net of search cost), can now be included in his or her utility function to form an optimal work or search strategy. Incorporating the worker's optimization behaviour into the model will also enable researchers to study policy directed not just towards firms but also towards the worker's decision process. Furthermore, this approach provides a framework for researchers to generate comparative statics. These comparative statics can lead to interesting topics for econometric models or to further research within this field.     

The effect of labor market monopsony on economic growth

In this endogenous growth model, a minimum efficient scale of production and workers’ home-to-work travel costs combine to give firms monopsony power, and this monopsony power leads to slower growth. Monopsony drives the wage below the marginal product of labor. This lower wage leads to lower investment in human capital and thereby to a lower growth rate. This makes investment in human capital – and therefore the growth rate – suboptimal. We provide evidence from a cross-country panel to support our model: Urbanization, which we assume is determined by a country’s exogenous population density and cropland area, positively impacts the wage share of output; the wage share positively impacts educational attainment; higher-income countries have higher wage shares; and within-country upticks in the wage share have a positive lagged effect on the growth rate.     

Promotion tournaments in market equilibrium

This paper studies how promotion tournaments motivate workers to accumulate human capital when wages are constrained by outside labor markets. Patient firms can retain some control over tournament prizes through a relational contract, but if the firms are competitive, full efficiency does not obtain in equilibrium even for discount factors arbitrarily close to one. Full efficiency, however, may be feasible in firms with superior technologies; thus, technological efficiency breeds incentive efficiency. The paper also shows that a wage floor leads to insufficient human capital investment in competitive firms, but could lead to excessive investment in technologically superior firms.     

Tobin's q, investment, and the endogenous adjustment of financial structure

Should q theory be modified to take account of financial structure? This paper analyzes a general equilibrium q model where financial structure affects firm value. Agency costs and taxes combine to yield an interior solution for the endogenous debt–equity ratio. Although q is still a ‘sufficient statistic’ for investment, the endogenous adjustment of financial structure alters the relation between the interest rate and investment. In this model an increase in the corporate tax rate could either raise or lower the steady-state capital stock. Furthermore, both q and investment could jump in opposite directions to that of their steady-state values.     

Privatization and efficiency wages

The impact of privatization is investigated in a shirking model of efficiency wages. Without trade unions, privatization — modeled as a stricter control of employees — lowers wages and raises employment, output, and profits, while effort and productivity effects depend on the employees' risk aversion. However, for a utilitarian monopoly union, facing a company characterized by a constant-elasticity labor-demand schedule, privatization raises efficiency wages. If privatization is modeled as a stronger profit orientation, wages, effort, and labor productivity will rise, while employment will shrink in a wage-setting firm. Again, wage and employment effects can be reversed in the case of wage negotiations.     

STICKY WAGE, EFFICIENCY WAGE AND KEYNESIAN UNEMPLOYMENT

Abstract.  This paper provides a model of involuntary unemployment by combining the insights of the sticky wage theory and the efficiency wage theory. It implies that employed workers tend to supply more effort in response to economic downturns. Thus, a negative shock to an economy has intriguing impacts on the unemployment. The model also shows that a negative demand shock may have a relatively small effect on output since changes in work effort serve to partially mitigate the effects of the shock. Moreover, it yields some implications that complement the existing 'work sharing' literature.     

Excess supply equilibria

This paper addresses a fundamental problem in economic theory: How can there be equilibria of the economic system where some commodity is in excess supply, yet that commodity's relative price shows no tendency to fall? Of course, the principal example of such a phenomenon is an economy experiencing a prolonged period of involuntary unemployment of the labor force during which there is no significant change in the real wage.In the following pages, I shall describe a two-commodity, general equilibrium model that has a continuum of unemployment equilibria, one for any given unemployment rate. The important feature of this model is that workers establish their wage rates in an attempt to maximize expected utility. The information upon which these wage setting decisions are based is provided by actual labor market transactions.Despite the voluntary nature of the wage setting decision, I shall argue that each equilibrium of this economy exhibits involuntary unemployment in the Keynesian sense. For there will always be another equilibrium with a lower real wage, a higher level of employment, and at which (at least when workers are risk neutral) each worker achieves a higher level of expected utility.     

Search, mismatch and unemployment

This paper explores the efficiency of the equilibrium allocation in a matching model with heterogeneous workers and jobs. In the basic setup there are two types of workers with different skill levels. Both types can perform the simple tasks of unskilled jobs, while the complex tasks of skilled jobs require a high-ability worker. We demonstrate that the equilibrium outcome with random search and ex-post bargaining is never efficient. Under the Hosios condition, the average wage is correct, but bargaining compresses the wage distribution relative to workers’ shadow values. This feature distorts the relative profits of jobs, making it too attractive for firms to create skilled jobs. Furthermore, due to the low-skill premium, the high-ability workers may accept too many jobs. Finally, in an extension, we show that the introduction of separate markets for the two types of jobs is not sufficient to guarantee efficiency.     

Regionalization, public spending and growth: a stylized model dealing with ‘predatory states’

In this paper, a micro-founded model analyzing the effects of ‘regionalization’ on economic activity is developed. It shows that the spatial division of public competencies can have an impact on the growth rate via the efficiency of governmental choices: initially advantageous for weak levels, decentralization (/reduction of regional size) becomes limited due to the risk of underestimation of the real profitability of public expenditure by local governments (non-internalized cross-border effects). In accordance with the theory, a transversal estimation for a sample of 51 countries for the 1990s establishes a ‘bell-shaped’ relation between indicators of regionalization and the quality of governance.     

我国最低工资的制度逻辑——一个政治经济学的解读框架

最低工资制度从诞生时起就备受争议.主流经济学家反对的主要理由是,最低工资是对劳动力市场的价格管制,会导致失业率上升,经济效率下降.尽管这一结论并未完全得到实证检验的支持,但是作为一个正在崛起的发展中大国,效率和就业自然是我们首要关注的.理论和现实说明,我国目前并不具备最低工资的实施环境,那么政府为什么还要推行最低工资制度呢?本文提供了一个政治经济学的解读框架.     

Strategic Interactions of Monetary Policymakers and Wage/Price Bargainers: A Review with Implications for the European Common-Currency Area

This paper reviews recent work on macroeconomic management with varying organization of wage/price bargaining and degrees of credible monetary conservatism. The emerging literature synthesizes and extends theory and empirics on central bank independence (CBI) and coordinated wage/price bargaining (CWB), arguing that the degrees of CBI and CWB interact with each other and with other political-economic conditions (sectoral composition, international exposure, etc.) to structure the incentives facing actors involved in monetary policy and wage/price bargaining. The core implication, theoretically surprising but empirically supported, is that even perfectly credible monetary conservatism has long-run, equilibrium, on-average real effects, even with fully rational expectations, and that these effects depend on the organization of wage/price bargaining. Conversely, wage/price-bargaining structure has real effects that depend on the degree of credible conservatism reflected in monetary-policy rules. Each also has interactive nominal effects though this is less surprising. Some disagreement remains over the precise nature of these interactive effects, but all emerging theory and evidence agree that a common, credibly conservative European monetary policy has nominal and real effects that depend on the Europe-wide institutional-structural organization of wage/price bargaining. Indeed, the one specific piece of theoretical and empirical agreement suggests that, for many member countries, the nominal gains from monetary-policy delegation to a credibly conservative European Central Bank will worsen these bargaining-policy interactions.     

垄断政府人员臃肿与工资刚性的经济学剖析

通过建立垄断政府工资成本最小化的最优规划模型发现，从政府官员总量角度看，政府机构不存在人员臃肿、人浮于事。但是，在官员资历工资制占主导地位的政府最优决策路径上，从政府官员构成角度看，政府机构存在人员冗余、工作低效率等情形，并且在政府最优决策路径上，资历工资制度将进一步强化官员工资刚性，扭曲垄断政府劳动力需求曲线；政府官员工资率与官员规模同步增长，从而，垄断政府机构中人员臃肿、人浮于事与高工资成本等现象并存。因此，资历工资是导致垄断政府各种弊病的根源，重建政府官员工资制度应成为垄断政府改革焦点与核心。     

Dissertation Abstract: Decision-Theoretic Models of Market Equilibration

There has been a surprising dearth of decision-theoretic approaches to market equilibration within the extended Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie framework. While game theory is replete with learning and evolutionary models in which Nash equilibria are not necessarily the only stable states of a game, general equilibrium theorists have generally been content to accept the attainment of competitive equilibrium as a matter of faith. The first two chapters of this dissertation advance the study of behaviorally plausible models of market equilibration. First, we develop the epsilon-intelligent competitive equilibrium algorithm. According to this model, the actions of minimally sophisticated agents based on local information will lead an exchange economy to approximate competitive equilibrium in a larger set of economics than Walras’ tatonnement. The algorithm also supports a behavioral interpretation of Negishi’s existence proof of competitive equilibrium. The second chapter is an empirical analysis of laboratory markets designed to test the extent to which human behavior is consistent with the algorithm’s behavioral restrictions, and suggest alternative hypotheses. The chief finding is that while subjects sufficiently sophisticated to consistently secure competitive utility for themselves exist, the majority are satisficers who follow small modifications of a simple utility-improvement rule.While general equilibrium theory has lacked a behaviorally plausible foundation of price equilibration, behavioral economic models typically ignore general equilibrium implications. In the third chapter of this dissertation, I present the surprising result that loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity for gains imply a greater redistribution of endowments than when otherwise identical preferences are reference-independent. The result is surprising because loss aversion was developed in part to account for the status quo bias, whereby people tend to value a good more when it is in their possession than when it is not. One might reasonably suspect trade to be inhibited by this bias. The counter-intuitive result is driven by the fact that, given the axiomatization of loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity for gains, the acquisition of some quantity of a good increases one’s taste for that good, thus perpetuating a taste for more trade.     

How competitiveness may cause a gender wage gap: Experimental evidence

We show that choices in competitive behavior may entail a gender wage gap. In our experiments, employees first choose a remuneration scheme (competitive tournament vs. piece rate) and then conduct a real-effort task. Employers know the pie size the employee has generated, the remuneration scheme chosen, and the employee׳s gender. Employers then decide how the pie will be split, as in a dictator game. Whereas employers do not discriminate by gender when tournaments are chosen, they take substantially and significantly more from female employees who choose piece-rate remuneration. A discriminatory wage gap occurs which cannot be attributed to employees׳ performance.     

Multiple Wage Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area

Little attention in the EMU literature has been paid to the interaction between centralbank monetary rules and systems of collective wage bargaining. Analytically andempirically, coordinated wage bargaining systems respond with real wage restraintto non-accommodating monetary policy. Since wage determination is dominated bycollective bargaining in all the EMU member states and wage coordination within themember states has grown since 1980, this is a topic of potential importance. In particular, the replacement of the Bundesbank, directly targeting German inflation, by an ECB targeting European inflation has removed a major institutional support of wage restraint in Germany. The consequences of this for EMU are worked out under two scenarios, that inflation expectations will be generated by ECB monetary policy and that they will reflect German inflation outcomes. Possible institutional developments are discussed including government-union bargains. The Bundesbank has also played a major role in maintaining fiscal rectitude by targeting excess fiscal deficits in Germany: again its replacement by the ECB – targeting (if at all) European rather than German fiscal policy – loosens fiscal constraints. For underlying structural reasons therefore, it is possible that Germany and other EMU countries will move to a period of fiscal activism with wage restraint and low inflation purchased through social contract negotiations.     

A Monte Carlo study on the pitfalls in determining deterministic components in cointegrating models

Recently the use of the so-called ‘Pantula principle’ has been suggested as a means of determining deterministic components in cointegrating models (see Ahking in Journal of Macroeconomics 24, 2002, and Hatemi-J in Economic Modelling 19, 2002). Moreover, the procedure is suggested in the widely used CATS in RATS program (see [Hansen, H., Juselius, K., 1995. CATS in RATS. Estima, United States]). In this paper, we examine, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, the properties of the ‘Pantula principle’. We investigate the five models contained within the Johansen methodology and find that the ‘Pantula principle’ is heavily biased towards choosing the model with an unrestricted constant when the model with a restricted trend is the true one. We suggest a modification that reduces this bias to an important extent.