Land Development: Risk, Return and Risk Management

We model and examine the financial aspects of the land development process incorporating the industry practice of preselling lots to builders through the use of option contracts as a risk management technique. Using contingent claims valuation, we are able to determine endogenously the land value, presale option value, credits spreads and the effects of presales on debt pricing and equity expected returns. We show that using presales options effectively shift market risk from the land developer to the builder. Results from the model are consistent with the high rates of return on equity observed in empirical surveys; they also suggest that developers may be justified in pursuing projects with substantially lower expected returns to equity when a large number of lots can be presold. Additionally, we show that presales reduce default risk dramatically for leveraged projects and can support a considerable reduction in the cost of construction financing. Large debt risk premiums are justified for highly levered projects, which helps explain the use of mezzanine financing in the land development industry to reduce expected default costs.

交易账户新增风险:定义、资本计算及启示

此次金融危机引发了人们对风险管理和计量的反思。此次金融危机,有一个很大的不同之处就是当前的金融活动中出现了带有多种风险特征的产品或业务,而新增风险正是基于这种考虑而提出的。本文对新增风险定义的演变进行了梳理,指出了新增风险的特征;总结了其风险计量的基本要素,比较了风险计量的不同方法。     

混沌意义下的金融风险:定义与判断依据

本文以杜芬模型为例对金融体系的动力学特征进行了分析,提出在混沌意义下系统金融风险是指金融系统运行状态的失衡与无序,将系统风险存在问题与金融体系是否处在混沌状态统一起来,为判断系统金融风险的存在以及判定金融系统风险向金融危机演化临界值问题提供进一步研究的基础。并根据金融系统所表现出来的非线性动力学特征,提出用李雅普诺夫指数作为系统金融风险存在的判据。     

“流程银行”的战略认知与组织模式研究

流程银行是当前国际先进银行普遍采用的经营管理模式,本文对流程银行的战略内涵进行了分析,并探讨了相应的组织模式。     

内部控制、风险控制与风险管理——基于组织目标的概念解说与思想演进

COSO报告(2004)认为内部控制是风险管理的组成部分。但是,内部控制与风险管理在功能和内涵上究竟是什么关系,这方面的研究并不充分。本文从组织目标出发,对内部控制、风险控制以及风险管理三者之间的关系进行了基本的概念解说,并从历史变迁的角度,研究了内部控制、风险控制和风险管理三者的思想内涵及其演进过程。     

操作风险管理体制：框架、模式与建构

从理论上讲,一个完整全面的操作风险管理框架至少应该在理论上包括风险管理战略、风险管理流程、基础设施和风险管理环境等四个组成部分。从实践上看,国际上形成了三种比较典型的各具特色的有关操作风险管理体制模式,对于中国各商业银行操作风险管理体制的建构,具有借鉴价值。     

Risk Management, Risk Capital, and the Cost of Capital

In a recent JACF article, Prakash Shimpi proposed a new way of calculating a firm's cost of capital that incorporated a concept of "risk capital" as well as operational capital. The premise of the Shimpi approach was that purchasing hedging instruments effectively "releases" equity that is no longer needed to ensure the firm's creditworthiness.
This article shows that Shimpi's cost of capital calculations incorporate this released equity in a misleading way, exaggerating the capital base and underestimating its true cost. It also demonstrates how conventional cost of capital approaches can be modified to integrate risk capital, thereby avoiding such distortions and accurately representing the cost of capital of a company with a policy of active risk management.     

United Grain Growers: Enterprise Risk Management and Weather Risk

In August of 1999, Mike McAndless, the risk manager of United Grain Growers (UGG), was preparing for a meeting with the firm's chief financial officer, Peter Cox. Mike and Peter had spent considerable time over the past three years with representatives of the Willis Group Ltd., a large international insurance broker, identifying and measuring UGG's major sources of risk. The risk assessment process indicated that, although UGG hedged most of its currency and commodity price risk and purchased insurance against property and liability losses, the firm's earnings still exhibited substantial volatility. This volatility was, in large part, due to the weather. Mike and Peter had to decide whether to retain the risk or shift it to another party using one of two innovative contractual arrangements: weather derivatives or a new type of insurance contract.     

Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure

The joint determination of capital structure and investment risk is examined. Optimal capital structure reflects both the tax advantages of debt less default costs (Modigliani and Miller (1958, 1963)), and the agency costs resulting from asset substitution (Jensen and Meckling (1976)). Agency costs restrict leverage and debt maturity and increase yield spreads, but their importance is small for the range of environments considered. Risk management is also examined. Hedging permits greater leverage. Even when a firm cannot precommit to hedging, it will still do so. Surprisingly, hedging benefits often are greater when agency costs are low.     

税收风险管理与银行风险管理的比较分析及其启示

以债权债务关系、信用基础为起点,对税收风险管理和银行风险管理的风险性质、风险管理发展历史、风险管理理念和目标进行了比较分析,指出了税收风险管理和银行风险管理的诸多相似之处;进而提出了借鉴商业银行风险管理的成果和经验,在组织架构、量化管理技术、流程再造、风险预警、内部控制、数据质量、压力测试等方面对税收风险管理体系建设的启示。     

内部控制、公司治理、风险管理:关系与整合

为了控制企业可能存在的风险,在企业的发展过程中,相继产生了内部控制、公司治理和风险管理等框架。关于三者关系理论界和实务界一直都在进行争论,但时至今日并未达成统一的认识,特别伴随COSO《企业风险管理——整体框架》的发布以及我国财政部《企业内部控制规范——基本规范》的出台,三者关系的讨论就不仅仅是理论问题,而是实践中必须要解决的问题了。本文从历史回顾和逻辑推理的角度,探讨了三者本质的相同性,以此为基础,对三者进行了整合,构建了基于风险管理的整合框架。这既避免了企业管理体系的交叉、重复,又实现了各种管理体系的一体化。     

Enterprise Risk Management: Theory and Practice

The Chief Risk Officer of Nationwide Insurance teams up with a distinguished academic to discuss the benefits and challenges associated with the design and implementation of an enterprise risk management program. The authors begin by arguing that a carefully designed ERM program—one in which all material corporate risks are viewed and managed within a single framework—can be a source of long‐run competitive advantage and value through its effects at both a “macro” or company‐wide level and a “micro” or business‐unit level. At the macro level, ERM enables senior management to identify, measure, and limit to acceptable levels the net exposures faced by the firm. By managing such exposures mainly with the idea of cushioning downside outcomes and protecting the firm's credit rating, ERM helps maintain the firm's access to capital and other resources necessary to implement its strategy and business plan. At the micro level, ERM adds value by ensuring that all material risks are “owned,” and risk‐return tradeoffs carefully evaluated, by operating managers and employees throughout the firm. To this end, business unit managers at Nationwide are required to provide information about major risks associated with all new capital projects—information that can then used by senior management to evaluate the marginal impact of the projects on the firm's total risk. And to encourage operating managers to focus on the risk‐return tradeoffs in their own businesses, Nationwide's periodic performance evaluations of its business units attempt to refl ect their contributions to total risk by assigning risk‐adjusted levels of “imputed” capital on which project managers are expected to earn adequate returns. The second, and by far the larger, part of the article provides an extensive guide to the process and major challenges that arise when implementing ERM, along with an account of Nationwide's approach to dealing with them. Among other issues, the authors discuss how a company should assess its risk “appetite,” measure how much risk it is bearing, and decide which risks to retain and which to transfer to others. Consistent with the principle of comparative advantage it uses to guide such decisions, Nationwide attempts to limit “non‐core” exposures, such as interest rate and equity risk, thereby enlarging the firm's capacity to bear the “information‐intensive, insurance‐ specific” risks at the core of its business and competencies.     

盈余管理、信息风险与审计意见

盈余管理和信息风险是影响审计意见的两个重要因素。已有研究主要关注当期盈余管理与审计意见的关系,少有关注信息风险对审计意见的影响。本文运用我国上市公司的数据,同时研究盈余管理和信息风险对审计意见的影响。检验结果表明,公司的信息风险与审计师出具非标意见概率显著正相关,而当期盈余管理与审计师出具非标意见的概率无显著相关性。这表明,审计师出具审计意见时主要考虑信息风险,而没有证据表明审计师出具审计意见时考虑了盈余管理。本文的研究结论深化了已有审计意见和审计质量决定因素方面的研究。     

金融市场风险传染路径及管控

2018年中央经济工作会议指出:今后三年重点防范化解重大风险,重中之重防控金融风险,打击违法违规金融活动,加强薄弱环节监督管制,以达到金融和实体经济、房地产以及金融体系内部的良性循环。金融市场错综复杂,其存在的风险更是多种多样,金融市场的安全关乎着国家的安全和社会经济稳定,防范和化解金融网络中的风险是保持我国经济可持续发展的重中之重。     

董事网络:定义、特征和计量

董事的行为镶嵌于社会网络,本文定义了"董事通过在董事会同时任职建立的直接和间接联结关系"而形成的董事网络,并从"结点"和"关系"两个维度界定了董事网络的边界;基于社会学的镶嵌理论、弱联结优势理论、结构洞理论和社会资本理论分析了其社会网络特征,也利用社会网络分析方法对董事的网络中心程度进行了计量;最后简析了独立董事在我国上市公司董事网络中的核心地位和如何基于董事网络对独立董事治理行为展开研究。本研究可为我国"社会网络和公司治理"交叉研究的展开提供一定的理论基础。     

宏观审慎监管:定义、工具与实践

2008年的全球会融危机引发了人们对金融监管的反思,宏观审慎监管已成为当前金融研究的热点.本文在总结理论与实践两方面研究成果的基础上,阐述了宏观审慎监管的定义、特点和原则,并从资本、风险、杠杆和机制四个方丽总结了宏观审慎监管的主要工具,指出中国构建宏观审慎监管体系的原则,并提出了中国下一步应采取的宏观审慎监管措施.     

中外资银行风险管理：趋势、差距与对策

研究中外银行业风险管理的差异性,学习国际大银行在风险管理方面的先进经验,建立和完善中资银行风险管理机制,这对于加强我国金融体系的稳定性、提高中资银行的国际竞争力、保证中国银行体系健康成长具有十分重要的意义.