Industry Wages Across Countries and Over Time: A New Database of Micro Survey Data

This paper presents a newly collected database on industry wages. The underlying data are micro datasets collected through nationally representative household surveys which are mostly conducted by national statistical agencies. In comparison with wage measures based on macroeconomic data sources, we find that industry wages based on micro survey data are more reliable. Furthermore, data from nationally representative micro surveys are becoming increasingly available, thus allowing for better coverage, especially of low‐income countries. The database provides a reliable source of data for research on inter‐industry wage structures and gender wage differentials, across countries and over time. It may also serve as a basis for further research on the determinants and implications of inter‐industry and gender wage variations.     

International Trade and Inter‐Industry Wage Structure in Swedish Manufacturing: Evidence from Matched Employer–Employee Data*

This study examines the inter‐industry wage structure in Swedish manufacturing, using matched employer–employee data for the period 1996 to 2000. First, we used detailed individual and job characteristics to estimate industry‐specific and time‐varying wage premiums. Secondly, we investigated the impact of international trade on wage premiums, controlling for effects of domestic competition and technical progress. Our results suggest that industries that face intensive import competition from low‐income countries have lower wage premiums. Surprisingly, the wage premiums are not related to export intensities. Furthermore, technical progress, measured by investment in R&D activity, appears to enhance inter‐industry wage premiums.     

RISING WAGES: HAS CHINA LOST ITS GLOBAL LABOR ADVANTAGE?

We document dramatic rising wages in China for the period 1978–2007 based on multiple sources of aggregate statistics. Although real wages increased seven‐fold during the period, growth was uneven across ownership types, industries and regions. Over the past decade, the wages of state‐owned enterprises have increased rapidly and wage disparities between skill‐intensive and labour‐intensive industries have widened. Comparisons of international data show that China's manufacturing wage has already converged to that of Asian emerging markets, but China still enjoys enormous labour cost advantages over its neighbouring developed economies. Our analysis suggests that China's wage growth will stabilize to a moderate pace in the near future.     

Macroeconomics of directed credit reforms in India

This paper develops a theoretical framework to evaluate directed credit reforms in India. It formulates a post-Keynesian/structuralist macro model that incorporates key features of the Indian banking system. The model divides the economy into a demand constrained industrial sector and a credit constrained agricultural sector. The model shows that directed credit reforms tighten agricultural credit and output, erode real wages by increasing the agricultural price and reduce industrial demand. Inflation also picks up on account of real wage resistance. This paper, therefore, has a close affinity with existing accounts that warn against the stagflationary consequences of financial liberalisation.     

The responsiveness of industry wages to low‐frequency shocks in Canada

Abstract The first objective of this paper is to examine the empirical relationship between low‐frequency shocks to labour demand and average wages on an industrial basis using a Canadian longitudinal data set. We estimate a fixed‐effects model that controls for workers’ unobservable attributes. The second major objective is to extend the existing industry‐based literature by estimating a specification allowing for a comparison between the degree of wage responsiveness of within‐firm stayers and between‐firm movers. The findings indicate that average wages by industry tend to respond positively to low frequency changes in employment, and that there is some degree of wage flexibility within firm‐worker matches.     

HOW DO MINIMUM WAGE ADJUSTMENTS AFFECT WAGES IN CHINA: EVIDENCE BASED ON ADMINISTRATIVE PERSONAL INCOME TAX DATA

By using unique administrative personal income tax data covering the population of a middle‐sized Chinese city from 2009 to 2013, we explore how minimum wage adjustments affect wages of low‐wage workers. The empirical evidence documented in this paper suggests a unique pattern of minimum wage regulation: while it permits wages to stay below the prevailing minimum wage threshold temporarily, it does encourage a higher growth rate for wages below the threshold. Overall, such a pattern might help lessen any downward pressures on employment, while ensuring that low‐wage earners gradually get better off over time. (JEL J3, J6, P5)     

Wage inequality in Turkey, 2002–10

This paper studies the evolution of wage inequality in Turkey using household labour force survey data from 2002 to 2010. Between 2002 and 2004, the relative supply of more‐educated workers to less‐educated workers remained constant while their relative wages decreased in favour of less‐educated workers. However, between 2004 and 2010, the relative supply of more‐educated workers to less‐educated workers rose, while their relative wages remained constant or kept increasing in favour of more‐educated workers. This suggests factors other than those implied by a simple supply‐demand model are involved, such as skill‐biased technical change or minimum wage variations. The decomposition of wage inequality reveals that the price (wage) effect dominates the composition effect particularly in the first period. Our results show that the real minimum wage hike in 2004 corresponds to a major institutional change, which proved to be welfare‐increasing in terms of wage inequality. The upper‐tail (90/50) wage inequality decreased between 2002 and 2004 and stayed constant thereafter, whereas the lower‐tail (50/10) wage inequality decreased throughout the period. Our findings thus provide evidence supporting the institutional argument for explaining wage inequality.     

Intermediate good sourcing,wages and inequality: From theory to evidence

This paper examines the consequences of offshoring and outsourcing on domestic wages and wage inequality. I highlight the role of labor market frictions in impacting firms’ outsourcing and offshoring decisions; specifically, how differential costs of matching with workers affect the location of production (onshore or offshore) and how differential costs of assessing worker quality affect the ownership of intermediate production (intra‐firm or inter‐firm). I demonstrate how firm sourcing decisions can depend crucially on the industry skill intensity, which reflects the importance of worker–firm match quality, and as a result, the effect of offshoring on domestic labor depends on occupation and industry characteristics, as well as the ownership regime of trade. Bringing the theory to the data I rely on plausibly exogenous variation in the cost of inter‐ and intra‐firm offshoring to identify the effects of a change in each type of offshoring on domestic wages. I find strong evidence that the effect of offshoring on domestic wages—both on the average and on the wage distribution—is governed by the type of offshoring (inter‐ vs. intra‐firm), the skill intensity of the industry, and the offshorability of the occupation.     

Wage differentials across sectors in Europe

Using a unique harmonized linked employer–employee dataset, this paper analyses the structure and determinants of inter‐industry wage differentials in Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) and compares them to those observed in Western European states. Findings show substantial differences in earnings across sectors in all countries, even when controlling for a wide range of employee, job and employer characteristics. The hierarchy of sectors in terms of wages appears to be quite similar in Eastern and Western European countries, although the former tend to have higher levels of dispersion of inter‐industry wage differentials.     

Unobserved Individual and Firm Heterogeneity in Wage and Job‐Duration Functions: Evidence from German Linked Employer–Employee Data

Abstract. We analyse the correlations between individual and firm fixed effects, and wage and job‐duration functions. Our results for large firms suggest that low‐wage firms tend to be stable firms, suggesting that lower wages can buy job stability. Furthermore, high‐wage workers sort into the stable low‐wage firms. Our interpretation is that high‐wage workers have a higher wage to insure against job loss and can afford more easily to forgo wages in favour of job stability. This may provide an explanation of the puzzle identified in previous literature that high‐wage workers are matched to low‐wage firms.     

Financialization and the macroeconomy. Theory and empirical evidence

This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic impact of financialization in the banking sector. We develop a new stock-flow consistent model, which reveals that excessive leverage increases financial fragility, lowers wages, and slows down real sector investment and GDP growth. Using a panel of 29 high income countries, we then construct indicators of banking financialization and investigate the impact of the latter on the wage share, gross capital formation and GDP growth, using a Bayesian structural VAR framework, as well as a set of fixed effect regressions. Our results highlight that financialization has had a detrimental impact on real sector growth. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results to propose reforms to the international financial system.     

Real earnings and business cycles: new evidence

In the time domain, the observed cyclical behavior of the real wage hides a range of economic influences that give rise to cycles of differing lengths and strengths. This may serve to produce a distorted picture of wage cyclicality. Here, we employ frequency domain methods that allow us to assess the relative contribution of cyclical frequency bands on real wage earnings. Earnings are decomposed into standard and overtime components. We also distinguish between consumption and production wages. Frequency domain analysis is carried out in relation to wages alone and to wages in relation to output and employment cycles. Our univariate analysis suggests that, in general, the dominant cycle followed by output, employment, real consumer and producer wages and their components is 5–7 years. Consistent with previous findings reported in the macro-level literature, our bi-variate results show that the various measures of the wage are generally not linked to the employment cycle. However, and in sharp contrast with previous macro-level studies we find strong procyclical links between the consumer wage and its overtime components and the output cycle, especially at the 5–7 years frequency.

Observed real wages are not constant over the cycle, but neither do they exhibit consistent pro- or counter-cyclical movements. This suggests that any attempt to assign systematic real wage movements a central role in an explanation of business cycles is doomed to failure. (lucas 1977)

     

Labour‐market institutions and their impact on trade partners: A quantitative analysis

Recent theoretical literature studies how labour market reforms in one country can affect labour market outcomes in other countries, thereby rationalizing widely held policy beliefs and empirical evidence. But what is the quantitative relevance of such spillover effects? This paper combines two recent workhorse models: the canonical search‐and‐matching framework and the heterogeneous firms international trade model. Qualitatively, the framework confirms that labour market reforms in one country benefit its trading partners, replicating the stylized facts. However, when wages are bargained flexibly, the model quantitatively underestimates the correlation of structural unemployment rates across countries. Introducing some degree of real wage rigidity remedies this problem.     

Industrial Relations Reform: Chasing a Pot of Gold at the End of the Rainbow?

This article reviews the economy‐wide effects of the Work Choices and Fair Work reforms to Australia's industrial relations system. Outcomes examined are wages growth and earnings inequality, labour market adjustment, labour productivity growth and industrial disputes. Little evidence is found of an effect from the industrial relations reforms made in the 2000s. I argue that this is consistent with the nature of the reforms, being primarily oriented to distributive rather than efficiency goals. I finish by describing how private interest can explain current lobbying for further reform to Australia's industrial relations system.     

FDI and productivity growth: the role of inter‐industry linkages

Abstract There is a large literature on the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on productivity through inter‐industry economic linkages. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the developed economy of Canada. It finds that FDI generates strong effects on total factor productivity (TFP) growth through both forward and backward inter‐industry linkages, and increase in an industry's absorptive capacity raises the effects of FDI on TFP growth through forward inter‐industry linkages. For R&D intensive industries, the effects of FDI on TFP growth through inter‐industry linkages are small, but imports turn out to be an important source for TFP growth.     

Globalization and inter‐industry wage differentials in China

This paper explores the relationship between globalization and inter‐industry wage differentials in China by using a two‐stage estimation approach. Taking advantage of a rich household survey dataset, this paper estimates the wage premium for each industry in the first stage conditional on individual worker and firm characteristics. Alternative measures of globalization are considered in the second stage: trade openness and capital openness. A disaggregation of trade into trade in final and intermediate goods shows that increases in import (export) shares of final goods reduce (increase) the wage premia significantly, whereas imports or exports of intermediate goods do not explain differences in industry wage premia. This finding is supported by stronger effects for final goods trade in coastal than noncoastal regions. Our results also show a positive relationship between capital openness and industrial wage premia, though this finding is less robust when potential endogeneity issues are allowed for.     

Wage Flexibility and Unemployment: The Keynesian Perspective Revisited

Keynes' main concern in the General Theory is about the capacity of an economy to return to full employment equilibrium when subject to a (negative) demand shock. He maintains that money wages cuts may not help reabsorb unemployment, as they do not necessarily imply a fall in real wages. On the contrary, wage rigidity may be necessary for avoiding that a cumulative process propels the economy far away the full employment equilibrium. Co‐ordination failures in the investment‐saving market are behind this conclusion. However, the analysis is carried out within a static equilibrium framework. This paper is an attempt to focus on the problems of intertemporal co‐ordination arising within the context of a sequential economy. Our analysis of the out‐of‐equilibrium process of adjustment stirred by a shock allows to generalize the original Keynesian intuition. Unemployment emerges as the result of a lack of co‐ordination due to irreversibly constrained choices, and not only nominal but also real wage flexibility does not necessarily help to restore equilibrium. As a matter of fact, it may even be harmful, by triggering processes that make the economy diverge from equilibrium. Our analysis has important analytical implications as regards the role of market imperfections and the interpretation of the effects of monetary policy.     

Wage Determination In Australia*

This paper examines whether a stable expectations-augmented Phillips curve exists for Australia. High real wages in the face of continuing high unemployment over the past decade have led to suggestions that the level of unemployment has little effect on wage determination, with the bargaining process taking place between employers and those employees in ‘secure employment’. Results from aggregate data suggest that the level of unemployment is relevant to wage determination. In addition, the impact of overtime on the growth in money wages is consistent with the view that those in secure employment are influenced by labour market conditions.     

IMMIGRANT RELATIVE WAGES AT THE GREAT RECESSION: EVIDENCE WITH MATCHED EMPLOYER‐EMPLOYEE DATA FOR SPAIN

The article examines relative wages of immigrants in Spain, with a particular focus on the impact of the Great Recession. The empirical analysis is restricted to men and is based on matched employer‐employee microdata and the decomposition techniques of Juhn et al. (1991, 1993) and Fortin et al. (2011). Our results show that the significant native‐immigrant wage gap that exists both in terms of average wages and of differentials along the wage distribution is essentially explained by differences in the endowments of observed characteristics so that, in general, immigrants tend to receive a similar wage treatment than Spaniards with analogous observed attributes. On the other hand, the Great Recession has had a noticeable impact on the relative wages of immigrants, given that the significant increase of the native‐immigrant wage gap observed during the previous expansionary period was mitigated during the economic downturn due to composition effects arising from the severe employment destruction pattern.     

Labour quality and aggregate real-wage dynamics

The real wage plays an important role in many aggregate econometrics studies of the labour market. However, average wages, like any other average quantity, can change for two reasons – either through an underlying movement in the earnings potential of a unit of labour of given quality or, alternatively, through compositional changes which alter the relative proportions of different types of labour within the employed labour force. Using data from the General Household Survey to estimate earnings functions, the paper seeks to examine the contribution of these two factors for Britain from 1979 to 1989. It is shown that in periods of rising unemployment compositional changes can have a bigger effect on real-earnings growth than any underlying change in reward to labour of give quality. This raises the question of what economists actually are measuring when considering the behaviour of the aggregate real wage.