Commercial Mortgage Pricing with Unobservable Borrower Default Costs

This paper develops a pricing model for commercial real estate mortgage debt that recognizes the influence of default transaction costs on the borrower's default decision. These costs are heterogeneous across borrowers and largely un-observable to the lender/investor at the time of origination or loan purchase. A recognition of these unobservable costs can explain why borrower default decisions may differ from those predicted by "ruthless" mortgage-default pricing models. We address the determinants of default choice and timing by replacing sharp default boundaries found in the ruthless models with "fuzzy" boundaries that account for investor uncertainty with respect to evaluating borrower default decisions. To implement our model, we estimate probabilities of default as a junction of time and net equity in the property. Then, given that default occurs, loss severities are modeled based on expected property value recovery net of foreclosure costs and time until the asset is actually sold. Under reasonable parameter value choices, resulting Monte Carlo simulations produce numerical mortgage price estimates as well as component default frequency and severity levels that realistically reflect default premiums and loss levels observed in the marketplace.     

The Borrower's Perceived Risk in Mortgage Choice

We investigate how borrowers perceive the risk in the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) versus fixed rate mortgage (FRM) choice. We develop a mortgage choice model where the coefficient on the long‐term bond risk premium is conditional on the borrower's perceived risk. We show that the perceived risk fluctuates over time according to the short‐term interest rate level and housing market conditions. We find that when the short‐term rate level is high (low), the borrowers perceive low (high) risk of a short‐term rate rise, thus opting for ARMs (FRMs). Also, during a down housing market they become more risk‐averse perceiving higher risk in choosing ARMs. The perceived risk level alters the borrowers’ sensitivity to the long‐term bond risk premium.     

房地产抵押的风险及防范

根据抵押的概念，介绍了房地产抵押的风险及应对措施。     

Unobserved Heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks

This article extends unobserved heterogeneity to the multinomial logit (MNL) model framework in the context of mortgages terminated by refinance, move or default. It tests for the importance of unobserved heterogeneity when borrower characteristics such as income, age and credit score are included to capture lender-observed heterogeneity. It does this by comparing the proportional hazard model to MNL with and without mass-point estimates of unobserved heterogeneous groups of borrowers. The mass-point mixed hazard (MMH) model yields larger and more significant coefficients for several important variables in the move model, whereas the MNL model without unobserved heterogeneity performs well with the refinance estimates. The MMH clearly dominates the alternative models in sample and out of sample. However, it is sometimes difficult to obtain convergence for the models estimated jointly with mass points.     

Mortgage Default Risks and the 1971 San Fernando Earthquake

The paper is based on a study of mortgage default risks associated with natural disasters. These risks are faced by holders of mortgages when forced by default to acquire damaged properties. A sample of residential mortgage properties damaged in the 1971 San Fernando, California earthquake is studied. Some of the mortgagors defaulted while others did not. The paper identifies and analyzes those variables associated with default using discriminant and probit regression analysis. The study concentrates on earthquake exposures in California, but has implications for all major disasters.     

Managing Mortgage Interest-Rate Risks in Forward, Futures, and Options Markets

This article reviews the Housing Commission's perspective and recommendations on management of interest-rate risks in housing finance, and considers the relative advantages of various techniques by which institutions on the supply side of mortgage markets can absorb or shift such risks. It is argued that exchange-based options can provide a more reliable way than cash forward contracting for originators or purchasers of mortgages to manage commitment-period risk, but that commitment fees charged household borrowers should not fully correspond to premiums for put options "traded" on the exchanges. It also is argued that exchange-based futures can provide a more effective and economical way than asset-liability maturity matching in cash markets for thrift institutions to manage portfolio interest-rate risks; in particular, futures trading can permit these institution to meet the maturity preferences of liquidity-conscious creditors and risk-averse borrowers, to reduce the risk associated with unexpected shifts of the yield curve, and to maintain a higher degree of asset quality. The capacity of futures markets to handle large-scale hedging by mortgage market participants will depend upon heavy participation by highly leveraged speculators who are willing to take long positions without the receipt of substantial risk premiums from hedgers.     

Optimal Interest Rate-Discount Points Combination: Strategy for Mortgage Contract Terms

This paper is distinguished from previous papers by its focus on income-producing properties, rather than owner-occupied single-family residential properties. The real estate investor's strategy, in terms of choosing an interest rate-discount points combination, is analyzed by using a discounted cash flow approach. Under this framework, the investor with a lower marginal tax rate, lower required rate of return and longer investment horizon tends to negotiate for a mortgage contract with a higher number of discount points and lower interest rate. In addition, an intermediate rate-points combination is preferred by an investor only when the lender's required interest rate is a decreasing convex function of the number of discount points.     

浅谈建筑安装工程施工合同风险及防范对策

建筑安装工程施工合同是建设工程的主要合同，是工程建设质量控制、进度控制、投资控制的主要依据．在市场经济条件下，承发包双方的权利义务关系主要通过合同来确定的．建筑市场实行的是先定价后成交的期货交易．其远期交割的特性决定了建筑行业的高风险性，尤其合同风险最为重要。风险与盈利机会同时存在．世界上没有脱离风险的利润．也没有无利润的风险．风险可以转换成利润．如果某一种风险没     

Choice of Mortgage Contracts: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances

This study revisits the empirical question of the determinants of the choice between fixed‐ and adjustable‐rate mortgages using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances that overcome some of the data limitations in previous studies. The results from a logit model of mortgage choice indicate that pricing variables and affordability are important considerations. We also find that factors, such as mobility expectations, income volatility and attitudes toward financial risk largely influence mortgage choice, with more risk‐averse borrowers preferring fixed‐rate mortgages. For households that are less risk averse, the mortgage type choice decision is less sensitive to pricing variables and income volatility, and affordability factors are not significant. These findings provide empirical support that underscores the importance of attitudes toward risks in mortgage choice.     

Housing Finance in a Stochastic Economy: Contract Pricing and Choice

An empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series from the mortgage, housing, capital and labor markets is based on life-cycle consumption and mortgage option pricing considerations. Vector autoregression techniques characterize the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of the mortgage market as it relates to the other sectoral markets. A simultaneous-equations model characterizes the partial equilibrium in the differentiated products market for fixed- and adjustablerate mortgage contracts. The empirical results reveal the impacts that market conditions have on mortgage volumes and prices, and they generally support the implications of the consumption and pricing theories.     

Regressive Interest Rate Expectations and Mortgage Instrument Choice in the United Kingdom Housing Market

The paper considers the choice of mortgage instrument when the rate of interest is fixed for a short duration, with reversion to a variable (bullet) rate mortgage contract. The research is the first direct test for regressive interest rate expectations using United Kingdom data while testing for wealth and portfolio effects. The econometric modeling uses a variety of nonparametric and parametric techniques to control for classification error in the dependent variable. There is evidence that households adopt regressive interest rate expectations. The lack of statistical significance of wealth and portfolio effects confirms the short run cash flow perspective of United Kingdom mortgage choices.     

石油施工企业工程承包合同风险及防范措施

阐述了石油施工企业工程承包风险类型的划分、石油建设安装工程承包合同风险的防范措施和应对措施。指出,在合同的签订和实施过程中要把每一项活动存在的风险降到最低,才能获得最大收益。虽然风险因素的存在、发生及产生的后果都具有不确定性,但如果重视历史经验数据,最大限度地占有信息量,寻求有效的防范措施,就可能有效地减轻风险引起的损失。     

Mortgage Default and Prepayment Risks among Moderate‐ and Low‐Income Households

Using a unique sample of community reinvestment loans, we study the propensity of very low‐income households to terminate a mortgage and compare it to the outcomes for low‐income and moderate‐income households. The results indicate that, even within moderate‐ and low‐income segments, lower or very low income is associated with higher default and lower prepayment probabilities. In addition, depending on how low the borrower's income is, classic determinants of loan termination such as credit scores, the amount of equity in the home and local labor market conditions can have different impacts on default and prepayment probabilities.     

Upstream Competition with Complex and Unobservable Contracts

Review of Industrial Organization - This paper examines situations where two vertically integrated firms consider supplying an input to an independent downstream competitor via privately observed...     

供电企业集中采购合同管理的风险及其防范

当前供电企业在物资集中采购的合同管理方面还存在一些不足,给供电企业的生产经营带来了一些潜在的风险。供电企业应通过健全供应商的选择考评机制、提高合同文本质量、完善合同履行的监控制度等举措加强对供电企业物资集中采购合同的管理,防范经营风险。     

Mortgage Markets and Inter-Regional Differences in Conventional Mortgage Terms

One of the purposes of the secondary mortgage market is to move funds from areas of capital surplus to areas of capital shortage. If mortgage funds move freely throughout the economy then the price of mortgage funds (the terms of the mortgage) should be the same everywhere. Thus, if the secondary mortgage market is efficient, mortgage terms should show less geographic variation after the secondary market began in 1970 than they showed before. In this paper, the efficiency of the market is tested in two stages. In the first, the average terms of mortgage loans in 1968 and 1978 are examined to determine whether they became more homogeneous after the secondary market was begun. In the second stage, the terms are modeled as a function of region, year by region interaction variables, foreclosure rates, the usury ceiling and the average cost of funds. This model is estimated and analyzed using a multivariate multiple regression technique.     

基于心理契约的企业员工行为选择博弈分析

不完全信息条件下,企业和员工间的心理契约与员工的行为选择之间呈现动态的博弈关系。运用演化博弈理论,研究企业和员工间的心理契约类型对员工行为选择产生的影响,将两者之间的心理契约分为交易型和关系型两类,把员工的行为选择策略分为合作与不合作两种,得到16种演化稳定策略,并对不同条件下的演化稳定策略进行分析。研究认为,建立关系型心理契约的企业应提高员工合作策略下的期望收益和实施弹性工作制度,以确保企业和员工均获得超额收益;建立交易型心理契约的企业在强调任务导向的同时更要重视对员工的人性化关怀。此外,员工也应注重培养心理契约感知能力,提升全面素质,以应对心理契约破裂风险。     

The Termination of Commercial Mortgage Contracts through Prepayment and Default: A Proportional Hazard Approach with Competing Risks

This article examines the factors driving the borrower's decision to terminate commercial mortgage contracts with the lender through either prepayment or default. Using loan–level data, we estimate prepayment and default functions in a proportional hazard framework with competing risks, allowing us to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Under a strict definition of mortgage default, we do not find evidence to support the existence of unobserved heterogeneity. However, when the definition of mortgage default is relaxed, we do find some evidence of two distinctive borrower groups. Our results suggest that the values of implicit put and call options drive default and prepayment actions in a nonlinear and interactive fashion. Prepayment and default risks are found to be convex in the intrinsic value of call and put options, respectively. Consistent with the joint nature of the two underlying options, high value of the put/call option is found to significantly reduce the call/put risk since the borrower forfeits both options by exercising one. Variables that proxy for cash flow and credit conditions as well as ex post bargaining powers are also found to have significant influence upon the borrower's mortgage termination decision.     

UK Fixed Rate Repayment Mortgage and Mortgage Indemnity Valuation

We use a mean-reverting interest rate model and a lognormal house price diffusion model to evaluate British fixed rate repayment mortgage contracts with (embedded) default and prepayment options. The model also provides values for capped mortgage indemnity guarantees and the corresponding (residual) lender's coinsurance. Since the partial differential equation incorporating the general features of these mortgage contracts does not have a closed-form solution, an explicit finite difference method is used for the valuation (and sensitivity) results, with solution improvements to deal with error bounds. Then we provide graphical representations of each mortgage component as a function of house prices and interest rate levels, along with interpretations of the analysis. We calculate precisely the lender's (residual) exposure to house price risk, given the borrower's options, house and interest rate uncertainty, and customary mortgage indemnity insurance for high loan/collateral ratio mortgages.     

Residential Mortgage Markets and the Cost of Mortgage Funds

Early federal housing finance policy appears to have been largely directed at making mortgages more marketable. The creation of FHA, FNMA and FHLMC were designed to homogenize the mortgage instrument and to develop a secondary market for it. Apparently because of a lack of demand for marketability by investors, extensive trading of mortgages has not developed. Nonetheless, the fantastic growth in mortgage pools (as well as the unanticipated growth in FNMA holdings) has increased competition in the supplying of some intermediation functions (mortgage bankers have greatly expanded originations and servicing), has improved interregional flows of mortgage funds, and has given mortgage borrowers a greater access to capital markets generally. The principal result has been a decline in the mortgage rate relative to other market rates, although the inflation-triggered explosion in the demand for mortgage funds in recent years appears to be offsetting the impact of the growth in federal credit broadly defined.