期望效用理论的确定性等价方法

本文说明不确定性选择的von Neumann-Morgenstem期望效用理论的实质是对每一种不确定性选择定义其确定性的等价,从而把不确定性的问题转化为确定性问题进行讨论。我们引入三个新的公理,来说明确定性等价的描述方法。这一方法与原来的理论是完全一致的,能更加直观,更清楚地说明问题的实质,并且可以直接推广到连续的情形。     

不确定条件下环境政策的时机选择

本文建立了一个连续时间模型，用于分析不确定条件下环境政策的时机选择。模型结果显示，环境政策的采用有两种不可逆性，而且它们在相反的方向上起作用：第一，旨在降低生态危害的政策对社会施加了沉淀成本。它产生立即采用这一政策而不是等待有关生态影响及其经济后果的更多信息的机会成本，这种机会成本使等待而不是现在就采纳政策更可取；第二，环境危害可能部分或完全不可逆。这就意味着立即采用一项政策而不是等待具有沉没收益，即负的机会成本。这种负的机会成本偏离了政策采用中传统的成本一收益分析。因此，现在立即采用一项政策可能是更合适的，即使传统的分析宣称它是不经济的。文章表明，不确定性对环境政策的时机选择有着重要的影响。     

Aggregation in Input–Output Models: Prices and Quantities

This paper develops a joint theory of aggregation of input–output quantity and price models. The main emphasis is on the problem of aggregation of industries in the models. While aggregation of quantity models is a familiar topic in economic literature, the aggregation of price models is a largely unexplored subject. Here, however, quantity and price models are considered as two parts of a single, composite flow model. This understanding implies that each result in the quantity model has dual counterpart in the price model and vice versa. Through consistent use of this duality principle, significant results are developed for both model types, and a number of well-known results can be stated in a simpler way. Specifically, a number of conditions for perfect aggregation of final demands, primary inputs and industries in price models as well as quantity models are formulated. On this basis a new indicator of aggregation bias is suggested. The indicator can be decomposed into the contributions of each detailed industry, enabling the user to identify atypical industries in each group. Furthermore, the indicator can be computed even with no knowledge of the coefficients of the detailed models.     

Simultaneous Adjustment of Quantities and Prices: An Example of Hamiltonian Dynamics

In a well-known essay first published in 1953, Goodwin analyzed the dynamic adjustment of quantities and prices to long-run equilibrium values, in a set ofn ‘Walrasian’ markets. He treated the crossed adjustment of prices and quantities as a linear Hamiltonian vector field. In more recent work, Goodwin introduced non-linear perturbations in his multi-sectoral adjustment model. He assumed that real consumption depends non-linearly on relative prices. This paper shows the following: (1) Goodwin's behavioural hypotheses are compatible with the assumption that agents maximize; (2) if the dynamic process is Hamiltonian, then symplectic coordinate changes are essential tools of analysis; (3) if the real wage is rigid and returns to scale are not constant, then the Hamiltonian model can generate chaotic transients or, in extreme cases, pure chaotic motions.     

地铁工程土建施工招标中工程量清单及控制价的编制

随着地铁工程建设项目的增多,如何在招投标阶段做好工程造价的控制显得日益重要,本文从工程量清单和控制价的编制两个方面进行了阐述。     

Information Acquisition and Choice Under Uncertainty

This paper presents a model where individuals have imperfect information and there is an opportunity cost of learning. It shows that the endogenous decision to collect costly information before taking an action has a systematic effect on choices. More precisely, consider two alternatives with ex ante identical expected payoff but different variances. The model predicts that, after the learning process is stopped, a majority of individuals will select the alternative with largest payoff-variance. The result persists when agents have multiple sources of information. Applications to entrepreneurial investments, composition of advisory committees, and judicial decision-making are discussed.     

工程量清单招投标模式下的结算造价方法

工程量清单招投标模式下的结算造价一般包括以下五方面的造价:①招投标清单项目内的结算造价;②重新进行清单组价的结算造价;③价差调整造价,即招投标清单项目内的工料机价格变化超过合同约定的风险变化幅度时引起的价格调整造价;④综合单价调整引起的造价,即招投标清单项目内的清单工程量变化超过合同约定的风险变化幅度时综合单价引起的造价;⑤措施费调整造价。本文在介绍相关理论的基础上,结合实际案例论述了相关清单计价软件和电子表格软件的实战操作。     

Market Entry,Capacity Choice,and Product Differentiation in Duopolistic Competition under Uncertainty

This paper examines the impact of pre‐emptive competition for a leader's position on the investment strategies for market entry, production capacities, and product differentiation. In the absence of pre‐emptive competition, the leader's production capacity exceeds the follower's, and the leader earns excess returns. In contrast, in its presence, the leader's production capacity decreases below the follower's, and the follower's investment value exceeds the leader's when the follower enters the market. These results suggest the new insight that pre‐emptive competition provides the opportunity for the follower to expedite investing and to enhance investment value by capitalizing on the leader's insufficient capacity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅谈工程量清单模式下的工程成本控制

一项功程对企业是否具有经济利益,很大程度上由工程的成本来决定,因此,施工企业对工程成本的控制非常重要。针对施工企业的实际状况,利用工程量清单模式,可以有效地控制工程成本,提高工程的利润。可见,工程量清单对于施工企业来说尤为重要。     

工程量清单计价模式下建筑工程项目的成本管理研究

随着我国建筑业的蓬勃发展以及加入WTO等新形势的需要,对我国的工程造价计价管理提出了更高的要求,工程造价计价模式的改革势在必行。本文对我国的建筑工程造价计价模式改革进行了深入的分析,揭示了我国计价模式改革的必然性。     

工程量清单计价模式下的投标策略分析

我国目前正处于工程量清单计价模式下,投标策略的优异程度是投标成功与否的关键。所以,要加强对工程清单模式下的投标策略的研究力度。在进行研究的过程中,通过找出问题,分析解决策略,并在市场中进行实践,最终得出在该模式下的投标策略。加强企业自身的管理,分析市场以及对手的情况,综合多方面资源,选择正确的投标方向。     

谈工程量清单模式下的投标报价工作

在建筑市场竞争日益激烈的当前形势下,工程量清单计价模式已成为工程报价的现状和发展方向,获得工程收益最大化中至关重要的一个环节是如何较好运用投标策略编制好投标报价。     

工程量清单计价模式下建筑施工企业工程造价控制与管理措施

建筑工程项目的造价控制与管理是一个动态过程,本文结合笔者多年建筑工程造价工作实践,分析阐述了建筑施工企业要适应工程量清单计价模式,必须编制企业定额,加强投标报价、施工合同签订、施工以及竣工结算各阶段的工程造价控制与管理。     

不确定性条件下的城市配电网规划方法探讨

城市电网的安全可靠运行是城市发展的重要基础,配电网的规划工作是电网建设工作的前提条件。本文对城市配电网规划的相关内容进行了分析和探讨。     

试论工程量清单模式下不平衡报价的应对策略

现行的工程量清单计价模式下,大量承包商往往采用不平衡报价手法,严重影响了建设工程施工合同的生成和实施。本文描述了不平衡报价的分类,列举了承包商不平衡报价的常用手法,提出防范不平衡报价的应对策略。     

Efficient Intertemporal Utility Pricing under Uncertainty

Electric utilities today face increasing competition from substitutes for utility-generated power. As a result, utilities are being forced to reevaluate their pricing policies to address competition from other fuels and potential customer ‘bypass’ of the utility. This paper extends the analysis of second-best utility pricing to explicitly account for both the short- and long-run price responses of customers with competitive alternatives to utility-generated power. The presence of long-run substitution opportunities reduces the optimal percentage mark-up of price over marginal cost for noncore customers. Uncertainty concerning the substitution response of noncore electricity customers also tends to reduce the optimal price mark-up. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新形势下我国民营物流企业的抉择

介绍了我国民营物流企业发展面临的新形势，论述了我国民营物流企业面临的挑战与机遇，提出了在新经济和新环境下，我国民营物流企业的发展战略。     

清单计价模式下工程项目的合同条款

我国工程造价管理正处于向市场经济模式转变时期,既没有工程量清单计价新模式的合同文本,也没有相应合同管理的措施。依据《建设工程工程量计价规范》,同时参照英国NEC合同条件,探讨清单计价合同的订立。     

施工企业工程量清单计价模式下工程造价的控制

施工企业在进行工程造价管理时,对于工程量清单计价模式,要有效的提高对于造价的控制能力,提高工程资金投入的使用效益,是现阶段工程造价管理工作的重要方式。本文对于施工企业工程量清单计价模式下工程造价控制的相关问题进行了分析与探讨。     

工程量清单模式下建筑造价管控建议分析

结合建筑工程项目的实际情况出发,通过建筑造价管控的落实,能够有效防范偷工减料的问题,确保建筑工程项目的综合效益得到维护。本文就工程量清单模式的基本程序、基本特点以及优势分布进行分析,明确建筑工程造价管理中存在的问题,进一步探讨工程量清单模式下建筑造价管控的建议,旨在有效落实建筑造价管控,对施工中所涉及风险进行有效分担。