More on the Discounting of Residual Income Streams

The purpose of this paper is to take the conclusions reached by Peasnell (1981, 1982) and Kay (1976) and show that the use of discounted residual incomes for project evaluation purposes requires the prior appraisal on a cash flow basis. The use of residual income at the investment planning and subsequently at the accounting stages is also evaluated.     

What is an Investment Project's Implied Rate of Return?

How to measure a project's implied rate of return has long been an unresolved problem, except for some special cases. This paper derives return on present cost (ROPC) as the correct measure of an investment project's implied rate of return. The IRR is a biased measure except for projects classified as simple projects, and this bias is likely to be substantial in many real‐world applications. Thus while net present values should be used to determine whether to accept/reject projects, I recommend that analysts use ROPC in place of the IRR as a measure of a project's true rate of return.     

Presenting Discounted Future Cash Receipts and Payments in Financial Statements

This article is about the commonly asserted view that present value, the discounted amount of future cash receipts and payments, is an attribute of assets and that it ideally should replace acquisition cost as the attribute of assets to present in financial statements. The view is based on faulty extrapolation from economics and the study of finance. Use of present value in connection with the preparation of financial statements does not contribute to performing their basic function, which is to report relevant real world conditions as they exist and existed and relevant financial effects of relevant real world events as they occurred. The view turns discounting into a magical process, it reverses the chronological order of cause and effect, and it unjustifiably substitutes the financial effects of supposed future events for the financial effects of historical events as the raw material of financial statements. The future does not yet exist and such financial events have not yet occurred; the present condition therefore can in no way depend on them. The discounted amount of future cash receipts and payments is not an attribute of assets and it should therefore not replace acquisition cost as the attribute of assets to present in financial statements.     

项目现金流变动下内部收益率敏感性排序研究

运用全微分解剖内部收益率对投资、经营成本、收益的敏感性分析过程,提炼出利用各现金流折现值之和判定上述三因素变动下内部收益率敏感性排序的方法:基本方案下某因素现金流的折现值之和大于另一因素现金流的折现值之和,则内部收益率对前一因素的敏感性程度也超过对后一因素的敏感性程度。这一结论掠过了内部收益率与各因素变动率的复杂关系和烦琐的计算,给项目投资风险的定性评价带来方便、简洁之效。     

To Fair Value or Not to Fair Value: A Broader Perspective

Fair value is considered here with respect to the two primary objectives of financial statements proposed in the joint conceptual framework that is under development by the FASB and the IASB, namely (a) informativeness—to assist providers of capital in predicting, evaluating, and comparing the amounts, timing and uncertainty of future cash flows, and (b) stewardship—to assist in evaluating how efficient and effective managers have been in enhancing shareholders' value. More specifically, a comprehensive set of accounting measures and a set of corporate governance reforms intended to align corporate insiders' and auditors' behaviour and decisions with the interests of investors is outlined. Suggested reforms show how to present a mix of effectively historical quantifications, exit values, and the discounted values of future cash flows expected from the particularized use of combinations of assets within the firm. Additionally, the article describes how markets can be reformed in order to align the interests of the officers who prepare such accounts, and the auditors who certify them, with those of investors. These market-based reforms would require auditors to insure misrepresentations, and managers to take equity to induce truthful reporting. Also included is a radical extension to earlier proposals by the author, requiring an officer of the company to make the market in shares in a way that would place limits upon the value of the insider's private information.     

The Value Relevance of Direct Cash Flows under International Financial Reporting Standards

This study examines if there has been a change in the value relevance of direct cash flow components since the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Australia. Our results show that for both industrial and extractive firms direct cash flow statements are value relevant under Australian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (AGAAP) and remain so after the adoption of IFRS. In addition, for industrial firms there is a significant increase in the value relevance of direct cash flows after IFRS, along with an increase in the value relevance of accruals. These results are consistent with the proposition that direct cash flows play a reinforcing role that complements the more complex IFRS accounts. Consequently, if the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) were to mandate direct cash flow statements it would, in all likelihood, provide users of accounts with a valuable incremental source of hard transaction information.     

The Usefulness of Direct and Indirect Cash Flow Disclosures

We investigate the ability of disclosed operating cash flow and indirect accruals components to explain annual returns for a sample of Australian firms. Consistent with claims made by accounting standard setters, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for disclosed operating cash flow components beyond aggregate operating cash flows when they also have significant incremental predictive power for future (one year ahead) operating cash flows. Accrual components also have incremental explanatory power for returns. In addition, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for operating cash flow components beyond estimates of the components (based on other financial statement disclosures) for firms with large differences between disclosed and estimated components.     

Reexamining the Robustness of the Market Value of Equity

We apply the methodology of Knez and Ready (KR) (1997) to data from the Japanese stock market and reexamine the robustness of the risk premium for the market value of equity (MVE). In particular, we compare two alternative explanations for the relation between stock returns and MVE: the one pointed out by Fama and French (FF) (1992) and the other proposed by Berk (1995). Consistent with results for the U.S. market, when we check FF's explanation for MVE, we find that the risk premium for MVE is not robust against extreme observations. Besides the evidence supporting KR's findings, we study the role of MVE proposed by Berk (1995), who points out that under controlled expected cash flows, MVE will be negatively correlated with expected returns. After showing that MVE negatively correlates with risk in the presence of expected cash flows, we test the robustness of the relation between returns and MVE. We find that the estimated risk premium for MVE is robust when realized cash flows (earnings plus depreciation) or book value of equity (BE) is used as a proxy for expected cash flows.     

A Simulation-Based Investigation of Errors in Accounting-Based Surrogates for Internal Rate of Return

Accounting-based measures of a firm's ex post performance represent accessible, albeit imperfect, surrogates for its internal rate of return (IRR). Using a cross-sectional data set obtained via computer simulation, this study calculated the error with which the accounting rate of return (ARR) and conditional estimate of internal rate of return (CIRR) estimate IRR. The study compared the error with which both surrogates measure IRR, as well as the ability of growth in unit demand (gD), inventory cost flow assumption (INV) and depreciation method (DEP) to explain the measurement error in both surrogates.     

Asset pricing with investor sentiment: On the use of investor group behavior to forecast ASEAN markets

A study of investor behavior, using four investor groups (local, foreign, institutional, and dealer's accounts) on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The daily net purchases of each group are used as leading indicators for sentiment. The sentiments are examined with relation to each other and market returns. Eight proven macroeconomic factors with known cross-sectional relationships and known to forecast with returns are examined as a benchmark for the newly proposed sentiment factor model. Retesting the factors allows for an apples to apples comparison with the proposed sentiment factors. Using a VAR framework this research finds that dealers predominantly sell to institutional accounts, creating a negative correlation between the two groups, in addition to strong institutional herding which is all indicative of potential agency problems on the exchange. Also find that local individual accounts practice negative feedback trading and the other groups practice positive feedback trading. Of the four groups, the only group that influences the SET is the local individual group of investors. The foreign investor is found to be the least significant group on market returns, provide market liquidity to locals, and be the least responsive to daily market changes-following the prudent man rule. Lastly, propose a simple model, using investor behavior to accurately predict the market's direction for the following day 76 percent of the time with market timing ability (66 percent in Malaysia). This can be useful for buying and shorting the market.     

The usefulness of operating cash flow and accrual components in improving the predictive ability of earnings: a re‐examination and extension

We examine whether the components of accruals and operating cash flows improve the predictive ability of earnings for forecasting future cash flows. Unlike most previous studies, we avoid data estimation errors and sample self‐selection bias because we exploit data from Australia where reporting of actual cash flow components had been mandatory since 1992. We show that accrual components and operating cash flow components together are more useful than (i) earnings, (ii) operating cash flows and total accruals and (iii) the combination of operating cash flows with accrual components in forecasting future cash flows. These results are robust to several contextual factors, including the length of the operating cash cycle, industry membership, firm profitability and firm size.     

Cramér–Von Mises distance estimation for some positive infinitely divisible parametric families with actuarial applications

Cramér–Von Mises (CVM) inference techniques are developed for some positive flexible infinitely divisible parametric families generalizing the compound Poisson family. These larger families appear to be useful for parametric inference for positive data. The methods are based on inverting the characteristic functions. They are numerically implementable whenever the characteristic function has a closed form. In general, likelihood methods based on density functions are more difficult to implement. CVM methods also lead to model testing, with test statistics asymptotically following a chi-square distribution. The methods are for continuous models, but they can also handle models with a discontinuity point at the origin such as the case of compound Poisson models. Simulation studies seem to suggest that CVM estimators are more efficient than moment estimators for the common range of the compound Poisson gamma family. Actuarial applications include estimation of the stop loss premium, and estimation of the present value of cash flows when interest rates are assumed to be driven by a corresponding Lévy process.     

Cash Flows and Net Realizable Values: Further Evidence of the Intuitive Concepts

This paper reports the results of a survey of students with and without prior knowledge of accounting with a view to identifying any differences in their perception of the relevance of current prices of assets.
The combination of cash flows and net realizable values appears to have an intuitive appeal to students with no prior exposure to accounting concepts or practices. In the process of learning about accounting, it seems that students learn to abandon net realizable values in favour of historical costs.     

A Description and Market Analysis of Write-off Announcements

This paper examines the stock market reaction to write-off announcements. The increasing prevalence of write-offs over the last decade has lead the Financial Accounting Standards Board to issue new guidelines on the accounting for write-offs, and there has been much discussion about the stock market reaction to these types of announcements. By focusing on the expected cash flow implications of the different types of write-off announcements, this paper documents that the stock price reaction to write-off announcements is associated with the expected cash flow implications of the events surrounding the write-off.     

The Incremental Information Content of Earnings and Cash Flows from Operations Affected by Their Extremity

Previous returns studies have shown that extreme earnings and extreme cash flows from operations are less informative than moderate (i.e., less extreme) earnings and moderate cash flows. Studies also report that cash flows supplement to earnings in firm valuation by showing a higher association of cash flows with returns when earnings are extreme than when earnings are moderate. We propose that this supplementary role of cash flows is affected by cash flows extremity. Using data from the US capital markets, we find that the supplementary role of cash flows exists only when cash flows are not extreme. We also investigate the supplementary role of earnings to cash flows and search for a higher association of earnings with returns when cash flows are extreme than when cash flows are moderate. Similar to results on cash flows, our findings show that the supplementary role of earnings exists only when earnings are not extreme. Our results imply that investors and researchers should consider both earnings and cash flows extremity when assessing the information content of these variables.     

Price Elasticity of Demand and an Optimal Cash Discount Rate in Credit Policy

While the provision of a cash discount is equivalent to a reduction in price, the role of price elasticity of demand in determining credit terms has been neglected in the extant literature. In this paper, this role is investigated and it is shown that the optimal cash discount rate is affected by the price elasticity of demand for the firm's product. The comparative effects on the optimal cash discount rate with respect to exogenous changes in the fraction of credit sales paid after taking cash discount, the cost of short-term funds and the bad debt loss ratio are investigated. A trade-off between the time value gain and the price elasticity of demand is established. We find that firms which sell in locations having different price elasticities for their products, and/or which face various costs of short-term funds in different locations, should vary their cash discount terms accordingly.     

Information Provided by Accrual and Cash-Flow Measures of Operating Activities

This article examines accrual and cash-flow measures useful for observing companies' financing, investing and operating activities. It addresses the information provided jointly by income and operating cash flow, and reveals that information provided by these accounting measures is dependent on their relative magnitudes. A consistent pattern of income in excess of operating cash flow, with both measures appropriately adjusted and scaled, indicates superior company growth. Income and cash-flow patterns are associated significantly with various company financing, investing and operating attributes. Empirical tests confirm that both income and operating cash flow are important for observing company performance and prospects when considered jointly and when interpreted with respect to accounting measurement theory. At least for many companies, the results do not support the conventional wisdoms that accounting measures of income and operating cash flow converge over long periods of time and that earnings provide a reliable basis for cash-flow prediction.     

Determinants and economic consequences of cash flow restatements

The FASB, PCAOB, SEC, and AICPA have all acknowledged that the accounting field needs to revisit the statement of cash flows (SCF). While the overall number of restatements has held steady over the past five years, the percentage of cash flow restatements (CFRs) has risen from 8.7% of all restatements in 2009 to 20.2% of all restatements in 2014. We examine the determinants of CFRs, investors’ differential beliefs about CFRs, and the information content of CFRs by focusing on abnormal trading volume and price reactions to CFRs. We then examine whether the guidance the SEC/AICPA published in early 2006 changed the information content of CFRs. Finally, since the proper classification within the SCF is a current regulatory issue, we examine whether classification shifting within the SCFs impacts the market. The market finds CFRs to be informative with some investor disagreement as shown by higher abnormal trading volume. We also find an incremental volume reaction to changes in operating cash flows after the SEC allowance period. While the market responds negatively to CFRs, we find that the market does not differentiate between whether classification shifting occurs or does not occur with the CFR. This study has implications for policymakers, auditors, and investors since it is one of the first to examine the capital market consequences of CFRs.     

A New Measure of Equity and Cash Flow Duration: The Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium Revisited

This article reexamines the duration‐based explanation of the value premium using novel estimates of the firms' equity and cash flow durations based on analyst forecasts. We show that the value premium can be explained by cross‐sectional differences in the shares' equity durations, but not by their cash flow durations. Different from the duration‐based explanation of the value premium that explains the value premium with cross‐sectional differences in the firm's cash flow timing, we find that short‐horizon stocks have lower (expected) returns than long‐horizon stocks. This result is consistent with an upward‐sloping equity yield curve.     

证券公司借壳上市：模式、成本和收益比较

本文提出了一套模型和指标来计算中国证券公司及其股东在借壳上市中的成本与收益。研究发现：证券公司实际承担的总借壳支出并不高，甚至还可能在合并后获得净现金收益；在借壳上市中，证券公司原股东主要承担了股权稀释的成本；证券公司借壳上市后，其原股东普遍获得高投资增值收益；采用不同的借壳模式，证券公司原股东的成本及收益的规模和收益结构等有明显差异；结合股改的模式可能提高证券公司原股东的借壳收益，而采用分步走的模式可能带来更高的资产估值收益以及总体借壳效益。