Quango reform: the next steps?

The coalition government elected in 2010 in the UK pursued a programme of quango reform focused on reducing the number and expenditure of arm’s-length bodies, increasing transparency, improving accountability and maximizing efficiency and effectiveness. This paper revisits Flinders and Skelcher’s 2012 Flinders, M. and Skelcher, C. (2012), Shrinking the quango state: five challenges in reforming quangos. Public Money &; Management, 32, 5, pp. 327–334.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] PMM paper ‘Shrinking the quango state: five challenges in reforming quangos’ to assess progress to date and consider future challenges. Drawing insights from the UK programme of quango reform, as well as similar developments in Ireland, the authors identify five new challenges for governments: regulating, managing, reconciling, co-ordinating and reflecting.     

Contingent convertibles. Solving or seeding the next banking crisis?

A recent proposal to enhance banking stability recommends the use of contingent convertibles (CoCos). Since these hybrid securities are mandatorily converted into equity when banks are in need of a recapitalization, they are credited for reducing banks’ likelihood of financial distress. In this paper, we show within a continuous-time framework that this allegedly beneficial impact hinges critically on the assumption of complete contracts. If contracts are incomplete in the sense that manager-owners enjoy discretion over the risk of the investment program, our analysis shows that CoCo bonds always distort risk taking incentives. Our main contribution is to demonstrate that there exist conditions under which CoCo bond financing increases investors’ wealth, but also increases the bank’s probability of financial distress, so that the banking system as a whole will be destabilized. Thus, individually rational decisions can have systemically undesirable outcomes. Further results indicate that CoCos should be used only in conjunction with devices to control risk shifting incentives.     

Liver function tests: what is the risk?

Five laboratory assays are commonly called liver function tests (LFTs), although these tests are neither specific to the liver nor true measures of liver function. As a result, alanine aminotransferase (ALT or SGPT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST or SGOT), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin have proven problematic for clinicians and risk selection professionals alike. Further, underwriters and insurance medical directors find these tests difficult to assess because of the lack of data directly relating LFT elevations to mortality outcome. Nonetheless, the tests are frequently encountered, so a strategy for evaluating abnormal results is critical to ensure accurate and fair pricing. This paper reviews basic information on LFTs, available mortality data and the application of this knowledge to the underwriting process.     

Access to services: what are the real needs?

Adequate accessibility to managed care services is typically a key determining factor when an employer decides to implement a managed care plan. And although it can be difficult for an employer to determine what constitutes adequate accessibility, it is necessary in order for managed care utilization and associated cost savings to be maximized.     

Latin American Cycles: Has Anything Changed After the Great Recession?

This paper analyzes the evolution of growth cycles and business cycles in Latin America from 1980 to 2013 by using monthly industrial production. Focusing on both synchronization and other cyclical features, we find evidence of significant cyclical links between the countries of the region, which seem to be highly integrated in this period. Notably, we find that the Great Recession did not lead to any significant impact on the preexisting Latin American cyclical linkages.     

Sell the rumour,buy the fact?

We document a high‐profile instance of mispricing that is puzzling given the gradual information diffusion hypothesis and the lack of obvious limits to arbitrage. An internet search in 2008 led to a story about United Airlines’ 2002 bankruptcy being re‐released as ‘news’. This resulted in United Airlines losing 73 per cent of its value and caused a $4.2 billion decline in the value of airline stocks and United Airlines suppliers. The incorrect bankruptcy ‘news’ was quickly retracted, which led to a rebound in other airline and supplier firms, but the stock price of United Airlines was adversely affected for 4 days.     

Fluctuations in the UK equity market: what drives stock returns?

Present value parameters from a state-space model are estimated for the UK FT All-Share Index. The estimated parameters are used to construct a time series of expected future returns and expected future values of dividend growth, both of which are found to be time-varying with persistent components. Variations in the price-dividend ratio appear to be driven primarily by the variance in expected returns. A comparison with the findings from a present value-constrained vector autoregression model indicates that the latter forecasts future realized returns and dividend growth better than the series constructed using a state-space approach. Furthermore, when the model is estimated for monthly and quarterly data, expected dividend growth is found to be more persistent.     

New guidelines from the National Cholesterol Education Program: what is the impact on risk assessment?

The National Cholesterol Education Program has developed a set of guidelines for optimal levels of serum lipids that are recommended to reduce the risk of coronary artery disease. This article compares those values to lipid levels found in insurance applicants.     

When times get tough, what happens to TQM? Case study

When Mueller Chemical Company's biggest customer, Ameriton, demanded that MCC install a total quality management system five years ago, the effort seemed worth it. Morale improved dramatically at the German company, as did quality and productivity. But now, in this fictional case study, Ameriton has gone bankrupt. As a result, MCC has had to cut its work force, and senior managers are meeting to decide whether TQM should be part of the downsized MCC. Horst Koblitz, director of TQM, and Division Manager Eva Stichen both vote yes. Stichen's division, which never supplied Ameriton, has turned its process-control system into the company's best thanks to TQM. The division is more cost-efficient, product defects are nearly nonexistent, and its safety record is spotless. As Koblitz notes, Ameriton's failure is no reason to abandon all that MCC has built. Furthermore, shareholders and customers would think that MCC was panicking. MCC just needs to tailor its TQM program to a smaller organization. But CFO Georg Becker doesn't think MCC has the time or resources for fine-tuning. And as he sees it, that might be just as well. The distractions that came with TQM took MCC away from its goal of becoming the chemicals market leader in Europe. While the company organized teams, developed measurement systems, and filled out quality reports, its competitors took away much of the market share MCC was after. TQM was a good long-term approach, but it didn't come with a plan for MCC's current situation. And CEO and Chairman Dieter Mueller won't compromise; TQM must either stay or go.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Home equity lines of credit and the unemployment rate: Have unemployed consumers borrowed themselves into the next financial crisis?

Some economists argue the recent recovery has been so meager because many consumers have lost their main source of income and maxed-out their home-equity borrowings. Further, banks that were able to make consumer loans did so with less security because home prices fell so dramatically. This paper argues that at least part of that recovery story is purely anecdotal and, in fact, incorrect. In spite of the precipitous decline in home prices, the original price increases were so large that many homeowners still have/had adequate equity in their homes to borrow. The paper presents evidence that the average quarterly increase in aggregate home equity line of credit (HELOC) lending after housing prices began their decline is, statistically, no different than the average quarterly increase in HELOC lending before housing prices began their downward trend. The evidence also suggests that increased HELOC lending during the recession is not correlated with higher unemployment.     

Breast cancer risk perceptions and breast cancer worry: what predicts what?

This longitudinal study explored the relationship between perceived breast cancer risk and worry. We measured both absolute and comparative risk perceptions, and also used the Gail algorithm to assess the accuracy of participants' risk perceptions. Three hundred and one women ages 40–75 participated in a two‐part study assessing how format of breast cancer risk presentation affected perceptions of risk. Relative to their Gail scores, women were biased pessimistically about their own absolute breast cancer risk and yet largely accurate about their comparative breast cancer risk. Perceived comparative risk, but not perceived absolute risk or biases in absolute or comparative risk, predicted subsequent worry. Worry predicted subsequent perceived absolute risk and biases in absolute and comparative risk. These results suggest that women's emotional reactions to breast cancer risk are based on accurate (unbiased) perceptions of their comparative risks. In turn, greater worry prompts a re‐evaluation of absolute risk as well as changes in risk biases. Implications for screening are discussed.     

Who should teach what? Australian perceptions of the roles of universities and practice in the education of professional accountants

This paper addresses the respective roles and responsibilities of universities and practitioners in educating professional accountants. The issues are explored by a review of the literature in accounting and other professions regarding the respective roles of universities and employers in the development of both technical and non-technical knowledge and skills of professionals, particularly accounting practitioners. The literature review suggests that critics of university-based education fail to recognise (a) the changes that have occurred in the roles and responsibilities of accounting practitioners, and (b) the opportunity costs necessarily associated with providing generalist accounting degrees. Universities and employers have comparative advantages for the development of different types of professional skills and knowledge. These insights are extended by way of a series of interviews with Australian accounting practitioners, representatives from professional accounting bodies, recent accounting graduates, and accounting students about their perceptions of the respective responsibilities and roles of universities and employers. Although some interviewees recognised that universities cannot be ‘all things to all people’, there was a tendency to expect universities to have the major responsibility for the development in accounting graduates of both technical and non-technical knowledge and skills. Such perceptions tended to understate the responsibilities and comparative advantage of employers and result in unrealistic expectations about the outcomes of a university education. Employers need to be made more aware of the resource and other limitations associated with university programs and should develop meaningful opportunities for learning and reflection within workplace contexts.     

Continuous rainbow options on commodity outputs: what is the real value of switching facilities?

We develop real rainbow option models to value an operating asset with the flexibility to choose between two commodity outputs. We provide a quasi-analytical solution and a numerical lattice solution to a model with continuous switching opportunities between two commodity outputs, taking into account operating and switching costs. The models are applied to an illustrative case, demonstrating that the quasi-analytical solution and the lattice approach provide near identical results for the asset valuation and optimal switching boundaries. We find that the switching boundaries generally narrow as prices decline. In the presence of operating costs and temporary suspension, however, the thresholds diverge for low enough prices. A fertilizer plant with flexibility between selling ammonia and urea is valued in an empirical section using our real option models. Despite the high correlation between the two alternative commodities, ammonia and urea, there is significant value in the flexibility to choose between the two. Both strategic and policy implications for stakeholders in flexible assets are discussed, with some generalisations outside the fertilizer industry.