发展中国家金融开放的外汇市场风险测算及资本流入影响北大核心

利用全球65个发展中国家1999-2019年的样本数据,以外汇市场压力指数测算发展中国家金融开放的外汇市场风险,并以金融发展水平和制度质量为门槛变量,基于动态面板双门槛回归模型分析了FDI流入、债券组合投资流入、股票组合投资流入等三种跨境资本流入的影响.实证结果表明,跨境资本流入对发展中国家金融外汇市场具有非线性风险促进效应,不同金融发展初始水平的东道国金融开放存在"U"型跨境资本流入风险促进效应,而东道国制度质量初始水平与跨境资本流入风险效应负相关.替换关键核心解释变量和利用子样本检验后发现实证结论是稳健的.     

金融扭曲导致FDI大量流入我国吗?——来自我国省级面板数据的证据

本文利用我国省区面板数据和系统GMM方法对FDI流入我国的原因进行了分析.发现除劳动力成本、市场规模、基础设施、工业化程度和开放程度等传统因素外,金融市场扭曲致使非国有企业难以从国内金融体系中获得融资也是导致FDI大量流入我国的重要原因.金融扭曲导致我国非国有企业面临严重融资约束,存在为满足融资需求寻求外商投资的动机;同时金融扭曲严重阻碍我国非国有企业发展,致使国内有竞争力的企业组织严重稀缺.FDI一方面为资金紧缺的非国有企业提供融资支持,另一方面与我国劳动力资源相结合生产具有国际竞争力的产品,弥补了我国有竞争力企业组织缺失的不足,是对我国不完善金融体系有效替代和弥补.按地区分组检验显示我国中西部地区金融扭曲对FDI流入的影响效应大于东部地区.     

东道国禀赋条件、制度安排与FDI区位选择

文章研究发现:东道国的经济规模、双边贸易距离对FDI的区位选择具有普遍影响;东道国的禀赋条件和制度安排对FDI的区位选择具有不可忽视的作用,并在不同组别表现出差异性;流入高、中收入组的FDI更多的受"市场"因素驱动,而流入低收入组的FDI更多地受到"非市场"因素影响。同时,无论全样本还是细分组,FDI的区位选择都表现出明显的"制度接近性"特征。     

金融深化对外商直接投资溢出效应的影响

本文利用协整分析深入探讨了我国金融体系的发展、FDI引入与经济增长之间的关系。结果显示FDI与经济增长明显正相关，而金融深化对FDI溢出效应具有显著的影响作用。这意味着我国在不断利用FDI促进经济增长的过程中，要特别注重金融发展，尤其要提高我国目前金融深化的水平。     

金融发展门槛、FDI与区域经济增长方式

金融发展是决定东道国吸收FDI溢出效应的重要因素。文章梳理了FDI通过金融市场影响全要素生产率和要素积累进而促进经济增长的传导机制,并以金融发展为门槛变量构建门槛回归模型,既实证考察了FDI对人均实际GDP增长率影响的门槛效应,也检验了FDI通过全要素生产率、国内投资和人力资本间接影响经济增长的门槛效应。研究表明:随着金融发展程度的提高,FDI对人均实际GDP的拉动作用会逐渐增加;在金融发展程度较低地区,FDI主要通过促进国内投资及增加物质资本积累来实现经济增长;在金融发展程度中等地区,FDI可以通过物质资本积累和人力资本积累两种方式来实现经济增长;在金融发展程度较高地区,FDI既可以通过提高全要素生产率来实现经济增长,也可以通过要素积累来实现经济增长。     

外商直接投资对东道国人类发展的影响

外商直接投资(FDI)对东道国的影响是多方面的,仅从经济发展的角度研究具有局限性,会导致对引进FDI的成本和收益做出错误估计.本文从一个更全面的视角重新审视FDI对东道国的影响,分析了FDI对东道国人类发展的影响及作用机制,并提出相关政策建议.     

对外负债结构与国内制度:中国引进外资为何以FDI为主

股本、债务类资金在一国吸收外资中的占比与该国法治、产权保护等社会公共制度和金融制度密切相关。当两种制度都较落后时,外资流入以债务资金特别是官方借贷为主。社会公共制度的不断完善,将促进FDI的增长,但FDI在对外负债中占比较高,可能反映一国金融体系还不是很发达。当社会公共制度和金融制度都较完善时,国外证券融资尤其是债券融资将占主导,FDI和银行信贷处于次要地位。当前中国FDI在对外负债中占比过高,很大程度上是金融发展滞后的结果,如民营企业融资受到歧视,金融市场不发达、分散风险的能力弱等。     

人民币汇率水平对FDI流入的影响分析

汇率水平是影响FDI流动规模及方向的重要因素。本文基于人民币汇率及我国利用外资政策调整的背景,分析了人民币汇率水平对FDI流入的竞争力效应、区位效应、部门效应及财富效应。分析表明,人民币汇率水平通过竞争力效应影响FDI流入;不同行业、不同区域来源的FDI对人民币汇率水平变化具有不同的效应。此外,汇率水平的调整还通过财富效应影响着FDI流入方式。这些结论对评估人民币汇率调整对外资流入的影响具有一定政策内涵。     

跨国公司对外直接投资空间转移的影响因素分析

经济全球化的发展使得跨国公司对外直接投资(FDI)的目标区位及其决定因素也发生了变化。本文分析了流入发达国家和发展中国家的不同类型FDI的区位选择因素的变化,指出了促使FDI在各个区位之间进行转移的影响因素,并且给出了一个FDI空间转移的一般模式。文章最后指出东道国政府需要根据跨国公司所关注的区位优势的变动,改进并创造自己特有的区位优势,以保持对FDI的持续的吸引力。     

外商直接投资激励对产业升级影响的分析

FDI如何影响东道国的产业发展?有关产业结构与FDI之间关系的理解不仅不充分,而且还存在许多争论,比如"促进论"和"抑制论",等等。本文试图研究FDI激励政策在产业结构升级中的影响机制。本文的模型表明,FDI激励政策对产业升级的影响取决于两方面因素,一是东道国与投资母国之间产业技术差距,二是东道国产业的市场结构。此外,本文还有一个重要发现,外资企业的中间产品需求及导致的中间产品本地化生产,是促进产业结构升级的关键因素。     

Optimal Exit Costs of Foreign Direct Investment

This paper examines the optimal policy on exit costs of foreign direct investment for a host country considering the impact of varying income level and host country’s risk aversion against volatile FDI flows. Based on a dynamic model about the impact of the exit costs on FDI inflows and capital formation, we demonstrate that a host country should determine the exit cost considering two counterbalancing factors, that is, facilitating higher FDI inflows and reducing volatility of FDI inflows. When a host country is less vulnerable to volatility with inelastic risk aversion against FDI volatility, it is optimal for the host country with a negative income shock to take a more aggressive approach to induce FDI inflows by lowering exit costs. However, if the host country is more vulnerable to volatility with elastic risk aversion, the host country is advised to take a conservative approach by increasing exit costs to reduce FDI volatility. These findings, supported by the OECD data on 42 countries’ exits costs, implicate that developing countries are recommended to lower exit costs to induce higher FDI inflows when they are not highly vulnerable to volatility shocks.     

探讨金融市场发展对提升外商直接投资质量的作用

外商直接投资通过溢出效应可以促进东道国经济的持续增长,但这种促进作用的实现受到东道国"吸收能力"的影响。金融市场发展是提升吸收能力的一个重要因素。实证研究表明,金融市场信贷规模的扩大以及两者间的交互作用,有助于增强FDI对经济增长的促进作用。不过,目前我国由金融市场发展而决定的FDI溢出效应尚不明显,为此,本文提出了如何推动国内金融市场发展提升FDI质量的相关政策建议。     

Domestic interest rate,foreign direct investment,and corruption

It has been argued that foreign direct investment can exert upward or downward pressure on the domestic interest rate depending on foreign investors’ relative weights on internal and external finance with respect to the domestic economy. Additionally, a country’s level of corruption can influence firms’ ability to obtain external finance. We find that across countries a 1 percent increase in FDI inflows (outflows) is more likely to reduce the domestic interest rate by as much as 0.7 (1) percent. This empirical association between domestic interest rates and FDI flows is non-monotonically contingent on a country’s level of corruption.

     

Determinants of foreign direct investment in Cambodia

This paper analyses the determinants of the factors that might influence inward FDI in Cambodia by referring to its economic, geographic, and political characteristics. Using exclusive unbalanced panel data sets during 1995–2005, for both approved and realized FDI for, respectively, seventeen and fifteen home countries, the estimation results show that the determinants of approved FDI and realized FDI are somewhat similar. The FDI home country's GDP, its bilateral trade with the host country and the exchange rate have a positive impact on inward FDI flows into Cambodia. As expected, geographic distance negatively affects the level of FDI inflows in Cambodia.     

How Does Country Risk Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?

Using the overall FDI inflows for 89 countries during the period from 1985 to 2007, we empirically investigate the effects on inward FDI of various components of political and financial risk. We examine the effects of not only the level of these risks but also their changes over time. One of the major findings is that among the political and financial risks, only the political risk is adversely associated with FDI inflows. Specifically, not only the initially low level of political risk, but also a decrease in the level of political risk helps to bring a greater amount of FDI inflows. On the other hand, lower financial risk does not attract FDI inflows, especially to developing countries. Among the various components of political risk, in the sample of developing countries only, it is found that internal conflict, corruption, military in politics, and bureaucracy quality are inversely related to inward FDI flows.     

Financial constraints and foreign direct investment: firm-level evidence

Low productivity is an important barrier to the cross-border expansion of firms. But firms may also need external finance to shoulder the costs of entering foreign markets. We develop a model of multinational firms facing real and financial barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI), and we analyze their impact on the FDI decision. Theoretically, we show that financial constraints can affect highly productive firms more than firms with low productivity because the former are more likely to expand abroad. We provide empirical evidence based on a detailed dataset of German domestic and multinational firms which contains information on parent-level financial constraints as well as on the location the foreign affiliates. We find that financial factors constrain firms’ foreign investment decisions, an effect felt in particular by firms most likely to consider investing abroad. The locational information in our dataset allows exploiting cross-country differences in contract enforcement. Consistent with theory, we find that poor contract enforcement in the host country has a negative impact on FDI decisions.     

金融市场、FDI与全要素生产率增长

本文主要研究金融市场对外商直接投资的影响及其作用渠道。本文运用我国28个省、市、自治区的面板数据进行实证分析,研究结果表明,当前我国金融市场发展不平衡,金融市场影响FDI促进经济增长以及其作用渠道在我国东、中、西部各有不同。在完善的金融市场支撑下,FDI外溢效应得以释放,FDI通过提高TFP推动经济增长;在金融市场发展落后的地区,物质资本的积累依然是经济增长受益于FDI的主要渠道。     

FDI、金融发展与经济增长——一个分析框架及基于中国数据的经验检验

厂商间的联系效应是FDI推动经济增长的重要途径,东道国金融发展水平越高,联系效应就越明显,经济增长就越快.通过经验检验,本文没有发现中国金融发展与FDI的结合显著地促进了联系效应的发挥,究其原因,主要在于中国金融发展的低水平.因此,推进中国金融制度变迁,实现金融市场化与自由化,提升金融发展水平,是强化联系效应、促进经济增长的重要选择.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Income Inequality in Southeast Asia: a Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis, 1990–2013

This paper examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and income distribution in the host country as measured by the Gini coefficient. After providing some background and reviewing the extant literature, it undertakes a panel unit root and cointegration analysis that tests whether FDI has a non-linear impact on income inequality in seven selected Southeast Asian countries over the period 1990 to 2013. The paper finds strong evidence for panel cointegration using the Pedroni Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. Thus, it proceeds to utilize the group-mean fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) procedure to generate long-run estimates that are unbiased and consistent. The FMOLS estimator is also extremely accurate even in panels with very heterogeneous serial correlation dynamics, fixed effects, and endogenous regressors. The results confirm the hypothesis that FDI inflows tend to raise income inequality in the short run but reduce it in the long run. In this study, the Gini index starts decreasing after FDI inflows as a percentage of GDP reaches 5.6. The fact that the Gini coefficient reaches its maximum at a relatively low level of FDI inflows suggests that sample countries are endowed with substantial absorptive capacity. In other words, they will shift into the new technological paradigm quickly, thus supporting pro-globalization claims that, on balance, FDI is more beneficial than harmful.     

应对国际资本流人结构多元化

国际经验表明,不同的国际资本流入结构对一国的金融稳定有重要意义。本文分析了我国以直接投资为主的国际资本流入结构的决定因素,研究了这些因素的变化趋势,认为多元化和波动性是国际资本流入结构的发展方向,就防范由此带来的外部冲击提出了政策建议。