Can Openness Help Make a Miracle?

Several empirical studies indicate that there is a positive relationship between openness to international trade and growth. Lucas (1988) argues that this relationship poses a paradox for neo-classical theory because trade liberalisation produces only limited level effects, not long-run growth effects, in neo-classical growth models. This paper attempts to resolve Lucas paradox by adding production sectors to the basic one-sector Solow model. This paper demonstrates that these multi-sector models are consistent with the empirical links between openness and growth. These models also blur the traditional distinctions between exogenous and endogenous growth theory. As a result, they substantially complicate the task of discriminating between exogenous and endogenous growth episodes in empirical data.     

Cultural biasses and levels of living indices

Summary This article examines various levels of living indices, evaluates them as tools of social engineering; and attempts to show that such indices, when applied to underdeveloped countries, are culturally biassed. Chief consequence of such a bias is that development programs tend to be modeled on the; pattern of development of the more economically and technolegically advanced countries and tha t alternative models are thus ruled out.     

Short-run forecasts of consumer expenditures based on the linear expenditure systems

Summary The main purpose of this paper was to estimate various alternative expenditure systems for the Canadian economy using quarterly data and then to evaluate the performance of the models on the basis of short-run predictions. The results indicate that although the predictive performance of all the estimated models is similar, there is significant evidence in support of the LES. While a better evaluation of the models would consider the error structure in greater detail, that is a task for further research. For quarterly Canadian data, the LES provides somewhat better predictions than its competitors and satisfies all the theoretical criteria and restrictions imposed by its specification.     

Total factor productivity of Korean manufacturing industries: Comparison of competing models with firm-level data

This paper presents the parametric estimation of the rates of technical change and total factor productivity (TFP) growth of 7462 Korean manufacturing firms over the period 1987–2007. Two alternative formulations of technical change measured by the time trend and the general index approaches are estimated with panel data models assuming flexible functional forms. Several extensions of each approach are also considered and their benefits and limitations are discussed. In addition to making estimates of the TFP growth and its decomposition, the paper compares the parametric TFP growth measure with the non-parametric Solow residual serving as a benchmark. Several hypotheses related to technology level, firm sizes, industrial sectors, skill biased technological change and macroeconomic and industrial policies are tested to explain the growth patterns and heterogeneity in technical change, input biases and TFP growth rates. Using second regression analysis, the paper explores the determinants of TFP growth and their policy implications.     

Productivity, Growth and Economic Integration in the Southern China Region

Since the late 1970s, the economies of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Guangdong and Fujian together have formed one of the fastest growing regions in the world. Rapid growth in trade and investment flows among these economies has led to anincreasingly integrated sub‐regional economic bloc. How has economic integration affected productivity performance among the economies involved? Has regionalintegration led to convergence in growth and efficiency? These are some of the questions that this paper attempts to deal with. Both time‐series and panel‐data models have been employed to examine productivity, technological progress and efficiency in the four economies.     

China＇s Economic Growth： International Spillovers

China's economic development since 1978 is one of the most significant events in recent history. Many aspects of this development have been extensively analyzed in the published literature. However, the implications of China's growth for other countries have been relatively neglected. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature. The paper first presents some facts on China's role in the world economy, and then measures the impact of China's growth on growth in the rest of the world in both the short term and the long term. Short‐run estimates based on vector autoregression and error correction models suggest that spillover effects of China's growth have increased in recent decades. Long‐term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.     

The Property/Liability Insurance Cycle: A Comparison of Alternative Models

The objective of this paper is to compare alternative models of insurance pricing as theories of the property-liability underwriting cycle. The existing literature has focused on comparing two models, the financial pricing and capacity constraint models. However, these are not the only relevant models. We show that six alternative models imply the same general form of the pricing equation. We apply the model to data on stock property-liability insurers for the period 1935-1997. We find that the actuarial model and the capacity constraint hypothesis are the only theoretical models that are consistent with the data.     

The assessment: real interest rates

The assessment attempts to provide a broad explanation of thepost-war pattern of real interest rates, drawing on the theoreticaland empirical papers in this issue of the >Oxford Review. Itis argued that the concept of the 'neutral' rate of interest,at which the economy grows at its productive potential withoutchanges in the inflation rate, provides a helpful frameworkfor understanding these developments. The neutral rate providesa bridge between, on the one hand, the fundamental determinantsof real returns, as suggested by models of economic growth and,on the other hand, the functioning of asset markets and theoperating procedures of central banks. The change in policystance towards tighter money at the beginning of the 1980s isseen as having had long-lasting effects, especially when accountis taken of the fiscal stance.     

一个以劳动力素质为核心的教育与经济增长关系模型——基于巴罗指标和中国31年相关数据的经验检验

教育对增长的影响主要是通过劳动力素质"节点"实现的.进入知识经济时代的今天,劳动力素质已逐步成为社会经济发展的核心,以物化资本来衡量人的作用已暴露出了许多缺陷.本文尝试放弃一些生产函数模型的传统做法,提出以体现教育作用的劳动力素质作为增长要素的评价标准,这与将劳动力资本化的人力资本作为评价标准相比,必将是一种挑战,无疑对指导教育和以人为本的现代社会经济发展具有重要现实意义.     

Human and knowledge capital: A contribution to the empirics of state economic growth

Considerable debate persists over the prospects for regional economic convergence and the nature of economic growth in a sub-national context. Although endogenous growth theories have been invoked to explain persistent regional income gaps and related empirical phenomena, traditional models have yet to be fully discredited. This paper utilizes a more complete specification of a traditional growth model in an effort to better explain variations in regional per capita income and growth levels. The authors' effort involves a panel analysis of U.S. Gross State Product data that enables controlling for variations in underlying production technologies. They focus on the important role of both human and knowledge capital in specifying regional dimensions of productivity and growth. The use of alternative and unique definitions for knowledge capital inputs leads to an improved empirical understanding of the regional growth process.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Nov. 11–14, 1999.     

企业产权结构和隶属层级对生产率的影响

本文基于企业调研数据,利用数据包络分析法测算出企业的技术效率、生产率变化及其构成,并运用计量模型实证研究了企业产权结构和隶属层级对技术效率和生产率变化的影响。研究表明,国有企业的技术效率最低,但生产率增长较快,且生产率增长主要来源于效率改善;中央主管企业作为一类特殊的国有垄断企业,不仅技术效率低,而且生产率无显著增长。     

企业财务危机形成机理和防范研究：一个文献综述

目前,学术界对企业财务危机形成机理及防范的研究主要集中在对财务危机定义和标志的界定、财务危机预测方法和模型的确定、财务危机成因的分析及财务危机的处置等几方面。基于此,本文在对国内外专家对上述问题研究的相关文献进行梳理的基础上,对企业财务危机形成机理和防范研究的发展趋势进行展望。     

The Korean Economy in Transition: In Search for a New Model

Abstract

Prior to the 1997 financial crisis, the Korean economy had based its growth policies on East Asia's economic catch-up model which was based mainly on the Japanese development experience. However, the events that lead to the 1997 crisis and the changes instituted in the Korean economy after the crisis have put to question whether the traditional East Asian growth model will continue to be viable. This paper examines two alternative models of development, namely the “Anglo-Saxon” and the “Continental European” models, and evaluates their relevance for Korea's future development challenges. Despite many common features these models share, they are also quite distinctive with regard to their treatment of the labor market system and the role of government. By focusing on the model's capacity to expand employment and to provide sustainable growth as the most important criteria, it is suggested that Korea should follow the “Anglo-Saxon model”, at least in the short- to medium-term. In comparing Korea's economy with other advanced economies when they were at the similar stage of development, it is found that Korea's growth potential lags behind that of countries such as Japan, Germany, Finland, and Ireland. The efficiency of Korea's investment is found to be only slightly better than Japan while it is inferior to all other advanced economies. Despite these challenges, Korea is apparently moving toward the “Continental European model”, with the Korean government increasing its own size and plans for further expenditures on social security and welfare. However, in order to ensure sustainable development with significant job creation, this paper argues that Korea should switch its direction and adopt the “Anglo-Saxon model” as soon as possible.     

The growth of urban centres in Java since 1961

The rate of urban population growth from 1961 to 1980 in the larger cities of Java, Indonesia, is examined using data from the 1980 census. The author notes that these data disregard boundary changes, and he attempts to take these changes into account by presenting revised rates of growth for various major urban centers in Java. The differences among the growth trends of the national capital, the three provincial capitals, and the remaining urban centers are discussed.     

Human capital and economic growth in Spain, 1850–2000

We investigate human capital accumulation in Spain using income- and education-based alternative approaches. We, then, assess human capital impact on labor productivity growth and discuss the implications of its alternative measures for TFP growth. Trends in human capital are similar with either measure but the skill-premium approach fits better Spanish historical experience. As education is a high income elastic good, human capital growth computed with the education-based approach seems upward biased for the recent past. Human capital provided a positive albeit small contribution to labor productivity growth facilitating technological innovation.     

贸易模式结构变化与我国经济增长

本文主要是分析贸易模式结构的变化,即中国产业内贸易变化趋势对中国经济增长的促进作用,通过分析产业内贸易促进经济增长的机制,以及相关的数据实证分析得出结论,并提出政策上的建议。     

Capital utilization in Japan's lost decade: A neoclassical interpretation

This paper attempts to reconcile the controversy regarding Japan's total factor productivity during its slump in the 1990s by clarifying the role of capital utilization. Hayashi and Prescott (2002) emphasized that the decline in the exogenous total factor productivity growth rate was the main cause. However, some empirical studies have also pointed out that the fall in capital utilization rates accounted for a large part of the decline in the total factor productivity growth rate. In this study we incorporate variable capital utilization into a neoclassical growth model, calculate total factor productivity taking into account capital utilization, and simulate the aggregate output and capital-output ratio. We found that although our total factor productivity growth rate in the 1990s is consistent with empirical studies, our simulation can explain the observed data. This result indicates the importance of capital utilization rates as a source of propagation during Japan's depression.     

FDI、出口贸易与经济可持续增长研究——基于联立方程模型对福建经济的实证分析

考察FDI、出口贸易对经济增长和环境污染影响的已有文献,至今的研究往往忽略了同时探讨能源消费与它们之间的互动机制。鉴于此,本文使用1985-2009年的福建省时间序列经济数据,构建了包含能源消费方程在内的四方程联立方程模型进行实证分析,结果表明:一是福建省的经济增长与能源消费、经济增长与工业整体污染之间都存在着倒U型的曲线关系;二是FDI对于减少福建省的能源消费和工业整体污染都是有利的;三是为实现福建经济的可持续增长,政府和企业需要在大幅度提高产品的科技含量和附加价值、加强对内资出口企业的节能与环保技术改造和升级、调整产业结构并引导FDI更多地进入服务业领域以及加大环境污染治理的投资力度等方面制定切实可行的政策措施。     

IMPLICATIONS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THEORY,EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AND APPLICATION TO GROWTH PERFORMANCE IN ZIMBABWE

The influence of exchange rate signals in an economy is very powerful and often pervasive. Moreover, sustained real exchange rate overvaluation will, by distorting resource allocation away from productive activities, eventually lead to drastic adjustments of relative prices and reduction of aggregate economic growth. However, the direct theoretical and empirical link between exchange rate misalignment and macroeconomic indicators still remains to be fully understood. Nonetheless, empirical studies continue to make attempts to understand this relationship by exploring relationships that incorporate different measures of exchange rate misalignment in traditional growth regression models. Based on a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate derived measure exchange rate misalignment, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between real gross domestic product growth and real exchange rate misalignment for Zimbabwe. After controlling for other structural and policy variables, the main findings demonstrate that exchange rate misalignment exerts a negative and highly statistically significant impact on growth. Overall, the results lend support to the hypothesis that chronic real exchange rate overvaluation was a key fundamental behind the post‐2000 economic growth contraction in Zimbabwe.     

Export diversification and income differences reconsidered: The extensive product margin in theory and application

The paper revisits the relationship between GDP per capita and diversification, using classical and more recent trade theory. Three theoretical findings are presented: (i) competitive models yield predictions only for the extensive product margin; (ii) countries continuously diversify their production and exports—a major controversy in the empirical literature; and (iii) causality runs from diversification to GDP per capita, and not the other way around. The theoretical analysis also provides indication for the appropriateness of alternative measures of diversification, and enables estimating the relationship to economic development in a gravity-type parametric specification. Using detailed data on countries’ exports, the case of re-specialization is rejected. Inference of causality reveals some evidence for GDP per capita affecting the level of diversification, but stronger support for diversification affecting GDP per capita. Generally, both variables are highly endogenous as they are both driven by the technology parameters in standard models of economic growth and international trade.