Estimating the impact of green ESIF in Romania using input-output model

This study develops one of the first estimates of the effects of European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) in Romania, in the context of supporting the transition to a low carbon economy across sectors. Using the green Leontief Input-Output model for the Romanian economy, aggregated at the NACE Rev.2 economic sectors, the analysis decomposes the direct, indirect, and induced effects of ESIF on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, following data related to both completed and contracted projects in the programming period 2014–2020. The empirical results reveal the minor, but positive, impact of ESIF on environmental degradation. Green funds under ESIF lead to a reduction of 1.14 million tonnes in the GHG emissions. Larger effects are expected due to the contribution of projects still under development, estimated to reduce GHG emissions by 4.48 million tonnes. Based on the results, the main policy implications were evidenced, given the important role that the state has to play in resource allocation and ensuring the efficiency of funds dedicated to green transition.     

Human Capital Spending,Inequality, and Growth in Middle-Income Asia

Asia’s rapid population aging fortifies the case for strengthening human capital investments. Further, the experience of the newly industrialized economies suggests that human capital investments will be a vital ingredient of the transition from middle income to high income. Those investments can also affect equity and public finances. In this article, we use data from the National Transfer Accounts to empirically analyze the effect of human capital investment in Asian countries on economic growth, inequality, and fiscal balance. Our empirical evidence suggests that human capital investments have a positive effect on labor productivity and, hence, output. The positive effect is stronger for poorer households and, hence, beneficial for equity. We also find that such investments can generate sufficient tax revenues to improve the fiscal balance. Overall, our evidence points to a positive effect of human capital on growth, equity, and fiscal balance in Asia.     

Climate Change and Asset Prices: Are Corporate Carbon Disclosure and Performance Priced Appropriately?

This paper empirically assesses the relevance of information on corporate climate change disclosure and performance to asset prices, and discusses whether this information is priced appropriately. Findings indicate that corporate disclosures of quantitative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and, to a lesser extent, carbon performance are value relevant. We use hand‐collected information on quantitative GHG emissions for 433 European companies and build portfolios based on GHG disclosure and performance. We regress portfolios on a standard four factor model extended for industry effects over the years 2005 to 2009. Results show that investors achieved abnormal risk‐adjusted returns of up to 13.05% annually by exploiting inefficiently priced positive effects of (complete) GHG emissions disclosure and good corporate climate change performance in terms of GHG efficiency. Results imply that, firstly, information costs involved in carbon disclosure and management do not present a burden on corporate financial resources. Secondly, investors should not neglect carbon disclosure and performance when making investment decisions. Thirdly, during the period analysed, financial markets were inefficient in pricing publicly available information on carbon disclosure and performance. Mandatory and standardised information on carbon performance would consequently not only increase market efficiency but result in better allocation of capital within the real economy.     

Financial market development: A potentiating policy choice for the green transition in G7 economies

Despite the overwhelming literature claiming the environmental benefits of the transition towards a green economy, the evidence favoring these broad claims is still obscure and fuzzy. The present study makes two significant contributions to this important yet unsettled issue. First, we segregate the overall green transition in G7 economies into three different manifestations i.e., Green Energy, Green Industry, and Green Trade, to evaluate their idiosyncratic effects on the environment. Second, we assess the moderating role of financial development in green transition and ultimately in achieving the COP-26 targets. Our findings indicate that the transition towards green energy and the green industrial sector improves environmental quality, and the benefits are more pronounced with a high degree of financial development. In contrast, the transition towards green trade does not help in improving environmental quality and may have some adverse effects; however, financial development could mitigate some of these undesirable effects and help combat carbon emissions. The study emphasizes that policymakers should view financial development as a crucial policy choice to achieve COP-26 targets owing to its benign environmental impact.     

Green property finance and CO2 emissions in the building industry

Contributing about 40% of the world's annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the building industry is tasked with reducing its energy consumption and its carbon footprint in accordance with the Paris Agreement. This study investigates the relationship between green property finance and the building industry's CO₂ emissions across 98 high-income and developing economies for the period 2012–2018. Our results show that although green property finance expansions are significantly and negatively related to the industry's CO₂ emissions in the full sample, this result is more evident for developing nations. This is a significant outcome for these countries since many of them are experiencing rapid but unchecked population growth and strong oil consumption. Policies to maintain this development during the COVID-19 pandemic are crucial because this crisis has curtailed the availability of green finance facilities, which has either slowed down or reversed any progress made.     

气候融资:全球形势及中国问题研究

气候融资不仅是国际气候谈判的筹码,也是全球应对气候变化的融资需要和各国促进绿色经济发展的要求。在当前欧美经济尚难以从低谷中恢复的背景下,对气候资金机制的国际谈判和国内创新也提出了更高的要求。中国作为最大的发展中国家和最大的碳排放国,满足不断增长应对气候变化和绿色增长的资金需求已是当务之急。中国是国际气候资金筹集和运用得最好的发展中国家之一,但仍需认清当前全球气候融资来源存在较大不确定性,且资金流向不平衡,国际气候融资的形式和实质间存在较大差距。同时,我们对气候资金的管理、筹措及运用仍存在诸多问题。因此,从管理上,应完善与规划本国气候融资的整体框架,明确气候融资的管理部门,出台系列气候融资政策。在资金筹措和运用上,应保持吸引国际气候资金的优势,并发挥财政性工具和金融性工具的作用,大力吸引国内气候资金,引导资金在减缓和适应气候变化两个领域平衡投入。     

绿色金融促进了中国出口贸易发展吗?

金融发展如何影响国际贸易增长一直是贸易领域的重要研究话题。本文以原中国银行业监督管理委员会2012年对外公布的《绿色信贷指引》政策为准自然实验,采用双重差分法对绿色金融与中国出口贸易发展之间的因果关系进行识别。研究显示,绿色金融能够显著促进中国出口贸易发展,改善出口贸易的集约边际和扩展边际,优化出口贸易的量价结构;绿色金融带来的出口促进作用,就不同的样本分类存在异质性。渠道研究发现,绿色金融能够通过缓解出口方面临的融资约束水平,进而对出口贸易产生积极作用。稳健性检验表明,在考虑双重差分法设定条件、安慰剂检验、极端值影响、零贸易问题等后,绿色金融对出口贸易的积极作用依然成立。本文研究证实了绿色金融是影响中国出口增长的重要因素,绿色金融政策能够带来生态环境改善和出口贸易发展的双赢局面,这为中国近年来大力推进绿色金融体系构建提供了来自现实层面的有效证据。     

用活万亿“闲”钱

2010年是我国现代国库制度建设10周年。在这一年的工作要点中,财政部国库司(国库支付中心)明确提出:进一步健全和完善中央国库现金管理运作机制,积极稳妥开展地方国库现金管理试点。由国库现金如何更好地进行市场化理财,引深到财政性资金如何更好地与金     

Bringing Back the Jobs Lost to Covid-19: The Role of Fiscal Policy

Covid-19 induced job losses occurred predominantly in industries with intensive worker–client interaction as well as in pink-collar and blue-collar occupations. We study the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize employment by occupation and industry during the Covid-19 crisis. We use a multisector, multioccupation macro-economic model and investigate different fiscal-policy instruments that help the economy recover faster. We show that fiscal stimuli foster job growth for hard-hit pink-collar workers, whereas stimulating blue-collar job creation is more challenging. Only a cut in labor income taxes generates a substantial number of blue-collar jobs.     

How Should Slovenia Design Fiscal Policies in the Government Debt Crisis?

We investigate how fiscal policies should be designed in Slovenia during the next few years. Using the SLOPOL model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyze the effects of different fiscal policies using simulations and determine optimal fiscal policies for Slovenia. We show that the optimal design of fiscal policies is rather close to the austerity course as detailed in the Slovenian Stability Program, revealing the small scope of possible alternative fiscal stabilization policies available due to the relatively low effectiveness of the fiscal instruments with respect to their influence on the business cycle in the Slovenian economy.     

Halo effect or fallen angel effect? Firm value consequences of greenhouse gas emissions and reputation for corporate social responsibility

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are perceived to have negative consequences for society at large by contributing to potential climate change and represent a potential cash drain from firms from exposure to future regulatory, abatement, and compliance costs. Beginning in 2010, US companies are required to report their GHG emissions to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We utilize these data for 2010–2014 to examine whether the possible adverse firm value impact of these GHG emissions is alleviated or exacerbated by the firm’s reputation for corporate social responsibility. Our findings suggest that there is no halo effect, i.e., a firm’s reputation for social responsibility (as reflected in its CSR score) does not protect the firm from the adverse firm value effects of GHG emissions. Rather, our findings suggest a fallen angel effect, i.e., for any given level of GHG emissions, the higher the firm’s CSR score, the greater the adverse impact on firm value. In other words, the decline in firm value due to the adverse impact of GHG emissions is compounded by the hit to the firm’s reputation for corporate social performance. Our paper contributes to the sparse prior US literature on the firm value effects of GHG emissions. Further, by providing scholarly evidence on the existence of a fallen angel effect, our findings suggest that boards and managers of firms that provide voluntary CSR disclosures cannot afford to be complacent about their GHG emissions.     

Green growth strategies—Korean initiatives

Korea has embarked on a far-reaching green growth strategy that promises to lay the foundations for a transition from a predominantly ‘brown’ to a green industrial system. In this paper the key features of the Korean approach to formulating and implementing a green growth strategy are outlined, and the progress achieved so far (2009–2012) is reviewed. Comparisons with China's green development strategy, as embodied in the 12th Five Year Plan (2011–2015), present themselves – in that both strategies are concerned with industrial restructuring and the building of new growth engines designed to create export platforms for the 21st century. Reductions in levels of carbon emissions flow from these industrial policy initiatives. The paper concludes that the Korean strategy is carefully crafted and implemented with full government commitment and leadership, demonstrating that such commitment is feasible in a democracy. What cannot be guaranteed is continuing commitment from successive political administrations.     

改革成本支付与转轨期财政运行的关系分析

转轨财政不同于一般财政的特殊性是其具有支付改革成本的职能,支付改革成本给我国转轨财政带来了不小的压力和影响.要减小财政改革成本压力,须进行两层面创新,即在理论上要突破单纯从市场失灵角度来研究我国转轨财政职能的局限,确立支付改革成本在我国财政职能体系中的地位;在实践上要改变积极财政政策从"以直接投资为主"直接支撑经济增长转移到"以支付改革成本为主",从而建立和完善经济增长的制度环境上来.     

我国地方政府间财政支出竞争的动因分析

地方政府在发展经济的过程中,由于行政区域的独立性使得地方政府之间表现出经济总量的竞争。而这种竞争需要工具手段,从而进一步表现为发挥财政功能的税收竞争和财政支出竞争。其中对于税收竞争,已经有了较多的论述,而对于财政支出竞争,在很多方面还是一个新问题。并且这种竞争在成为地方政府发展经济的重要外部动力时,也出现了多方面的问题。为此,本文探讨了财政支出竞争产生的动因,以期为后期解决财政支出竞争所带来的问题更加具有针对性。     

Second-best tax policy and natural resource management in growing economies

This paper investigates the exploitation of natural resources in a growing economy within a second-best fiscal policy framework. Agents derive utility from two types of consumption goods—one which relies on a natural resource input and one which does not—as well as from leisure and from natural resource amenity values. We connect second best policy to essential components of utility by considering the elasticity of substitution among each of the four utility arguments. The results illustrate potentially important relationships between amenity values and leisure. When amenity values are complementary with leisure, for instance when natural resources are used for recreation, optimal taxes on goods produced with natural resources generally increase over time. On the other hand, optimal taxes on goods produced from natural resources generally decrease over time when leisure and amenity values are substitutes. Under some parameterizations, complex dynamics leading to non-monotonic time paths can emerge.     

Price discovery analysis of green equity indices using robust asymmetric vector autoregression

Covering the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), we perform a price discovery analysis to determine Granger causality relationships for a range of prominent green equity indices with the broader equity and commodity markets. Three pivotal contributions are made. Firstly, an expanded database is used that gives greater depth to the price discovery analysis relative to previous literature. Prominent global, regional and sectoral green equity indices are considered, as well as a broader set of commodities including crude oil, natural gas and emissions. The inclusion of natural gas recognises its role as the transition fossil fuel to a low carbon economy. In addition to the main European Union Allowance traded under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, Certified Emissions Reduction (CER) prices are also included in the emissions database to capture activities under the global Clean Development Mechanism. Secondly, a problem with conventional symmetric vector autoregression is that its implementation commonly leads to large occurrences of insignificant parameters. Therefore, as a first layer of robustness, we utilise an asymmetric vector autoregression model to perform the Granger causality testing, which addresses this limitation by means of allowing different lag specifications among the system variables. Thirdly, explicit recognition is made in our study of the multiple comparisons bias inherent in our high-dimensional testing framework, which is the non-negligible likelihood of identifying statistically significant results by pure chance alone. As a second layer of robustness, we utilise a generalised Holm correction method to control this source of bias. At conventional statistical significance levels, we find that the FTSE 100 and FTSE Global Small Cap equity indices have a causal effect on all of the green equity indices, with limited evidence of causality in the opposite direction. Within the green equity markets, we find evidence that the chosen sectoral index has a Granger causal effect on one of the two global indices considered and also the regional index. This price transmission provides modest evidence that the global green economy is becoming ever more integrated. NBP gas is shown to have a causal effect on all of the green equity indices, whereas we find no such evidence for Brent oil. The former observation may reflect the increasing role of gas as the transition fuel to a low carbon economy, playing a key role in decisions on power generation mix and associated capital investment. Finally, we find no evidence that EUA or CER prices have a causal effect on green stocks, consistent with previous findings and likely reflecting the excessively low prices being commanded for compliance permits in the European emissions markets.     

财政政策引导金融机构支农有效吗?——涉农贷款增量奖励政策的效果评价

财政支农与金融支农的协调配合是当前国家支农和减贫的重要政策创新之一。县域金融机构涉农贷款增量奖励政策自2009年起在全国部分省区进行了多轮试点,是一项利用财政手段引导金融资源向农村配置的重要举措。基于我国各地区农业经济发展数据,本研究采用渐进双重差分方法评估涉农贷款增量奖励政策是否促进了我国农业经济的发展。实证结果显示:在控制气候条件、要素投入、地方支农财政支出、地方金融发展和农业产业化等变量后,涉农贷款奖励政策显著激励了各地区粮食产量和农民收入的增长,即用财政政策引导金融机构支农确实促进了我国农业经济的发展。一系列检验证明估计结果是稳健的,且由于地方财政分担比例不同等原因导致涉农贷款奖励政策对中西部地区的影响更为明显。机制分析发现,奖励政策主要是通过提高农业机械化水平和优化农村交通基础设施的方式促进了农业经济发展。本研究表明应继续推进财政引导金融支农的政策,为振兴乡村战略提供更多支撑。     

Climate transition risk in sovereign bond markets

Is climate transition risk factored into sovereign bond markets? We find that carbon dioxide emissions, natural resources rents, and renewable energy consumption—as measures of transition risk—significantly affect yields and spreads. Countries with lower carbon emissions incur lower borrowing costs. Advanced countries with reduced earnings from natural resources rents and increased renewable energy consumption are associated with lower borrowing costs, which differ from the effects in developing countries. Given the threat that climate change poses to the global economy and the fast materialization of transition risk, we advocate an increase in the significance of climate transition risk factors as determinants in sovereign bond markets.     

Greenhouse Gas Disclosure and Emissions Benchmarking

I examine the effects of the U.S. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reporting Program, which requires thousands of industrial facilities to measure and report their GHG emissions. I show that facilities reduce their GHG emissions by 7.9% following the disclosure of emissions data. The evidence indicates that benchmarking—whereby facilities use the disclosures of their peers to assess their own relative GHG performance—spurs emission reductions. Firms' concerns about future legislation appear to motivate this behavior and measurement alone (without disclosure) seems not to reduce emissions. My study highlights how mandatory GHG disclosure can create real effects for peers.     

Measuring Regional Fiscal Transfers Induced by National Budgets

National budgets typically induce a substantial redistribution of resources across regions. In this paper I propose an economic definition of such implicit fiscal transfers, which, in the absence of gains or losses out of centralizing fiscal policy, is particularly suitable for territorial equity discussions. In my view the fiscal transfer of a region is equivalent to the region's willingness to pay for achieving fiscal independence. Such implicit transfers are also characterized in the context of a model where public debt is exclusively motivated by the tax-smoothing principle. It turns out that the fiscal transfer of a region can be computed by adding the region's primary balance and an allocation of the national primary deficit according to a linear combination of the region's share of receipts and expenditures. Thus, in general the computation of these implicit transfers requires detailed information about parameter values, which may not be available in practice. Some possible solutions are discussed.