Australian futures: Freshwater ecosystems and human water usage

Historical legacies of land-use change together with growing demands for water resources from agricultural, industrial and urban sectors have extensively degraded many of the freshwater ecosystems of Australia. Recent and rapid declines in the condition of these ecosystems indicate that current patterns of water consumption are ecologically unsustainable, particularly in agricultural landscapes. We use three scenarios of water resource use and development over the next 50 years to examine the implications of each in terms of their likely impact on freshwater ecosystems. These scenarios encompass agricultural, industrial and urban water use, and propose trends in water use and management rather than a specific set of predictions. We see two of these scenarios, those of business-as-usual and economic growth, as being ecologically unsustainable, leading to significant declines in the biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Only under our ecological-sustainability scenario do we foresee possible large-scale improvements in the condition of Australia's aquatic ecosystems. This scenario will require major shifts in water use patterns and require careful planning and consideration of a range of social and economic issues. In all scenarios large-scale ecosystem drivers, such as climate change and salinity, will become major impediments to improvements in the ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems.     

Internet-based tourism services: business issues and trends

This paper assesses the current state of development among the Internet-based providers of tourism services. The study focuses on leading intermediary businesses and enabling groups: travel agents; specialist service providers; reservation technology providers; and public agencies. In studying some 50 leading web sites, spanning a range of differing groups of intermediaries, we examined how travel agent sites seek to differentiate themselves, how public tourist information bodies are harnessing the Internet, and the role of computer reservation technology providers. We also examined factors shaping the future of the Internet: institutional tensions; competition for end users and investors; and end user expectations. The conclusions highlight a number of implications for the further development of tourism services provision within Europe, where the Internet plays a significant role. For example, the extent and pace of social and economic change that Internet derived information is facilitating.     

Future visioning of local climate change: A framework for community engagement and planning with scenarios and visualisation

There is an urgent need for meaningful information and effective public processes at the local level to build awareness, capacity, and agency on climate change, and support planning and decision-making. This paper describes a conceptual framework to meet these requirements by generating alternative, coherent, holistic climate change scenarios and visualizations at the local scale, in collaboration with local stakeholders and scientists. The framework provides a template for a process to integrate emission scenarios with both mitigation and adaptation strategies, and to link local manifestations of impacts and responses with global climate change scenarios. The article outlines the empirical application of this framework in the Local Climate Change Visioning Project in British Columbia, Canada. The project collaboratively localized, spatialized, and visualized possible climate change effects and community responses in the community's ‘backyards’. The article concludes with lessons learned and suggested principles for future visioning efforts to engage communities in possible policy and behavioural choices.     

A health service fit for the 21st century : The Welsh ‘Health and Social Care 2010’ project

‘Health and Social Care 2010’, a project of the Welsh Health Planning Forum, has been designed to link the overall strategy of the National Health Service in Wales with the planning of local health-care strategies. During the first phase of the project, forces that may impact on health and social services in the future have been identified, and consideration has been given to how the services could adapt to the expected changes. The result has been a vision of a new kind of health care based on clusters of services. Testable indicators of the vision's fulfilment have also been identified in the form of nine assumptions regarding specific future developments in the health and social services. Groups at several pilot sites have analysed these assumptions in terms of their achievability and desirability, thus illuminating potential roadblocks in reaching the desired future, as well as creative ways around these problems.     

Confronting tourism's environmental paradox: Transitioning for sustainable tourism

Tourism requires environmental resources as core ingredients and compelling backdrops for the production of tourism experiences. Paradoxically it also depends on the protection of the ecological integrity of these features for sustained competitiveness. This ‘resource paradox’ has epitomized relationships between tourism and the environment for decades. However, unprecedented reportings of the frequency, severity and persistence of adverse weather conditions; climate change; natural disasters; disease outbreaks; and various forms of environmental pollution, cumulatively highlight the urgency for more systematically managing tourism's resource paradox. This paper characterizes the industry's environmental and sustainability performance, and suggests planning and management approaches that will be needed to move it towards a more sustainable future. It uses a case study of ‘sustainability-focused’ tourism destination planning to illustrate the type of collective actions that must occur if the industry is to successfully manage tourism's challenging environmental relationships. It is argued that more collective and vision-oriented approaches to tourism industry planning are needed to address broader and more pervasive environmental and sustainability challenges.     

Managing the landscapes of the Australian Northern Territory for sustainability: Visions, issues and strategies for successful planning

The Northern Territory in Australia is a unique place. The region covers one sixth of the land mass of Australia with a population of only 200 000 people. One third of this population is indigenous and just over half of the land is under Aboriginal land title (mostly communal ownership). The landscapes in this region are still in a relatively good condition yet a large proportion of the indigenous population that reside within them are seen to be living with major social and health problems. The governance of the region is a complex mixture of Federal, Territory, and local Government, as well as indigenous and non-indigenous land ownership. To date, planning has largely been ad hoc and influenced by external factors, with little regard for Aboriginal aspirations for the future. Currently there is growing interest in developing the region which would appear to be associated with a drought that is adversely affecting the agricultural potential of southern States of Australia. This paper discusses some of the issues associated with the lack of a shared vision for the future of the NT. It recommends the use of an integrated holistic approach to planning, as defined by a Leitbild, as a strategy for creating a shared vision and working towards successful sustainable landscape planning. Other strategies put forward include placing an economic value on the ecological and cultural significance of the region, in particular providing real jobs on remote Aboriginal communities through developing enterprises based on sustainable use of wildlife and payment for the ecosystem services that Aboriginal land management provides, and applying more empowering methods of participation in scenario modelling for the future using Geographic Information Systems and other visualisation technology.     

How long might the younger-old live: A predictive model

Life expectancy amongst older people in industrialised countries has been improving over an extended period and still continues to do so. This has ramifications for providers of services to this population, thus necessitating a level of forward planning. Predictive models of remaining life expectancy for older age groups can assist long-term planning processes. This paper presents an extrapolative approach to forecasting remaining life expectancy. Based on logistic modelling of historic mortality and survivorship for the “younger-old” male population of England and Wales over the period 1970-2005, a parsimonious two-parameter model is derived. This model provides a close correspondence to published period life table data. Trends in these parameters are then fitted and extrapolated to enable projections of life expectancy up to 40 years into the future. Alternative assumptions are used to determine a range of future life expectancy trajectories for a 65-year-old male. Occupational pension scheme provision is identified as an area of particular concern in the context of increasing longevity. As an illustration, the life expectancy trajectories are combined with differing discount rate assumptions to generate a number of alternative pension liability scenarios for the extrapolation period.     

土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值响应

本文采用土地利用动态度、土地利用综合指数这两个定量化模型,对2003-2010年内蒙古包头市达茂旗的土地利用变化及由土地利用变化所引起的生态系统服务价值的变化进行了分析.结果表明,达茂旗土地利用结构变化显著,总体的土地利用程度逐年降低,生态系统服务价值也随着当地经济的发展逐渐下降.因此,今后达茂旗的发展一定要提高土地利用效率,注重生态环境质量,合理规划土地利用结构,从而实现土地资源可持续利用和生态、社会、经济的可持续发展.     

Combining backcasting and adaptive management for climate adaptation in coastal regions: A methodology and a South African case study

Developing adaptation strategies for deltaic and coastal regions is a major challenge, due to future uncertainties of climate change and complexity of the social–ecological systems to be managed. This paper investigates how desirable futures or normative scenarios approaches, in particular backcasting, can be used to develop more robust climate strategies in coastal regions. The paper develops a methodology in which participatory backcasting and adaptive management are combined, and its applicability is demonstrated for the Breede–Overberg coastal region in South Africa where a catchment management strategy has been developed. It is concluded that the methodology offers an adequate framework for developing and implementing long-term climate adaptation strategies and policies, including a transition management scheme for intermediate assessments.     

FutureSelf: Emerging digitized life patterns and a personal future simulation system

Unique information sources, available and accessible in digital networked environments, can be used as a data set for the extrapolation of an individual's potential futures. Based on an interactive analysis process, a carefully crafted system using artificial intelligence, data mining processes and behavior adaptive features can generate contextualized interactive personal future simulations in the form of interconnected micro-future scenarios. Micro-future scenarios provide context-sensitive information, alternative future paths and recommendations based on an individual's personal circumstances and her environment. The emerging future narrative can be delivered effectively by using different communication channels and methods in digital environments. The system aims to enhance an individual's awareness of the consequences of her existence by connecting her personal and social actions to a wider social, cultural, political, economical and ecological context.     

Evaluating the use of an integrated forest land-use planning approach in addressing forest ecosystem services conflicting demands: Experience within an Irish forest landscape

There is an increasing demand for genuine public participation in Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) planning to address the various demands for forests to deliver a range of ecosystem services. However, as of yet, there are few developed and tested mechanisms to help authorities and stakeholders with diverse interests to effectively work together to reach a common goal. Integrated Forest Land-Use Planning (IFLUP) is an approach that has the potential to accommodate multi-stakeholders’ demands in the field of SFM planning. In this paper an IFLUP framework process that facilitates stakeholder participation in future-oriented SFM planning is explored. This framework combines scenario analysis and stakeholder collaborative learning. Its application in a case study area in the West of Ireland is outlined and its effectiveness in accommodating conflicting stakeholder demands on forest ecosystem services as well as its potential opportunities and challenges are evaluated.Based on the results and participants evaluation feedback of the IFLUP workshop outcomes, there was a shared view that the IFLUP approach has potential to address conflicting societal demands on forest ecosystem services within local forest landscapes. Likewise, collaborative learning process helps build trust and respect among stakeholder groups as well as improving the legitimacy and acceptance of SFM planning outcomes.     

Social innovation : Change in the mode of provision of services

This paper discusses a particular sort of social innovation: the development of new modes of provision of services for households. It argues that technical and organisational change in the process of service delivery may crucially determine both the sectoral structure of developed economies, and their patterns of time use. The model of service innovation described here provides historical insights, and an analytical framework for considering the likely impact of telematics technologies on future industrial employment patterns.     

Infrastructure public–private partnership project ecosystem – financial and economic positioning of stakeholders

The purpose of this paper is to construct an analytical cash flow-based project model to facilitate project appraisal of both private investors and public sector. With the help of the model that focuses on ecosystem and its stakeholders, it is simpler to identify potential conflicts usually encountered in public–private partnership (PPP) projects. The model construct is based on classical cash flow accounting and cost–benefit analysis. In the model, the flows of cash (private investors) and the flows of costs and benefits (public investors) are integrated in a single framework. The model shows that within the ecosystem the investors' (public vs. private) social, economic and financial targets are not necessarily coinciding. Prospecting of common ground and win–win situations becomes a crucial success factor for any PPP project. The paper discusses the policy and investment strategy implications for successful PPPs.     

内蒙古草原旅游核心利益相关者共赢机制研究

随着内蒙古草原旅游业的不断发展,当地政府、居民、旅游者等开始从草原旅游业的发展中获益,与此同时,矛盾和冲突也逐步显现出来。因此,了解草原旅游发展中涉及的利益主体的需求,探究如何协调他们之间的关系成为人们关注的焦点。本文以希拉穆仁草原为例,基于大量调研,界定了草原旅游核心利益相关者,分析总结了各核心利益主体间的利益诉求及冲突矛盾关系,最后,根据共生理论提出了草原旅游共生单元的利益共享机制、共生环境的联动配合机制、共生界面多样化发展机制以及一体化共生模式的控制与保持机制。     

Re-scaling risk governance using local appraisal and community involvement

This paper describes a risk governance model applied on a local scale, showing the advantages and constraints found during its application. The risk governance model, built on a municipal scale, results from the application of the International Risk Governance Council framework. The model is characterised by the cyclicity between the assessment and management spheres, assuming communication to be essential in all stages. Its application in central Portugal is rooted in a specific knowledge of hazards and their impacts, the human and financial constraints, and the expectations of citizens and stakeholders. The results show that preformatted management solutions derived from national civil protection stakeholders can be adapted to a local physical, social and institutional context. It was found that this depends significantly on the stakeholders’ concerns assessment, as this allows the subsequent risk management options to be adapted and legitimised. As a result, more appropriate land-use regulations and mitigation strategies are being designed, which are related to urban planning, road design, risk sensitisation and communication tools. However, two features are likely to lead to an overlapping of competences and conflicts concerning responsibility for decision-making in the actual civil protection structure: the current constraints on resources on an operational level and the potentially inadequate representation of stakeholders on a strategic level.     

New development: Managing and accounting for sustainable development across generations in public services—and call for papers

Social and environmental justice across generations is a fundamental attribute of sustainable development. In this article, which is also a call for papers for a future theme in Public Money & Management (PMM), we develop our case for further research on how governments and public service organizations seek to address sustainable development in their decision-making processes. We believe that accounting for social and environmental aspects is an underdeveloped area of research and practice that is worthy of further critical enquiry. We therefore call on researchers and practitioners to submit their research to a themed issue of PMM on managing and accounting for sustainable development in public services.     

Contextualizing politicians’ uses of accounting information: reassurance and ammunition

This paper explores the use of accounting information by local government politicians. The authors examined three very typical council decisions in both their policy formulation and decision-making stages, which had different levels of political conflict. During policy formulation, accounting information was used mostly to provide answers—improving understanding. At the decision-making stage, the level of conflict influenced the quantity of information used, as well as the way it was used. Under low political conflict, accounting information primarily provided reassurance, whereas when there were conflicts between majority and opposition politicians, accounting information was used to (de)legitimize political positions and decisions. This paper is one of the first to contextualize politicians’ use of accounting information and has important implications for practice and future research.     

Out-West Products, Inc.: A financial modeling and decision analysis case

The Out-West Products, Inc. instructional case requires students to build a comprehensive financial model to support planning and decision-making. Part 1 of this team-oriented Excel project requires students to construct a baseline model, while Part 2 provides sensitivity analysis and decision-making extensions. The case incorporates cost-volume-profit, accounting income versus cash flow, and benchmarking analyses. Case objectives provide students with a realistic financial modeling experience that includes: building models; linking data across financial statements; testing solutions and analyzing scenarios; and improving critical thinking skills. These objectives closely align to the AICPA Core Competency Framework for Entry into the Accounting Profession. The case can be used in introductory and upper-division managerial accounting, upper-division cost accounting, and MBA managerial accounting courses, and can be modularized to achieve instructor-specific objectives.     

What comes after the welfare state?: A post-welfare development path for the UK

One vision of post-industrial society projects a sane, humane, ecological future. Achievement of this requires societal transformation of almost unprecedented dimensions. This paper offers a preliminary exploration of how changing directions to this kind of future would affect social welfare and social services in the UK. Current community activities which may help accelerate change in local futures are outlined.