THE CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT AND CORPORATE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Agency theory and signalling theory both suggest that firms are motivated to disclose excellence of financial performance in an unambiguous manner. We might expect, therefore, that good financial performance is associated with a clear and readable Chairman's narrative and poor performance with an obscure or misleading message. Extant work linking corporate performance with clarity of executive narrative fails to distinguish sample cases by industry or financial status. This paper seeks to overcome the consequences of such deficiencies explicitly, by conducting a systematic analysis of the relationship between narrative complexity and alternative measures of financial performance, for a matched sample of failed/non-failed companies across common industries. This study employs separate measures of the readability and the understandability of the chairman's narrative and finds them to be significantly related to overall financial performance and individual measures of performance, most notably liquidity. Poor readability is strongly associated with poor financial performance and ease of readability with relative financial success. The implication is that firms actively signal good news while obscuring, perhaps deliberately, messages which convey bad news.     

New development: Macroeconomic fables

This article uses a structural narratology approach to define four archetypal fables concerning managers and organizations, based on whether the narrative involves growth or decline for the protagonist and growth or decline for the organization which the protagonist leads. This approach is applied to three cases: a celebratory-political narrative about the Conservative Party of Canada's victory in the 2011 federal election; Charles Ferguson's Academy Award-winning documentary ‘Inside Job’ about the 2008 financial meltdown; and the ideological-polemical narratives of the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States. The article concludes that narrative analysis helps us understand the structure of these stories and helps us examine and question the assumptions about economic causation that they incorporate.     

A framework for the study of expansion options,loan commitments and agency costs

We consider a firm that operates a single plant and has an expansion option to invest in a new plant. This setup leads to two-sided optimal stopping problems. We analyze optimal expansion timing and quantify the value of the loan commitment that the equityholder obtained from the lender and associated agency costs incurred on the lender's side. Moreover, we incorporate construction period for the new plant, which throws another layer of uncertainty into the model: the parties cannot tell price level of the firm's product when the construction completes. This analysis contrasts with the conventional one-sided stopping models in corporate finance literature. We can study expansion options by viewing a firm's existing operation, bankruptcy threat, and financing decisions all together.     

Bankers on the board and the debt ratio of firms

We investigate the impact that bankers on the board have upon a firm's debt ratio, debt to total capital, 1 year subsequent to their appointment. We find that the presence of lending bankers on a firm's board negatively affects the debt ratio, while the impact of non-lending bankers varies with the firm's probability of financial distress. The results suggest that non-lending bankers provide expertise and certification for distressed firms while exercising a monitoring role for non-distressed firms. In contrast, the results suggest that lenders on the board exercise a monitoring role independent of the firm's financial distress. When combined with established findings in the literature, we conclude that there may be two ways to avoid conflict between a board-appointed banker's fiduciary responsibility and the interests of her bank. When the potential for conflict is high, lenders may forgo board positions, while non-lending bankers may merely alter their role on the board.     

Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option

This paper develops an approach for valuing flexible production systems using contingent claims pricing. Demand curves for our model's underlying assets (output products) may be downward sloping, in contrast with the standard option pricing assumption. Also, our marginal production(exercise) costs may be increasing. In addition, we allow for multiple products and a production capacity constraint. These elements of the model result in complex exercise decisions for the contingent claims which comprise the production system's value. We illustrate our approach by valuing a flexible system that produces two products which have profit margin functions with stochastic parameters.     

The Information Content of Corporate Pension Funding Status in Japan

This paper tests if a firm's pension funding ratio (pension assets/PBO) reveals the management's private information about the firm's operation when the firm can exercise discretion in pension funding. The lax enforcement of pension funding rules and the prevalence of management forecasts make Japanese firms an ideal testing ground. We show that, among firms with large business uncertainty, large accruals, or high effective tax rates, the pension funding ratio predicts the firm's management forecast errors significantly beyond conventional control variable and the effects of pension accounting management. However, the stock market does not appear to incorporate this information immediately.     

Optimal exercise of executive stock options and implications for firm cost

This paper conducts a comprehensive study of the optimal exercise policy for an executive stock option and its implications for option cost, average life, and alternative valuation concepts. The paper is the first to provide analytical results for an executive with general concave utility. Wealthier or less risk-averse executives exercise later and create greater option cost. However, option cost can decline with volatility. We show when there exists a single exercise boundary, yet demonstrate the possibility of a split continuation region. We also show that, for constant relative risk averse utility, the option value does not converge to the Black and Scholes value as the correlation between the stock and the market portfolio converges to one. We compare our model's option cost with the modified Black and Scholes approximation typically used in practice and show that the approximation error can be large or small, positive or negative, depending on firm characteristics.     

Budgetary change at a university: A narrative inquiry

This paper reports the results of a qualitative case study of an Australian University's implementation of a new budget model. To inform our research, we developed a theoretical framework by drawing from neo-institutional sociology, old institutional economics and technical-rational choice. A narrative inquiry was employed to elicit the stories of participants' experiences of the budgetary change in its socio-political and institutional contexts. Through this narrative inquiry, we depart from prior institutional management accounting change studies which have presented change steered by external pressures for conformity and/or legitimacy. Our study shows how budgeting, as a management accounting tool, can be viewed as a rational myth conferring social legitimacy upon organisational participants and their actions. Further, we demonstrate that the emergence of a new management accounting practice is attributed to the demands of technical-rational imperatives, and the existence of internal rationalised dynamics and norms. We highlight and analyse the role and ability of organisational actors to create budgetary change in an institutionalised higher education environment.     

An option pricing approach to corporate dividends and the capital investment financing decision

In light of a growing trend toward viewing dividends as an investable asset class, this article opens up a new perspective on their valuation. We show that dividends can be viewed as options on the cash flow of the firm. That is, a firm either pays zero dividends, in which case the option expires out‐of‐the‐money, or it pays a positive dividend, the value of which corresponds to the option's moneyness. The exercise price is determined by the capital budget, the flexibility of the company to use external financing, and whether it has minimum and maximum dividends. The model is also capable of accommodating a stochastic capital budget, which allows for uncertain growth opportunities and their correlation with the firm's cash flows. We also present an application of the model using actual data for a large multinational company.     

Corporate reporting implication in migrating from defined benefit to defined contribution pension schemes: A focus on the UK

Pensions are intricately linked to employees’ well-being in the latter part of their life and during their working life in that they provide a sense of financial security in retirement. Since the 1980s, pension schemes have changed both in concept and detail with significant consequences for beneficiaries. This paper explores one of the major changes: the migration from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) pension schemes focusing on this change's interface with accounting. In exploring this shift from DB to DC schemes, the paper uses a critical perspective to reflect on this interface including how the change is accounted for in corporate reporting narrative. The key focus is on issues of political economy: it is found in this respect that while wealth is effectively distributed from pension holders efforts are made to legitimise or displace attention from pension changes. An analysis of narratives of corporate annual reports is undertaken to critically explore corporate communication to stakeholders vis-à-vis pension scheme changes. Findings suggest limited and problematic engagement with employees as per the corporate annual report narrative. We also point to a lack of appetite on the part of existing employees to engage employers on these changes. The change is framed to give workers an impression that they are taking responsibility for their future whilst an alternative view is that in actuality the organisation is decoupling from pension responsibility and devolving associated risks to employees for greater profitability. Counter accounting may be a way forward.     

A risk-based approach for pricing American options under a generalized Markov regime-switching model

This paper considers a risk-based approach for pricing an American contingent claim in an incomplete market described by a continuous-time, Markov, regime-switching jump-diffusion model. We formulate the valuation problem as a stochastic differential game and use dynamic programming. Verification theorems for the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman–Issacs (HJBI) variational inequalities of the games are used to determine the seller's and buyer's prices and optimal exercise strategies.     

Asymmetric volatility spillover between oil-importing and oil-exporting countries' economic policy uncertainty and China's energy sector

While the relationship between economic policy uncertainty(EPU) and energy market is of great interest to economist, previous research dose not differentiate the effect from oil-importing countries to oil-exporting countries' EPU on the a country's energy sector. In this paper, we address this issue by testing the effect of importer and exporter's EPU on the largest oil-importing country, China, as oil-importing affected greatly by the economic policy. TVP-FAVAR model is applied to obtain the factors and time-varying coefficients of 21 countries' EPU monthly indexes and energy stock realized volatility. We find that the Chinese energy sector's stock volatility is positively related to EPU shocks and that bad volatility has a stronger impact than good volatility. Second, the volatility spillover from oil-exporting countries' EPU on the Chinese energy sector is stronger than that from oil-importing countries' EPU, with a stronger effect for bad volatility than for good volatility. Finally, The bad volatility spillover and spillover asymmetry is stronger during the crisis periods, such as the debt crisis, energy contention, oil price turbulence, or limited production agreement, both symmetric and asymmetric spillovers increase. Our findings have potentially important implications for the regulators and investors on Chinese oil market with different types of countries' EPU.     

Applying Burke’s Dramatic Pentad to scenarios

Describing the evolution of possible futures in the narrative form is widely practised. However, while stories are intuitively recognized, the ability to compose a comprehensible story is often difficult. Ambiguities or inconsistencies within a scenario-as-story are not simply aesthetic faults, but are failings which can weaken the use of the technique in a learning or decision-making process. This paper provides a working understanding of narrative as a particular kind of knowledge and proposes an adaptation of Kenneth Burke’s Dramatic Pentad as a way to explicitly capture this kind of knowledge within a scenario construction process.     

Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option

Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time-varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two-year lockup with a three-month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with constant relative risk aversion utility and risk aversion of three. The cost of illiquidity can easily exceed 10% if the hedge fund manager can arbitrarily suspend withdrawals.     

Employee stock options with performance conditions: do commonly used valuation heuristics work?

Valuation heuristics are widely used to value traditional time vesting option plans. This study analyses if these heuristics also qualify for valuing performance vesting plans. We examine performance conditions tied to the underlying stock, the stock's performance relative to a stock index, and an earnings measure. The differences between the approximated option values and the values assuming optimal exercise are overall smaller with the performance conditions than without them. In particular, this result holds when the heuristic exercise assumptions are based on the case without performance conditions, which is a considerable simplification in practice.     

Controlling opportunism in vertical contracting when production precedes sales

In a make‐to‐stock vertical contracting setting with private contracts, when retailers do not observe each other's stocks before choosing their prices, an opportunism problem always exist in contract equilibria but public market‐wide Resale Price Maintenance (RPM) can restore monopoly power. However other widely used tools which do not fall under antitrust scrutiny and require only private bilateral contracts, such as buyback contracts, also allow the producer to fully exercise his monopoly power. We conclude that a more lenient policy toward RPM is unlikely to affect the producer's ability to control opportunism.     

Stuck in the middle with who? (Belatedly) engaging with Laughlin while becoming re-acquainted with Merton and middle range theorising

The paper engages with Laughlin's 1995 and 2004 contributions to the literature on accounting research methodology, seeking to critique and thereby extend his insights. It does so at a time when the discussion of methodological issues appears less important to many empirical accounting researchers than demonstrating a familiarity with the growing range of theoretical perspectives available to pursue such enquiries. The paper initially outlines Laughlin's original and revised frameworks, following which a number of the resultant attributions of specific schools of thought are questioned. The original categorisation exercise is concluded still to offer an insightful basis on which to compare and contrast empirical research approaches. For this reason, the same exercise is extended to locate three further, currently popular ways of seeing: institutional theory, actor network theory and practice theory. The focus then shifts to a more detailed exploration of the relationship that exists between Laughlin's idea of middle range thinking and Merton's characterisation of middle range theory and theorisation. Informed by the resultant insights, the middle range or substantive theory credentials of a range of schools of thought currently widely subscribed in interdisciplinary accounting research are then examined.     

Interdisciplinarity and tax law: The case of legal autopoiesis

This paper critically evaluates interdisciplinary research in tax law. The strategy I follow runs at two levels of abstraction.First, I examine a concrete example of interdisciplinary research in taxation. More precisely, I examine Hikaka and Prebble's (2010) recent paper where, applying Luhmannian autopoietic theory to tax law, they make a series of claims about the productivity of their research strategy as well as the consistency and coherence of Luhmann's interdisciplinary framework. Whereas my analytical and conceptual critique of Hikaka and Prebble's paper stands on its own, it should also be read as revealing the obstacles that lurk behind interdisciplinary research in using such a complex and idiosyncratic theory as Luhmann's autopoietic account of law and society. Accordingly, my analysis shows how autopoietic theory can indeed prove useful for tax and accounting reform as well as to connect tax theory and notions of public interest.Second, I extrapolate from the analysis of Hikaka and Prebble's paper some general problems that current interdisciplinary tax research needs to give further consideration: (i) how to identify productive research questions and uses of interdisciplinary resources; (ii) the dubious added value of interdisciplinary research, given its tendency to adopt complex theoretical apparatuses in a cursory way with little comparison being made to existing research achievements; and (iii) the risk of using interdisciplinary research as an exercise of confirmatory investigation and/or an exercise of mere translation of one discipline's problems into another discipline's language.     

Twenty-five years of income inequality in Britain: the role of wages,household earnings and redistribution

We study earnings and income inequality in Britain over the 25 years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on the middle 90 per cent of the income distribution, within which the gap between top and bottom in 2019–20 was essentially the same, after taxes and transfers, as a quarter-century earlier. This has led to a narrative of ‘stable inequality’, which we argue misses important nuances and key lessons from the UK's experience. In particular, there have been periods in which household earnings inequalities were changing considerably but tax and transfer policy was offsetting its effects on income inequality – in different directions at different times, reflecting sharp changes of policy approach. Means-tested transfers played a crucial role in containing inequality during the ‘inclusive growth’ period of the 1990s and early 2000s, as well as the Great Recession. During the 2010s, the minimum wage emerged as the government's primary policy tool for boosting incomes, but this happened almost simultaneously with cutbacks to means-tested transfers, meaning that household earnings inequalities fell considerably and yet net income inequality rose.     

Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models

We propose two data‐based performance measures for asset pricing models and apply them to models with recursive utility and habits. Excess returns on risky securities are reflected in the pricing kernel's dispersion and riskless bond yields are reflected in its dynamics. We measure dispersion with entropy and dynamics with horizon dependence, the difference between entropy over several periods and one. We compare their magnitudes to estimates derived from asset returns. This exercise reveals tension between a model's ability to generate one‐period entropy, which should be large, and horizon dependence, which should be small.