Uncertain Pension Income and Household Saving

This paper investigates the relationship between household saving and pensions, and estimates both the displacement effect of pensions on private saving and the precautionary saving effect due to uncertainty in pension income. I estimate the savings equation implied by a simple life‐cycle model featuring income uncertainty using survey data for Dutch households, with subjective expectations on pension benefits and uncertainty. Exploiting exogenous variation due to pension fund performance, I find that households save significantly more due to uncertainty in pension income. Not controlling for uncertainty biases the estimated displacement effect of pensions on private savings towards zero.     

Saving and the intra-household distribution of income: an empirical investigation

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between household saving and the distribution of income within the household. Various theoretical reasons why the level of saving might depend on the latter are given. Some of these can be rationalized within the usual “unitary” model of household decision but others recognize explicitly that different members of the household may have different preferences about how much to save.Particular attention is paid to saving for retirement since the facts that wives are, on average, younger than their husbands and women have longer life expectancies means that wives typically anticipate a longer retirement period than their husbands. Thus wives may prefer to save more for retirement than their husbands.The empirical analysis uses a sample of Canadian households from five Family Expenditure Surveys. These surveys include measures of financial saving as well saving in retirement accounts. After accounting for many of the other influences on saving (for example: age, household composition, occupation and education levels but not household income) we find some effects of the intra-household distribution of income on savings rates. The parameter estimates suggest that the household saving rate decreases with the share of the wife in household income.     

经济转轨与城镇化进程中的居民消费行为特征——对1396户城镇家庭的实证分析

基于中国9个省1396户城镇家庭的面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计法对一个包括习惯形成和不确定性的欧拉方程进行估计以考察家庭消费是否跨时演进,研究结果表明,偏好的设定偏误是传统的生命周期——持久收入模型不能很好地诠释中国城镇家庭消费决策的一个原因,在解释消费决策的影响因素时假定偏好的跨时可分性会得出错误的结论,城镇居民消费偏好的跨时不可分性以及由收入和支出不确定性引发的预防性储蓄动机是导致居民消费倾向持续偏低的重要原因。     

Wage arrears uncertainty and precautionary saving in Russia1

Wage arrears are widespread in Russia, and are one of the main causes of uncertainty in the labour market. In this paper, we use the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey over the period 1994–98 to construct a new and improved measure of household income risk, based on the uncertainty due to wage arrears. We then use this measure of uncertainty to test the precautionary saving hypothesis, according to which households save to self‐insure against risk. We find significant evidence of additional saving by those households whose head is more likely to suffer from wage arrears one year hence. This suggests the existence of a strong precautionary saving motive.     

HOW CERTAIN ARE DUTCH HOUSEHOLDS ABOUT FUTURE INCOME? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

The precautionary saving literature shows that income uncertainty increases savings and wealth. To estimate the magnitude of this effect, we need a measure of income uncertainty. This paper empirically analyzes subjective income uncertainty in The Netherlands. Data come from a large Dutch household survey. We measure income uncertainty by asking questions on expected household income in the next twelve months. First, we describe the data and investigate the relationship between the measure of income uncertainty and a number of household characteristics. Controlling for information on expected income changes, we find strong relationships between labor-market characteristics and the subjective income uncertainty as reported by the heads of the households. Second, we compare income uncertainty in The Netherlands with income uncertainty in the U.S. and Italy. It becomes evident that perceived income uncertainty is smaller in The Netherlands than it is in the U.S.     

Is there a retirement consumption puzzle in Japan? Evidence from a household panel dataset spanning several years

Using a unique long-run panel of Japanese households, this paper examines the changes in consumption at retirement (‘the retirement-consumption puzzle’). Our analysis shows that households’ expenditure does decline after the retirement of the household head and that changes in household composition at retirement cannot fully account for this decline. Changes in life-style/preferences after retirement also do not appear to explain a salient feature of the expenditure decline, namely, the strong correlation between the magnitudes of the expenditure decline and the income decline upon retirement. On the other hand, our finding that the expenditure decline is larger for households with smaller savings and/or that experienced a large unexpected income decline is broadly consistent with the standard LC/PIH augmented with unexpected shocks, while it does not rule out the possibility that there is a relatively small subset of households that are myopic and lack sufficient saving discipline.     

Precautionary savings of agents with heterogeneous risk aversion

This article focuses on the estimation of the importance of the precautionary motive in the wealth accumulation decision. We use the micro data set of the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Household Survey (DHS) (CentERdata, Tilburg University), a Dutch household survey containing information on wealth, a subjective measure of income uncertainty and subjective qualitative measures of risk aversion. We find that only a small share of wealth is accumulated for the precautionary motive by the Dutch households. This share of wealth is constant across assets with different degrees of liquidity. The economic downturn of the period 2008 to 2010 seems to affect risk attitudes and precautionary saving. Our findings also suggest that the more risk-averse individuals are those who hold less savings.     

Over-savings and hyperbolic discounting

Hyperbolic discounting models are widely seen as implying that consumers do not save enough, in accordance with the observed low rates of savings of some households. This paper qualifies this view by showing that hyperbolic consumers may ‘oversave’ in the short run. The result extends to uncertainty on future income and does not depend on whether preferences are present-biased or future-biased. A generalized comparative statics analysis of self-control is introduced, and its relationship to the analysis of uncertainty on discount factors is emphasized.     

Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: evidence from Italy

I empirically investigate precautionary savings under liquidity constraints in Italy using a unique indicator of subjective variance of income growth to measure the strength of the precautionary motive for saving, and a variety of survey-based indicators of liquidity constraints. The main contribution of the paper is twofold. First of all, I attempt to differentiate between the standard precautionary saving caused by uncertainty from the one due to liquidity constraints using an endogenous switching regression approach, which allows me to cope with endogeneity issues associated with sample splitting techniques. Second, I move one step further with respect to previous studies on consumption behaviour by taking explicitly expected liquidity constraints into account. I eventually found the precautionary motive for savings to be stronger for those households who face binding constraints, or expect constraints to be binding in the future. Indeed, a complementarity relation exists between precautionary savings and liquidity constraints.     

Do Consumers Learn from Their Own Experiences?

It is natural to think that a household may learn from its own experiences and subsequently increase savings. This paper tests empirically the hypothesis that Japanese households learn from their experiences of large expenditure and increase their targets for precautionary savings after such experiences. The results imply that households raise their targets for precautionary savings by 4–5 percent of annual income in response to such experiences. Moreover, data are consistent with the argument that targets for savings affect actual savings. Assuming this holds, the results in this paper suggest that consumers may increase their actual savings following large expenditure.     

The effect of precautionary saving on consumption in Sweden

Uncertainty concerning future income lowers consumption. This is often called the precautionary demand for savings. In this paper the existence of precautionary savings. In this paper the existence of precautionary saving is investigated using Swedish data for the years 1973–1992. As there are no variables for consumers' uncertainty a proxy is used. Assuming an underlying distribution of attitudinal data, a variance series is derived. Including the proxy in different specifications of the consumption function, indication of precautionary saving can be found. As a result, no uncertainty would raise consumption by 4.9%.     

流动性约束和不确定性状态下的预防性储蓄研究-中国城乡居民的消费特征分析

该文利用我国城乡时间序列数据,对城乡居民的消费特征做了新的探索.我们对引入预期收入增长的对数线性欧拉方程和二阶泰勒近似的欧拉方程进行了估计,结果说明,当期收入仍是决定我国居民消费的主要因素,消费的随机游走假说不成立;城镇居民比农村居民有更强的预防性储蓄动机.1990年代中期以来持续走低的收入增长率直接抑制了消费需求的增长,而仍然偏紧的流动性约束和日益增强的不确定性增大了预防性储蓄动机.     

Aggregate savings when individual income varies

This paper examines aggregate savings in a general equilibrium model where infinitely lived households face volatile (and possibly uncertain) income paths, hold a risk-free asset, and face a borrowing constraint. I first show that the equilibrium capital stock in an economy without uncertainty, but where individual income varies, can be larger than in an economy where each household's income is constant. When individual income is stochastic and uninsurable, the equilibrium capital stock is always larger than when income is constant. This additional capital accumulation has sometimes been interpreted as precautionary savings, but I argue that much of the additional savings are generated by permanent-income motives in combination with strict borrowing constraints.     

Consumption,habit formation,and savings: Evidence from a rural household panel survey

Protecting consumption from the effects of uninsured risk is vital for rural farming households, who tend to be poor and live close to subsistence level. Income uncertainty and habit formation play important roles in the consumption and savings. Variability in weather conditions has a strong linkage with variability in agricultural income in developing countries. This study analyzes consumption and saving decisions of rural farm households in India. Using household panel data for 4 years, we estimated consumption equation accounting for habit formation under income uncertainty. Our findings suggest an evidence for habit formation among rural households. Additionally, we found that both annual and seasonal weather risks significantly influence savings among rural households. Findings from this study also suggest a robust and vibrant farm economy and that the nonfarm economy could contribute to the economic well‐being of rural farming households.     

Do the Rich Save More? Evidence from Canada

This paper provides new evidence on the long‐standing question of whether more affluent households save a larger fraction of their income. The major difficulty in empirically assessing the relationship between incomes and saving rates is to construct a credible proxy for long‐run income—purged of transitory fluctuations and measurement error. The Canadian Family Expenditure Survey provides us with both unusually good data on savings rates and potential predictors with which we can construct reliable long‐run income proxies. Our empirical analysis suggests that the estimated relationship between saving rates and long‐run incomes is sensitive to the predictor used to proxy long‐run income. Nevertheless, our preferred estimates indicate that, except for poorest households (who simply do not save), saving rates do not differ substantially across predicted long‐run income groups.     

中国高储蓄率问题探究——1992-2003年中国资金流量表的分析

本文以国家统计局公布的1992—2003年中国资金流量表为基础,从收入分配和部门储蓄倾向等两个方面对居民、企业和政府等国内三个部门的储蓄率进行了比较分析。我们发现,尽管居民部门的储蓄率最高,但是,自1992年以来,它实际上呈逐步下降趋势,其主要原因在于居民部门获得的劳动报酬、财产收入和再分配收入均有所下降;企业储蓄率呈现缓缓上升趋势,主要原因并不在于企业盈利能力的提高,而在于其主要支出——对居民部门的劳动报酬支出和利息支出长期被稳定在较低的水平上;政府储蓄率在经历了上个世纪的低位徘徊之后,于2000年以后急剧上升,其主要原因在于,通过初次分配和再分配,政府的可支配收入在国民收入的分配中占据了越来越大的份额,同时政府部门的储蓄倾向也在不断提高。本文的政策建议是:为了实现以提高国内消费率为核心的经济发展战略,我国的经济运行应全面转向以改善收入分配结构、提高居民收入为重点的轨道上。为达此目的,加速财政政策向公共财政转型,增加公共支出和对居民的福利支出,在提高劳动生产率的基础上提高企业对劳动者的支付水平,应成为今后我国宏观调控的长期任务。     

Health insurance and precautionary saving: A structural analysis

Starr-McCluer (1996) documented an empirical finding showing that US households covered by health insurance saved more than those without coverage, which is inconsistent with the standard consumption–saving theory. This study conducts a structural analysis and suggests that institutional factors, particularly, a social insurance or safety net system and an employment-based health insurance system, can account for this puzzling finding. A dynamic equilibrium model is built that combines these two institutions with heterogeneous agents making endogenous decisions regarding saving, the labor supply and health insurance when they are young. The model, in which agents save in a precautionary manner, can generate Starr-McCluer?s empirical finding. The result implies that Starr-McCluer?s results are not inconsistent with the standard theory of saving under uncertainty, but it does indicate that the standard saving regression model is unable to reveal the precautionary saving motive. Counterfactual experiments are performed to provide implications for empirical analyses.     

Reverse Capital Deepening and the Numeraire: a note

The orthodox theory of precautionary saving fails to distinguish risk from uncertainty, and thus assumes the existence of a probability distribution governing an individual's future income prospects. The individual is assumed to be motivated to save by the dispersion in the distribution of future income, and researchers have therefore attempted to correlate saving with income variance. However, the empirical evidence tends to refute any such correlation. This paper proposes a concept of futility to describe actions that cannot affect the external environment, and demonstrates that precautionary saving in the orthodox sense is futile inasmuch as saving cannot alter the dispersion of resources around an expected future value. Despite the inadequacy of orthodox theory, the theory is perpetuated because even futile behaviour is consistent with the neoclassical notion of rationality. The retention of an invalid theory of precaution provides a faulty basis for both empirical research and policy analysis; thus, the present paper suggests an alternative approach to precaution based on the work of Knight and Shackle, in which decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty rather than risk.     

居民储蓄-准货币之主源

该文的主旨是探求广义货币中之准货币部分与居民储蓄行为间的关系.该文利用分析时序数据的经济计量模型,建立和估计出城乡居民的人均消费行为关系,用以推算居民的储蓄潜力.再用居民储蓄潜力来解释银行城乡储蓄总额,最后用银行城乡储蓄总额来解释广义货币中的准货币部分.建模试验结果表明,居民人均储蓄行为具有相当的规律性,而且储蓄与准货币供给之间也存在着相当稳定的关系.该文还就利率、利率差、收入及收入不确定性等因素对居民储蓄的影响,做了各种模拟试验.     

Prudence, Intertemporal Substitution, and Savings under Uncertainty

This paper derives the relations between the coefficient of absolute prudence, the equivalent precautionary premium, risk aversion to concentration, and the normality and shift of current consumption under uncertainty, without the time-separable utility assumption. Examples show that Kimball's coefficient of absolute prudence does not fully characterize precautionary saving or saving behavior under uncertainty. It is proved that, whereas a higher rate of intertemporal substitution and a larger coefficient of absolute prudence imply more savings when current consumption is normal, a larger coefficient of intertemporal substitution and a smaller coefficient of absolute prudence imply more savings when current consumption is inferior. Received July 17, 2001; revised version received November 20, 2001