Family and sex-specific U.S. immigration from Europe, 1870–1910: A panel data study of rates and composition

This paper develops and estimates models of family and sex-specific emigration, as well as the sex composition of this emigration, from 12 European source countries to the U.S. for the period 1870–1910. The models are based on the distinction between economic migrants (males, single females, and some married females) and tied or trailing migrants (females) and are estimated with panel data, including data that relate to the occupational/industrial structure of male and female economic activity in source countries. Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable estimates suggest that although both males and females responded to labor-market signals, males were more responsive than females to per capita GDP differences. Moreover, compared to the rest of Europe, Ireland, and Scandinavia were the sources of many young, single male, and female migrants, who responded strongly to gaps in economic opportunities. In fact, much of the European response to such gaps appears to be due to migrants from Ireland and Scandinavia. Females tended to originate in English-speaking countries and countries that were agriculturally oriented. Service and manufacturing jobs in source countries discouraged the migration of females relative to males. Males tended to follow recent migrants more than females, but females responded more to long-term influences as measured by stocks of migrants from their source countries who had previously settled in the U.S. Countries with high birth rates had relatively fewer female emigrants, whereas those with high rates of natural increase 20 years earlier experienced relatively more male emigration. Intact families, other family members (including family-strategy male migrants and trailing female migrants), and single males and females responded strongly to economic incentives, but the singles were most responsive followed by family-strategy males.     

Modeling the age and age composition of late 19th century U.S. immigrants from Europe

Using panel data on 12 European source countries that are followed for 26 years (1873-1898), this paper studies age-specific emigration rates and the age composition of U.S. immigration. Two age groups are the focus of attention, 15-40 and over 40. Emigration-rate models and compositional models that satisfy adding-up conditions are estimated by the Hausman-Taylor Instrumental Variable approach. Younger migrants responded more strongly to job opportunities than to wage differentials, whereas older migrants responded more strongly to wage differentials. Both age groups tended to follow recent past migrants to the U.S. Relatively many younger (and relatively fewer older) migrants came from countries with higher percentages of their work forces in agriculture. Higher source-country birthrates discouraged younger migrants, presumably by raising the cost of family migration.     

The South African brain drain: An empirical assessment

There is no reliable data on the extent of South African skilled emigration and return migration. Statistics South Africa stopped collecting emigration data more than a decade ago. This paper provides data from the turn of the century collected in the countries to which South Africans emigrate. It first provides detailed data on emigration to the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United States – the main destinations for emigrants from South Africa. It then provides estimates for the United Arab Emirates. Finally, it presents data for twenty-five other OECD countries. By contrast with widespread claims that there has been a very large brain gain as South Africans have returned following the global financial crisis, it shows that there was still a net brain drain, albeit at a slower pace. The most recent data suggest that the rate of emigration may be accelerating again.

Abbreviations: OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development     

Resisting the melting pot: The long term impact of maintaining identity for Franco-Americans in New England

Approximately 1 million French-Canadians moved to the United States, mainly between 1865 and 1930, and most settled in neighboring New England. In 1900 almost a fifth of all persons born in French Canada lived in the U.S. These migrants exerted considerable efforts to maintain their language and to replicate their home country institutions, most notably the schooling system, in their new country. For decades, this resistance to assimilation generated considerable attention and concern in the U.S. The concerns are strikingly similar to those often invoked today in discussions of immigration from Hispanic countries, notably Mexico. Mexicans may not be assimilating into mainstream America as European immigrants did. We look at the convergence in the educational attainment of French Canadian immigrants across generations relative to native English-speaking New Englanders and to European Roman Catholic immigrants. The educational attainment of Franco-Americans lagged that of their fellow citizens over a long period of time. By the time of the 2000 Census, they appear to have largely achieved parity. The effects of World War II, especially military service, were very important in speeding up the assimilation process through a variety of related channels: educational attainment, language assimilation, marrying outside the ethnic group, and moving out of New England. Economic assimilation was very gradual because of the persistence of ethnic enclaves.     

COVID-19 and the intentions to migrate from developing countries: Evidence from online search activities in Southeast Asia

COVID-19 has had an enormous effect on labor markets globally. Economic restrictions, notably strict border controls and lockdowns, have led many workers to lose their jobs and forced many migrants to return to their homes or change their migration plans. While adverse effects on labor mobility are expected, variations in the prevalence of COVID-19 and governmental responses to the pandemic across countries are likely to influence workers’ intentions to migrate in different ways. To understand the effects of pandemics on the international labor supply, we explore the impact of COVID-19 and the various economic restriction policies on job search behavior by considering cases from Southeast Asian countries using the difference-in-differences (DID) approach with data from Google Trends Index (GTI). We find that the search volume of queries related to the labor market dramatically increased over time following the outbreak of COVID-19. However, we do not observe any positive impact on the search volume related to emigration, regardless of the infection control measures in the host countries. Our results imply that the job insecurity increases after the imposition of lockdown in the respective countries. On the other hand, the expectation to migrate outside of the country, which requires preparation time and incurs high costs, does not seem to have increased in developing countries.     

The effect of immigration quotas on the average quality of migrating labor and income distribution

In this paper, the authors develop "a simple two-country, single-period model to study the effect of quota restrictions on the composition of migrating labor. [They] have divided the migrant population in two general categories called high skilled and low skilled and have shown that free migration of any category of labor occurs if and only if the country's share of world resources is different from its share of the world labor endowment in that category." Two possible outcomes, given differing labor endowments and income differentials, are considered. The potential effect of illegal immigration is also noted. The authors conclude that their model "is applicable not only to 'brain drain' problems, but also to guest worker programs and/or the mass migration of low skilled workers from poor countries to rich countries."     

Supply chain trade and technological transfer in the ASEAN + 3 region

This paper analyses how economic integration and the international division of labour have evolved among the ASEAN + 3 countries in the last 20 years. The paper proposes an indicator of the level of technological sophistication based on revealed comparative advantages and uses it to investigate the relation between technological advance, factor endowments and supply chain trade. It is shown that supply chain-trade does not facilitate technological transfer. On the contrary: FDI appears to have significant and negative spill-over effects on technological change. Positive spill-overs from FDI materialize only when host countries have sufficiently high levels of education.     

More on the emigration of the peasantry

This paper sets out some circumstances in which emigration of some fraction of the population may be harmful to those who are left behind. In elaborating on the recent work of Keith Griffin, we argue that when emigration takes place, non-emigrant income will rise or fall depending upon the proportion of the original endowment of capital emigrants take with them. When pure labour emigrates, in a one-sector model, non-emigrant income must decline. In a two-sector Heckscher-Ohlin framework, the income of non-emigrants may also decline if one of the goods is non-traded.     

Immigration quotas and immigrant selection

Several factors influenced the composition of migrants in the early 20th century, including World War I, the Literacy Act of 1917, and the implementation of strict immigration quotas. This paper examines whether the United States' first immigration quota, established under the Emergency Immigration Act of 1921, affected migrant selection. The Emergency Immigration Act of 1921 severely capped the number of admittable migrants by nationality. Canadian migrants, or any migrants who resided in Canada for five consecutive years, were unrestricted by the quota and could freely migrate to the U.S. Using transcribed ship records from states bordering Canada (specifically New York, Alaska, and Washington), I compare the skills of restricted migrants to the skills of unrestricted Canadian migrants, before and after establishment of the 1921 quota. Difference-in-differences estimates indicate that the quota resulted in migrants of higher skill.     

Long memory volatility dependency,temporal aggregation and the Korean currency crisis: the role of a high frequency Korean won (KRW)–US dollar ($) exchange rate

Using a new type of 5 min high frequency dataset consisting of real time Korean won (KRW)–US dollar ($) exchange rates, this paper characterizes the volatility process of high frequency returns. The semi-parametric local Whittle estimation is applied to estimate the long memory dependency in the volatility process of the 5 min KRW–$ returns and the temporally aggregated returns data. The estimation results present that the underlying long memory dependency in the volatility process appears to be generally consistent across various temporally aggregated returns and that the exogenous shocks and the multiple breaks associated with the crisis in the market seem to induce greater long memory dependency during the crisis.     

Why they moved — Emigration from the Swedish countryside to the United States, 1881–1910

Swedish emigration rates were among the highest in Europe in the late nineteenth century. The majority of the emigrants originated from the countryside. In the article the determinants of emigration from the Swedish countryside to the United States are explored using panel regression methods on a newly constructed dataset consisting of yearly observations for 20 counties over the period 1881–1910. Amidst sharp fluctuations the emigration rate declined over the long term, which is explained by a rise in the standard of living and improved employment opportunities at home. Persistent regional differences in the emigration rate are explained by regional differences in population density and emigration tradition.     

Brain drain,brain gain,and economic growth in China

We have used Chinese provincial data (1980–2005) to examine the effects of permanent and temporary emigration on human capital formation and economic growth in source regions. First, we find that permanent emigration is conducive to the improvement of both middle and high school enrollment. In contrast, while temporary emigration has a significantly positive effect on middle school enrollment it does not affect high school enrollment. Moreover, the different educational attainments of temporary emigrants have different effects on school enrollment. Specifically, the proportion of temporary emigrants with high school education positively affects middle school enrollment, while the proportion of temporary emigrants with middle school education negatively affects high school enrollment. Finally, we find that both permanent and temporary emigration has a detrimental effect on the economic growth of source regions.     

移民网络促进FDI流入——基于中国经验的分析

近年我国智力外流现象严重,以致引起国内外众多媒体热逐以及学术界的关注,然而,研究中国不同教育层次移民对 FDI 流入影响的经验文献仍较缺乏.本文考察了中国在经合组织各国的移民网络是否促进了来源于该国家的 FDI 流入中国.实证结果显示:当地移民网络为中国 FDI 的流入提供了重要的推动力;其中,高等教育移民在 1%的水...     

Migration from rural areas of poor countries: The impact on rural productivity and income distribution

Evidence is presented elsewhere²⁶ that intra-rural inequality is a major cause of rural-urban migration: that better-off villagers tend to be ‘pulled’, and worse-off villagers ‘pushed’, from the same subset of relatively ‘unequal’ villages. This paper argues that townward emigration, and its after-effects (remittances, return migration), in turn increases interpersonal and inter-household inequality within and between villages. As for rural labour productivity, the neoclassical expectation (that townward migration increases it) rests on special definitions and doubtful assumptions. Fortunately, in most of the poorer developing countries, rural-urban migration is much smaller, less permanent and more likely to set up countervailing economic-demographic pressures restoring the rural population share, than received opinion about ‘the urban crisis’ suggests. Migration does not equilibriate between urban and rural sectors, largely because of externalities and compositional factors; but it does smoothe itself, largely because individuals behave rationally and learn quickly. As so often, the lesson for development studies is not that ‘markets fail’. It is that, under conditions of both poverty and structural inequality, they function — but with generally unacceptable, misery-preserving consequences.     

Farm credit and credit demand elasticities in Shaanxi and Gansu

This paper empirically estimates individual household credit demand elasticities based on 897 farm households surveyed in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces in the People's Republic of China (PRC) in October 2009. We used survey-based experimental techniques to extract individual household credit demand functions from which we estimated point demand elasticities. From a theoretical point of view, we proposed that as interest rates fell the demand for credit increased in elasticity, and this appears to hold in our data. We find a range of elasticities with mean point estimates of about ? 0.6. We find that nearly 20% of farm households have nearly perfectly inelastic demands for credit but we also find that nearly 20% have elasticities above ? 0.75 including some 15% that have elasticities greater than ? 1.0. Previous studies that have argued against credit policies because of the low inelasticity of demand do not generally hold. There is much heterogeneity in credit demand and we would argue that a full spectrum of targeted credit policies can be used to address differences across farms.     

Birds of passage: Return migration,self-selection and immigration quotas

A key feature of migration in the late 19th and early 20th century is that many migrants returned to Europe after a few years in the United States. A common view is that most temporary migrants planned, upon entry, to eventually return home, yet there is little direct evidence to support this claim. I collect the first dataset on migrants' intentions to stay or return home from Ellis Island arrival records between 1917 and 1924. I find that fewer migrants planned to return home than actually did; many migrants, especially from Eastern and Southern Europe, left the United States unexpectedly. The high rate of unplanned returns implies that the first few years after arrival were more difficult than expected. However, this high rate of unexpected returns lowered after the 1920s migration quotas, suggesting improved outcomes for those lucky enough to enter.     

Return migration and Hukou registration constraints in Chinese cities

This paper documents the patterns of return migration and labor mobility constraints in China using two unique data: the 2017 China Household Finance Survey and a newly developed urban Hukou registration index. The size of return migrants is larger than that of migrants without local Hukou registration. Majority of return migrants move from more developed region back to their less developed home town where they have Hukou registration. Empirical results show that Hukou registration barrier, typically higher in more developed cities, leads to a higher probability of returning among low-skilled migrant workers, and such an effect only exits among migrants moving across provinces and migrants with rural Hukou.     

Using census and survey data to measure undocumented immigration and emigration for the United States

The estimation of emigration and undocumented immigration rates for the United States is discussed. "A residual methodology compares census or survey data on the resident foreign-born population with an independently derived estimate of the legally resident foreign-born population. The difference is the estimated undocumented population which may be compared for alternative dates to derive measures of change. In 1988, this difference was 1.9 million, similar to the 1980 estimate of 2.1 million.... Measurement of emigration...has recently relied on resident reports of immediate relatives who have emigrated. Controlling for multiple reporting of the same emigrants, the direct estimate of the emigrant population from the United States is about 1.2 million. Allowing for undercoverage of the emigrant population due to nonresident relatives, there could be 2.0 million or more emigrants."     

The Impacts of Economic Freedom and Institutional Quality on Migration from African Countries

The previous empirical literature suggests that socio-economic conditions and demographic pressures are triggering factors of migration from Africa. We propose that economic freedom and institutional quality indicators of African countries are also important determinants of out-migration from Africa. Hence, we investigate the effect of economic freedom and institutional quality on migration flow from 44 African countries to major migration destination countries. Aggregate indicators are derived for the quality of institutions and economic freedom using principal component analysis. Controlling for source and destination countries' income levels, population size, cultural, historical and physical distance, our findings provide evidence that migration flow from Africa is significantly determined by the institutional quality and economic freedom indicators in African countries. Our results are strongly robust to different econometric techniques used to control for sample selection bias, zero-valued observations and endogeneity concern. Hence, improving institutional quality and maintaining economic freedom in African countries matters significantly to control out-migration from Africa.     

High frequency perspective on jump process,long memory property and temporal aggregation: Case of $-AUD exchange rates

The high frequency 30 min $-AUD exchange rate is investigated using a parametric FIGARCH model. The FIGARCH model is found to be the preferred specification for the 30 min returns and temporally aggregated returns, with similar values of the long memory parameter across various aggregated returns. This paper employs the Bernoulli jump process and the Poisson jump process to represent conditional mean jumps in the high frequency returns and the aggregated returns. The estimation results present that the jumps are quite significant in the conditional mean process and that the long memory parameters are remarkably reduced over the aggregated returns after the jumps are accounted for.