Have cities a future?

Prospects for the older declining industrial cities may take some reassurances from the example of the US Sunbelt, FR Germany and many third world cities. The survival of the city would seem to rely on not only a shift to information-processing services but also increasing the ease with which activities, people and ideas are able to move around the urban area. However in the present state of flux and seemingly contradictory indications, prophecy should be approached cautiously.     

Megapatterns of global settlement: Typology and drivers in a warming world

Changes in settlement structures of the world can be described as megapatterns that represent dynamic spatial trends. This paper defines and describes three types of such megapatterns that will be of major influence in shaping global settlement and activity structures in the future, given a warming climate: (1) megapatterns driven by global warming; (2) megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources, and (3) megapatterns driven by important spatial positions. The megapatterns are ordered into a typology and their individual and collective impacts are described.The major findings of this paper are: because of global warming many of the central areas of the globe will experience heat, water and pollution problems that will induce people and activities to be moved to cooler, wetter areas. As high, cool terrains, as well as the virgin Sub-Polar Regions—mostly located in Siberia, Northern Canada, Northern Scandinavia, Greenland, Alaska, Southern Argentina, and Southern Chile—start to get warmer, it will become possible to relocate water-craving industries, like agriculture and resource extraction. This will not necessarily lead to a large population shift, since relatively few workers are needed for most such operations.     

Consideration of Future Consequences among managers in Iran and Malaysia

Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) is an individual differences variable that reflects how individuals view the future. CFC takes into account the intrapersonal struggle between an individual's present behaviour and the immediate and future outcomes. The main aim of this study is to examine how managers consider the consequences of their actions in two developing countries, i.e. Malaysia and Iran. Empirical data were collected via a survey questionnaire distributed to managers working in private companies in both countries. The datasets illustrates that Malaysians have a higher CFC compared to Iranians. In addition, it is also shown that Malaysians tend to view consequences from three perspectives, i.e. immediate, intermediate, and future consequences, while the Iranians look at immediate and future consequences.     

新时代背景下会计职业的前途探究

由高速发展的计算机、通信、信息、网络等科学技术衍生的云计算、物联网、5G、人工智能,已经实实在在地融入到我们的生活中,这必将对会计职业的前途产生影响,引发了会计人员对自身职业前途的担忧。文章结合人工智能的广泛运用这一新时代科技背景,从会计角色内外两个维度进行分析研究,得出结论:会计人员向企业一线业务领域及二线管理职能领域渗透一定成为必然,会计人员只要定位好自己的工作努力方向,有针对性的学习和改进,有效培养和提升自身的能力,就一定会有所作为,而会计职业不仅不会消失,反而会在企业组织中发挥更大的作用。     

本次经济危机主要大宗商品期货价格波动性研究

本文在分析本次次债危机以来主要大宗商品价格变动情况的基础上,建立了ARMA和E-GARCH模型及ARMA和TARCH模型来描述本轮经济周期中石油、铜、铝、黄金、大豆和玉米等大宗商品的期货价格收益序列的波动性特征。自相关分析发现不同商品期货市场的有效性略有差异,原油和铜市场更为有效;ARMA和非对称GARCH模型表明,主要商品收益波动均具有积聚效应,原油和铝收益波动具有杠杆效应,坏消息对原油收益波动的冲击大于好消息,好消息对铝收益波动的冲击大于坏消息。     

Factors contributing to business actions in response to climate change in Korea

Climate change is a growing problem and has been highlighted as a global issue. Empirical evidence increasingly indicates its obvious potential risks to humans and society. As members of this society, business organizations face greatly diverse climate change-related risks that they must recognize and respond to. However, gaps exist between scientific evidence and the actions of business organizations. Few empirical studies have examined the business organizations’ actions taken in response to climate change in Korea. This paper addresses this critical gap in the climate change literature by examining business organizations’ behaviors and identifying the factors influencing their actions. We employ statistical models to compare corporate climate change actions, and we explain their variations using survey data. The results indicate that despite increasing concerns about climate change, businesses have implemented very limited precautionary mitigation and adaptation actions. In addition, the concerns of the businesses about future climate change impact, organizational capacity (leadership, staff capacity, existence of a relevant division or department), and business size are significant factors with respect to the implementation of climate change actions.     

Anticipatory policymaking in global venues: Policy change,adaptation, and the UNFCCC

The subfield of public policy depicts policymaking as reactive process wherein public officials respond to existing social problems. While this depiction holds true in many cases, it fails to account for instances where policy change occurs in anticipation of emerging threats or hazards. “Anticipatory problems” are projected to occur in the future, and it is the prospect of their occurring that generates policy debate. This paper examines the policymaking pattern engendered by anticipatory policy problems, highlighting the ways in which they challenge and support existing assumptions about the process of policy change. To illustrate this distinctive dynamic, this paper will present a case study examining the evolving debate over climate change adaptation policy within United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).     

Detecting local environmental change: the role of experience in shaping risk judgments about global warming

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding, heat waves, and wildfires). As a result, it is often reasoned that as more individuals experience unusual weather patterns that are consistent with changing climate conditions, the more their concern about global warming will increase, and the more motivated they will become to respond and address the problem effectively. Social science research evaluating the relationships between personal experiences with and risk perceptions of climate change, however, show mixed results. Here, we analyze a representative statewide survey of Floridians and compare their risk perceptions of five-year trends in climate change with local weather station data from the five years preceding the survey. The results show that Floridians are unable to detect five-year increases in temperature, but some can detect changes in precipitation. Despite an inability to detect the correct direction of change, respondents were significantly more likely than not to correctly identify the season in which most change occurred. Nevertheless, compared to local experience, risk perceptions of climate change were more strongly predicted by subjective experiences of environmental change, personal beliefs about climate change, and political ideology. Results from the study suggest that long-term changes in climate patterns and extreme weather events need to be interpreted by weather and climate experts within the context of climate change; individuals cannot be expected to detect or comprehend such complex linkages directly.     

Future changes in activity structures of the globe under a receding Arctic ice scenario

Geospatial maps are here used for interpreting of what a scenario with a warming Arctic with less ice will mean for activity structures of the globe in the future. This will enable certain locations in the High North to become important activity areas. Of most consequence are the fundamental activity structures of Earth, like global shipping, world trade and oil extraction. These will be impacted as the Arctic sea routes have opened, opening up shorter shipping distances between the N-Pacific and N-Atlantic Oceans. The reduction of ice in the Arctic Ocean will also lead to ever improved access to the resources of Arctic ocean-floor and the Arctic Region—perhaps most importantly to oil and gas.The conclusions also indicate that some central regions of the globe may loose relatively, for instance in terms of global shipping. Oil-rich central areas—like the Persian Gulf area—will face losses in activity as their oil starts to dwindle. Arctic oil is now about 10% of the world production. The rate of Arctic ice reduction will influence the rate of growth in Arctic resource extraction and it will likely occur later this century. The activity and importance of the Arctic will thus grow relatively.     

Sustainable development in cities: collaborating to improve urban climate resilience and develop the business case for adaptation

Fragmented governance contexts make it difficult for public bodies to direct and control climate adaptation initiatives. This paper highlights how Newcastle City Council collaborated with local partners to create a shared understanding of how a major storm could affect public services across North East England. This helped the authority to develop a business case to invest in infrastructure that will help to protect future generations from severe weather events.     

Communities in a world of open systems

In the past, communities tended to be closed systems with relatively clear boundaries, stable memberships, and few linkages to other communities. We are now entering into an ‘age of open systems.' Mobility creates new communities and kinds of communities. The impacts of mobility are far less than those of information and communications technology. Cyberspace has become a new kind of social terrain, crowded with ‘virtual communities.' Television and radio create communities of people thinking and talking about the same things. Both mobility and the growth of communications networks reduce the predominance of geography as a force in shaping community. Many communities are much more fluid, and some are placeless. There are many different kinds of social groups and networks that people describe with the word ‘community.' Most people are multi-community individuals, with many memberships, and many kinds of memberships. Although the world's major religions still have some historic identification with specific regions, those geographic attachments are no longer as clear as they once were, and these religions are tending to become open systems. Some people prefer relatively closed social systems, while others flourish in freer environments. Choice is one of the most powerful forces in the lives of people being exposed to the forces of globalization. Community will continue to be a profound human need but will be redefined, perhaps many times over.     

Automobile Usage in a Future Information Society

The Information society provides a challenge for the future of the automobile. This article, based on a two-year Swedish study as part of the MIT Future of the Automobile Programme, used four scenarios against which to predict the future of the car in Sweden. It concludes that, overall, information technologies will not substitute for travel, only for the information carried on paper; rather, future moves towards increasingly dispersed living will keep car usage high.     

Designing a foresight exercise for the future of rural communities in Romania

The paper aims to offer a good guideline for anyone who intends to do a futures or a foresight exercise for rural communities. The case presented is the one of the future of rural communities in Romania. The article begins with a brief presentation of the prevailing rural situation in Romania followed by a dialogue regarding suggestions for the possible objectives of a foresight exercise and the methods used (e.g. visioning, alternative futures, scenarios).     

The European pulp and paper industry in transition to a bio-economy: A Delphi study

The current challenge facing the European pulp and paper industry is how to materialize the transformation to a bio-economy, as well as to realize the necessary new green innovations. The risks, costs and constraints of doing business will increase, thereby further intensifying competition, but at the same time new business opportunities will open up. This study adopts a three-round dissensus-based Delphi approach in order to explore our key research question of how the pulp and paper industry may change strategically, and what is the potential for value creation in the year 2030. According to our expert panel, the main drivers of competitiveness in 2030 will include energy and material efficiency, sustainability, as well as new innovations in products to serve customer needs better. According to the projected 2030 scenario, the pulp and paper industry will produce more diversified products, focus on higher value-added, and aim at consumer segments with higher environmental awareness. On average, 40 percent of the turnover will according to the panel come from genuinely new products. Strategic cross-sectorial partnerships will have a key role in making this big leap, while simultaneously acknowledging the changing needs of sustainability-conscious customers and other stakeholders.     

Taxation and Migration in a Federal System

This paper discusses how taxation may affect migration, economic efficiency and income distribution. The institutional framework is a federal system, in which local authorities are responsible for the supply of public services and the financing of these services, and where the central authorities are in charge of income redistribution. The main conclusion is that a moderate policy of income redistribution is associated with greater centralization of the work force and greater economic inefficiency than is the case with both radical and more limited policies of redistribution.     

The crucial epoch: Essential knowledge for living in a world in transformation

Mankind is entering the most crucial epoch in its history. The global economic and socio-technical industrial system in place since World War II is coming to a close. What takes its place is up to mankind to decide. Drawing on current work in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, evolutionary biology, cybernetics and systems science theory, the author identifies crucial bifurcation epochs in human history where new biological species and human societies have evolved from the old, replacing themselves with better adapted successors. Although scientists speak of bifurcation as essentially random, human societies are able to exercise foresight and take purposeful action. At this critical juncture, as post-industrial civilization comes to an end, this is the choice that humanity is morally bound to exercise.     

Capital taxation and accumulation in a growing world economy with deficit finance

Prior analyses of the incidence of capital taxation have assumed that the government budget is balanced and changes in capital taxes affect either other taxes, transfers, or government expenditures. The general conclusion is that an increase in the capital tax rate will increase the gross-of-tax interest rate and decrease capital accumulation. This article examines the steady-state effects of capital taxation on the gross-of-tax interest rate and capital accumulation within a two-country model of overlapping generations, which allows capital taxation to directly affect government budget deficits. It is shown that, under the residence tax system, if the after-tax-interest rate is greater than the growth rate, an increase in the capital tax rate willdecrease the gross interest rate andincrease the capital-labor ratio. This result holds even under the territorial tax system, with some additional assumptions.     

Measuring performance in a dynamic world: Conditional mean–variance fundamentals

We develop conditional alpha performance measures that are consistent with conditional mean–variance analysis and the magnitude and sign of the implied true conditional time-varying alphas. The sequence of conditional alphas and betas is estimable from surprisingly simple unconditional regressions. Other common performance measures are derivable from the conditional investment opportunity set based on its conditional asset return moments. Our bootstrap analysis of Morningstar mutual fund returns data demonstrates that the differences between existing conditional alpha measures and our proposed alpha are substantive for typical parameterizations.     

Bayesian networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context

Abstract

Probabilistic thinking can often be unintuitive. This is the case even for simple problems, let alone the more complex ones arising in climate modelling, where disparate information sources need to be combined. The physical models, the natural variability of systems, the measurement errors and their dependence upon the observational period length should be modelled together in order to understand the intricacies of the underlying processes. We use Bayesian networks (BNs) to connect all the above-mentioned pieces in a climate trend uncertainty quantification framework. Inference in such models allows us to observe some seemingly nonsensical outcomes. We argue that they must be pondered rather than discarded until we understand how they arise. We would like to stress that the main focus of this paper is the use of BNs in complex probabilistic settings rather than the application itself.     

Diversifying and de-growing the circular economy: Radical social transformation in a resource-scarce world

Programmes and policies for a Circular Economy (CE) are fast becoming key to regional and international plans for creating sustainable futures. Framed as a technologically driven and economically profitable vision of continued growth in a resource-scarce world, the CE has of late been taken up by the European Commission and global business leaders alike. However, within CE debates and documentation, little is said about the social and political implications of such transformative agendas. Whilst CE proponents claim their agenda is ‘radical’, this paper outlines its inability to address many deeply embedded challenges around issues of consumption and the consumer, echoing as it does the problematic (and arguably failed) agendas of sustainable consumption/lifestyles. Using the Sharing Economy as an example, we argue here that the ontological and sociological assumptions of the CE must be open to more ‘radical’ critique and reconsideration if this agenda is to deliver the profound transformations that its advocates claim are within our collective reach.