Exchange rate pass-through in the Asian countries: does inflation volatility matter?

This paper presents a nonlinear relationship between exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and inflation volatility. Through the lens of a threshold framework, we uncover a clear evidence of near to one ERPT to consumer prices once inflation volatility crosses a threshold level of 4.17. Clearly, there are significant differences in the degree of ERPT between the high and low inflation volatility in the inflation targeting (IT) and non-IT Asian countries.     

Exchange rate pass-through into German import prices – a disaggregated perspective

This study analyses the exchange rate pass-through into German import prices based on disaggregated data taken on a monthly basis between 1995 and 2012. Our main contribution is twofold: firstly, we employ various time-series techniques to analyse data for different product categories, and also cointegration techniques to carefully distinguish between short-run and long-run pass-through coefficients. Secondly, in a panel data approach we estimate time-varying pass-through coefficients and explain their development with regard to various macroeconomic factors. Our results show that long-run pass-through is only partly observable and incomplete, whereas short-run pass-through shows a more unique character, although heterogeneity across product groups does exist. We are also able to identify several macroeconomic factors that determine changes in the degree of pass-through, which is especially relevant for policymakers.     

Does trade stimulate product quality upgrading?

This paper investigates whether increased import competition leads firms to engage in incremental innovation reflected in product quality upgrading using Chilean manufacturing firm‐product data and measuring product quality with unit values (prices). We identify causal effects of import competition using an effective trade barrier measure – transport costs – as instruments for import penetration ratios across industries. Transport costs have a negative and significant effect on product quality. The evidence suggests that estimated unit value increases capture product quality upgrading, imports’ competition effects drive quality upgrading, and benefits depend on firms’ industrial specialization. Easier access to intermediate inputs also fosters quality upgrading.     

Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?

We estimate monetary policy rules for six Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) during the period when they prepared for membership to the EU and monetary union. By taking changes in the policy settings explicitly into account and by splitting up the exchange rate impact into two different components we significantly improve estimation results for monetary policy rules in CEEC. We uncover that the focus of the interest rate setting behaviour in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland explicitly switched from defending the peg to targeting inflation. For Slovakia, however, there still seemed to be on ongoing focus on the exchange rate. Finally, Slovenia and, after a policy switch, Romania exhibit a solid relation with inflation as well.     

Immigration and economic freedom of the US states: Does the institutional quality of immigrants' origin countries matter?

When people immigrate to the United States from countries with less economic freedom, they do not dampen economic freedom in their destination states. We use the Economic Freedom of North America report to rate the economic freedom of US states, and we group immigrants by how far below the United States their origin countries score in the Economic Freedom of the World report. Our major findings hold true even when states receive immigrants from countries with far less economic freedom. Most relationships between immigration and the US states' economic freedom scores are neither statistically nor economically significant.     

Trade and unions: Does size matter?

Our empirical analysis builds upon the hypothesis that unions are detrimental to a firm's efficiency. Using a rich survey of German manufacturers, we investigate firm-level determinants on the probability of collective wage bargaining with particular focus on the impact of a firm's engagement in foreign markets. An interesting and very robust finding is that exporters are less likely to engage in union wage bargaining. This finding is in line with a pessimistic perception of unions. The negative effect of collective bargaining can be offset by efficiency gains for larger exporters, who can benefit from operation cost saving effects. Size does matter as larger firms export and may find bargaining with a single entity representing the workforce more convenient than bargaining with each worker individually. We are using firm level information on IT investment as instrument for the export dummy and successfully test for the validity of this instrument.     

Firm age and the probability of product innovation. Do CEO tenure and product tenure matter?

This paper examines the influence that the age of a firm has on the probability of product innovation by taking into account two factors: the role of the CEO’s tenure and the lifecycle of the last product introduced. In a sample of Italian manufacturing firms (n = 2163), analysis reveals that the new entrants’ high innovative activity is mainly driven by the new CEO’s innovation propensity, which is strictly dependent on his tenure. Likewise, the lower innovation activity observed in mature firms is mostly explained by the dynamics of the product’s lifecycle and the CEO’s tenure. More generally, the existence of a negative relationship between innovation and firm age is questioned, as controlling for time-related variables that overlap during the company’s lifecycle —product age and CEO’s tenure — turns the relationship positive. Finally, the innovative behavior of incumbent companies turns out to be dependent on the renewal abilities of newly appointed external CEOs, whereas CEOs from within the family play a minor role.     

Exchange rate undervaluation and manufactured exports: A deliberate strategy?

Recent literature suggests that a proactive exchange rate policy in accordance with price incentives (i.e. undervaluation) can foster manufactured exports and growth. This paper is built on these recent developments and investigates, using a sample of 52 developing countries, whether such a proactive exchange rate policy is adopted. The results show that during the period 1991–2005 a number of countries has used undervaluation to foster the price competitiveness of manufactured exports.     

Does the star power matter?

This study investigates the role of superstars in the Korean movie industry. We apply a two-step approach: the first step is to test the significance of the star power during 1988–1999 in Korea; the second step is to estimate the magnitude of star power. The appearance of a star actor increases the probability of a hit or success by 15–19% and star power is higher than a director power. A domestic award is associated with positive performance. We find that the top 15 players among 68 actors and actresses significantly impacts on the success of movies.     

Public spending and outcomes: Does governance matter?

This paper studies the links between public spending, governance, and outcomes. We examine the role of governance–measured by the level of corruption and the quality of bureaucracy–in determining the efficacy of public spending in improving human development outcomes. Our analysis contributes to our understanding of the relationship between public spending, governance and outcomes, and helps explain the surprising result that public spending often does not yield the expected improvement in outcomes. We show empirically that the differences in the efficacy of public spending can be largely explained by the quality of governance. Public health spending lowers child mortality rates more in countries with good governance. Similarly, public spending on primary education becomes more effective in increasing primary education attainment in countries with good governance. More generally, public spending has virtually no impact on health and education outcomes in poorly governed countries. These findings have important implications for enhancing the development effectiveness of public spending. The lessons are particularly relevant for developing countries, where public spending on education and health is relatively low, and the state of governance is often poor.     

On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?

This paper investigates the growth effects of inflation on a wide sample of countries, including both industrialized and emerging economies. Relying upon the estimation of smooth transition and dynamic GMM models for panel data, our findings offer strong evidence that inflation non-linearly impacts economic growth. More specifically, there exists a threshold beyond which inflation exerts a negative effect on growth, and below which it is growth enhancing for advanced countries.     

Does partner type matter in R&D collaboration for product innovation?

Most firms tend to utilise various types of R&D collaboration partners simultaneously and partnerships between different types of partners show different properties. Thus, the effect of R&D collaboration may vary depending on partner types. This study considers four partner types: competitors, customers, suppliers and universities. It empirically examines the effect of R&D collaboration with each type of partner on product innovation, employing the Korean Innovation Survey data. Results show that R&D collaborations with customers and universities have a positive effect on product innovation, whereas R&D collaborations with suppliers and competitors have an inverted-U shape relationship with product innovation. This result can provide an explanation to the chaotic results of previous research and assist managers in selecting appropriate R&D partner.     

Does the exchange rate pass-through into prices change when inflation targeting is adopted? The Peruvian case study between 1994 and 2007

This paper analyzes whether the exchange rate pass-through into prices changed when the inflation targeting scheme was adopted in Peru. First, a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is simulated, which shows that adopting this scheme induces an increase in exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, applying the theory of the currency denomination of international trade, it is demonstrated that increased exchange rate volatility reduces the share of firms that set their prices in foreign currency. Given that the pass-though has a direct relationship with this share, it is shown that adopting inflation targeting generates a pass-through contraction. Second, we empirically test whether the Peruvian Central Bank’s decision to adopt inflation targeting in January 2002 actually had an effect on the pass-through estimating a time-varying vector autoregressive model which allows for an asymmetrical estimation of the pass-through. It provides parameters for both the pre and post inflation targeting regimes based on the assumption that the transition from one regime to the other is smooth. An analysis of the generalized impulse response functions reveals that the decision to adopt inflation targeting significantly decreased the exchange rate pass-throughs into import, producer, and consumer prices. The results are consistent with economic theory and are robust to the specification of parameters of the model.     

Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade flows in the context of disaggregating industry data of bilateral trade between Korea and Japan. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used. Results show that Korea's exports and imports are relatively sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate in the short-run, but less responsive in the long-run. It is also found that income in the two countries has significant impacts on the bilateral trade flows in both the short- and long-run. Finally, exchange rate uncertainty and Japanese FDI to Korea are found to have little impacts on Korea's trade with Japan in the short- and long-run.     

World economic convergence: Does the estimation methodology matter?

An extant empirical literature produces evidence on economic convergence using methods that assume an underlying deterministic trend. Competing approaches that assume a stochastic trend, however, produce only limited evidence of economic convergence. In this paper we address this puzzling feature of the literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of economic convergence using three methodologies that cover all possible underlying assumptions: deterministic, stochastic, and combination trends. We also develop a method for an overall Stochastic Convergence Rate Index, that combines the outcomes of alternative stochastic tests and provides a single measure of the intensity of stochastic convergence. We consider 135 economies over the period 1980–2017. We find that economic convergence occurs at a global level through the formation of convergence clubs, and economic convergence emerges as a deterministic rather than a stochastic process. Tests that ignore deterministic trends tend to understate the evidence for convergence.     

Revisiting the democracy-private investment nexus: Does inequality matter?

Contrary to the predictions of a large theoretical literature, recent cross-country evidence suggests autocracies can generate statistically indistinguishable levels of private investment compared to democracies. We argue that the previous exclusion of inequality explains part of this puzzle. We model current investment as a function of investors’ beliefs about future tax rates, which are conditioned by the constraints on the Executive in setting tax rates and expropriating tax revenues. In democracies, where tax rates reflect the preferences of the median voter, investment declines with rising inequality. In autocracies, investor beliefs about future tax rates reflect the relative power of Elites compared to the Executive. As inequality rises, the increased resources available to Elites constrains the Executive’s ability to expropriate more tax revenues. The heterogeneous determinants of investor beliefs can explain the observed pattern of investment across regime types. We first test our predictions at the macro-level with cross-country data. We then test the behavioral underpinnings of our model with a novel laboratory experiment showing how inequality affects individual-level investment behavior dependent upon regime type. Results from both types of analyses show that when inequality is taken into account autocracies can generate similar levels of investment to democracies.     

Exchange rate uncertainty and firm-level investment: Finding the Hartman–Abel effect

Motivated by Lee and Shin (2000, AER), we study the interplay of the share of variable input, investment irreversibility, and market power in shaping the relationship between investment and uncertainty. Employing a large panel of Chinese manufacturing firms, combined with industry-specific exchange rates for the period 1998–2006, our system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation finds that uncertainty significantly encourages (discourages) investment for firms with high (low) labor share or low (high) investment irreversibility, and the impact is magnified for firms with low market power. Our paper demonstrates the importance of the share of variable input, investment irreversibility, and market power in the Hartman–Abel paradoxical effect that predicts a positive relationship between uncertainty and investment in the international economics context.     

Environmental regulation and MNEs location: Does CSR matter?

We investigate whether firms with relatively low environmental standards are more often located in countries that are poor, corrupt or have weak environmental regulations. We find new empirical evidence in favor of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis, which states that MNEs are transferring their dirty operations to countries with weak environmental regulation. Our findings suggest that these are not necessarily the poorest or most corrupt countries. We establish that MNEs with strong social responsibility avoid locating their operations in countries with weak environmental regulation.     

Fiscal discipline and exchange rates: Does politics matter?

We look at the effect of exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, taking into account the effect of underlying political conditions. We present a model where strong politics (defined as policymakers facing longer political horizon and higher cohesion) are associated with better fiscal performance, but fixed exchange rates may revert this result and lead to less fiscal discipline. We confirm these hypotheses through regression analysis performed on a panel sample covering 79 countries from 1975 to 2012. Our empirical results also show that the positive effect of strong politics on fiscal discipline is not enough to counter the negative impact of being at/moving to fixed exchange rates. Our results are robust to a number of sensitivity checks, including the use of different estimators, alternative proxies for fiscal discipline and sub-sample analysis.     

Terrorism and spatial disparities: Does interregional inequality matter?

This article examines the relationship between interregional inequality and the incidence of domestic terrorism in a panel of 48 countries over the period 1990–2010. The results show that a high level of interregional inequality increases the number of domestic terror events in the sample countries. This finding is robust to the inclusion of additional explanatory variables that may affect both interregional inequality and domestic terrorism. Furthermore, the observed link between interregional inequality and terrorist activity does not depend on the choice of the specific measure used to quantify the degree of dispersion in the regional distribution of GDP per capita within the sample countries.