Toward a new macrohistory: An extension to Sardar's ‘postnormal times’

How should futurists evaluate Sardar's announcement of ‘postnormal’ times? In contrast to existing images, what light does the postnormal metaphor shed on our global age? This paper views Sardar's postnormal times as embryonic, and extends it using ecosystems theory. To develop Sardar's concept as a macrohistory, Holling's adaptive cycle and panarchical systems are proposed as mechanisms of change that create postnormal times.     

The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times

The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times is a new method for foresight and futures researchers and practitioners. Designed and developed to explore the complexity, chaos, and contradictions of postnormal times and what might come next, the three tomorrows method uses a multi-layered approach to situate and analyze trends, emerging issues, and imaginings of the future(s), including complex, horizonspecific forecasts. In this paper, we provide a theoretical overview of the key concepts underlying our approach, including the three forms of ignorance and uncertainty as well as the Menagerie of postnormal potentialities, which we developed as a mechanism for challenging deeply held convictions, illuminating entrenched contradictions, and enlivening novel considerations.     

A Practical Framework for the Analysis of Social Security Reform

‘When I use a word’, Humpty Dumpty said in a rather scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it lo mean — neither more nor less’. (Through the Looking Glass, Ch. 6)     

Survey Under‐Coverage of Top Incomes and Estimation of Inequality: What is the Role of the UK's SPI Adjustment?

Survey under‐coverage of top incomes leads to bias in survey‐based estimates of overall income inequality. Using income tax record data in combination with survey data is a potential approach to address the problem; we consider here the UK's pioneering ‘SPI adjustment’ method that implements this idea. Since 1992, the principal income distribution series (reported annually in Households Below Average Income) has been based on household survey data in which the incomes of a small number of ‘very rich’ individuals are adjusted using information from ‘very rich’ individuals in personal income tax return data. We explain what the procedure involves, reveal the extent to which it addresses survey under‐coverage of top incomes and show how it affects estimates of overall income inequality. More generally, we assess whether the SPI adjustment is fit for purpose and consider whether variants of it could be employed by other countries.     

What is a Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting?

ABSTRACT

Despite more than forty years of exploration into constructing a conceptual framework (CF) for financial reporting the question ‘What is a CF?’ has not been adequately answered. The result is that those who construct CFs are not guided by a clear concept of a CF and communication about CFs is undermined by differences in understanding what it is. There has been a failure to undertake conceptual enquiry into the nature of a CF or into the expressions used in describing it. This paper addresses this failure by undertaking such a conceptual enquiry. Existing explanations of CFs are examined and found to be inadequate. What is wanted from a CF is identified and explained and this is used to prescribe what should be understood by the expression ‘conceptual framework’. A new characterisation of CFs is given that should assist any future construction of new CFs. Problems that may be faced by those who seek to construct a CF are identified.     

Controllers’ use of informational tactics

Controllers typically have a ‘dual accountability’ towards the finance function and operational management, respectively. This dual accountability at times confronts them with conflicting expectations. In this paper, we suggest that ‘informational tactics’ constitute an important resource which controllers rely on so as to handle these expectations and to successfully present themselves vis-à-vis their different internal stakeholders. Drawing upon interview data, we demonstrate that informational tactics relate to different dimensions of information control (i.e. ‘when’, ‘how’ and ‘what’ information is to be exchanged) and that they depend on the respective room for manoeuvre a controller has in a given situation. Overall, our analysis adds a more nuanced picture to the literature on controllers’ handling of information and demonstrates the fundamental role of informational tactics for their everyday work.     

What is a fair amount of executive compensation? Outrage potential of two key stakeholder groups

The public discussion of executive compensation often centres on ‘fair’ and ‘unfair’ amounts and the public outrage over compensation that is deemed too high. The academic literature states that such outrage can lead to outrage costs, pressuring firms to adjust compensation levels. However, it is unclear what a ‘fair’ compensation is for various stakeholders and how their fairness concerns relate to outrage constraints. Based on surveys among two key stakeholder groups (representative eligible voters and investment professionals), we provide evidence that fairness is an important criterion for both groups but that opinions on how large a fair compensation amount should be are widely dispersed. Moreover, personality traits systematically influence fairness opinions through self‐serving interpretations of distributive justice and personal risk attitudes, indicating that a ‘fair’ amount of executive compensation may strongly depend on the involved stakeholders. Investigating thresholds for outrage, i.e., amounts above which compensation is judged ‘unfairly’ high, we show that even though investment professionals care for fairness as well, ‘capital market outrage’ might not equate to ‘public outrage’. Our paper contributes to the literature on outrage constraints by linking individual fairness concerns to outrage potential and has implications for transparency of executive compensation and research on shareholder activism.     

The implication of extreme events on policy responses

This paper considers a situation where a real risk exists that requires precautions, but the public mostly experiences the risk through infrequently occurring extreme events; this type of risk includes risk from climate change, international terrorism, natural calamities or financial crises. The analysis shows that if a risk-mitigating policy is based on the perceived riskiness of that risk, it will call for disproportionate responses (compared to what the ‘real’ risk suggests) by either under- or over-investing in risk-reducing policies, depending on the characteristics of the problem, implying significant volatility in the policy response. This type of response provides at least three challenges to society: policy cycles where implementation lags behind the actual change in risk, a lock-in to inefficient technologies and additional costs. Finally, this paper addresses the question of how the above-mentioned challenges can be managed through proper risk communication.     

What role for social scientists in risk expertise?

When it comes to risks – health and environmental risks, like those linked to the use of nanotechnologies, pesticides, etc. – three main groups of actors are easily identified, brought together through boundary organisations such as environmental and sanitary risk agencies: the natural and technical scientists, who provide their expertise to assess risks (especially toxicologists, epidemiologists and microbiologists); the policy makers, who take decisions regarding risk management and risk regulation; the lay public, who are more and more involved in participatory frameworks. Sometimes three other groups of actors are added: the ‘economists’ who can for instance conduct cost–benefit assessments or multi-criteria analyses (especially ecological economists, public economists, political economists and social economists); the ‘philosophers’/‘ethicists’ who can use ethics to highlight moral choices and responsibilities in face of risks; and the ‘jurists’/‘legal experts’ who can justify authorisation or interdiction according to law. Inversely, there is a group of actors which is not clearly identified, that of social scientists, even though a considerable quantity of social science knowledge on risk has been produced. Why is there such a discrepancy? This article, based on a critical review of the literature, aims to make sense of the fuzziness surrounding the involvement of social scientists when it comes to risk expertise. The article shows that one reason for this puzzling situation is to be found in the gap between what social scientists often want to do when they are called in as risk experts and what natural scientists and public policy makers actually expect from them.     

The Third Policeman: ‘The true and fair view’, language and the habitus of accounting

This paper explores the role and context of the ‘true and fair view’ (‘TFV’) in accounting and auditing. Utilising the work of Bourdieu as a lens, the paper argues that the world of the TFV is a subjective world with which we think we are objectively familiar. Bourdieu's ‘practical theory’ of habitus suggests that the TFV is shaped by the practice of ‘native virtuosos’ who have a ‘feel for the game’. The paper argues that the conceptualisation of the TFV privileges practice and authenticates the accounting habitus. Hence, whilst language maintains and reinforces social structures, it is in turn created by the routines of practice. By dominating the declaration of the TFV, the auditor effectively reinforces the status quo and the constitution of hierarchy and inequity that exists in the accounting field: the TFV, in Bourdieu's terms, ‘becomes what they are’.     

Pitching research: ‘qualitative cousins’ and the ‘extended family’

This study has two related goals – one very specific and one more general. The specific goal is to constructively engage with Lodhia (2017) on the issue of whether and to what extent ‘qualitative cousins’ are well served by Faff's (2015) original pitching research (PR) template. Using this ‘cousins’ focus as a primer, the more general goal is to update the agenda created by Faff (2015) and in so doing, explore the ‘extended family’ of PR work/resources now available.     

Complexities of Productivity Policies in the Finnish Public Sector: Knowing How to Do More with Less?

This paper examines public sector productivity policies as complexities between what is ‘known’ in policy principles and what is ‘done’ in everyday policy practice. Such complexities are explored in two productivity policy cases within Finnish local government: municipal amalgamations, and the low‐threshold concept of healthcare service. Utilising quantitative and qualitative data from Finnish local government the paper demonstrates the tensions between productivity policy principles, interpretations for productivity improvement (‘knowing’) and final outcomes for actually applying (‘doing’) productivity policy. The paper argues in favour of a new understanding for the research and practice of public policy and management.     

Post-normal science in postnormal times

Post-normal science (PNS) was a herald of postnormal times. For Functowicz and Ravetz contemporary issues in which ‘facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent’ necessitate PNS. PNS deals with the postnormal character of contemporary challenges by bringing the contextualised insights of non-scientific stakeholders to bear through the formulation of ‘extended facts’. However, while the contextual content of ‘extended facts’ caters to the indeterminate character of postnormal issues this remains in tension with an implicit assumption that outcomes reflect the quality of the ‘facts’ informing them. This paper takes the claim that postnormal times involves ‘that we abandon…ideas of ‘control and management” seriously by arguing that science should be the servant of outcomes framed in, primarily, societal terms, rather than the other way around. This argument is illustrated using the example of fashioning an effective response to climate change.     

Have Canada,Japan and Switzerland Adopted IFRS?

Although many countries have passed laws to require the use of ‘IFRS as issued by the IASB’ for certain types of financial reporting, that is not the typical approach to adoption of IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) in major developed countries. This paper uses Australia and Pakistan as examples of minor and major adjustments to the content of IFRS. Then it uses Canada as an example of restricted scope of mandatory application of IFRS. This is compared to extensive voluntary adoption in Switzerland and increasing voluntary adoption in Japan. The paper asks what ‘adoption’ means in the context of Canada, Japan and Switzerland. Finally, the paper looks at how companies in many countries limit the potential value of international comparability by not affirming compliance with ‘IFRS as issued by the IASB’ even when they achieve it.     

Last look

In over-the-counter markets, a trader typically sources indicative quotes from a number of competing liquidity providers, and then sends a deal request on the best available price for consideration by the originating liquidity provider. Due to the communication and processing latencies involved in this negotiation, and in a continuously evolving market, the price may have moved by the time the liquidity provider considers the trader’s request. At what point has the price moved too far away from the quote originally shown for the liquidity provider to reject the deal request? Or perhaps the request can still be accepted but only on a revised rate? ‘Last look’ is the process that makes this decision, i.e. it determines whether to accept—and if so at what rate—or reject a trader’s deal request subject to the constraints of an agreed trading protocol. In this paper, I study how the execution risk and transaction costs faced by the trader are influenced by the last look logic and choice of trading protocol. I distinguish between various ‘symmetric’ and ‘asymmetric’ last look designs and consider trading protocols that differ on whether, and if so to what extent, price improvements and slippage can be passed on to the trader. All this is done within a unified framework that allows for a detailed comparative analysis. I present two main findings. Firstly, the choice of last look design and trading protocol determines the degree of execution risk inherent in the process, but the effective transaction costs borne by the trader need not be affected by it. Secondly, when a trader adversely selects the liquidity provider she chooses to deal with, the distinction between the different symmetric and asymmetric last look designs fades and the primary driver of execution risk is the choice of trading protocol.     

Back to basics: What do we mean by environmental (and social) accounting and what is it for?—A reaction to Thornton

This paper seeks to explore whether mainstream financial accounting when it appears to genuflect to the ‘environment’ actually has anything substantive do with – or to say about – the natural world. It seems important to remember that conventional financial accounting is a predominantly economic – and not very internally logical – practice which has no substantive conceptual space for environmental or social matters per se. It has no space for what Thielemann calls ‘market alien values’ – values such as environmental concern. The paper re-examines why we might account at all and revisits why accounts which explicitly recognise environmental (and social) issues can be potentially very important indeed. What seems clear is that whilst any account that sought to reflect environmental and social exigencies might choose to use the technologies of accounting – notably debits and credits – there is no essential reason why they must do so. If we wish to account for an environment, we almost certainly would not start with the somewhat bizarre and tortured foundations of conventional financial accounting.     

Welcome to postnormal times

All that was ‘normal’ has now evaporated; we have entered postnormal times, the in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have not yet emerged, and nothing really makes sense. To have any notion of a viable future, we must grasp the significance of this period of transition which is characterised by three c's: complexity, chaos and contradictions. These forces propel and sustain postnormal times leading to uncertainty and different types of ignorance that make decision-making problematic and increase risks to individuals, society and the planet. Postnormal times demands, this paper argues, that we abandon the ideas of ‘control and management’, and rethink the cherished notions of progress, modernisation and efficiency. The way forward must be based on virtues of humility, modesty and accountability, the indispensible requirement of living with uncertainty, complexity and ignorance. We will have to imagine ourselves out of postnormal times and into a new age of normalcy—with an ethical compass and a broad spectrum of imaginations from the rich diversity of human cultures.     

Twitter Mining for Discovery,Prediction and Causality: Applications and Methodologies

Twitter has found substantial use in a number of settings. For example, Twitter played a major role in the ‘Arab Spring’ and has been adopted by a large number of the Fortune 100. All of these and other events have led to a large database of Twitter tweets that has attracted the attention of a number of companies and researchers through what has become known as ‘Twitter mining’ (also known as ‘TwitterMining’). This paper analyses some of the approaches used to gather information and knowledge from Twitter for Twitter mining. In addition, this paper reviews a number of the applications that employ Twitter Mining, investigating Twitter information for prediction, discovery and as an informational basis of causation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Creative Inquiry: Confronting the challenges of scholarship in the 21st century

It is becoming increasingly apparent that creativity and imagination are key to envisioning alternatives to the problems of postnormal times. At the same time, educational institutions all over the globe are still mired in assumptions from the machine/industrial age, preparing students for reproduction and conformity rather than creativity. This article outlines the philosophical foundations of an educational approach in which creativity is central to scholarship, where learners move from being consumers to creators and from bystanders to participants in the postnormal dance of knowledge.