数据挖掘及其在商业银行中的应用

本文对数据挖掘的基本原理作了阐述,分析了数据挖掘的流程及主要功能,介绍了数据挖掘工具的算法和特点,并结合具体实例说明了数据挖掘在商业银行的应用。     

Lessons from global modelling and modellers

Two key lessons arising from ten years of global modelling are, first, that there are indeed lessons to be learned—eg ‘business as usual’ is not a viable world future, but the will to change economic, political and social structures could indeed create a decent and sustainable standard of living for all; second, many of the lessons are fairly obvious, but there is a great reluctance, even amongst global modellers, to take them into account—eg the real-world importance of politics is rarely represented in models, or the need to take great care not to mislead when publicizing results.     

Modellers and politicians

The value of global modelling has been severely restricted by poor appreciation of the constraints under which governments and politicians operate. Equally, the value of governments and politicians has been severely restricted by largely ignoring the very real but less immediate problems tackled by modellers. Modellers should try to influence the political agenda through direct, two-way interaction with politicians, and through addressing the electorate.     

An investigation of the ethical decision-making process across varying cultures

This study examines the influence of dimensions of culture on the ethical decision process. Do various cultures perceive the ethical dilemma differently? Do these cultures prefer different types of actions? Do these cultures perceive the role of the accountant differently in response to the consequences? This study has a broad scope of countries (nine), which allows richer contrasts of cultural dimensions. The three aspects of the ethical decision-making process (perceived dilemma, perceived actions, and perceived consequences) are analyzed rather than asking the respondent to make an ethical judgement. Accounting systems adopted by countries reflect culture, profession, and industry. The responses from countries with different accounting systems is analyzed. The findings of this study will provide practitioners as well as academics insight into the harmonization of accounting standards. Research about ethical problems may help accountants anticipate and predict problems that might occur and identify referent countries for solutions to these problems. These findings will also be useful to auditors and accountants designing training programs for multicountry practices.     

Global modelling revisited

Reasons for the great impact of World Dynamics and Limits to Growth include their addressing the correct audience (the public), and the ability of systems dynamics clearly to handle and communicate information on complex and often little understood areas. Modelling projects should usually be global or national (not regional), draw heavily on mental and not just written and numerical databases, and have time horizons of perhaps 100 years. Sadly, critics of Worlds 2 and 3 have yet to come to grips with the fundamental messages presented there, although these messages are becoming increasingly vital.     

Global 2000: Radar for the ship of state

The way the US Global 2000 report has (and, especially, has not) been reacted to and publicly debated illustrates many fundamental problems in developing workable and efficient radar for the ship of state. The text and footnotes draw attention to eg conflicting assumptions in different agencies, or the superficial but unchallenged criticisms of analyses by senior government officials. Many important principles are not even addressed.     

软件工程专业静态网页制作课程教学内容改革

静态网页制作课程是软件工程专业的一门专业基础课,目前该课程的教学内容主要是讲解所见即所得软件的操作,缺乏对HTML标签语言和CSS样式的深入讲解,缺乏对后续课程的支撑,同时也与当今主流的网页制作技术脱节.本文从该专业的课程体系架构出发,提出了以HTML和CSS为主,可视化编辑软件为辅的教学内容改革方案.     

区间数信息下的风险投资群决策评价研究

随着中国风险投资行业不断扩张,为了避免高风险,需要多位决策人员共同参与投资项目的评价。而决策人员面对复杂系统更适合以区间数给出评价。本文提出风险投资的3个评价指标,运用粒子群算法集结区间数信息,构建群决策全局最优偏好矩阵,采用可能度矩阵和排序向量法确定次序。最后的应用研究结果表明,该方法具有一定的可行性和科学性,有利于风险投资项目评价的发展。     

Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exists) to be revealed by the first move, the experiment was implemented via the Internet on a subset of the University of Tilburg's ongoing family expenditure survey panel. The advantages of using such a set of subjects for the experiment are twofold: the demographic characteristics of the set are known and therefore demographic inferences can be made; the representativeness of the set is known and therefore inferences about populations can be made. The results suggest that at least 36% of the subjects had behaviour inconsistent with the hypothesis under test: that people formulate plans and then implement them. Interestingly demographic variables are unable to explain the consistency or inconsistency of individuals. One conclusion is that subjects simply make errors. An alternative conclusion, consistent with previous experimental research, is that people are unable to predict their own future decisions. The implications for dynamic theory (particularly relating to savings and pensions decisions) are important.     

Respect for experience and organisational ability to operate in complex and safety critical environments

The role of experience has been shown to be critical for risk management. Yet, few studies have conceptualised and explained the organisational processes that determine how experience informs risk management. We present a case study examining how experience informs the risk-based decisions of employees in a safety critical industry. Data were gathered through 28 semi-structured interviews in a power utility. Experience contributed significantly to risk-based decisions, particularly those involving complex or dynamic risks, across all functional and hierarchical divisions. Further, collective experience between organisational divisions and a widespread respect for experience promoted the sharing of experiential knowledge. This deepened the extent to which experience was incorporated into risk-based decisions and facilitated coordination between operational and strategic risk management. Respect for experience and collective experience are important contributors to organisational ability for adaptive and coordinated behaviour in complex and high risk environments.     

Functional‐dynamic public participation in technological decision‐making: site selection processes of nuclear waste repositories

This study employs the ordered lottery selection approach with field experiment to measure risk attitude of two distinct population groups in China – farmers in Wuhan and freelancers in media and advertising in Beijing. A comparative design was used to reveal the cross-population difference in risk attitude and its affecting factors. The results showed that both groups exhibited constant partial risk aversion and decreasing absolute risk aversion, while the farmers were more risk-averse than the freelancers. The farmer and freelancer respondents demonstrated very different sensitivity to the warming-up games types involving ‘gain-only’ or ‘gain-loss’ while extremely risk-averse respondents in the warming-up games possessed the consistent attitudinal behavior in the formal tests. The comparative experiment revealed that gender and income were two statistically significant factors affecting risk attitude and they appeared to be consistent across the two distinct groups. Surprisingly, respondents’ perceived frequency of risk occurrence was not correlated to their risk attitude. Moreover, the factors of leisure and investment behavior were significantly linked to the freelancers’ risk attitude but not the farmers’. The experiment also found a non-linear relationship between risk attitude and education, and receiving college education was found to be a critical switching point that was significantly linked to respondents’ risk choices. While further research is needed to better understand the governing mechanism in risk attitude, perception, and behavior, this paper tried to link the experimental results to the natural disaster insurance practice in China and discussed their implication to the policy design.