The dynamic effects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach

A structural factor model for 112 US monthly macroeconomic series is used to study the effects of monetary policy. Monetary policy shocks are identified using a standard recursive scheme, in which the impact effects on both industrial production and prices are zero. The main findings are the following. First, the maximal effect on bilateral real exchange rates is observed on impact, so that the “delayed overshooting” puzzle disappears. Second, after a contractionary shock prices fall at all horizons, so that the price puzzle is not there. Finally, monetary policy has a sizable effect on both real and nominal variables.     

The cost of elections: the effects of public sector austerity on electoral integrity and voter engagement

Concerns have been raised that insufficient funding has been affecting the delivery of elections in many countries. This paper presents a case study of England and Wales from 2010–2016. It demonstrates that many local authorities saw major real terms cuts and were increasingly over-budget. Those subject to cuts were less likely to undertake public engagement activities. State efforts to encourage voter participation may therefore be a casualty of austerity.     

Reply to comments on “The association between European materiality estimates and client integrity, culture, and litigation”

The research examines the differences in materiality estimates for a sample of 181 experienced auditors from Big-Six firms located in Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Sweden, The Netherlands, and the UK. We asked each auditor to estimate materiality for a client whose integrity his/her firm rated as either high or low [Ir. Account. Rev. 1 (1994) 1.]. The research found that low client-integrity ratings resulted in lower materiality estimates for the European auditors. The research also indicates that as the cultural construct of Uncertainty Avoidance [Hofstede, G. (1980). Culture's consequences. Beverly Hills: Sage.] increased, materiality estimates also increased. Although one might have anticipated that materiality would decrease with the level of litigation, it, in fact, increased. We also compared the data from the western European countries with the estimates from a group of 83 auditors from the same Big-Six firms located in the United States.¹     

The fed and the term structure: Addressing simultaneity within a structural VAR model

This paper applies a new identification approach to estimate the contemporaneous relation between the term structure and monetary policy within a VAR framework. To achieve identification, we combine high-frequency Treasury futures and fed funds futures data with the VAR methodology. Results indicate that policy actions have a slope effect in the yield curve. We also find that the Fed responds to Treasury yields and that this response is stronger for the short and intermediate rates and less aggressive for long-yields. All estimated parameters are significant and robust to various model specifications.     

The worried, the competitive and the indifferent—Approaches to the future in youth, their structural roots and outcomes in adult life

The article brings together knowledge from future studies, sociology, psychology and social medicine in a study of approaches to the future in youth, their structural roots and outcomes in adult life. Three different approaches are studied: worry, indifference and competitiveness and by use of unique longitudinal data individuals are followed from childhood to middle age. Worry and indifference about the future is positively linked to economic hardship and social problems in the family of origin. Indifference towards the future in adolescence is also related to adverse adult living conditions, such as economic hardship and low educational attainment. A competitive outlook of the future finally, is not linked to living conditions in childhood, but shows a strong and positive relationship to mortality risk up to age 48. Although the mechanism behind this relationship cannot be determined by the present study, type-A-personality is suggested as factor of possible relevance. The study demonstrates how social factors forming young individuals’ life chances also impact the future outlooks of these individuals, and how these outlooks in their turn independently affect adult living conditions.     

Bridging the divide: The rise of the Indian Accountant from 1900 to 1932

The Accountancy and Empire literature is replete with studies in which the salient recurring theme has been that of “otherness”. An alternative interpretation of the colonial encounter is offered in this study of the rise of professional accountancy in India whilst under British rule. The study draws on Cannadine’s theorisation of Ornamentalism (2001), which suggests that class was equally as important as race when it came to contemplating the extra-metropolitan world. We draw on this concept as an aid to understanding why the professionalization trajectory in India was different from other racially-diverse colonies and how high-caste Indians were able to bridge the racial divide and enter professional accountancy during the colonial period. The study draws on archival data to examine the processes put in place to enable the rise of the Indian Accountant and professional organisation under a pervasive British presence. We forward the notion that British perceptions of Indians and Indian accountants were framed by the recognition of caste-class affinities that were not prevalent in other colonies and, in India, accountancy was considered to be a profession suitable for Indians from the higher castes.     

The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence

This paper investigates the effects of oil supply, oil-specific consumption demand, oil inventory demand shocks, and global economic activity shocks on state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation in the US. We use oil shock data following the work of Baumeister and Hamilton (2019) and estimate both linear and non-linear impulse responses using a lag-augmented local projections model in a panel context. Our results from a linear model show that both supply and demand-side oil shocks have a statistically significant impact on both types of inflation. While supply, global economic activity, and demand shocks have a greater impact on tradable inflation, non-tradable inflation responds more strongly to inventory shocks. Further, the non-linear model results provide evidence of heterogeneity in the magnitude and persistence of impact between high- and low-oil dependence regimes. Non-tradable inflation is more sensitive to nearly all components of oil price shocks in the high-oil dependence regime.     

总量型和结构型货币政策工具的选择与搭配——基于结构性去杠杆视角下的分析

本文基于我国34类工业行业的年度数据,识别信贷配置偏向特征对结构性杠杆的影响,以及货币政策应对效应的特征事实:信贷偏向的存在导致不同产权性质企业杠杆变化呈现异质性,这种异质性所产生的结构性杠杆现象因经济周期不同阶段而异,传统总量型货币政策工具难以有效解决结构性杠杆问题。为更深入理解这一现象以及结构性去杠杆下货币政策最优选择问题,本文通过构建一个同时包含信贷配置偏向特征、企业杠杆结构变化特征、总量型与结构型货币政策工具影响特征的DSGE模型进行分析,研究结果表明:总量型货币政策数量工具的宽松操作可以有效应对技术冲击下结构性杠杆问题;总量型工具紧缩资金供给,结合结构型工具定向紧缩,是应对成本推动冲击下结构性高杠杆问题的较好选择;当经济面临风险冲击下结构性杠杆和经济下行并存问题时,需要结构型货币政策数量工具和价格工具同时操作,紧缩国企贷款,同时降低民企融资成本。     

The future of Russian gas exports to East Asia: Feasibility and market implications

For a long time, the Russian government has aimed to diversify gas exports to East Asian countries. This gearing of Russia towards Asia will have great consequences on world energy, the global economy, and geopolitics in the coming years. This paper analyzes the growth potential of Russia's diversification strategy and the impact this policy would have on sales to Europe. As the most likely scenario is for total gas exports to grow at a moderate rate from 2010 to 2030, any increase in sales to Asia could make difficult the raising of exports to Europe. Our thesis is that this trade-off will depend primarily on domestic consumption trends, geographic targeting of investments, and commercial and financial alliances with foreign partners. However, imports from Central Asia, declining exports to Ukraine and Belarus, and Gazprom investments in other gas-producing countries could also affect gas exports and gas distribution among different markets.     

A Time to Scatter Stones,and a Time to Gather Them: The Annual Cycle in Hedge Fund Risk Taking

Analyzing a sample of hedge fund daily returns from Bloomberg, we find a seasonal pattern in their risk taking. During earlier months of a year, poorly performing funds reduce risk. The reduction is stronger for funds with higher management fees, shorter redemption periods, and recently deteriorating performance, consistent with a managerial aversion to early fund liquidation. Toward the end of a year, poorly performing funds gamble for resurrection by increasing risk. It is largely achieved by increasing exposure to market factors, and can be linked to stronger indirect managerial incentives during the second half of a year.     

Explaining co-movements between stock markets: The case of US and Germany

We explain co-movements between stock markets by explicitly considering the distinction between interdependence and contagion. We propose and implement a full-information approach on data for US and Germany to provide answers to the following questions:

(i) Is there long-term interdependence between US and German stock markets?

(ii) Is there short-term interdependence and contagion between US and German stock markets, i.e. do short-term fluctuations of the US share prices spill over to German share prices and is such co-movement unstable over high-volatility episodes?

Our answers are, respectively, no to the first question and yes to the second one.     

The impact of corporate governance on financial performance of Indian and GCC listed firms: An empirical investigation

Corporate governance plays a vital role in creating a corporate culture of consciousness, transparency, and openness. In this context, this paper provides a brief view about the background of corporate governance mechanisms in India and Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries, corporate legal system and monitoring policies laid down by Indian and GCC governments. Furthermore, it analyzes the impact of corporate governance mechanisms on the financial performance of Indian and GCC listed firms. The study uses a sample that consists of 53 non-financial listed companies from India and 53 non-financial listed companies from GCC countries for the period 2009–2016. Results revealed that board accountability (BA) and audit committee (AC) have an insignificant impact on firms' performance measured by ROE and Tobin’s Q. Similarly, transparency and disclosure (TD) have an insignificant negative impact on firms' performance measured by Tobin’s Q. Moreover, the country dummy results show that Indian firms are performing better than Gulf countries ones in terms of corporate governance practices and financial performance. The current study is considered as a battery for further research and studies particularly in India & GCC listed firms in the context of corporate governance and financial performance.     

声誉制度、非正式约束:信用共同体建设的理论与实践——基于天津农村合作银行信用共同体模式的案例研究

作为一种非正式的制度安排,信用共同体在解决银企信息不对称,破解中小企业融资难题方面发挥了重要作用。本文以天津农村合作银行建立的信用共同体为例,介绍了信用共同体的基本模式和特征,并从制度经济学角度加以分析,指出信用共同体的核心是声誉制度,其产生和发展源于我国制度不健全,具有一定的区域性和局部性。从长期看,需要建立更为完善的社会信用体系,才能从根本上解决信息不对称难题。     

The future of small-scale mining: environmental and socioeconomic perspectives

Although small-scale mining provides innumerable benefits to the rural inhabitants and governments of the developing world, its operations have been responsible for a wide range of environmental and socioeconomic complications. This article examines the impacts of small-scale mining, and provides a perspective on the future of the industry. It first describes small-scale mining activity, emphasizing key definitional and locational characteristics. Next, it examines the socioeconomic impacts of the industry, along with its environmental problems. The article concludes by discussing the future of small-scale mining in developing countries.     

Rating Migrations: The Effect of History and Time

We examine the effect of rating history and the passage of time on the rating migration hazard for corporate debt issuers. Controlling for industry effects and the evolution of business and political cycles, the results consistently show that the next change of rating depends more strongly on rating history than it does on the current rating. However, there are significant interactions between the main effects of rating history and the duration of the current rating. The result is substantial decay in the effects of rating history the longer a rating remains unchanged. This decay effect is stronger for downgrades and for ratings in the speculative category.     

中国经济结构性失衡的原因与解决路径——基于投资和消费对经济增长贡献作用的实证分析

近年来投资和消费已成为调节我国宏观经济运行的重要手段,而投资和消费协调与否会直接影响到经济增长的持续性和质量。本文基于中国投资和消费对经济增长贡献作用实证研究基础,得出投资短期拉动效应明显,但长期来看消费拉动效率更高的结论,并提出相应建议。     

Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework

This paper deals with the past, present and future of backcasting. After having reviewed the origin and developments since the 1970s, it is concluded that several varieties can be distinguished and that a shift has been made to broad stakeholder participation and towards a focus on realising follow-up and implementation. A methodological framework for participatory backcasting is proposed consisting of five stages and four groups of tools and methods that can be applied and are necessary in such a framework, while different type of goals are possible. The paper reports on two cases in which participatory backcasting was applied, the Novel Protein Foods project at the Sustainable Technology Programme in the Netherlands and the Nutrition case study of the Sustainable Households (SusHouse) project. The paper concludes that these have resulted in broad stakeholder involvement, sustainable future visions, analyses and construction of follow-up agendas, but that follow-up and impacts are quite different. A research agenda is proposed to compare and evaluate backcasting studies and their impacts after a couple of years, while the future of participatory backcasting is also briefly discussed.     

The volatility dynamics of spot and futures gold prices: Evidence from Russia

We examine the long memory property and structural break in the spot and futures gold volatility in Russia from 2008 through 2013. We find strong evidence of long memory in the volatility of both spot and futures gold series. The break dates are associated with the recent global financial crisis. Moreover, we investigate the volatility spillover effect between the Russian spot and futures gold markets using the corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation model (cDCC). The findings show relatively high level of conditional correlation between spot and futures gold returns. This outcome decreases the portfolio diversification benefits for gold investors.     

Integration of financial and management accounting systems: The mediating influence of a consistent financial language on controllership effectiveness

Two fundamental options exist for management accounting system (MAS) design: Either financial records can be used as a database for management accounting (integrated accounting system design), or the MAS can be based upon a separate system, i.e., a third set of books beside financial and tax accounting records. Since the 1990s, many German-speaking firms have changed from the second to the first option, which has instigated a highly controversial debate.Our paper contributes to this debate by empirically analyzing (1) whether the integration of financial and management accounting has a positive impact on controllership effectiveness, and (2) what causal inferences relate both variables. We use structural equation modelling for a sample of 149 dyads surveyed from German top 1500 firms. We identify no significant effect of the technical aspects of MAS integration, but a fully mediating influence of a consistent financial language on controllership effectiveness. Our results thus imply that consistency with financial reporting is an important property of MAS design from management's point of view.